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11 September 2015 1268 comments
Mathematically Safe Mathematically Safe
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In what has been a largely unpredictable start to the season for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, we take a look at the defensive statistics of the first four Gameweeks to review how the performance of the teams is impacting on points tallies to this point.

In many ways the importance of team form is more pronounced for the defensive positions than it is in attacking areas.

Whereas a forward can play in a largely uninspiring team but still nick a goal, the best defenders can have clean sheet points taken away by a single slip from another player. FPL managers look for attacking potential to mitigate this, but stoic central defenders can also be valuable if they are part of a solid collective unit. Therefore, it is important to look at the defence in context of the team’s strengths as well as the individual’s.

For this analysis, we will use the team data available in the member’s area. The following chart ranks the teams by Opta’s metric ‘Bad Touches’ (in ascending order), from the ‘Disciplined’ teams who make limited mistakes and have high concentration, to the ‘Own Worst Enemy’ teams who have recorded many bad touches (see data table for reference below). The size of the circles denotes the rank of teams by crosses conceded, chances conceded, and big chances conceded (small is good, large is bad).

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  1. wedgec
    11 years, 1 month ago

    a) Westwood & Benteke
    b) Sako & Gomis (3 swans)

    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. il Brutto
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Tough one maybe a in your case.

  2. Torres76
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Who to drop out of this lot

    Ayew l Yaya l Sanchez l mahrez | Pedro

    Wilson | Gomis | Ageuro

    Cheers gang 🙂

    1. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Yaya 🙁

      1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Yaya Toure has found the back of the net in each of Man City's last three league matches against Crystal Palace.

    2. wedgec
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Tough. Might have to be Wilson. Or play your all out attack.

      1. Torres76
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Or should that all out attack be reserved for a double gameweek?

        1. wedgec
          11 years, 1 month ago

          I don't know. It was briefly mentioned on the scoutcast and someone brought up the point defs can be as good as atts on dgw

        2. Iain Dowies Love Child
          11 years, 1 month ago

          Nah, triple captain for a DGW

    3. Junebug
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Ive got same team and im torn between wilson and gomis. Think im dropping wilson though as with montero back think swansea sure to score v watford

  3. Cilly Bonnolly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Any word on Diouf? Worth a hit to get Wilson in if he's injured?

    1. Epic Fail
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Depends who will come on for him for you.

      1. Cilly Bonnolly
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Westwood

    2. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Worth to get Wilson even if he's not injured. After Norwich he is facing Sunderland at home...

  4. joinho
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Captaining De Bruyne in ultimate why the hell not

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Can always cover a failure.

    2. Vardy Gras PBFC
      11 years, 1 month ago

      The beauty of UFPL, who is your MD2 backup?

      1. joinho
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Kane, Mahrez, Albrighton, Vardy, and Payet for MD3

    3. Dr Dream
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I've captained Silva every week and that's worked out pretty well awesome.

  5. the axolotl
    11 years, 1 month ago

    john o'shea if he drops to 4.3 and nailed on? not suggesting sunderland are not brutal but they've kept lots of cleanies over last few years with a similarly awful team.

    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      It's the nailed on I worry about.

      1. the axolotl
        11 years, 1 month ago

        not this week. and if i buy, he's really an enabler with occasional games. think advocaat has realised they're all fairly poor, so whomever doesn't start next of the 3 contending CB's must be properly awful it his mind

        1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
          11 years, 1 month ago

          As an enabler you could do worse.

    2. Somalion
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Not with Kaboul laying his eggs in their water supply.

      1. the axolotl
        11 years, 1 month ago

        ha, there's an image i could do without. 4.3 and playing at all is fairly attention worthy imo tho

        1. Somalion
          11 years, 1 month ago

          I'm a tad cautious. First and foremost, we need the performances and the assurance he's nailed on. It depends how stretched for cash you are of course, but with so many cheap options it seems rather safe to avoid for a while yet!

