[sbu_large_image] Preamble
13 September 2014 2753 comments
Mark Mark
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In case you missed it (and, doubtless, the intention is that you do), the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) have appeared to have tweaked the algorithm that governs their player prices and, as a result, slowed the increases of player values. Where last season a strong bandwagon would soar, sometimes adding 0.3 to a player’s price in a week, now we’re seeing far steadier rises. While most of the three million who play FPL will be oblivious to this, many amongst the Fantasy Football Scout community are very aware of the change; some are not particularly enamoured by it.

I have to admit, I’m slightly biased on the matter. I was badly stung by player values last season. I missed several key bandwagons and watched those players – Aaron Ramsey and Yaya Toure – accelerate away from my budget, making it even more difficult for me to admit my error and bring them in after big points hauls.

Even before last season, though, I’ve always felt that the FPL market was too volatile, that players soared and dropped in price too quickly. I hear the arguments that this new landscape makes things easier for the “mainstream” and “casual” player but I’m struggling to see how this would persuade the FPL to shift back to a more changeable market. It may even have been the intention.

The Premier League want to attract and, more importantly, retain players. They’ve developed a game that has captured our imagination as seasoned Fantasy managers but they may have identified rising player prices as a factor that perturbs the more casual player. The Premier League don’t want to explain and make the price changes transparent – keeping them under wraps allows them to tinker during the season. Instead, they appear to have opted to curb their influence.

The calming of the price rises does remove some of the “advantage” (Tom Fenley won last season’s FPL title without monitoring them) gained by those who studied third-party tools and plotted the transfer strategies accordingly. However, equally, it also reduces the frustration we face when a bandwagon faces a term of absence.

Daniel Sturridge provides a timely example: he could be out for three weeks or more and yet his owners will have little qualms about selling him on because his price has not increased markedly, as a result there’s little or no concern on funds lost or the inability to fetch him back once he’s fit. In previous seasons, I’ve always felt we can be punished for getting in early on key players, watching them rise and then face the conundrum of losing funds when they pick up injuries or bans. That issue is exacerbated by the rapid rise in price in form players; based on the current trends, that should now be reduced.

This undoubtedly tweaks the mechanics of the game. If I miss out on a major bandwagon, I can jump on board a week later, leaving it until the following Friday and pay just 0.1 more or even the same price as those who beat me to the punch. Last season, in that scenario, I might have felt pushed into spending points or making my transfer early in the following week or risk paying 0.2 or 0.3 more.

The rewards for getting the right player at the right time aren’t reduced – those who make the right call, still get the points. However, the penalties for missing out have diminished. It’s not that the hardcore, hands-on manager is being punished, more that the casual manager can now relax, dip into the game every Friday and not get the impression that they are at a disadvantage.

The “hardcore” manager can object to this change but, realistically, we can’t expect the move to be reversed if it’s seen to broaden the appeal of the game. We just have to accept it and play what’s in front of us, relying on our ability swoop for big hauls and leave others chasing points. We also have to remember that the FPL have kept the system behind the player prices to themselves for this very reason – they reserved the right to change the way it worked and tweak the balance – it’s not in the rules so we have no guarantees.

On another note, I find it interesting that there’s a section of Fantasy managers that are missing this aspect of the FPL and the task of tracking market forces. Fantasy games often baulk at the idea of using stat-driven scoring matrix for fear of adding too much complexity. And yet, from the reaction to this recent change, a good deal of us enjoy the process of monitoring and playing a mechanic that is unexplained and revealed only by the use of third-party tools. We can’t deny that the art of player the FPL market was and still is a dark art – a hardcore pursuit. Seemingly, however, it’s something we’ll be left hankering for.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

2,753 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Yome
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Rambo in the hole!

  2. Team News
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany (C), Demichelis, Clichy, Fernandinho, Lampard, Navas, Silva, Milner, Aguero

  3. New Ghost
    12 years, 1 month ago

    no yaya 😯

    1. Billy Gilmore
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Injured?

  4. Kerz
    12 years, 1 month ago

    No Dzeko no Yaya

    1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I was close to bringing Dzeko in. Thank God...

