For my latest project, I’ve been working on working out what are the best defensive rotations based on fixture difficulty.

I have calculated ratings for the bottom 14 teams, so excluding LIV, TOT, ARS, CHL, MCI & MUN. Teams that we could reasonably include in a rotation should they prove to have a 4.5m option or a 5m if we are feeling a fit flush.

I’ve worked out EVERY COMBINATION of these 14 teams for the 2x1, 3x1, 4x2 & Uber. I wanted to throw my laptop out of the window at one point, but I eventually worked out a workflow that meant it wasn’t too painful. But all up votes are of course welcome 

METHODOLOGY
- Assign each team a rating for how likely they are to score at home & away.
o I used my opinion, yours may vary of course.
- Compare the ratings in each fixture.
- Work out the difficulty to keep a clean sheet for each team per fixture.
- Work out every combination of teams up to and inc. GW19
2x1 = 91 combinations
3x1 = 364 combinations
4x2 = 1001 combinations
Uber = 2002 combinations (Excel almost melted down here)
- Assign every combination a rating based on the total fixture scores for the games you will actually play divided by the total $ cost.
o By this I mean that in the 4x2, for example, each week I use the two best fixtures to contribute to the rating, not all four fixtures.
- No transfers are assumed in this, it’s fire & forget. Obviously even better results could be got by making changes at strategic points.
- The worksheets are at the point where they are almost totally data driven, so I should be able to make changes very easily.

ASSUMPTIONS
We can find a nailed on defender from these teams at the price suggested. E.g. EVE rate highly but assuming $4.5m Alcaraz with play is another factor, and so $5m is the 100$ safe amount really.

FLEXIBILITY
I’ve seen a few people suggest that when an injury comes or a player falls out of favour then the rotations break down. I don’t go for that. If for instance something happens in GW6 to my NEW def, then I simply look at the ratings for GW7 onwards with my other defenders and bring in another NEW or someone from a team that now makes the rotation even better.

TEAM SCORES
As a baseline, here are the ratings for each team based on just their own fixtures over GW1-19.
The lower the score the better.

ARS -50.0
AVL 12.5
CAR 58.0
CHE -56.5
CPL 35.0
EVE -21.0
FUL 24.0
HUL 50.5
LIV -41.5
MCI -46.5
MUN -59.0
NEW 11.5
NOR 43.0
SOT 4.5
STO 23.5
SUN 15.0
SWA 2.0
TOT -50.5
WBA 23.5
WHM 22.0

PART ONE – 2 x 1
Let’s start with the easiest, two defenders, one of which you play every week.
What we are looking to do here is lower the above scores by combining two teams.
e.g. WHM are at 22, but if we combine with a defender from another team we want to drive that 22 down much lower for the combination.

TOP 50 PAIRS
e.g. By themselves EVE are -21, FUL are +24, combine them and they are -38.
SWA & EVE are better but cost more, so rated lower.

Note – CPL have an annoying habit of having their good fixtures when some of the strong lower 14 teams face difficult fixtures, so they tend to crop up in the rotations. This scares me, so always buyer beware of CPL rotations!

Score - Combined fixture score
$ - Price for cheapest combo
Rating - Score / Price

