[sbu_large_image] Spot the Differential
22 February 2013 2832 comments
Paul Paul
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Friday evening comes to a close with our regular rundown of a trio of overlooked contenders. A couple of our protagonists have flattered to deceive this season, while the other has impressed in his debut campaign in the Premier League. The one thing all three have in common, though, is they look key to their respective side’s chances of success over the remaining three months of the season.

Nani

After racking up 198 and 157 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points in the last couple of seasons, Nani had finally established himself as a bone fide Fantasy asset after three frustrating campaigns at Old Trafford. Goals, assists and bonus points arrived in abundance as the United winger proved a regular source of points and, as the current campaign got underway, more of the same was expected.

Fair to say, then, that this time round has been dismal – one goal and two assists over nine appearances, with a single start since Gameweek 6, has seen Nani’s price plummet to 8.2. Indeed, with both Antonio Valencia and Shinji Kagawa failing to impress, the United midfield has been a huge source of Fantasy frustration this time round. Climbing off the bench in last Monday’s FA Cup win over Reading, though, Nani served a reminder of his capabilities with a goal and assist in the 2-1 win and, with his contract set to expire next year, Sir Alex Ferguson has gone out his way to lavish praise upon the Portuguese star, saying:

“Definitely we want to keep him. He’s one of the best match-winners in the game and I’m including the whole of Europe. He wants guaranteed first-team football but he can guarantee that, his performance the other night can guarantee that. We’re trying our best because he’s such a match-winning player and capable of scoring the most incredible goals.”

With his side still battling for silverware on three fronts, Ferguson could be set to call upon Nani with a little more regularity as he looks to utilise his squad to maximum effect. Having established a 12 point gap over City, United certainly have a little leeway to rest and rotate, giving the winger a platform to perform once again. Coming in at 8.7 in the Sky Sports game, he’s a little more expensive than in FPL but with an ownership of just over 1% in both games, Nani could be a real differential for tomorrow’s match with QPR and beyond for those Fantasy managers willing to take a punt on a player with proven Premier League pedigree.

Arouna Kone

Despite a four-Gameweek absence with Ivory Coast for the African Cup of Nations last month, Kone remains Wigan’s top scoring FPL player on 87 points– a clear indication of how crucial he is to their chances of survival. Having been eased back into the side with a second-half sub role last time out, Kone led the line against Huddersfield in last weekend’s FA Cup Fifth Round clash and bagged a brace in a comfortable 4-1 win.

Up next for Roberto Martinez’s side is a proverbial six-pointer at fellow-strugglers Reading tomorrow afternoon. Bearing in mind their hosts have conceded in each of their last six, the Latics will be optimistic heading to the Madejski – more so when you consider Kone’s exploits on the road. Prior to leaving for the ACoN, he had produced attacking returns in each of his last three away appearances, with a goal and assist at Villa following on from an assist away to Norwich and a strike at Everton; that’s 23 points across that trio of fixtures.

Coming in at 6.5 in FPL and 7.7 in the Sky Sports game, Kone has flown firmly under the radar with a FPL ownership of just 0.5%. If Martinez is to engineer another great escape this season, though, there’s a high chance he’ll be leaning heavily on the former Levante forward to fire the Latics to safety.

Papiss Cisse

Similar to Nani, his performances have been hugely underwhelming this term – more so, perhaps, given he’s started 23 of Newcastle’s matches thus far. Cisse has notched just five times in 1919 minutes compared to 13 strikes in 1106 minutes in the latter half of the previous season but with Demba Ba now out the picture, there’s still hope he will rediscover his 2011/12 form.

Cisse has notched twice in the last six matches for the Magpies and, handed the lone forward role once again, welcomes Southampton to St James’ Park this Sunday in a crucial battle near the foot of the table. With his side just four points clear of the drop zone, Alan Pardew will be looking to replicate the result of his side’s previous home match, which harvested a 3-2 win over Chelsea. Clearly, then, Cisse has plenty to play for and also has game time guaranteed – in addition, Newcastle’s Gameweek 29 fixture, at home to Stoke, is not in question; a factor that may affect some Fantasy managers’ transfer policy, with a handful of clubs facing the possibility of a blank that weekend.

