If you were here last week, you’ll be well aware of how my last transfer move turned out. While I spent 500 words wondering how Edin Dzeko would ruin my weekend, I never quite expected him to do it without kicking a ball – kudos to Edin– you got me again.

So this week I’m certain to play safe, right?

Acquiring Wilfried Bony is the obvious move. I may only get get another four matches from the Ivorian but, given his current form, that should be sufficient to help salve the Dzeko debacle and save face.

The only issue is that, during the week, I’ve had my head turned. I wrote this article promoting Andy Carroll’s worth – mainly so I could use the “Carroll” pun at Christmas but also because I actually gathered together a decent argument to say that he’ll score heavily against Leicester today.

To be frank, Nigel Pearson’s side look sitting ducks. Their own form is abject, while opponents West Ham remain in bloom and are chasing the unlikely promise of a top four finish.

More importantly, my analysis revealed an obvious weakness in the Foxes armour akin to the exposed exhaust port on the Death Star: Leicester can’t defend aerial balls*. That’s a tiny problem against West Ham when they’ve got a Luke Skywalker in the form of Andy Carroll, with Sam Allardyce muttering in his ear like a bloated Ben Kenobi.

Over the last four Gameweeks, West Ham have put in more crossed balls than any other team – that trend is going to continue today. Big Sam loves his stats – like me he’d have been purring over the numbers and, unless otherwise distracted by his Greggs lunch, he’d have surrey come to the same conclusion: throw the ball in the box and let Carroll deal the damage.

So do I back this hunch?

Such dilemmas tell us a lot about our Fantasy Football management style. Bony is unquestionably the safe option and, having examined Swansea’s data over the last four, still the one I’m likely to take.

Carroll is the day’s flair pick. He returned double figures in his last home match and, given that he’s likely to be on penalties in Mark Noble’s absence, he could easily repeat that.

The Hammers Boxing Day derby with Chelsea, when Bony will face Villa at home, is the major fly in the ointment. Looking ahead, I’m likely to either have to take Downing and Carroll to the Bridge and hope for the best, or have Bony facing Villa at the Liberty and have another transfer to strengthen elsewhere.

I believe Carroll will outscore Bony today but, if I have to spend four points on Boxing Day to swap in the Swansea man, it’s likely the advantage will be lost.

So, while Sam’s on my shoulder this morning, beckoning me to “use the force”, I think I’ll have to ignore him and take the safe option. We all know how last week’s gamble worked out.

* No Bothans died to bring me that information.