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11 September 2015 1268 comments
Mathematically Safe Mathematically Safe
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In what has been a largely unpredictable start to the season for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, we take a look at the defensive statistics of the first four Gameweeks to review how the performance of the teams is impacting on points tallies to this point.

In many ways the importance of team form is more pronounced for the defensive positions than it is in attacking areas.

Whereas a forward can play in a largely uninspiring team but still nick a goal, the best defenders can have clean sheet points taken away by a single slip from another player. FPL managers look for attacking potential to mitigate this, but stoic central defenders can also be valuable if they are part of a solid collective unit. Therefore, it is important to look at the defence in context of the team’s strengths as well as the individual’s.

For this analysis, we will use the team data available in the member’s area. The following chart ranks the teams by Opta’s metric ‘Bad Touches’ (in ascending order), from the ‘Disciplined’ teams who make limited mistakes and have high concentration, to the ‘Own Worst Enemy’ teams who have recorded many bad touches (see data table for reference below). The size of the circles denotes the rank of teams by crosses conceded, chances conceded, and big chances conceded (small is good, large is bad).

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  1. Mind över Mata
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Please help my little brother, what to do here?? We're thinking to save the transfer but thought the experts should be contacted 🙂

    Mignolet
    Kolarov, Naughton, Prodl, Gomez
    Pedro, Mahrez, Sanchez,
    Aguero (c), Gomis, Wilson

    Swartzer; Westwood, Richards, Silva*

    1. I Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      saving looks fine to me

    2. Keep the Faith
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Silva to Ayew and reassess Man City Mid next week or play Westwood ahead of Gomez

    3. kalmoffit
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Double Liverpool defence. Nice.

  2. Flynny
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Finally check on this wildcard team please before I call it a day.....how's it looking?

    Begovic McCarthy
    Kolarov shaw naughton Francis oshea
    Pedro sterling Sanchez mahrez Westwood
    Kun Wilson gomis

    What do u reckon?...cheers

    1. Keep the Faith
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Looks solid, I would prefer Yaya to Sterling (Yaya looks interested again this season) but it's down to personal preference (plus Sterling played rubbish the first two games I owned him, not just in my team but from the games I watched)

  3. F4L
    11 years, 1 month ago

    have silva and coutinho, is it worth transferring one out for -4 hit or just play 4-3-3?

    1. I Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Depends. What's the rest of your team?

  4. Ian Davis
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Naughton or Cedric?

    1. ryancroberts
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Based on Watfords scoring record. Naughton

    2. kalmoffit
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Naughton. Watford haven't scored for a month

    3. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Naughton

  5. Royal5
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Who did Curtouis owners replace him with? Not sure whether to go Bego, Ddg or Cech.

    1. Hibbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      It looks a split today between:

      DDG, Hart, Begovic.

      1. Royal5
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Leaning towards DDG even if i got Darmian. United have looked solid and needless to say Chelsea has not.

    2. leo_messi
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Fabianski

    3. I Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I went with Begovic

      1. Keep the Faith
        11 years, 1 month ago

        I would go Bego, cheapest route into Chelsea def (has to get better at some point) plus saves money and you can get similar Def from other teams at nearly same price

        1. Royal5
          11 years, 1 month ago

          Chelsea defense has been dreadful.

          1. Royal5
            11 years, 1 month ago

            I felt lucky to get those Curtouis penalty points.

            1. Weasel Boy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              11 years, 1 month ago

              Think from GW 7 Chelsea'so fixtures improve.
              Don't think they'll keep cleaning against Everton.

              1. Keep the Faith
                11 years, 1 month ago

                Sorry didn't realise it was a one week punt, read it as a GK until next WC 😉

                1. Keep the Faith
                  11 years, 1 month ago

                  Sorry that was meant to be a winked face lol

            2. Keep the Faith
              11 years, 1 month ago

              Chelsea have not been great as a whole tbh but I can see Mou sorting that out soon (he hopes)

  6. I Member
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Begovic (McCarthy)
    Kolarov, Shaw, Williams (Targett, Richards)
    Hazard, Ozil, Mane, Mahrez, Ritchie
    Aguero (c), Gomis (Diouf)

    Good to go or is there a hit that would be a clear improvement?

