We draw a line under Gameweek 27 with a look at United’s in-form Brazilian right-back, the potential resurgence around the corner at the DW and the concerns surrounding Robin Van Persie’s pitch time as a dodgy hip, Champions League duties and a blank Gameweek 29 all combine to give Fantasy managers plenty to consider.
The Player
Yes, we could have thrown more superlatives the way of Gareth Bale but, having acknowledged the Welshman’s genius in our last Digest, we thought it was time to praise a defender who has shown similar progress with form and consistency this season. It also gives us an opportunity to hold our hands up and admit to how we recently fell foul of Sir Alex Ferguson’s latest media musings.
An outrageous long range effort at Loftus Road set United on their way to another three points and served up a 15 point return for Rafael, as the right-back moved to fourth spot in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) defender standings. As the season progresses, the Brazilian has shrugged off the threat of competition from Chris Smalling and Phil Jones and nailed down a regular role in the United back-four, with only a hamstring injury back in December curtailing his game time.
We have to admit here – just last week, we’d omitted Rafael from the Watchlist rankings in place of Jonny Evans after Sir Alex Ferguson had talked up the latter as a crucial first-team member. Evans, at 5.6 in FPL to Rafael’s 6.1, seemed the more secure option and afforded a cheaper route into United’s backline than the 7.3 priced Patrice Evra – as Rafael stole the show, Ferguson duly kept Evans on the bench with Rio Ferdinand slotting in alongside Nemanja Vidic at the heart of defence.
Ironically, Fantasy focus is firmly on Rafael at a time where he could, potentially, be rested for this weekend’s home clash with Norwich ahead of the midweek Champions League clash against Real Madrid. Factor in the currently blank Gameweek 29 and it’s possible he could miss the next two – yet over 24,000 FPL managers have drafted him in this week, more than three times any other defender.
With United’s midfield misfiring and Evra’s premium price offering less value, Rafael’s stock is set to rise further as Ferguson’s side close in on the title. Three successive clean sheets is the Red Devils’ best run of defensive returns this term and, although this demonstrates a tightening up at the back, Rafael has also chipped in with an assist in the previous Gameweek and has now averaged 4.6 points per game. Many will choose to wait until the Gameweek 29 trip to West Ham is at least rescheduled but when the dust settles on that one, his bandwagon has the potential to go into overdrive.
The Team
A 3-0 win over Reading saw Wigan climb out the bottom three and pick up the points for the first time in seven attempts last Saturday. Once again, Roberto Martinez’s men are hinting at a spring return to form as the battle to beat the drop intensifies; however, with just 11 Gameweeks left of the season, the Latics still have it all to do – they sit fourth-bottom, ahead of Villa on goal difference alone.
They’ve been here before, though. Indeed, it seems to take Wigan most of the season to awake from their slumber – only the real threat of relegation manages to somehow invigorate Martinez’s troops, as Fantasy managers will remember all too well from last season when they upset the form and fixture book to clinch survival, thanks to a series of thrilling victories.
Up next for Wigan is a run of four home fixtures in six which will likely play a significant part in determining their top-flight fate. Liverpool, Newcastle, Norwich and Swansea all arrive at the DW and with a trip to QPR also on the horizon, their schedule (aside from a current blank Gameweek 29) looks one of the best around over the short-term.
The return of Arouna Kone from African Cup of Nations duties is key. The Ivorian has scored twice in each of his two starts since arriving back on these shores – an FA Cup brace at Huddersfield was followed by a double at the Madejski. Just like Victor Moses last term, Kone could well be the Latics’ saviour – eight goals and five assists attests to how pivotal the 6.5 priced forward is set to be, though he’s likely to be supported by an able cast. Shaun Maloney and Jean Beausejour have produced returns in two of the last three and could well be worth a shout as a cheap fifth midfielder, while Emmerson Boyce’s out of position role on the right of midfield could entice new investors at 4.7.
The Talking Point
We always had our suspicions that Robin Van Persie would be rested for this weekend’s home game with Norwich but a clash with a cameraman in Saturday’s game at QPR has clinched it for many. Subbed off before the break with a hip injury, the Dutchman still supplied an assist before making way for Danny Welbeck at Loftus Road but with the Champions League game against Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid falling just three days after the Canaries match, does Sir Alex Ferguson really need to risk his top scorer?
As mentioned above, United’s trip to West Ham, initially set for Gameweek 29, has yet to be rescheduled – if the Premier League move this to another Gameweek, Van Persie could face two Gameweeks of inactivity, should Ferguson rest him this weekend. Certainly, with Wayne Rooney needing game time after a recent sinus infection and Javier Hernandez banging in the goals when selected, Ferguson will be confident of picking up the points – a 12 point lead over City at the summit clearly gives him some leeway to rotate.
The idea of selling Van Persie may seem sacrilegious to some but already, he’s been traded out by over 26,000 FPL managers this Gameweek – more than any other player thus far. Only Michu has a higher ownership right now; Van Persie sits in over 43% of teams, with Luis Suarez the next most popular forward with 32% ownership by comparison. Transferring him out over the next couple could prove a significant tactic – if he does indeed fail to play, over four in 10 Fantasy managers will suffer as a consequence and be left with a 14.0 bench warmer.
On the other hand, Van Persie has already shown he needs little time to produce; a 20-30 minute sub appearance could easily rack up the points if Ferguson feels he requires some game time. Bearing in mind the Dutchman only played 20-odd minutes of last Monday’s FA Cup win over Reading, he’s far from fatigued – a factor that is likely to persuade many to hold.
Selling price could also play a part. If you grabbed him at 13.0, for example, you’d get 13.5 for farming him out – an extra 0.5 will be needed to buy him back; perhaps a crucial factor if he is handed a double Gameweek later down the line. Indeed, it’d play into our hands if the Premier League were to make an announcement on the rearranged West Ham game soon; a decision before the weekend deadline would have a huge impact on how we assess the situation.
Ferguson’s Friday press conference will also be eagerly awaited. The United boss is unlikely to reveal his plans and is expected to keep his cards close to his chest with a meeting against Mourinho just around the corner, making any decision we take on the Dutchman something of a leap of faith either way.
Long-term, the result against Madrid is perhaps the key factor. Should United progress, there’s every chance that Van Persie will miss further league outings as Ferguson rests his star assets as he closes in on the European crown. Fall to Mourinho’s men and it would seem likely that Van Persie will be given every opportunity to score the goals that will not only sweep United to the title but also allow the Dutchman to claim the Golden Boot in his already impressive first season at Old Trafford.
