Just how much does success in Fantasy Football depend on luck?
It’s a million dollar question, the answer to which may well win you a million dollars one day.
Luck has always been a factor I’ve acknowledged, not least when jousting with Granville on the ScoutCast. Similarly, every season when we interview another humble Fantasy Premier League champion, they cite a healthy dollop of luck as a key component of their success.
Arguably, however, Fantasy Football managers can manufacture their own brand of luck – both good and bad.
Recently, I think I can make a pretty good case for claiming that I’ve been dealt a duff hand or two.
Back in Gameweek three, I laid down the Wildcard and refreshed my team. In that selection, I made some crucial errors. However, those errors have been exposed and punished rather cruelly.
First up, when considering a Bournemouth defender for the strong run of fixtures looming, I opted for captain Tommy Elphick over the raiding Simon Francis. Foolishly, I was anticipating a price drop for Francis, allowing me to do an automatic trade soonafter and gain 0.1 in profit. That opportunity never materialised.
Three weeks later, the unexpected happened. Elphick was struck down by injury and hasn’t featured since. Elphick was ever-present in Bournemouth’s championship winning campaign – no injuries, no suspensions.
Next, I decided to take a risk on Joe Gomez of Liverpool. He’d played the opening three matches and had kept clean sheets in all three. Against the odds, he appeared to be a wise budget investment in a settled Liverpool back four.
After a severe slump, in Gameweek 6, Brendan Rodgers dropped Gomez to his bench and shifted to a 3-5-2 shape that looks set to exclude the 19-year-old from his plans.
That event was synced perfectly with Elphick’s injury, leaving me with three active defenders.
To compound matters further, Luke Shaw was then struck down by a season-ending injury.
Suddenly, just three weeks after my Wildcard, I had two defenders, and one of them was Micah Richards.
Added to that, David Silva missed the Gameweek 5 trip to Palace and then picked up a calf injury in his warm-up for the Gameweek 6 home clash with West Ham.
Then Alex McCarthy got dropped for the visit to Watford. I opted to play the former Reading keeper at Vicarage Road and watched while Palace earned a first shut-out of the season, only their second in 21 matches under Alan Pardew.
In the same weekend, Callum Wilson also suffered a season-ending injury at Stoke.
Added to this, Swansea pairing, Bafe Gomis and Andre Ayew have transformed from a vibrant goal threat, to impotent uncertainties. Swansea have scored just a single goal since I doubled up on their attacking duo.
That long list of “misfortune” would doubtless have been shared by some of you. Others will have their own list of ill-fated events to back their case to claim “bad luck”.
However, when I look back on those incidents, I can’t help but see where I went wrong.
Elphick was the wrong choice. Gomez and McCarthy were never nailed-on starters in the long-term. Silva is known to be fragile and potentially injury-prone, Shaw definitely is. Swansea’s early attacking form took us by surprise, regression seemed likely.
While it’s perhaps unfortunate that my events chained together in such a short window, most of those pitfalls could have been avoided had I considered and acted upon some of the doubts surrounding those players.
I can curse the Fantasy Gods all I like but I know my pleas for a turn of fortune deserve to fall on deaf ears: I’ve perhaps been unlucky that my errors have been punished but they were my errors.
I’ve dug the hole I find myself in, I’ve got to figure out a way of clambering out again. If I do find a way, Granville will doubtless claim that luck played a part.