    1. Keep the Faith
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I have mane but not keen on there form and fixtures but can wait until next week (like you I will prob play him this week

      1. I Member
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Mane, Ozil and Hazard are all on the chopping block for me if they blank. Who you looking at as potential Mane replacements next week? Coutinho interests me but 0 ITB.

    2. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Looks OK to me

  7. Jeremiah
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on this bunch? 😀

    McCarthy
    Darmian - Kolorov - Francis
    Sanchez (C) - Ayew - Mahrez - Westwood
    Aguero - Diouf - Gomis

    Butland - Morgan - Richards - Silva

    1. Gooner Kebab
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Ready to go

    2. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Isn't Diouf doubtful?

      1. Jeremiah
        11 years, 1 month ago

        He certainly is. Decent fixtures after this week though.

        1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
          11 years, 1 month ago

          So who's playing this week?

          1. Jeremiah
            11 years, 1 month ago

            He could play yet. If not Morgan & Richards are ready on the bench.

            1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
              11 years, 1 month ago

              Better you than me. 😉

  8. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
    11 years, 1 month ago

    I'm probably alone in this, but I love it when, for whatever reason, a widely-owned player like Silva is out (I own him). It's not a "lol@" kind of love, but more of a "everyone must do something, so I might as well too" kind of love. If your playing style is active, then you always have moves you would like to make, so when a big player is out, it frees you. Yes, I know that Silva could score big next week when he comes back, but by then the whole pictire has changed. Moving out a player like Silva is always scary, but whe you have to move him out (or when moving him out will not punish you this week), it allows you to try something else you've had in mind.

    1. Gooner Kebab
      11 years, 1 month ago

      right, Silva to KDB it is.

      1. The Suspended One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        11 years, 1 month ago

        lolz

        1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
          11 years, 1 month ago

          *exactly

    2. Numb
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I know what you mean

    3. Dr Dream
      11 years, 1 month ago

      agreed.

    4. Jeremiah
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Tempted to bring in KDB now....

      1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
        11 years, 1 month ago

        He mocks this above, but this is exactly what I'm saying: everyone who thought they might like oto give KDB a try has an excuse and a free pass (ie, pretty easy to switch back if it fails).

    5. 32chickens
      11 years, 1 month ago

      opportunity knocks

      1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah, as usual I used too many words . . .

    6. Sergeant Garcia
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I know the feeling, but would you do it for a hit?

      1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
        11 years, 1 month ago

        No, that's not what this is about, but of course one's personal circumstances might call for it. I suppose if you had a 4-pointer in mind previously, then Silva is out, again it frees you to do it without the bite (from Silva) you might otherwise have.

  9. The Suspended One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 1 month ago

    A) Hazard to Sanchez for Free
    B) Myhill to Begovich for Free
    C) Start Hazard and Myhill, and save FT

    1. Keep the Faith
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Other keeper?

    2. I Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      B

  10. Nazz
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Hello everyone

    This Silva news is annoying

    Current mids are

    Silva, Depay, Mahrez, Sanchez and Anya

    I cant play Anya so should I swap Silva for KDB, Yaya, Pedro or someone else

    Money no issue

    Cheers

    1. Sergeant Garcia
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Silva > KDB

    2. Keep the Faith
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Ayew?

      1. Nazz
        11 years, 1 month ago

        i have gomis and im not sure how long this swansea run will continue

    3. Mind över Mata
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Keep hold of Silva, only likely to be out a week

      1. Nazz
        11 years, 1 month ago

        yer but it will only cost me 0.1 to bring him back in if he doesnt fall in price why bother keeping??

        1. Keep the Faith
          11 years, 1 month ago

          Maybe Silva to Yaya then and reassess in a couple of weeks, should get roughly same points, Silva rarely explodes but keeps ticking over so no worry losing out on his points for a couple of weeks

  11. Dr Dream
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Time to make a second team in UFPL based on Aguero. That game is really growing on me. Does anybody else have more than one team using different approaches ?

  12. Sergeant Garcia
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Who do i play?: Darmian (LIV) or Morgan (AVL)

    1. Numb
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Morgan

      1. Keep the Faith
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Morgan

        1. Sergeant Garcia
          11 years, 1 month ago

          Thanks!