  5. Jax
    12 years, 1 month ago

    TEAM NEWS: Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany (C), Demichelis, Clichy, Fernandinho, Lampard, Navas, Silva, Milner, Aguero

    1. Bob.
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Good for Silva owners

  6. Sz21
    12 years, 1 month ago

    good start

  7. Valar(Keith)
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Rambo and Welbeck.. Beautiful!! no yaya.. even more beautiful 🙂

  8. Wilshere Knowledge
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Welbeck, Rambo, Alexis. 😎

    1. Jax
      12 years, 1 month ago

      6 points then

      1. Wilshere Knowledge
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Result! 😉

  9. LewanGOALski
    12 years, 1 month ago

    No Dzeko 🙁

    1. Jax
      12 years, 1 month ago

      benched

  10. SG8
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Ramsey!

  11. Arvin-ation
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany (C), Demichelis, Clichy, Fernandinho, Lampard, Navas, Silva, Milner, Aguero

  12. Yome
    12 years, 1 month ago

    I sold Dzeko, yes!!!!!

    1. Billy Gilmore
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Brace off the bench.

      1. Yome
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Very optimistic 🙂

  13. drughi
    12 years, 1 month ago

    lampard to take penalties then 🙂

    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Kun

      1. drughi
        12 years, 1 month ago

        relax just kidding

  14. VougieDipond
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Frank lampard in a city shirt is just wrong. I suppose you have to take a step down though in the twilight of your career

  15. SW6
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Lampard 😯

  16. Jax
    12 years, 1 month ago

    wow 3 englishmen in city team

  17. JK - Cønt ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Pelle missed a trick not playing Sagna

    1. Billy Gilmore
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Why?

      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 1 month ago

        at the Emirates

  18. Wirtzle Gummidge
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Aguero and Welbeck

    😎

  19. Davido989
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Had Yaya. WC paying off already 😉

  20. GoonerByron
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Ultimate FPL.. Play Welbeck or Naismith?

    1. SW6
      12 years, 1 month ago

      That's tough, I'm playing both. Naismith just I'd say.

    2. Billy Gilmore
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Naismith

    3. Debauchy
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Welbeck

  21. Nomar
    12 years, 1 month ago

    I sold Yaya last night for Sterling.

  22. Les Bleus
    12 years, 1 month ago

    So does Sanchez's value go down now that Arsenal have signed Welbeck? He probably won't play up front as much as he would have imo.

    1. Valar(Keith)
      12 years, 1 month ago

      ieo.. in everyone's opinion

  23. Piggs Boson
    12 years, 1 month ago

    You have to feel for Yaya owners. What a rotten points total from an 11.0m player...

    1. RabMac
      12 years, 1 month ago

      12.7% ownership as well 🙁

  24. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Full teams with subs

    Szczesny, Debuchy, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Flamini, Wilshere, Ramsey, Alexis, Ozil, Welbeck

    #Arsenal subs: Ospina, Chambers, Gibbs, Arteta, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Cazorla, Podolski

    Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany (C), Demichelis, Clichy, Fernandinho, Lampard, Navas, Silva, Milner, Aguero

    SUBS NEWS: Caballero, Kolarov, Sagna, Mangala, Nasri, Sinclair, Dzeko

    1. Woy of the Wovers
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Chambers set for another 8pts from the bench.

  25. Wilshere Knowledge
    12 years, 1 month ago

    What a defensive City team... 😆

  26. Kerz
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Lol, will Aguero or Lamps take penalties?

    1. Game of Stones
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Probably Lamps

  27. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    No Chambers. 🙁

    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      surely you knew this would happen eventually?

    2. FPL Daniel
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Damn. He could come and give us lucky CS again. But the difference is that I started him this time, last time he was on my bench 🙁 Compassion from me Doos 🙁 :S

    3. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Potty.

  28. AGUEROOOOO!!!!!
    12 years, 1 month ago

    i thought dzeko would start? always listen to gut like it did LOOOOOOOOOOL

  29. FPL Daniel
    12 years, 1 month ago

    I don't know who I captained at the end. Rooney or Costa. Not sure did I confirm the change...

    Others? Who is your captain..?

    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Sterling

    2. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Balo

    3. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Di Maria :S

    4. Parm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Aguero

  30. MJ6987
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Ramsey and Welbeck start

    No Yaya or Dzeko

    Can this *get* any better?

    1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Aguero feels his hammy early doors? 😉

    2. Fantasy Gold
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Nice. What's your team looking like MJ?