Coming in at 8.8 in FPL and 9.3 in the Sky Sports game, he doesn’t come cheap but if he can hit even half the heights of the previous campaign over the remaining 12 Gameweeks, Cisse could still be one to watch.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

  1. Dynamic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Tw, according to totalfpl the chances of clean sheets are

    Stoke 22%
    Norwich 21%
    Sunderland 28%
    Reading 29%

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    1. FFAdviser
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Here you can see my prognostic for a clean sheet... not chances, but a formula that gives me the strength to a clean sheet:
      http://fantasyfootballadviser.blogspot.com/2013/02/gameweek-27-preview.html

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    2. tw
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      cheers! not much in it i see

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    3. Blind
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      According to Betfair's odds:

      Stoke 4.1
      Norwich 4.5
      Sunderland 4.8
      Reading 4.0

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  2. The Rock
    • 16 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Pulis will hardly throw Wilson in at the deep end after 4 months out and start him would he?

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    1. Kostja
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      He could, at least hes last comments seemed to suggest so. He has had like 3 or 4 reserve games, so it is not like he is totally unprepared

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    2. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      He's gotta start somewhere innit.

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    3. SUPERMAN
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      I believe he will start

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  3. Ginkapo FPL
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    For all those debating point hits for defenders.

    Kolarov might play this week and we all know that is worth at least a 4 pt hit. If not an 8 pt hit.

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    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      (c)

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      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        +1

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    2. Corkyote FFS CWC Champion 2…
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      At last some sense 😉

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    3. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      The week i bought him in: http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/184/event-history/7/ 😉

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      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Nobody likes you

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        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          Chu yung Ping pong is a better poster than you.

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          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 15 days ago

            Just leave GB, just leave

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            1. Ginkapo FPL
              • 14 Years
              13 years, 15 days ago

              Dont let the door hit you on the way out

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              1. Piggs Boson
                • 14 Years
                13 years, 15 days ago

                Okay, i'm off 🙁

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                1. Ginkapo FPL
                  • 14 Years
                  13 years, 15 days ago

                  GOOD

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    4. tw
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      😀

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  4. Les Bleus
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Sell Davies for 4.4, in which case I have 4.5 for a defender so who do I get? Or do I bench Davies this week and play Demel(TOT) and save the FT? Thanks

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  5. yanky
    • 16 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    will cameron & demel both play? thats the only way i can field 11- unsure if i should take a hit for a defender…davies and 3.5m in bench and want to be cautious of gw29

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    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      If the defender you bring in gets a clean sheet, it means you will have made a profit of 2 points.

      Worth the risk for those 2 points?

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      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Clean sheets arent exactly likely

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    2. the axolotl
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      go with 9/10. no great shakes

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    3. Fancy Feet
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      I have the same problem. Only have 11 with both playing. I think Cameron will play but Demel may just get a few mins. But I won't take a hit for a defender plus the issue with gw 29 sort of remove the options that I may be willing to take a hit for like Baines, Luiz, Azp, Evans Evra etc

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      1. yanky
        • 16 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        cheers, ill even take 1pt each on sub appearances hahah everybit will help this gwk!

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  6. wendty
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    For GW's beyound this week:

    Lambert or Sturridge?
    Begovic or De Gea?
    Cuellar or M.Turner?

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    1. Voodoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Sturridge
      De Gea
      Turner

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  7. Pepin - RIP Absinthe
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Butters, I am a member. Is there a table that shows what you were describing on the last page? He has also just come back from injury so arguably he isn't 100% match-fit...

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    1. Butters
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Go to player stats, Strikers, Last 4 GWs, Threat

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    2. Butters
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      and run a comparison with him and Lambert for example

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  8. JWilson3
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Should I start Demel with no resere and take the hit for Remy > Lukaku or be certain of 11 starters and start Remy and take the hit for Demel > Olsson?

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    1. Voodoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Remy may not start.

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    2. Cowboy John
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Is Lukaku a certain starter?

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  9. _Ninja_
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Evans or Azpil?

    Other 4 would are..
    Rafael/Zaba/Clyne/Davies

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  10. Twisted Saltergater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    For those who didn't understand the anytime scorer odds on Walcott and RVP on the other page, think of it as:

    Walcott 5/6 = 65/78
    RVP 8/13 = 48/78

    For a £78 bet, a bookie will give you £65 profit if Walcott scores, and £48 profit if RVP scores. As such, they think Van Persie is the more likely to score.

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    1. elkunaguero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      yes, but a goal for a mid is worth 5pts + CS get an extra 1 pt

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      1. Voodoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Bloody good point, and he can get a clean sheet point too.