          1. the axolotl
            11 years, 1 month ago

            if he plays and does ok this week i might use him in order to faciltiate myhill to begovic. one of those exact funds needed quandries

    3. Greenbackbøøg…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      They've quietly become a bit better recently, I think we could be buying Sunderland defenders soon

      1. the axolotl
        11 years, 1 month ago

        they haven't become an even worse team overnight after all 😉

  6. Vardy Gras PBFC
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Pairing question UFPL:

    A Rondon and Wijnaldum, or
    B Cisse and Morrison

    Looks obviously A to me, but just wondering if there was any support for B.

    1. Iain Dowies Love Child
      11 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. waitinginthelonggrass
      11 years, 1 month ago

      A

    3. Dr Dream
      11 years, 1 month ago

      A

    4. joinho
      11 years, 1 month ago

      A

    5. Vardy Gras PBFC
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Cheers all.

  7. Hardly Athletic
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Pedro & Sagna or YYT & Kolarov?

    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Pedro and Kola, but of those YYT and Kola.

  8. Iain Dowies Love Child
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Wesley Hoolahan your time is now - well tomorrow at 15.00 to be precise

  9. ZakAFC_
    11 years, 1 month ago

    What to do with this team?

    Ruddy (Butland)
    Kolarov, Azpi, Cedric (Huth, Francis)
    Hazard, Özil, Mahrez, Chadli (Wanyama)
    Agüero (c), Benteke, Wilson

    1FT, 0.9 ITB

    1. Iain Dowies Love Child
      11 years, 1 month ago

      You're a Gooner so has to be Haz-Sanchez

      1. ZakAFC_
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Don't want Alexis and Özil

        1. Iain Dowies Love Child
          11 years, 1 month ago

          Sorry didn't see Ozil in there - I'd bank your FT

  10. HurriKane
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Who'd you prefer guys ?

    Silva --->

    A) Pedro

    B) Chadli

    C) Yaya

    D) Keep

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      11 years, 1 month ago

      FT?

      1. HurriKane
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Nope had to use it to ship coutinho for ayew. bench has bad fixtures and im willing to take the hit

    2. Man Chest Hair United
      11 years, 1 month ago

      A

    3. Farcelona
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Hold.

    4. Iain Dowies Love Child
      11 years, 1 month ago

      D

  11. Davido989
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Bellerin or Cresswell?

    First to 273

    1. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Has to be... Uhm

      Close one but Cresswell

    2. Je suis le chat
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Cresswell, nailed and performing with great fixtures.

    3. Davido989
      11 years, 1 month ago

      271 more

  12. waitinginthelonggrass
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Start Deeney vs Swansea or Huth vs Villa?

    1. Epic Fail
      11 years, 1 month ago

      D

      1. waitinginthelonggrass
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Always the D

    2. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      IMO Huth

    3. Farcelona
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Huth

    4. Marquis-Cha-Cha
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Lost a couple articles ago.

      Which 3 would you all play?

      Kola - Williams, Cedric, Huth, Francis.

      Currently on: Kola - Huth - Williams.

    5. Marquis-Cha-Cha
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Damn! Post FAIL.

  13. il Brutto
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Who's the better option Bellerin or Shaw?

    1. Farcelona
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Shaw

    2. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Uniteds fixtures are horrific except Sunderland in a week or two. Hector

    3. Demí
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I think Arsenal's fixtures are better so Bellerin

    4. Vardy Gras PBFC
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I'd go with Shaw because of the Debuchy factor.

    5. Nascimento
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I'd go with Shaw because I'm Utd until I die and Glorie Glorie

  14. Farcelona
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Right, so I'm considering using 2 FTs before the deadline to do Diouf to Wilson and Redmond to Westwood. This will leave me with £2m to upgrade Payet to Pedro tomorrow night (assuming nothing unusual happens).

    Should I do it?

