Lukaku 😯

Eriksen in there. I want Lamela 🙁

I assume you used Pelle's statistics from his time at his former club to reach a conclusion on his value? So it's fair to say he might not replicate that value in the PL?

Unless a detailed description of this calculation of performance was given, then I really find this bewildering and not particularly useful?

Debuchy based on his performances for Newcastle?

Rmt please- not sure if it is a silly idea or not cos I've just been playing about.

Green (Mannone)

Lovren-----f.luis-------baines--------Evans--------pva

Hazard---------Ramsey (shelvey)(lamela)(Jarvis)

Rooney---------dzeko--------bojan

Originally I played abou trying 4 at the back but liked all of he fixtures when I went onto pick my team. Thoughts???

Did you cut the article short? How did y calculate this?

Which 4.0m defenders look closest to being nailed-on?

"I found that more expensive goalkeepers and defenders in the 5.5 and 6.0 price range are worth the price compared to other positions."

"The worst players for value were: Mathieu Debuchy...."

This seems to be a contradiction. Debuchy is widely accepted as being one of the best £5.5 defenders, which you claim are good, and then you claim he is the worst for value??

Yeah, I'm also a bit confused. Since you're using VORP, I assume you're comparing all players to the baseline players you pointed out. But I don't really understand what the value of pointing out those replacement level players is... It's not that hard to just look at a player's performance the last year and consider his price. Not to mention I don't think last years total points is a particularly good metric for predicting this year's performance. And how would Lukaku be better than Giroud? How would Baines be better than Coleman? Or are there other stats being looked at other than last year's points? (I would approve of this, but you gotta show it

One small thing is missing. Where do you get your projected Pts from?

RVP , Debuchy in Worst columns confirms your methodology is Useless lol.

An arsenal defender @5.5 is a true Value for money.
RVP @12.5 is one hell of a deal considering he will be playing under the Manager who likes him the most + he will be taking Pens + FKs from left + He is very good in air.

Lukaku @9 is just a waste - he will never take penalties, no dead ball duties. He only has option to score from an open play. & the way Martinez play he gives his winger chance to come inside and lukaku work is to provide room for them.

I clearly wont accept this article how could Debuchy Oscar and RVP be worst players for value ?? if you take a look at the 12/13 season RVP was the player nearly every fantasy manager wanted as his/her captain for their squad how can a player like that be worst players for value and if you take a look at how Debuchy and Oscar performed in the world cup they were really good

I dont think this article is so good

I like the concept but with all due respect I dont think this is we use VORP in baseball stats. There have been some great conversations over the past few summers about it on here and I think you are on to something so apogies if it comes across as harsh as I really like these kinds of approaches.

Pretty sure Green Windmill has some useful bookmarks.

You are telling that defenders has the best value, so I assume you will stick with 5-4-1 to max the "value"? I don't think that the "value" stuff is really relevant when the slot is 2-5-5-3.

How was this ever considered to be posted as an article? There is no justification for assertions, no methodology, glaring absences.. Surely non-playing players who have 0 points all season are the worst value players..

I don't think this analysis is as bad as some of you are saying. I've used a bit of a different approach, which is basically to use excel's solver to create the best team. The projections come from this site in the members area. Implicit in that is that the solver should select the best "value" players. The only one of bigbadrob's suggestions that doesn't show up in most of my scenarios is Jonjo. Carzola, Oscar and RVP don't show up in any. I think his work is spot on.

There is some merit to the idea that adding a player like Baines at the expense of a lesser midfielder or forward will net you more total points. The downside, as I see it, is you put significant eggs in one basket and totally ignore the value of rotation by doing that (e.g. you are assuming Baines is optimal for your starting 11 every week).

I'm a bit confused, what does 'notional baseline of a replacement player' mean? An example would be useful.

I use points per million per game to compare players and see who is the best value. I use this method to pick my first 15 and then I look at points per game, fixtures and changes from last season that may have an impact on this season.

To calculate points per million per game I use last years points and games played and this years prices.

I don't understand the methodology either, and the results aren't convincing.

How do u mean Debuchy is no value

Please stop posting articles like this!

If more people catch on to this concept, it'll just make it that much tougher to do well...
😉

Would you or wouldn't you have debuchy?

The points totals quoted by bigbadrob appear to be taken from members area projections, but there may be differences of opinion as to how reliable these forecasts are.

He has then selected the players priced exactly 0.5m above the minimum price for their category with the biggest projected points totals as his baseline players.

I'm not convinced about this method of comparisons with baseline players myself. The effect will probably be that he eventually replaces his 15 baseline players with the 15 'best value' players and still has money to spare from his 100m budget. So the only effect of the baseline players is that they affect the order in which they are replaced. A different set of baseline players would merely result in them being replaced in a different order, but would still result in the same set of 15 'best value' players.

Also, his calculations do not take into account the effects of rotation, especially for goalkeepers and defenders. So even if De Gea turns out to be better value than Foster, it does not necessarily follow that he is better value than a Foster/Krul combination.

Nor do they take into account the effect of captaincy.

The best squad is the one that will make the most effective use of the full 100m budget, and will probably be rather different from a set of 15 'best value' individuals.

lol

I am making a post, but in much much more detail. I will make interactive tables for you to view the VORP for all players in FPL and will make some for members and non members.

I will also make a spreadsheet where you can input your team and it gives you a score regarding VORP and PPM.

Hi guys,

I signed up to this site last season but didn't really do much posting. This time out FF seems to have lost some of its sparkle for me so I'm going to try and take a more active role in the community.

Hopefully I've managed to link my team correctly (I think I'm going to need some technical advice before this season is through, especially on how to set up a grav), so you'll see I'm not particularly awful at the game and have had two top 10k finishes in the past few seasons.

My first question is does anyone see value in Chambers for the start of the season? I've not read anything official about Per's return date, so am thinking Chambers might start at centre-back for the first few games. With this article highlighting the lack of value in Debuchy, do you think Chambers is an option for the first three gameweeks or will it lead to budget problems further down the line?

This is really poor as a community article, please moderate out rubbish like this.

Really like the article, mainly because i have prior understanding of why it works (NFL fantasy enthusiast).

What it does fail to take into account of though is armband. Players like RVP, oscar, etc we all know don't stack up on a point per pound basis but when you factor in they get twice the number of points they really are worthwhile.

My thanks to the people who took the post for what it was, for anyone who added to the discussion and people asking questions to gain understanding, rather than just outright criticising something they didn't understand.

First post in here and must say I'm a little disappointed at the level of abuse for trying to add something to the conversation, reminds you how brave and obnoxious some people are behind an anonymous username.

The article was cleaned up a little bit from what I submitted, so left out some of the points I made which may have helped understanding.

Basically, 'points per million' is not a good way to determine value, because the minimum cost of a player is not zero so you are not comparing like with like. You have to pay at least £4.0m (depending on the position) so you have to compare the extra points you get to the extra money you spend.

I did everything off the Members' area projections, so I am not making m own bold statements about how players will perform this year or taking into account anything other than the numbers there.
Completely ignored captaincy, rotation, everything else.
If you went with the best 'value' players you would not get to a total of £100.0m.
And as I clearly pointed out "all calculations will be dependent on your baseline, and as such can vary wildly according to this choice" which is another way of saying; this is the way I did it, figure out what works best for you.

It was just a thought exercise more than anything else, to get people thinking about how you determine you own 'value'. I have read previous community articles and benefitted from them challenging the way I think about FF, and I thought I'd try and add something to the conversation. Hopefully some people found it helpful.

Rob