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      2. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Er, so Baines(c) it is then!

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    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Good point.

      Decimals work too.

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      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        True, who needs common denominators these days 😉

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    3. Leaf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      A bookies odds are dictated by the weight of money or at least expected weight of money not strictly the statistical chance of an event happening

      It in short ,the masses will lump on RVP to score regardless of the price on offer

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      1. Blind
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        I agree although not quite as simple as that all the time

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  11. the axolotl
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    fpl trivia question;

    who is the lowest scoring fpl player who is the highest scoring player for their club?

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    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      McAnuff? or possibly Taarabt

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      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Although Le Fondre might have got a fair number of points now

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    2. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      This was asked recently. I think it was Taarabt.

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      1. the axolotl
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        not any more. the leader is surprisingly far in front

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    3. YNWA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      papiss cisse

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      1. The3rdTurd
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        ^^ this

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    4. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Krul?

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      1. the axolotl
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        1 pt off, great shout tho

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    5. the axolotl
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      yep cisse, kind of surprisingly, well done ynwa

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  12. mosch1one
    • 16 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Got one free transfer! Haven't a clue what to do so any help would be appreciated. Please click on my link.

    Done Johnson to Evans this week so far.

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    1. Still No Eye Dia
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Looks good. Keep the transfer, you might need it for all those gw29 blanks.

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      1. mosch1one
        • 16 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Feel like I'm not making the most of my free transfer though as I will still only have 1 again next week.

        I have a Wildcard for that 🙂
        In fact, when are most people with a wild card using it??

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  13. Voodoo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Need your expert advice; my ML leader is 75 points ahead, he has RVP and will prob captain him (if not he will captain Bale). He doesn't have Walcott but I do, should I captain Walcott, RVP or Bale?! At the moment I'm on Walcott....just.

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    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Pretty much the same boat here. I'm going for Walcott, it's all or nothing now.

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      1. Voodoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        May as well, in it to win it.

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    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Want it to be 75 points next week?

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      1. Voodoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        RVP? Lol

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    3. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Have you got your WC still? Has he?

      I would and I am going Walcott (c)

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      1. Voodoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Neither of us have our WCs. Cheers think I'm gonna

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  14. /
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    I am someone who often gets hung out to dry by all those around me.

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    1. Butters
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      😀 well played

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    2. New Ghost
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Alright I forgive you. This one made me chuckle.

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    3. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      I'd wipe my arsenal with you.

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    4. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Hey! Take it down a peg or two, Towelie!

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  15. FantasyFreak
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Suggestion please, a quick one.

    a)Evans and Sturridge ( I already have Suarez but definitely keeping Suarez)
    b)Enrique and Lambert

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  16. The Bandit
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    I got rid of Demel for a Newc def... It cost me a hit. It feels good

    My def does NOT have to get a cs or or attacking points this week to make it worthwhile... I don't want Demel, he would have gone anyway which would have taken up a better transfer or cost a hit later anyway. It's a long term move, it may set me back this week but it will pay in the long term.

    A hit is for a season, not a single gw... So there.. 😉

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    1. /
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      If money was no object would you have got Jevans instead?

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      1. The Bandit
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Maybe, if I didn't I already have Rafael but Evans is a great pick

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    2. tw
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      well said WR, well said.

      think you'll finally get your first european victory this gw? 😀

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      1. The Bandit
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        God no... 🙂

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    3. Still No Eye Dia
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Just what I was thinking. Debuchy for me 🙂

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    4. Voodoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Who did you put in, Debuchy?

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      1. The Bandit
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Nearly but went Saylor... He owes me..

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    5. the axolotl
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      one question; could you have done this next week for free, or have your more pressing concerns?

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      1. The Bandit
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        There will always be something more pressing than changing a def... Demel is a bad risk this week and I fancy Newc for a cleanie

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        1. the axolotl
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          fair call

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    6. UnderstandablyDistraught
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Santon or Debuchy?

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      1. UnderstandablyDistraught
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        nevermind ^^

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        1. The Bandit
          • 15 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          Haha... went for the punty one 🙂

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  17. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Dear TW,

    On behalf of FFS, in relation to the council website:

    Please stop endlessly advertising it. It's not as if the BAP Chap writes exclusively for you.

    Yours Sincerely,

    SJTWP

    P.S. Please start using a few capital letters here and there

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    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Do you not agree that once people are used to a BAP post appearing on the council site that they will stop continuously asking on here for his BAP predictions?

