Following on from yesterday’s assessment of double Gameweek defensive assets, we now switch to the sharp end of the pitch to analyse the leading candidates for goals and assists.
As we mentioned in the first installment, the Gameweek 37 schedule divides the eight teams perfectly, with four treated to home fixtures, while the other quartet face two away trips.
It’s safe to say that West Ham, Sunderland, Norwich and Liverpool – all with home encounters – are again our best starting point for analysis.
With Dimitri Payet (8.5) topping our current Captain Poll and Andy Carroll (6.5) and Mark Noble (5.5) joining the Frenchman as three of the top five FPL signings this week, there’s little doubt that most are looking to West Ham to provide the big attacking points.
The Hammers still have the motivation of an unlikely Champions League spot on their radar, something that could become more of a reality should Norwich see off Manchester United in Saturday’s opener and Arsenal beat Manchester City on Sunday.
Slaven Bilic’s side will be heavily backed to earn three points against Swansea – a side that has been unable to deal with Carroll’s physicality in the past and who have displayed an obvious weakness from crossed balls. That tells you all you need to know about our views on both Carroll and Payet.
Tuesday’s home meeting with United could be equally profitable given that Louis van Gaal’s defence has not displayed the same resilience on their travels. Carroll, should he start back-to-back matches, could be key again, while Payet’s set-piece duel with David de Gea has already been a feature this season.
Noble’s popularity has been boosted by an improbable four goals in his last two outings and, while he remains the designated penalty taker, we’re skeptical on his value over opting for the trio of Payet, Carroll and Aaron Cresswell at the back.
Elsewhere, Manuel Lanzini (4.9) has shown he can deliver returns but could suffer from curtailed pitch time, while Cheikhou Kouyate (5.2) is another option for those intent on breaking up the suggested Hammers template trio.
Overall, West Ham’s attacking asset look to be our top drawer options – they’ve scored 15 goals over the past six Gameweeks and their players will surely be queuing up in a bid to score the final goal at the Boleyn Ground when they face United on Tuesday.
The Sunderland attack is basically represented by Jermain Defoe (5.3), with the 14-goal striker carrying the burden for Sam Allardyce’s men, whilst also rivaling Carroll as our premium Gameweek 37 striker option.
Despite Allardyce hinting at rotation over the final fixtures, it seems unfeasible that he will not turn to Defoe to start all three, with the likes of Fabio Borini, Wahbi Khazri, Duncan Watmore and Jeremain Lens rotating in the support roles on either flank.
Liverpool’s attacking options are far more complex. Their potential relies heavily on the outcome of tonight’s Europa League tie and we’ll happily caveat our analysis by saying that, should Jurgen Klopp’s men exit to Villarreal, then our appraisal of their assets would require a rethink.
A defeat to the Spaniards would likely see Klopp field a stronger side against Watford on Sunday, with a first-choice line-up expected for the visit of Chelsea in midweek.
As it is, James Milner (6.7) presents the safest option on show, supported by the potentially explosive talents of Philippe Coutinho (8.2), Roberto Firmino (8.3) and Daniel Sturridge (10.2) – all of whom will likely struggle to earn two Gameweek 37 starts.
At first glance there appears to be little cause to even consider the Norwich attack. With no goals in their last three, there’s scant evidence to suggest that they’ll break out of this dry spell for Carrow Road clashes with Manchester United and Watford.
However, for those seeking to gamble on differentials, Alex Neil’s squad may just boast two ready-made budget candidates in Robbie Brady (5.4) and Nathan Redmond (5.0).
Both are light on the pocket and will be charged with providing the creativity and threat from the flanks as Neil continues to shuffle his central pairing.
As we shift to assess those teams with a pair of away Gameweek 37 fixtures, are eyes are immediately dazzled by the prospects of Chelsea’s Eden Hazard (10.8).
Having been inexplicably ordinary throughout an faltering Blues campaign, last season’s PFA Player of the Year has sprung to life firing three goals in two matches, including the sublime strike that handed the title to Leicester on Monday.
Goals aside, the hunger appears to be back in Hazard’s game and suddenly we’re looking at his lofty price tag rather differently. With end of season Triple Captain chips still lingering, Hazard’s potential to explode points from the Chelsea midfield against Sunderland and Liverpool has become a serious temptation.
