With Gameweek 14 almost upon us, we take a step back to summarise the lessons learned from the weekend’s action as we consider how to cope with Costa’s baggage, analyse the Saints’ decline and examine how things are clicking down at the Lane…
Clean Sheets are back on the agenda…
Suddenly it appears that defensive points are up for grabs. Following on the back of Newcastle’s recent showings, Chelsea have now conceded just four goals in eight Gameweeks. United have shipped three goals in five, Arsenal have kept three clean sheets in five and Sunderland have conceded just two goals in the previous four. We’ve seen this trend before: as the fixture list intensifies, so the attacking verve reduces and teams put more emphasis on reserving energy, keeping things tight and winning matches by the odd counter-attack goal.
With Chelsea and City seemingly locked in a two-horse title race, it looks inevitable that Jose Mourinho will continue to send his side out locked into “results mode” – grinding victories and retaining defensive sensibilities. While many are considering shipping Diego Costa to double on Chelsea’s midfield assets, I wonder whether the defence may just emerge as their most profitable area of the pitch in the coming months.
QPR are on the attack…
The clean sheet theory probably won’t apply to QPR. While Steven Caulker rewarded the short-term investment with an assist for Wes Morgan’s own goal, Saturday’s win over Leicester made it obvious that Harry Redknapp will rarely look to defensive solidity to win matches. Harry is all about playing to his side’s strengths. In Charlie Austin, they’ve a striker with a “hot foot” – a goalscorer in the kind of form that can lift them out of the relegation mire.
Against the Foxes, Redknapp’s men created no less than 33 goal scoring opportunities. Over the season so far, they are ranked fourth in the league for goal attempts. While they are likely to remain amongst a pack of strugglers, it’s clear that Redknapp is intent on going for broke to get them out of trouble. He’s focused on scoring more goals than the opposition – a good thing for Austin and his growing ownership.
Welbeck wont’ be put in the corner…
Sure enough, the England striker found himself deployed on the left flank but, whilst constantly swapping roles with Alexis Sanchez, Danny Welbeck ensured he was in a position to leap above the Baggies backline to head Arsenal’s winner. Regardless of the praise he heaps on Welbeck, Arsene Wenger’s decision to immediately turn to Olivier Giroud demonstrated his doubts on the summer signing’s goal power. Saturday’s winner was the perfect response and a reminder that, at just 7.1 in the Fantasy Premier League, Welbeck can still offer value at a time when, outside of Sanchez, the Gunners are affording us few other assured sources of attacking points. As a side note – the impact of Welbeck’s role on Sanchez could be a worrying knock-on and should be monitored.
Kane plays the Pochettino way…
While Mauricio Pochettino showed some reluctance to give Harry Kane his opportunity in the Premier League, it appears that the homegrown striker has immediately bought into the Argentine’s tactics and ethos. The Spurs boss encourages a pressing game high up the pitch and in Kane he has a striker who can drop into the midfield areas and chase and win the ball – demonstrated clearly by his intervention for Roberto Soldado’s goal. More to the point, if Kane can extract goals from the pedestrian Soldado, his own starting role looks assured. Still simmering at just 4.9 in the FPL, there appears to be little reason to overlook Kane once Crystal Palace roll up to the Lane for Gameweek 15.
And Eriksen needs our attention too…
The Dane has been Pochettino’s other major spark in recent weeks. While Fantasy managers have been monitoring Christian Eriksen’s progress, back-to-back league goals have cemented his start and established him as a prime mid-price midfield cut. While it’s not clear how Nacer Chadli now fits into Tottenham’s midfield, there’s no doubt that there’s been a power shift in Fantasy terms towards Eriksen. Supremely creative, with set-pieces in his armoury, he’s scoring goals while his crosses and through-balls can target two in-form strikers in Soldado and Kane.