Pair Score $ Rating
1 FUL EVE -38.5 9.0 -4.28
2 SWA EVE -40.5 9.5 -4.26
3 SOT EVE -37.5 9.0 -4.17
4 CPL EVE -32.0 8.5 -3.76
5 WBA EVE -35.0 9.5 -3.68
6 STO EVE -33.5 9.5 -3.53
7 AVL EVE -31.0 9.0 -3.44
8 NEW EVE -30.5 9.0 -3.39
9 HUL EVE -27.5 8.5 -3.24
10 SUN EVE -28.5 9.0 -3.17
11 NEW SWA -29.5 9.5 -3.11
12 SWA NEW -29.5 9.5 -3.11
13 NEW SOT -26.0 9.0 -2.89
14 SOT NEW -26.0 9.0 -2.89
15 WHM EVE -25.5 9.0 -2.83
16 CAR EVE -23.0 8.5 -2.71
17 SOT WHM -24.0 9.0 -2.67
18 WHM SOT -24.0 9.0 -2.67
19 SOT WBA -24.0 9.5 -2.53
20 WBA SOT -24.0 9.5 -2.53
21 NOR EVE -22.5 9.0 -2.50
22 SOT SWA -22.5 9.5 -2.37
23 SWA SOT -22.5 9.5 -2.37
24 CPL SOT -19.0 8.5 -2.24
25 SOT CPL -19.0 8.5 -2.24
26 AVL SWA -20.5 9.5 -2.16
27 SWA AVL -20.5 9.5 -2.16
28 SWA WHM -20.5 9.5 -2.16
29 WHM SWA -20.5 9.5 -2.16
30 FUL SWA -20.0 9.5 -2.11
31 SWA FUL -20.0 9.5 -2.11
32 AVL STO -18.5 9.5 -1.95
33 STO AVL -18.5 9.5 -1.95
34 SOT SUN -17.0 9.0 -1.89
35 SUN SOT -17.0 9.0 -1.89
36 SOT STO -17.5 9.5 -1.84
37 STO SOT -17.5 9.5 -1.84
38 NEW SUN -16.5 9.0 -1.83
39 SUN NEW -16.5 9.0 -1.83
40 FUL WHM -16.0 9.0 -1.78
41 WHM FUL -16.0 9.0 -1.78
42 AVL WBA -16.0 9.5 -1.68
43 WBA AVL -16.0 9.5 -1.68
44 AVL SOT -15.0 9.0 -1.67
45 SOT AVL -15.0 9.0 -1.67
46 STO SWA -16.5 10.0 -1.65
47 SWA STO -16.5 10.0 -1.65
48 STO WHM -15.5 9.5 -1.63
49 WHM STO -15.5 9.5 -1.63
50 FUL NEW -14.0 9.0 -1.56

Lastly it’s time for the UBERS!
Come in Tommy, it’s the test of metal for those of us who are contemplating putting an Uber out there come final selection time.

For previous installments of “How Does My Rotation Look”
Part one: http://bit.ly/15cHeHZ
Part two: http://bit.ly/161bp67
Part three: Currently missing in the ether under moderation…

5 teams from 14 comes to a total of 2002 combinations. If I knew what I do now, I wouldn’t have started this analysis. But once I start, I can’t stop. It’s a terrible trait to have.

So this time it’s 5 defenders from lower 14 teams, and you have to play 3 of them each week. So no longer the security of a top team to fall back on.

The best quintet gives a rating of -3.0, thus continuing the diminishing returns you’d expect, from fixture difficulty of -69.0