    Current team:

    Butland - McCarthy
    Kompany - Darmian - Gomez - Richards - Oxford
    Silva - Sanchez - Payet - Mahrez - Redmond
    Aguero - Gomis - Diouf

    Thanks in advance!

    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Sounds like a good plan--although such plans gang aft agley.

  15. st4rt__
    11 years, 1 month ago

    https://i.gyazo.com/6d5c5a352ad9e70e5f7672453bfbf1a0.png

    Feeling extremely confident this week.

    1. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Almost the same exact attack. Giving the armband to Mahrez over Aguerez though

    2. Bertzeiner-m
      11 years, 1 month ago

      As you should with a team like that.

  16. Bertzeiner-m
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Captaining Mahrez is giving me anxiety. Or rather not captaining Kun, whichever it is. I have not gotten a single captaincy decision right thus far and another blank from Aguero would push me over the edge. My brain says Mahrez but my heart says Kun, or maybe its the other way around. Mahrez or Aguero? Anyone feel like a quick poll?

    1. Greenbackbøøg…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I'm feeling the same, I don't know what to do anymore captainwise

    2. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Had a hard time deciding between both. Went with Mahrez. Benefits:

      A) Facing Villa at home
      B) Leicester on red hot goal scoring form
      C) Mahrez is on red hot home goal scoring form
      D) Midfielder gets the extra point for the goal, and a potential clean sheet
      E) Playing on a Sunday so always that 'peace' that your captain is yet to play
      F) Watch him score a brace

  17. JK - Cønt ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Right I think I am GTG

    Ruddy

    Kolarov, Huth, Cedric

    Sterling, Sanchez, Mane, Mahrez

    Aguero (c), Wilson, Benteke

    Rudd, Westwood, Francis, Prodl

    1. Farcelona
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Solid.

    2. pundit of punts
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Very nice.

    3. Jafooli
      11 years, 1 month ago

      100+ points right there....

  18. THE Wild Rover
    11 years, 1 month ago

    5.8m in the bank. Crazy stuff 😀

    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Win the Lotto ?

    2. Jafooli
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I've stared offering credit cards....

  19. The Rock
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Butland
    Richards, Kolarov, Cresswell
    Mahrez, Yaya, Sanchez, Payet
    Aguero, Pelle, Diouf
    McCarthey, Westwood, Gomez, Ward

    Any advise on transfer i should do this week? Diouf to Wilson or Gomis? 2M in the bank, 1 FT

    1. Jolly Good
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Gomis

    2. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Diouf to Wilson. Next week Yaya to Silva/KDB

    3. Bertzeiner-m
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Wilson

      1. The Rock
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks lads, think i am going to go for Wilson.

  20. Je suis le chat
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Play Gomez (man u) or Richards (lei)? Ta.

    1. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Oooo

      Has to be Gomez

      1. Je suis le chat
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks, I'll prob go with Gomez. Already playing Westwood. Thankfully easier fixtures nxt week.

  21. pundit of punts
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Saving my FT. Team for the weekend.

    Myhill
    Kolarov - Nyom - Targett
    Sanchez - Pedro - Mahrez - Westwood
    Aguero - Benteke - Wilson

    McCarthy - Gomez - Muniesa - Silva

    Nothing in the bank.

    Good to go?

    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      all good

      might need one of those FTs next week to get a keeper

      1. pundit of punts
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Agreed.

        Lets see what Pulis and Pardew have to offer us this weekend.

    2. Farcelona
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Yes

      1. pundit of punts
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers.

  22. Jeremiah
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Best move? 🙂

    A. Silva > KDB
    B. Silva > Sterling
    C. Silva > Pedro

    1. Wouter
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I did C.

    2. Farcelona
      11 years, 1 month ago

      D. Keep

      However, Pedro out of those 3 if you have no Chelsea cover.

    3. Jolly Good
      11 years, 1 month ago

      B or C

    4. Epic Fail
      11 years, 1 month ago

      A

  23. Davido989
    11 years, 1 month ago

    When is Bertrand back?

