Yesterday’s surprise unveiling of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Player List for 2012/13 already has the site awash with Rate My Teams (RMT) while we await the game’s official launch. Having taken some time to soak in what’s on offer, we’re rolling out a thorough three-part analysis of the valuations, looking at the options from cheap to costly, with a punt or two also thrown in for good measure. We start, as all good teams do, at the back, with an examination of the options in goal and amongst the defenders…
The Goalkeepers
Scouring the bargain basement for cheap keeper rotation possibilities, it’s immediately clear that we’re be starting our search from 4.5 and upwards. Last term we had the likes of Michel Vorm as a 4.0 priced wonder but this time round, every option at that cost is no more than a bench-warmer. Further frustrating is the fact that only five keepers at 4.5 are nailed-on first-team picks – Jussi Jaaskelainen, John Ruddy, Rob Green, Kelvin Davis and Adam Federici.
In the 5.0 range, Sunderland’s Simon Mignolet looks a decent prospect; the Belgian racked up 121 points from 29 appearances in 2011/12, with 11 clean sheets accrued. Of all keepers in the 5.0 bracket, Ben Foster had the most successful season last time round – the West Brom keeper racked up 140 points, with 109 saves boosting his haul, though question marks hang over his potential next season after the departure of Roy Hodgson.
Shay Given also comes in at 5.0 but, while many would assume he can hardly do worse than last season’s total of 96, new Villa boss Paul Lambert is hardly renowned for defensive-minded tactics; Norwich shipped 66 goals last term under his guidance. Mark Schwarzer perhaps looks a better bet at a similar value. Further up the price ladder, much depends on how you plan to use you budget; Newcastle’s Tim Krul looks the most likely bet at 5.5, with doubts over whether Michel Vorm can replicate last term’s superb form under new boss Michael Laudrup, while Fantasy managers will be wary of Tim Howard, given Everton’s propensity for slow starts to the season.
David De Gea is already an RMT favourite at 6.0; if the Spaniard can improve on his 29 starts last time out, his value as United’s number one looks enticing for those willing to pick up a more expensive keeper. It will be interesting to see if De Gea’s valuation and the early interest in him leads to a shift from the popular “twin cheap keeper” template. A heavy-hitter in goal could well see many a squad go into the season with a thrifty set of defenders, with the United slot perhaps already occupied.
Elsewhere, Pepe Reina also has potential at the same price if Liverpool can replicate Swansea’s clean sheet returns under Brendan Rodgers, while Joe Hart’s 7.0 valuation is likely to deter many, with cheaper options in the City backline.
The Defenders
The 4.0 price range offers us as handful of first-team options to consider, mainly from the promoted clubs. West Ham duo George McCartney and Guy Demel could be worth consideration; the former has just completed a permanent deal after spending last season on loan, while the latter struggled with injury in 2011/12 – if fit, he could well make the right-back slot his own. Elsewhere, Jose Fonte was nailed-on for Southampton last season, as was Kaspars Gorkss at Reading, though the purchase of Adrian Mariappa casts doubts over the Royals likely starters. The Norwich backline offers us options under new boss Chris Hughton, with left-back Marc Tierney perhaps the stand-out in this bracket for the Canaries.
Just a notch up, at 4.5, there are options aplenty for us to consider for our defences. Wigan’s Maynor Figueroa is nailed-on for the Latics and started all but one of their league games last term, while James Tomkins is a dead-cert to feature in the heart of the West Ham back-four. Sunderland new boy Carlos Cuellar is a tempting offer if he can nail down a regular role following his move from Aston Villa, while Kyle Naughton is one to watch if his mooted move to Villa from Spurs goes through. The appeal of Ian Harte has taken a considerable dent after Nicky Shorey’s arrival at Reading – the former tends to hog free-kicks and also has spot-kick duties in the bag but, with his game time at left-back now called into question, snapping up his services comes with plenty risk attached.
Stoke’s regular left-back Marc Wilson affords us a cheap route into Tony Pulis’ defence, while Southampton pair Danny Fox and Jos Hooiveld offer plenty attacking threat, with the former having a fair share of corner kicks, too. The QPR backline could well prove decent value, with Mark Hughes’ side particularly strong at Loftus Road last term; on-loan United man Fabio is the pick of the bunch. Carl Jenkinson should start the season at right-back for Arsenal in light of Bacary Sagna’s broken leg, while Matt Lowton and Eric Lichaj are ones to watch if they can nail down a starting role at Villa.
Further up the price bracket at 5.0, Liam Ridgewell was the most impressive performer for West Brom last time out – he averaged 4.7 points per game after moving from Birmingham in January. The Swansea first-choice backline are all similarly priced, though Ashley Williams picked up more points than any of his defensive colleagues last term. Fabricio Coloccini is the most consistent choice from Newcastle in terms of game time, though Steven Taylor and Davide Santon could potentially outscore their skipper if they can avoid injury and rotation respectively. There are plenty of options from Sunderland at this price, though the likes of Phil Bardsley will reduce in appeal if Cuellar can nail down a starting role, while Brede Hangeland is the stand-out option at the back for Fulham here.
As we further into the more expensive area of investment, both Younes Kaboul and Rafael, at 5.5 apiece, may well prove to be decent punts, bearing in mind their fellow defenders at Spurs and United are far more costly – of the two, Kaboul looks guaranteed more game time but if the Brazilian can nail down the right-back role at Old Trafford, he could be strong value. Robert Huth is down from last season’s starting price of 6.0 but, despite poor returns, the stats confirm he continues to offer consistent goal threat.
With Vincent Kompany coming in at 7.5 and so much uncertainty over the full-back area at Man City, Joleon Lescott is perhaps the best route into the champions’ defence. At 6.5, the former Everton man offers more guaranteed game time than Gael Clichy and co, though the attacking potential from the full-backs in enticing at 6.0. Jose Enrique and Martin Skrtel, both at 6.0, are the cheapest options in a Liverpool defence hoping to benefit from the Brendan Rodgers effect, while Ashley Cole’s 6.5 price and guaranteed game time at Chelsea seems set to pick up plenty investment. In spite of their 7.0 price tags, Thomas Vermaelen, Nemanja Vidic and Leighton Baines all have the attacking potential to provide us with substantial returns and are all more than capable of double figure points hauls in almost any given Gameweek.
As mentioned, defensive strategies could well depend on the spending in goal – if De Gea’s popularity translates into initial purchases, this could see a shift in the defensive strategy towards even greater emphasis on mid-price and budget options.
We’ll follow this guide up with a look at the midfielders next – a key area in recent seasons, despite the collapse of the much heralded Ronaldo/Lampard/Gerrard “holy trinity” of seasons gone by.