Here’s the top 50 Uber lovers

Quintet Score $ Rating
1 EVE NEW SOT SWA WHM -69.0 23.0 -3.00
2 EVE NEW SOT STO SWA -67.5 23.5 -2.87
3 CPL EVE NEW SOT SWA -62.0 22.5 -2.76
4 EVE NEW SOT SWA WBA -64.5 23.5 -2.74
5 AVL EVE SOT SWA WHM -63.0 23.0 -2.74
6 EVE FUL NEW SOT WHM -61.0 22.5 -2.71
7 AVL EVE SOT STO SWA -63.5 23.5 -2.70
8 EVE FUL SOT SWA WBA -63.0 23.5 -2.68
9 EVE SOT STO SWA WHM -62.5 23.5 -2.66
10 AVL EVE SOT STO WHM -61.0 23.0 -2.65
11 AVL EVE NEW SOT WHM -59.5 22.5 -2.64
12 CPL EVE FUL SOT SWA -59.5 22.5 -2.64
13 EVE NEW STO SWA WHM -62.0 23.5 -2.64
14 EVE FUL NEW SOT SWA -60.5 23.0 -2.63
15 EVE NEW SOT STO WHM -60.0 23.0 -2.61
16 CPL EVE NEW SOT STO -58.5 22.5 -2.60
17 EVE NEW SOT SUN WHM -58.0 22.5 -2.58
18 EVE SOT STO SWA WBA -61.0 24.0 -2.54
19 AVL CPL EVE SOT STO -57.0 22.5 -2.53
20 AVL EVE NEW SOT SWA -58.0 23.0 -2.52
21 EVE FUL NEW SWA WHM -58.0 23.0 -2.52
22 AVL EVE FUL NEW SOT -56.5 22.5 -2.51
23 AVL EVE NEW SOT SUN -56.5 22.5 -2.51
24 AVL EVE STO SWA WHM -59.0 23.5 -2.51
25 AVL EVE SOT STO SUN -57.5 23.0 -2.50
26 EVE FUL SOT SWA WHM -57.5 23.0 -2.50
27 EVE FUL NEW SOT SUN -56.0 22.5 -2.49
28 AVL EVE NEW SOT STO -57.0 23.0 -2.48
29 AVL EVE NEW SWA WHM -57.0 23.0 -2.48
30 EVE NEW SUN SWA WHM -57.0 23.0 -2.48
31 AVL EVE SOT SWA WBA -58.0 23.5 -2.47
32 EVE NEW SOT SUN SWA -56.5 23.0 -2.46
33 EVE SOT SUN SWA WHM -56.5 23.0 -2.46
34 AVL CPL EVE SOT SWA -55.0 22.5 -2.44
35 AVL EVE FUL SOT WHM -55.0 22.5 -2.44
36 EVE NEW SOT STO SUN -56.0 23.0 -2.43
37 AVL EVE SOT STO WBA -57.0 23.5 -2.43
38 CPL EVE NEW SOT WHM -53.0 22.0 -2.41
39 EVE SOT SWA WBA WHM -56.5 23.5 -2.40
40 CPL EVE SOT SWA WHM -54.0 22.5 -2.40
41 AVL EVE SOT WBA WHM -54.5 23.0 -2.37
42 EVE NEW SOT WBA WHM -54.5 23.0 -2.37
43 CPL EVE SOT SWA WBA -54.0 23.0 -2.35
44 EVE FUL NEW SWA WBA -55.0 23.5 -2.34
45 EVE NEW SOT STO WBA -55.0 23.5 -2.34
46 EVE SOT STO SUN SWA -55.0 23.5 -2.34
47 AVL EVE NEW SOT WBA -53.5 23.0 -2.33
48 AVL EVE NEW STO SWA -54.5 23.5 -2.32
49 AVL EVE FUL SWA WHM -53.0 23.0 -2.30
50 EVE FUL NEW SOT WBA -53.0 23.0 -2.30

Keen viewers will see we have simply added WHM to the best 4x2.

This #1 rated quintet give the following fixtures.

15 vs promoted teams.
4 vs top six teams.
GW15 is nasty though, you have to take on MCI & liv having ditched two worse fixtures.
But you could transfer your way around that by then if you planned for it.

Not sure if this has been covered by others, but having contributed nothing so far and being a WHU season ticket holder I thought I'd post some comments on our fantasy prospects.

Jussi - Was a FPL favourite last year and rightly so and has already had plenty of articles written about him. However, last season he was prone to making blunders and many fans were eager for him to be replaced in the January transfer window. A new 'keeper failed to materialise but Jussi managed to turn his form around. The difference this coming season is, besides his inflated price, we now have a capable back up in Adrian, so if Jussi repeats his same error prone streak, I cant see him getting the same chance to redeem himself.

Demel - A FFS cult hero last year and was pretty much solid throughout the season when fit. He didn't have much competition at right back due to O'Brien occupied on the left. With the introduction of Rat, O'Brien will be providing fierce competition and I'm interested to see who Allardyce will choose to start in the right back position.

Collins - I've seen Collins appear in the vast majority of the community's draft teams (including my own), with a cut price of 4.5m. Collins was the favoured partner of Reid at the heart of last season's back line, and I can't see any reason why this is likely to change. That aside, in FPL terms, he is unlikely to be rotated and will contribute a few goals and likely a few assists from knock downs (from short-ish freekicks) and being Allardyce's go to hoofer from freekicks inside our own half.

Nolan - Has now scored 10+ league goals in his last four seasons (two in the championship), and with Carroll signed permanently, should hope to continue this in the season ahead. He is Allardyce's first name on the teamsheet and has been scoring quite well in preseason. I think he is a great prospect for the first 6 GWs and as Green Windmill's excellent analysis [1] showed, Nolan tends to score very well against the 'easier' teams (I particularly enjoyed his mini league winning hat-trick on the last day of the season!).