    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      "Ryan is more close than Jordy," said Koeman. "Ryan is also doing some parts of the sessions.

      "I have good hope that he will start training with the whole group from next Monday, but you have to understand that he didn’t have pre-season and that’s always difficult for a player, because three months without any game, three months without any good training sessions in football is a long time."

      1. pundit of punts
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Sounds like we can get 2-3 gws min out of Targett.

    2. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Maybe Next week or the week after. He should be back in full training next week

    3. Davido989
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks guys

    4. THE Wild Rover
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Targett good for a few weeks yet

    5. Paulodi.canio
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Too soon a couple of weeks max i think

  24. mad_beer ✅
    11 years, 1 month ago

    FPL makes me make my own decisions and pay the consequences of them. I hate that. I need someone to blame.

    1. Jeremiah
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Hahaha same here come to think of it! 😀

  25. zuzuViking
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Silva -> Sanchez/Pedro or play Huth?

  26. Pablitto
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Final WC team - please thoughts:

    Bego / McC

    Kolarov Smalling Gomez Targett Saylor
    Pedro KdB Ayew Mata Sinclair
    A-W-G

    1. Pablitto
      11 years, 1 month ago

      0,1 itb

    2. Epic Fail
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Who are the strikers?

      1. Pablitto
        11 years, 1 month ago

        The classic three: Aguero Wilson Gomis

      2. Paulodi.canio
        11 years, 1 month ago

        Aguero gomis wilson i think

    3. Declan
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I like it

    4. Elijah's Wood
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I dislike the 2 £4m defenders, considering Targett will stop playing in a couple weeks. Gomez could unpredictably lose his spot, and Saylor has some unfavourable upcoming fixtures. Aside from that your front 8 are great, KDB is unproven but could be worth his price, prefer Sterling for £1m cheaper

  27. Norb
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Why is everyone transferring Silva out, isn't he just out for a week?

    1. Iain Dowies Love Child
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Yup - crazy

    2. Jazz!
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Panic transfers and that Westwood is their only potential replacement if benching Silva. Which is why I have a fully playing front 8. Didn't have any city mids anyway

    3. Jeremiah
      11 years, 1 month ago

      10.2 sitting on the bench is a lot.

    4. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      11 years, 1 month ago

      Plenty don't want 10+ on the bench and don't like their 8th attacker.

    5. Pablitto
      11 years, 1 month ago

      with WC it has a sense

    6. Je suis le chat
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I'll wait a week or so but concerned with KDB's arrival.

    7. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      11 years, 1 month ago

      I agree in principle, but I have been waiting for an excuse to shake things up. I don't dare take out a healthy Silva right now, but if he's knackered, even for one week, it frees me to make a move I've been wanting to make (never had my eye on Silva as the means, but wheyhey!).

    8. Elijah's Wood
      11 years, 1 month ago

      On a WC so was a little more swayed to get rid

  28. Harvey Specter
    11 years, 1 month ago

    I`ll try again. On WC and I still have Silva.

    A) Silva, Scott Sinclair and a 4.7 defender*
    B) YYT, Mahrez and a 4.8 defender*

    *Not Gomez, Oxford or Targett.

    1. Je suis le chat
      11 years, 1 month ago

      B) and maybe JEvans

  29. Woy of the Wovers
    11 years, 1 month ago

    I'm a bit sceptical of this article. Well presented and argued but I feel there is a massive fiddle factor in the measure of the opposition. I've tried doing something similar but have withheld results because I'm not convinced I've got it right. My concern is more to do with team stats that seem to be more sensitive to sample risk. For example, Chelsea concede lots of chances > the teams they played create lots of chances. I've not yet figured it out so I'll remain a sceptic.

  30. Marquis-Cha-Cha
    11 years, 1 month ago

    Lost a couple articles ago.

    Which 3 would you all play?

    Kola - Williams, Cedric, Huth, Francis.

    Currently on: Kola - Huth - Williams.