Our third pre-season selection guide finds us turning to the attacking areas of the squad and, arguably, the most vital component – the midfield.
While our options up front are normally dictated by one or two obvious targets, in the middle of the park, the slate is clean and all five places are arguably up for grabs. In addition, the midfield has traditionally been a breeding ground for Fantasy value: make the right decisions at the right time with selections here and it can shape your season.
With forwards holding the top three rankings in the FPL last season, the temptation will be to overlook the heavy-hitters in midfield, ensuring that funds are reserved to keep the front line well stocked. However, the emergence of Clint Dempsey and Gareth Bale as the top two midfielders, confirmed that this area of our squads can be home to “breakthrough” players – those who can offer strong and regular returns for well below the price of our main targets up front.
Gylfi Sigurdsson’s impact offers another example of the value that can be garnered from shrewd midfield acquisitions. Indeed, of all the areas within our Fantasy squads, the midfield appears to be the most prosperous region when hunting for buried treasure. It’s likely we’ll see a player from the 7.0 bracket or below emerge as a 150+ point player – the trick, of course, to find them early in order to maximise their differential potential and purchase them at a bargain price before the bandwagon accelerates.
Attacking Coverage
In terms of strategy, the right balance between heavy-hitters, mid-price and budget remains key. In the same way as you would look to compile your defence alongside your goalkeeper selection, it makes perfect sense to combine your attacking players into one pool.
The objective here is the best possible coverage of those teams most likely to deliver the greatest number of goals in any given window of fixtures. That window can either be across the season as a whole (if you’re adopting a hands-off approach to your team) or, more likely, a smaller period of Gameweeks.
There are merits in doubling up on assets from one team – by acquiring a forward and a midfielder: Wayne Rooney and Antonio Valencia or perhaps Sergio Aguero and David Silva, will be high on the watchlist. While such combinations can lead to an avalanche of returns if the formbook holds true, it’s often wise to spread the risk and cover a group of teams who are all well positioned to fetch goals over their forthcoming fixtures.
The first task, then, is to identify the teams you’ll want to cover based on their potential for goals. There are obvious sources – United and City will surely be amongst the top scorers and are almost fixture proof. Spurs are another side who, with Andre Villas-Boas at the reins, look set to rely on attacking verve to balance defensive frailties. You can place Arsenal and, to an extent, Chelsea in the same category.
We have five rather obvious sources of high goals potential there, which have to be considered when selecting your attacking players. The problem is, of course, their assets all demand the top Fantasy fees.
The current uncertainty surrounding Robin Van Persie’s future at the Emirates perhaps allows us to temporarily shelve plans for Arsenal coverage. The Dutchman is out of the equation as an acquisition right now and, with the prospect of the Gunners lining up without their inspirational skipper, stock in the likes of Theo Walcott, Mikel Arteta and new arrivals Oliver Giroud and Lukas Podolski has fallen.
That still leaves Spurs and Chelsea and, given their opening fixtures, both appear to scream for our attention. Chelsea have the double Gameweek that will likely ensure that either a midfielder or Fernando Torres find their way into our squads, while Spurs have a Michelin star menu of attacking midfielders, all of whom look capable of delivering double figures for goals or assists.
Right now then, I personally favour attempting to cover United, City, Chelsea and Spurs with four of the eight midfield/forward selections in my squad. This offers coverage of four of the five top attacking sides, although it does restrict the freedom I’ll have in the mid-price markets – making it more likely that I’ll need to turn to budget assets.
Splitting the Attacking Pool
Once you have decided on the teams you wish to cover, you then have to consider the options of splitting them across your midfielders and forwards. Right now, the Spurs forward line is very much in question so, for me, that points to a midfielder.
As for Chelsea, I’m wary of Eden Hazard’s impact – if he explodes, I want to be in a position to get on board. Juan Mata, or even Frank Lampard, look safer initial acquisitions but with similar price tags, the transfer to Hazard can be made in one step should the Belgian come good.
Conveniently, that leaves both United and City to cover up front – the candidates are pretty obvious here, although the Aguero vs Carlos Tevez debate is gathering pace given the price difference (11.5 vs 9.0). There’s the option to double up on Chelsea with Torres, of course, but will look at that further in our next guide.
Crucially, it’s worth considering your FPL captain at this point. If you have both Wayne Rooney and Sergio Aguero up front, you have a rotating pair who will always offer you a home fixture. If you just have one of that duo, it’s worth consulting the fixtures to analyse your captain options when they are away from home. Last season both Rooney and Aguero demonstrated a lull in output on the road – you may therefore need your heavy-hitting midfielders to step up in these weeks.
In the short-term, as well as Everton away in Gameweek 1 (which can be served by the obvious double Gameweek captain from Chelsea), Rooney visits Liverpool and Newcastle in Gameweeks 5 and 7 respectively. In both cases, Chelsea and Spurs serve up strong home matches – potentially offering a viable alternative for the armband from midfield. Problem solved if you’ve spent on the Chelsea and Spurs midfields.
Panning Mid Price Gold
While the importance of heavy-hitters is obvious, neglecting the mid-price midfielders can be dangerous. When you consider that the top scoring midfielder of last season, Clint Dempsey, was initially valued at 8.5, you begin to realise two things: the amount of talent in this position is plentiful, while the mid-price can often hide gems which can easily edge their way into the heavy-hitter bracket.