Carroll - Played well and scored well in FPL terms towards the end of last season once he was finally fully fit. Allardyce has said that its unlikely Carroll will be match fit for the first game of the season, but as our marquee signing, I can't see Big Sam waiting on his forward's match fitness too long. The question for me is how effective Carroll will be once he is back and probably not at full fitness.

Punts:

Jarvis - Already has a sleeper article on him, but he definitely has the potential to score well this FPL season. He was the attacking outlet for so many of our games last season and just needs someone to put his crosses away.

J.Cole - He has been scoring well in preseason, but his place in the first XI isnt guaranteed.

Noble - Based on last season's stats, he performed well in the new bonus point system. Aside from being nailed on, he's also on short range free kicks, corners and penalties.

Avoid:

Diame - I've seen a few draft teams on here with Diame in them. I'd avoid personally; he loses possession often, doesnt score many and is inconsistent.

[1] http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2013/07/15/pre-season-friendlies-weekend-round-up/?hc_page=3#hc_comment_5034932

Second set of rotations. Now it’s time for the 3x1.
It’s rather ironic these are being posted under the Danny Graham article, a man who helps clean sheets along nicely.

If you missed part one on the 2x1 rotations, complete with all the methodology explanations, it is here: http://bit.ly/15cHeHZ

Three defenders, one of which you play every week.
Meanwhile you have two better defenders to be ever present in your team.

In theory the ratings here should be considerably better than the 2x1 ratings, since you get an extra fixture each week to choose from.

Our best 2x1 rating was -4.28 off a fixture difficulty score of -38.5

The 3x1s have lower ratings from better fixture difficulty scores.
That makes sense as the third team contribute 50% compared to the other two teams (100% to 150%) or 33.33% of the total to put it in different terms.

Our best rating is now -3.68, from a fixture difficulty score of -51.5

Here are the top 50 rotations

Trio Score $ Rating
1 EVE FUL SWA -51.50 14.0 -3.68
2 EVE SOT WBA -51.00 14.0 -3.64
3 EVE NEW SWA -49.00 14.0 -3.50
4 EVE FUL SOT -47.00 13.5 -3.48
5 EVE FUL STO -47.50 14.0 -3.39
6 EVE SOT SWA -47.50 14.0 -3.39
7 CPL EVE FUL -44.00 13.0 -3.38
8 CPL EVE SOT -44.00 13.0 -3.38
9 EVE HUL SWA -45.50 13.5 -3.37
10 EVE FUL SUN -45.00 13.5 -3.33
11 EVE NEW SOT -45.00 13.5 -3.33
12 AVL EVE SWA -46.50 14.0 -3.32
13 EVE FUL WBA -46.50 14.0 -3.32
14 EVE SWA WBA -47.50 14.5 -3.28
15 EVE FUL NEW -44.00 13.5 -3.26
16 EVE SOT STO -45.50 14.0 -3.25
17 CPL EVE NEW -41.50 13.0 -3.19
18 AVL EVE WBA -44.50 14.0 -3.18
19 EVE FUL WHM -42.50 13.5 -3.15
20 EVE SOT SUN -42.50 13.5 -3.15
21 EVE SUN SWA -44.00 14.0 -3.14
22 EVE STO SWA -45.50 14.5 -3.14
23 AVL CPL EVE -40.50 13.0 -3.12
24 CPL EVE HUL -38.50 12.5 -3.08
25 AVL EVE FUL -41.50 13.5 -3.07
26 CAR EVE SWA -41.50 13.5 -3.07
27 CPL EVE SWA -41.50 13.5 -3.07
28 EVE SOT WHM -41.50 13.5 -3.07
29 EVE HUL SOT -39.50 13.0 -3.04
30 EVE NEW WBA -42.50 14.0 -3.04
31 EVE SWA WHM -42.50 14.0 -3.04
32 AVL EVE STO -42.00 14.0 -3.00
33 EVE FUL HUL -39.00 13.0 -3.00
34 FUL NEW SWA -42.00 14.0 -3.00
35 NEW SOT SWA -41.50 14.0 -2.96
36 CPL EVE WBA -40.00 13.5 -2.96
37 EVE FUL NOR -40.00 13.5 -2.96
38 CAR EVE FUL -38.50 13.0 -2.96
39 EVE NEW STO -41.00 14.0 -2.93
40 NEW SWA WHM -41.00 14.0 -2.93
41 EVE HUL WBA -39.50 13.5 -2.93
42 CPL SOT WHM -38.00 13.0 -2.92
43 EVE STO WBA -42.00 14.5 -2.90
44 EVE NOR SWA -40.50 14.0 -2.89
45 CAR EVE SOT -37.50 13.0 -2.88
46 CPL EVE SUN -37.50 13.0 -2.88
47 AVL EVE NEW -38.50 13.5 -2.85
48 CPL EVE STO -38.50 13.5 -2.85
49 NEW SOT WHM -38.50 13.5 -2.85
50 CPL NEW SOT -37.00 13.0 -2.85