Rodgers had seen enough…
Liverpool’s teamsheet for the visit of Stoke to Anfield demonstrated that Brendan Rodgers had reached a crossroads. His recent faith in Rickie Lambert repaid, he clearly felt it was time to invoke further change – “resting” Steven Gerrard and keeping Dejan Lovren out of his lineup. Gerrard will surely earn a recall at Leicester – Lovren probably won’t. His demise as a Fantasy asset has been slow and steady and now he appears to be the major scapegoat for the Liverpool malaise. Kolo Toure came into the back four and immediately steered them to just their second clean sheet since Gameweek 3. Along with Jose Enrique (4.6) – also recalled at left-back – Toure (4.7) needs monitoring as a potential asset as Liverpool approach a run of matches in the New Year that could well spark a revival.
Van Persie’s not finished yet…
While Robin van Persie’s price tag may curb any investment, his goal in the 3-0 demolition of Hull demonstrated that there’s still plenty left in the tank. As confidence returns to his displays, the Dutchman could yet be a factor in our seasons – perhaps as a short-term differential – a phrase that just seems ridiculous when we consider he remains Fantasy Football royalty.
The double figure return against the Tigers could easily be repeated against a injury-strewn Stoke in midweek. With Sergio Aguero so consistent and with in-form budget options on offer, it’s doubtful whether that would even be enough to break up our forward lines. Even so, an in-form Van Persie remains a welcome sight and presents a formidable, if unlikely “Plan B”.
Costa tests the resolve…
A smattering of yellow flags and yellow cards – owning Diego Costa continues to be a stormy experience. The Chelsea striker is successfully balancing out the consistency of his scoring with a collection of injuries and bookings that hand us bi-weekly troubles. Costa will sit out Wednesday’s meeting with Spurs and that’s proved the final straw for some. He’s failed to explode since those early season returns and with budget strikers performing, there is the opinion that we can go without Costa and his toxic baggage. For me, his ability to score week in, week out, still warrants holding tight. Chelsea’s midfield can be equally frustrating and Costa has enough plum fixtures in the coming weeks to convince me that he may yet deliver double figure returns very soon. Hull at the Bridge in Gameweek 16 without Costa is a scary thought.
Sunderland are back to their banana skin best…
We witnessed last season just how adept Sunderland can be at de-railing the Premier League’s elite. Saturday’s gutsy display against Chelsea harked back to those performances and indicated that City will find them more than worthy opponents on Wednesday evening. While the fixture list is against Gus Poyet’s men, it’s worth us monitoring the Black Cats’ potential to frustrate opponents and earn unlikely clean sheets. As we mentioned in our Sunday Scout Notes, Costel Pantilimon, at 4.4 in the FPL, has emerged as a worthy target for a keeper’s spot: the Romanian could warrant our attention from Gameweek 19 onwards.
Koeman’s ideas are running dry
Southampton worried me a little when they fell behind at Villa – while they pressed and eventually broke through, there was a distinct lack of cutting edge and an over reliance on their full-backs to provide the width. City found them out – shut down this supply and successfully kept them at arms length, despite Eliaquim Mangala’s best efforts. The Saints now go to Arsenal having carved out just a single “Big Chance” (an gilt-edged opportunity) in their last two. Indeed, of 29 attempts on goal, 10 have been created from set-plays – an indication that teams have begun to work them out and limit their effectiveness in the final third. Perhaps it was inevitable – with a stiffening schedule, we were due to see Southampton’s output diminish. The grizzly facts are that Graziano Pelle and Dusan Tadic have returned two assists between them in the last five league outings and their tough run of fixtures has only just begun.
Aguero is frightening….
We wondered how the Southampton rearguard would handle Sergio Aguero and we got our answer: City’s striker could not be tamed. While a bizarre refereeing decision robbed the Argentine of an opportunity from the spot, his workrate and vision rewarded his owners with a pair of assists. Comparisons to Luis Suarez are perhaps unjust – Aguero’s ability to single-handedly destroy opponents isn’t quite so potent. Equally, Aguero’s Fantasy potential hasn’t reached the heights that Suarez achieved last season, although there is little doubt that he has come the closest to compensating us for the loss of the Uruguayan’s output. Arguably, Aguero should be backed with the armband home and away – a tactic no doubt endorsed by those who have sold on Diego Costa.