Dempsey’s outstanding season has, inevitably, seen his initial price hiked this term. Doubts on his future and his ability to repeat the numbers has created an air of skepticism surrounding him as a Fantasy asset – rightly or wrongly.
It means that most will be scanning below Dempsey’s bracket for those midfielders who could possibly break out of the mid-price and threaten the likes of Silva and Bale.
Both Steven Pienaar and James McClean look generous at 6.5 respectively and, based on last season’s form, they could both push double figures for either goals or assists. Similarly, Charles N’Zogbia is a proven Fantasy talent whose flame could well be reignited under Paul Lambert’s brand attacking of football. Adel Taarabt, having had a season to settle in the top flight and secure his future at Loftus Road, is another player who is rightly tempting investment with a tag of just 6.0.
Those are all worthy talents, but, in all cases, we’re dealing with “ifs” and “maybes”. While we saw an array of mid-price talent come good last season – Jon Walters, Scott Sinclair, Victor Moses amongst them, they all had spells where fixtures and form played their part in improved output.
The mid-price bracket are perhaps best suited to be rotated in and out of our squads, then. These players can be shuffled with fixtures and form rather than adopted as mainstays to be kept throughout the season.
While the treasure is often buried in the mid-price range, it’s arguably more of a gamble to stock up in this bracket and neglect a couple of heavy-hitters. Despite inevitable patches of blanks, the likes of David Silva, Bale and Mata seem more likely to deliver over a 38 Gameweek period – should they explode early, they could quickly climb in price and leave you clutching to the hope that your faith in the inconsistent mid-price is repaid.
Filling the Gaps With Budget
If you have decided on your heavy-hitter(s) and analysed the fixtures to bring in a couple of mid-price assets to be rotated in and out throughout the season, you’ll now be turning to the budget midfielder to complete the picture. Unless, of course, you’re opting for cheaper forwards.
Arguably, budget midfielders can have a longer shelf life than the mid price. While the likes of Moses and Nathan Dyer (both 5.0 last term) failed to sustain form over 38 weeks, they nonetheless provided valuable input when rotated in from the bench, without burning a hole in the budget. This is the minimum requirement from a player in the 4.5 – 5.0 bracket.
You need assured starts, with the potential to deliver when called upon. Given that you can afford to keep them around longer, choosing options that rotate home and away is a valid tactic. You’re far more likely to feel comfortable rotating your budget midfielder to the bench, than a player priced 6.5 or above. Much depends on the formation you’re likely to play, week in, week out but, in the popular 3-4-3 option, one mid price midfielder with two rotating budget options, can suffice.
If you’re forced to consider a budget forward, again, you can look to analyse fixtures to work out how your cheap attacking players rotate in tandem to always give you at least one option with a home or favourable fixture.
Unless I’m absolutely dead set on a player, the next batch of fixtures, with the Season Ticker again invaluable, is always my starting point for selection. Regardless of the cash I’m shelling out, I want to be sure that I’m not going to flinch at turning to every player in my squad should I need too. Personally I struggle to come to terms with the tactic of selecting benchwarmers who may save 0.5, but look destined to finish the season with a handful of minutes played. To my mind, that policy can eventually catch up with you.
Based on the opening six Gameweeks, immediately both Chelsea and Spurs are confirmed as strong attacking options in the top price bracket. Aston Villa and Swansea are early considerations for mid-price assets, while West Ham’s midfield also warrants attention – at least for the first couple of months.
That offers a starting point – the inclusion of Chelsea and Spurs assets in midfield fills two spots. Swansea’s Scott Sinclair and maybe Michu, look favourable routes, with Villa’s Charles N’Zogbia or Stephen Ireland, clearly more of a gamble if I’m to trust in Paul Lambert’s tactics and a rather impressive pre-season record. Taarabt or even Junior Hoilett look like bargains and have a strong opening, which dips in Gameweeks 3, 4 and 5.
I’ll perhaps look to Sunderland’s James McClean to come in at this point, keeping 0.5 in the bank to allow for that transfer, if QPR fail to deliver and Sunderland look like finding goals.
As for the budget options, it’s hard to ignore West Ham’s Mark Noble given his spot-kick duties and assured starts. He rotates well with Wigan’s Shaun Maloney, another penalty taker sitting in the 5.0 bracket. If I need to dip below 5.0, I can look to grab Reading’s Danny Guthrie for the double Gameweek and see if he can stick around – at 4.5 he should, at the very least, offer regular starts.
That all sounded awfully simple and, as we know, it’s far from that. However, once your settled on three to four heavy hitters in your midfield and attack, the options are narrowed in terms of budget and you can then start to use fixtures to whittle them down further.
Two heavy-hitters, a mid-price prospect and a couple of budget options allow for flexibility but it’s just one of many configurations. That setup allows for heavy investment amongst the forwards, opening up the possibility of acquiring both Rooney and Aguero/Tevez. There will be those, however, who find more comfort in mid-price forwards such as Papiss Cisse and Nikaca Jelavic, freeing funds to explore richer midfield assets.
Above all, the midfield needs to work alongside your forward line, both in terms of budget and coverage – it can be the priority, or play second fiddle, but a good blend and the ability to react to form and worthy bandwagons is key.
Be prepared, however: the best laid plans can quickly be torn in two, particularly when we’re at the mercy of the whims of a certain Dutch striker.