Good Day Gents!

MOURINHO: LOANS PLANNED

Nathaniel Chalobah
Josh McEachran
Lucas Piazon
Wallace Oliveira dos Santos
Bertrand Traore

5 players going out on loan..

** for Mata, Torres & Azpi owners **

Chelsea's three Spain internationals will miss Hull match. [Guardian]

José Mourinho is resigned to being without his Spanish trio Juan Mata, Fernando Torres and César Azpilicueta when Chelsea start their Premier League campaign at home to Hull City on 18 August. The trio are due back in London only 24 hours before the opener after Spain's friendly in Ecuador.

The World Cup and European Championship winners will play in Guayaquil on 14 August, the night England host Scotland at Wembley, with all three of Chelsea's Spanish contingent expected to be included in Vicente del Bosque's squad. Mourinho is already planning his team for the visit of promoted Hull on the following Sunday and, while the extra 24 hours granted by television coverage means the trio could be included on the bench, the Chelsea manager does not anticipate starting with any of the three.

'If a guy goes to Ecuador and arrives back in London on Saturday without sleep after 15 hours of flight, and arrives to train on Saturday morning, I don't think he is going to play on Sunday.'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2013/jul/22/chelsea-juan-mata-fernando-torres

Well, this would heal some of the pre-season headaches.

Then again, maybe there are no headaches with regards to these 3. Mata seems surprisingly unpopular, Azpi not nailed and Torres is just Torres.

Just a quick note on Cardiff in their current state..

Avoid our defence for now. Tough fixtures and without Barnett I don't fancy our centre back partnership.
Bellamy isn't the player you remember from previous prem seasons. More of a worker than a scorer. For midfield value look to Kim or gunnarsson when fit. If noone can prove himself up to the job he may be a dark horse but not guaranteed starts as yet.
Cornelius is a great buy for us but will be the catalyst for Campbell to score the points when he is fit. If Maynard plays he'll most likely be shoved out wide. Could be profitable out on the wing but unproven and not worth the risk.

The RVP argument

I know it's been discussed a lot on here but there still seems to be a split between owning or not owning RVP, here's my opinion.

Van Persie has gained 36% ownership so far at 14m, this will probably increase slightly as more of the casuals join the game and put him in.

While there is no questioning his ability to score against anyone, at £14m you need at least a goal and probably more every game to justify his price, especially when you can get 2 top players in place of him- potentially giving more balance to your team.

Because of this lets just say RVP struggles in the first couple of games- Swa (a), Che (h), Liv (a) and a potential rest ahead of the 4th game because of champs league- not the easiest of starts. With high ownership and other bargain players potentially exploding in these weeks, he could be one of the first players transferred out to free up funds resulting in a potential value drop. A price of £13.5m when his fixtures make him essential (gw6) would be much better value in my opinion.

By the same argument, by not having him early on the risk of his price increasing is low because

A) people who want him will already have him
B) he's so expensive he'd have to be on fire

People may be scared off by his captaincy potential but with options such as Bale, and Hazard, Walcott Aguero with stronger starts you won't be that far behind, after all they will have a £5m mid while you've got Silva and Sturridge!

Food for thought