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      1. AK ⭐
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        This. Plus the work that TW and the Council members do is bloody awesome. People asking for Bap Chap all the time after the games irritates me more. And it isn't like he always advertises it.

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        1. Just A Hat
          • 16 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          ahh AK, I've decided to go RvP-less for the rest of the season after looking at your team...hopefully it is a good move

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        2. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          Technically, he advertises it with every post he makes 😉

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      2. Just A Hat
        • 16 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        no, simply because people still ask how long people are injured for, without checking team news and who is the best captain choice without looking at the captain poll

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        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          fair point

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      3. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        No, there will always be people who ask, and when the new comment system comes in, it'll be irrelevant anyway.

        Maybe I'm being harsh, but it does get a little annoying.

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    2. isacki: full casual
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      To be fair, the bap chap actually signed up to post his predictions there because he figured it made more sense to put it in one fixed place where people know it is than on one page of hundreds. Surely you can't object to that?

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      1. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Alright fine, I take it all back. I'm too soft 😛

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  18. jelly.john
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    if u have ur sec WC would u use it before GW 29 or after it when DGW ?

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    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      For the eventual DGW

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  19. donkey73
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 15 days ago

    Nobody gave me a convincing answer. Please explain:

    Why do people sell Fletcher with all the good fixtures????

    (I'm thinking to get him for Studge). Am I missing something?

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    1. bitterandstout
        13 years, 15 days ago

        I reckon, it's the lack of goals the black cats have scored. I do fancy him myself. Just don't fancy the price drops

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    2. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Team for the week is
      Fed (Bego)
      Demel, Distin, Martin, Zaba (Davies)
      Fellaini, Sissoko, Walcott, Mata (Michu)
      Lambert RVP (c) (Sturridge)

      Used my FT but considering a hit to do Davies to McAuley ? Demel may not play

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    3. Cocky Spaniel Alves
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      Is S Taylor nailed on?

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      1. The Bandit
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Get him... 😉

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    4. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 15 days ago

      repost:
      Sell Davies for 4.4, in which case I have 4.5 for a defender so who do I get? Or do I bench Davies this week and play Demel(TOT) and save the FT? Thanks

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      1. bitterandstout
          13 years, 15 days ago

          Demel's likely to be squeezed out by O brien.

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          1. Voodoo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            13 years, 15 days ago

            Demel has been West Ham's first choice RB, only thing keeping him away has been injuries and lack of match fitness.

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      2. the axolotl
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        adam le fondre's real first name is glenville, surely a first for the premier league, and should really be known as GALF.

        Shaka Hislop's real first name is Neil!

        anyone know any more of these oddities?

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        1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          Papiss Cisse's real name is Dave

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      3. COMH
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Sturridge >

        a) Dzeko

        b) Benteke

        c) Fletcher

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        1. tw
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          benteke

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      4. DVassell
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Pog(c)?

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      5. FantasyFS007
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Cazorla to Walcott for a hit?

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      6. Iain Dowies Love Child
        • 16 Years
        13 years, 15 days ago

        Pretty much set but Bego or Fed - first to 5 wins

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        1. New Ghost
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          Fed

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          1. DK5
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 15 Years
            13 years, 15 days ago

            Fed

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        2. bitterandstout
            13 years, 15 days ago

            Fed

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        3. Butters
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          I answered plenty of posts, so some replies pretty please 😀

          I can field 11 hitless no problemo, but I'm very tempted to do 2 long term hit.

          Bego -> DDG
          Demel -> Wilson (a pre-emptive GW29 move)

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          1. Epic Fail
            • 15 Years
            13 years, 15 days ago

            May as well save a transfer if you can.

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            1. Butters
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              13 years, 15 days ago

              ta 🙂

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        4. Epic Fail
          • 15 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          Can some of you go to bed please, so that the pages slow down.

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          1. donkey73
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            13 years, 15 days ago

            for sex you mean?

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            1. Epic Fail
              • 15 Years
              13 years, 15 days ago

              I don't normally, but just on this occasion, sure.

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        5. TheSteady ¤ Wines th…
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 15 days ago

          Whom to captain? So unsure....

          A: Robin van Persie

          B: Gareth Bale

          C: Theo Walcott

          Cheers! 🙂

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          1. tw
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 15 days ago

            CAB in that order

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          2. Jonny
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 15 days ago

            RVP

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