There are other assets in Guus Hiddink’s re-invigorated squad. Cesc Fabregas (8.4) has shown glimpses of the form that saw him register 19 assists last term – three double figure hauls in eight appearances from Gameweeks 27 to 35 suggests that he could see further profit.
Willian (7.0) has been Chelsea’s most consistent performer over the season and remains a key figure on set-pieces, whilst Pedro’s (8.8) run of five league goals in seven appearances was halted on Monday night when Hazard replaced him to great effect. Pedro’s stock has taken a significant knock as a result.
Diego Costa (10.5) would also be a key option were it not for the appeal of both Defoe and Carroll in the forward slots. The Spain international is without a goal in three starts but has fired eight goals and five assists under Hiddink’s reign: he’s been involved in 52% of Chelsea’s goals whilst on the pitch following the Dutchman’s arrival as manager.
Manchester United’s attack has only been worthy of our attention on brief occasions this season, mainly as we monitored the progress of starlet strikers Anthony Martial (7.6) and Marcus Rashford (4.7).
That pair continue to provide the key targets in Louis van Gaal’s often stilted attack.
It should be noted that, while both Martial and Rashford have form and United will have gained confidence from their FA Cup semi-final victory, they have scored more than once in just a single league match in their last eight fixtures – against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 34.
Martial and Rashford, perhaps supplied by Wayne Rooney in his new midfield role, could deliver against Norwich and West Ham but we remain unconvinced that Van Gaal’s attack provides the necessary verve to deliver significant profit.
That leaves us with the Everton and Watford attacks to consider.
The latter presents a straightforward choice between the in-form Troy Deeney (5.3) and the woefully out of sorts Odion Ighalo (5.6). Deeney’s dramatic late brace against a hapless Aston Villa defence last weekend underlined his potential heading into Gameweek 37 but he still represents a gamble for ties at Liverpool and Norwich given the Hornets slump in form this calendar year.
Picking through Everton’s multi-layered options remains problematic, with the obvious route to Romelu Lukaku (8.7) blocked by miserable form and memories of his bitterly disappointing Gameweek 34 displays.
The Belgian is without a league goal in six starts, with Everton scoring just four goals in those matches – two of which arrived against an obliging end of season Bournemouth defence on Saturday with Lukaku benched.
After gatecrashing Leicester’s party on Saturday, the Toffees will pay visit to a Sunderland side battling for their lives. These two fixtures offer little incentive to re-assess Lukaku or the fading star that is Ross Barkley (7.0) – a player who has returned just a single assist in his last 11 league outings.
The Top Targets
Dimitri Payet – fresh from mopping up at West Ham’s annual awards, the mercurial Frenchman will be looking to extend the form that’s harvested returns in seven of his last ten starts. The most assured 180-minute man on offer and the most consistent scorer available. A no-brainer.
Andy Carroll – with five goals an assist and seven bonus points over his last four Gameweeks, Carroll is in fearsome form ahead of colliding with a Swansea defence that’s never been able to nullify his threat. After that, Carroll will surely be amongst those bidding to score the final goal at the Boleyn Ground when the Hammers face United.
Jermain Defoe – the former Hammer is the other striker that’s hit prime form to coincide with two Gameweek 37 outings. Sunderland’s chances of rescuing top-flight survival surely depend on Defoe’s ability to find the net and two home fixtures against Chelsea and Everton will likely see him add to his 14-goal tally.
The Differentials
Eden Hazard – we’ve almost seen a complete transformation in Hazard’s form and attitude in recent weeks which has suddenly elevated him to the status of poster boy for those seeking a final hurrah and high “risk vs reward” option.
Diego Costa – his form under Hiddink is hugely impressive and while few will reserve a precious striker spot for the Chelsea man, he could well rival Carroll and Defoe for Gameweek 37 returns.
Nathan Redmond – few will consider Norwich City’s impotent attack heading into their final three fixtures, increasing Redmond’s potential as a cheap midfield difference-maker. Norwich have to score goals and win points and it’s difficult to see Redmond end the season without returns if they can somehow achieve that.