      2. Sergeant Garcia
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers!

  13. Mind över Mata
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Pick two to play:

    A) Westwood
    B) Gomez (playing Migs)
    C) Prodl
    D) Richards

    1. Keep the Faith
      11 years, 1 month ago

      A and C for me

      1. Mind över Mata
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers pal, you've been v active tonight

        1. Keep the Faith
          11 years, 1 month ago

          I do have my moments where I try to help all posts lol, been here and it's been quiet over the last few days so glad to try and help ppl out

    2. I Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      AD

  14. Rinseboy
    11 years, 1 month ago

    The question is...is silva to KDB for a hit worth it?!?

    1. Jeremiah
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Not for a hit imo.

    2. Numb
      11 years, 1 month ago

      No

    3. Nazz
      11 years, 1 month ago

      no

    4. Keep the Faith
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Depends on your subs and to some extent captain

    5. Mind över Mata
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      No

    6. Rinseboy
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Aggghhhh you are all right. Please do something Westwood!

      1. Numb
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Unlikely

        1. Rinseboy
          11 years, 1 month ago

          Right I'm getting KDB in for a hit

          1. Numb
            11 years, 1 month ago

            lol OK

  15. Numb
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Rooney has a fitness test in the morning

  16. Grandcentral
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Unconfirmed: Wayne Rooney has a 'hamstring issue' [daniel taylor, guardian]

  17. Jeremiah
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Silva > KDB done.

    1. Rinseboy
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Free?

      1. Jeremiah
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Yep.

    2. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Hope it works for you. Not telling whom I brought in for Silva, as I will be mocked (it was a facilitative move).

      1. Numb
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Go on....we won't laugh...

        1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
          11 years, 1 month ago

          Yes, you will. I'm having Chadli, so I can have funds to turn my dead third striker into Benteke (or similar) or Payet into the RIGHT Citeh mid next GW )or whtever else seems right when everything changes next week!).

  18. King H
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Guys need some advice on whether to WC this lot OR just use the free transfer. Teams in a mess so any feedback would be appreciated.

    http://i.imgur.com/LibEalF.jp

    Thanks in advance

    1. Numb
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Might as well WC

  19. King H
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Lets try that again lol.

    http://i.imgur.com/LibEalF.jpg

    1. Keep the Faith
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Looks OK this week, not worth a WC this late in GW, ask again tomorrow night 🙂

      1. King H
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Lol thanks

  20. _Ninja_
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Worth a hit in the longer term?.

    A. Courtois -> Cech/Fabianski -4
    B. Play McCarthy not hit

    Cheers

    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      If McCarthy gets good save points your hit might be less than a wash. On the other hand, you might never get around to using a FT to make the switch, so this is a better time than most to take a hit for a GK.

      1. _Ninja_
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers, for the hit, which one would you go with?

        1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
          11 years, 1 month ago

          Fab

          1. _Ninja_
            11 years, 1 month ago

            Cheers

  21. King H
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Rooney out . Martial time.

    1. BrockLanders
      11 years, 1 month ago

      More like Benteke time!!

  22. Dre
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 1 month ago

    @Mark

    I'm equally fearful of going without Mahrez/Kolarov.

    Glad we've got such different teams though, keeps things interesting!

  23. BrockLanders
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Looks like the FPL has crashed. Too many last minute Aguero to Mahrez captain swaps..

  24. BraceDball
    11 years, 1 month ago

    I need help. Roster below:

    Cech
    Kompany, Kolarov, Martin
    Ayew (c), Pedro, Payet, D. Silva
    Gomis, Wilson, Vardy

    Bench; Given, Clyne, Hoban, Mahrez.

    Thoughts? Will Mahrez play a lot this weekend? Should I put him in for either Pedro or Payet or sub out Vardy? Thanks and Cheers.

    1. I Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Silva is injured. Start Mahrez or make him your 1st sub so that he autosubs in for Silva. Risky not having Aguero. Good luck!

  25. Ten Season Wonder
    11 years, 1 month ago

    SUN DREAM TEAM - who's the best 3m defender to go with until next window guys??

  26. team77
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Should I replace Romero with De Gea?

  27. Mamba
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Dilemma Dilemma Pick a starting 7 please

    Aguero,Benteke,Wilson
    Hazard,Sterling,Mahrez,Ayew,Chadli

    As crazy as it sounds, thinking of dropping hazard

  28. Boydinho
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Diouf!!!