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Do Promoted Teams Start Well?

6 August 2015 24 comments
powderjunkie powderjunkie
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This year, several players whose teams have just been promoted, such as Watford’s Troy Deeney and Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie, have emerged as interesting Fantasy Football prospects.

But do they start well, fuelled by the enthusiasm of playing in the Premier League, or are they rabbits caught in the headlights, blinded by the skills of the top flight’s bright stars?

To answer this question, I have looked at how many points each promoted team won during the first five Gameweeks of the last five seasons, and compared it the the number of points they won throughout the rest of the season. By going back to 2010, I have a big enough sample size (75 games) to be reasonably confident in whatever conclusions I draw.

History

2010-2011
•    Newcastle : LWDLW – 7 points. Total for the season : 46 points
•    West Brom : LWLDW – 7 points. Total for the season : 47 points
•    Blackpool : WLDWL  – 7 points. Total for the season : 39 points

2011-2012
•    QPR : LWLDW – 7 points. Total for the season : 37 points
•    Norwich : DDLLW – 5 points. Total for the season: 47 points
•    Swansea : LDDLW – 5 points. Total for the season : 47 points

2012-2013
•    Reading : DLLLD – 2 points. Total for the season: 28 points
•    Southampton : LLLLW – 3 points. Total for the season: 41 points
•    West Ham : WLWDD – 8 points. Total for the season: 46 points
2013-2014
•    Cardiff : LWDDL – 5 points. Total for the season : 30 points
•    Hull City : LWLDW – 7 points. Total for the season: 37 points
•    Crystal Palace : LLWLL – 3 points. Total for the season: 45 points

2014-2015
•    Leicester City : DLDWW – 8 points. Total for the season: 41 points
•    Burnley : LLDDD – 3 points. Total for the season: 33 points
•    QPR : LLWLD – 4 points, 3 goals. Total for the season : 30 points

Total
•    Opening 5 games (75 games) : 80 points – PPG : 1.07
•    Rest of season (495 games) : 515 points – PPG : 1.04

Conclusion

It seems there is no noticeable difference between how promoted teams start the season, and how they perform throughout the rest of the season.

24 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Cheers for this. Looks like that's another myth debunked.

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    1. Kase II
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 5 months ago

      Whether or not promoted teams win or lose though is largely irrelevant.

      More important is whether or not teams can keep clean sheets or attacking players can score goals.

      Carroll scored a hat trick in one of the first games of 2010. I think Wilson could bag a few even if Bournemouth don't win too many.

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  2. Bolivian Seaman
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Nice. I thought the answer was No, thanks

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  3. Eze Really?
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Francis Ritchle Wilson Mings Ighalo are the choices. all are slightly over the lowest price. You may have to get 1. There are others of course but mathematics suggests one will fail.

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    1. Eze Really?
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 5 months ago

      Forgot deeney!

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  4. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Nicely done! Excellent point ...

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  5. Hitthelow
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Nice - good to see they might be an option than first though.

    RMT - A or B?

    A)

    Ruddy/Rudd
    Az/Clyne/Cedric
    Hazard/Walcott/Henderson/Depay
    Rooney/Deeney/Pelle

    Bench: Wanyama/Huth/S. Taylor

    B)

    Cech/Hennessey
    Az/Clyne/Cedric
    Hazard/Henderson/Chadli/Depay
    Rooney/Berahino/Pelle

    Bench: Wanyama/Huth/S. Taylor

    So yeah A or B? I don't know whether to go for the better goalkeeper or better midfield really.

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    1. FredtheRed
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 5 months ago

      I would definitely go for A as I feel the stronger midfield will garner more points than the stronger GK position - he is, after all, only one player. I really like Walcott and have him in my team along with Haz.

      As a Utd fan i really want Depay to do well, and think he will, but I've resisted the temptation to put him in my team due to uncertainty on LVG selection, formation and whether he will make an instant impact in the EPL - but thats my choice. Did have Hendo in at one point, and might even downgrade to him at some point as I think he'll be a real leader for Liverpool, and on pens.

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  6. davistom
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Now the question is whether promoted sides having favorable fixtures at start helped them in staying up. 🙂

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  7. Kase II
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Whether or not promoted teams win or lose though is largely irrelevant.

    More important is whether or not teams can keep clean sheets or attacking players can score goals.

    Carroll scores a hat trick in one of the first games of 2010.

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    1. Link
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 5 months ago

      The good old days. I remember Carroll-Tevez-Berbatov (I think) was a dream

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  8. golteb12345
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Hey.

    What do you guys think about King on Bournemounth?
    He played winger in Blackburn, but he is actually a striker and the manager have used him in the pre season as a striker.

    On FPL he stands as a midfielder, but his main possesion is striker...#5 million.
    Thank you for any answar.

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    1. Tiamani Warrior
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 5 months ago

      think wilson is nailed so do bournemouth ever play two upfront?

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  9. DrChaos
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    I have Ritchie and Deeney as a rotating attacking pair and Ruddy/Rudd combo as my keepers. Will certainly root for the added enthusiasm of the PL for the promoted teams! 😀

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  10. ARoyle
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Where has the Pre-Season section gone from the Website?

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    1. Jax
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 5 months ago

      updating

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  11. PogChamp
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Thought as much. Thanks for the post.

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  12. Pinturicchio
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    While I seriously doubt there is any meaningful correlation between promoted teams' early form and the fact of their being promoted teams, this isn't anywhere near a large enough sample size to make that call.

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  13. george jp
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    A or B

    A: Hazard and sinclair
    B:mane and sterling.

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  14. Template
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    After a few days of tinkering I think I'm nearing my final draft:

    Ruddy, Butland* (good rotations for first 9 weeks)
    Azpili, Baines, Mertesacker, Baker*, Simpson*
    Hazard, Hendo, Depay, Ibe, Wanyama*
    Rooney, Benteke, Kane

    Any thoughts very much appreciated!

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  15. Amateur Pundit Zan
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 5 months ago

    Nice one, thanks

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  16. george jp
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 4 months ago

    A or B

    A: Hazard and sinclair
    B:fabregas and cazorla

    also mane/cazorla/walcott/firmino...

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  17. trikster102
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 4 months ago

    The problem with this is when it comes to Fantasy Football, it's not about how well the team as a whole does, it's about the individuals in those teams. Last season QPR went down, yet we all had Austin in our teams.

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  18. The Reptile
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 4 months ago

    Why is no one picking Darmian?

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