After kick-starting our series of rotation articles with a look at Burnley and West Brom, we turn our attentions to the Hull and Middlesbrough pairing.
The promoted duo alternate home/away for 34 of the 38 matches in 2016/17 – Gameweeks 1 and 2 are the only exceptions to that run in the first half of the season, with the same scenario in Gameweeks 27 and 28 later on in the campaign.
The Fixtures
Both sides’ displays in front of their own fans were crucial last time around. Hull lost just one of their 23 fixtures at the KC, conceding 12 times and racking up 13 clean sheets, whilst at the back, they found the net on 47 occasions – more than any side at home in the Championship.
On the road, it was another matter for Steve Bruce’s outfit, who kept out their opponents on just seven occasions and lost ten times, scoring 22 and conceding 23 goals.
‘Boro, meanwhile, were even more resilient at home. Aitor Karanka’s troops shipped just eight goals at the Riverside and racked up 15 shut-outs, though were a little less attack-minded than Hull and netted 34 times by comparison.
Away from home, the Teeside team toiled somewhat – like Hull, they registered seven clean sheets and conceded 23 times, though scored 29 times and lost on seven occasions.
Suffice to say, then, that the duo’s form in front of their own supporters will be vital to their respective survival bids.
Assessing the schedules, by playing the most favourable fixtures over each of the first 20 Gameweeks, there would be just four occasions when you’d face one of last year’s top ten. Encouragingly, though, all these clashes would take place at home – against Spurs (GW6), Chelsea (GW7), Southampton (GW11) and Liverpool (GW16).
The remaining 16 matches would give you ten home fixtures (STO, CPL, WAT, STO, BOU, WBA, HUL, CPL, SWA, EVE) in addition to six road trips, which comprise of two visits to both Sunderland and West Brom, plus trips to Burnley and Everton.
Over the final 18 Gameweeks, the same pairing would see you face six of last year’s top ten by playing the fixtures (BOU, WHM, WBA, LIV, EVE, BUR, sto, SUN, eve, swa, MID, BUR, sto, WAT, MCI, SUN, cpl, TOT), with five of those on the road.
In terms of alternative partnerships for both clubs, Hull rotate with Stoke and Sunderland across 38 and 34 Gameweeks respectively. Middlesbrough alternate perfectly with champions Leicester over the full 38 matches, though the Foxes’ tally of 15 clean sheets in 2015/16 is set to elevate their main men into the mid-price or even premium bracket for next term.
If you’re looking to research further on rotation pairs, as mentioned in a previous article, we’ve introduced a new feature for members this season to help analyse potential fixture pairings via the Season Ticker. By selecting any team and hitting “sort by rotation”, the ticker now ranks those teams most appropriate for rotation with the highlighted team over the Gameweek range you choose to display. You can apply this using both the attacking and defence filters to analyse rotation pairings at both ends of the pitch.
Defence
Hull
Allan McGregor remains the Tigers’ number one for the season ahead. The Scot was placed just twelfth for total saves in last term’s Championship, though, whilst it’s worth noting that his average of 38.1 minutes per save in Hull’s 2014/15 Premier League campaign was the third–lowest of any stopper. McGregor faces a battle to oust Burnley’s Tom Heaton as our preferred keeper option amongst the promoted clubs.
Curtis Davies looks the most appealing route into Bruce’s rearguard. Top for Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI), he sat fifth for efforts inside the box for Hull last season, despite only finding the net on a couple of occasions. Fellow centre-half Michael Dawson affords the back-four plenty of experience but is far behind Davies for both CBI and goal threat.
Raiding left-back Andrew Robertson racked up three goals and four assists over the course of 2015/16. The Scot sat fourth overall for key passes for the Tigers and is rumoured to be a Liverpool target – if he stays put, his input in the final third could see him emerge as a viable option.
On the other side of defence, Moses Odubajo offers less of a threat in the final third. Signed from Brentford last term, he looks nailed-on in Bruce’s back-four and sat first for successful tackles and second when it came to interceptions last season – an indication he’ll perhaps be more suited as a DraftKings enabler.
Middlesbrough
Dimitrios Konstantopoulos started every league match under Karanka last term, though sat just ninth in the Championship for saves last season, producing 23 less than Burnley’s Heaton, for example. Reports today suggest that free agent Vitor Valdes is expected to sign up at the Riverside and the former Barcelona stopper would be favourite to clinch the spot as Karanka’s new number one.
Daniel Ayala was the standout option in Karanka’s back-four. The former Norwich centre-half produced more attempts on goal (30) than any defensive team-mate in 2015/16 and found the net on three occasions. He was the most impressive performer in terms of CBI last season, though has a penchant for falling foul of referees and earned seven cautions.
New signing Bernardo Espinoza may well be set to oust Ben Gibson for the role alongside Ayala. The Colombian’s average of four successful headers per appearance for Sporting Gijon last term is on a par with Ayala and far superior to Gibson’s 1.8, underlining his impact at both ends of the pitch. Indeed, a further delve into the data shows that Espinoza bettered Ayala for both Clearances and Blocks per appearance in 2015/16, suggesting he may even emerge as the better option if he settles into life at the Riverside.
Full-backs Emilio Nsue and George Friend both earned two assists apiece last term, though the former leads the way for goals, by three to one. Although Nsue’s frequency of both attempts on goal and key passes was quicker than Friend, there’s still a chance that Karanka may make more additions to his backline for the step up to the Premier League, making Ayala and, potentially, Espinoza, the most favourable looking options on Teeside for now.
A Hull/Middlesbrough combination is expected to set you back around 9.0 in Fantasy Premier League, with defensive regulars from both promoted sides likely to be priced at 4.5 apiece.
Attack
Hull
Both Robert Snodgrass and Mo Diame returned from injury to play a major part in their side’s immediate return to the top-flight.
Number one for dead-ball duties, Snodgrass chipped in with four goals and seven assists in 27 appearances last term, averaging a key pass every 30.1 minutes. Versatile enough to play on either flank, the Scot bagged 12 goals and 10 assists in two seasons for Norwich in the top-flight and will be desperate to atone for the 2014/15 campaign, where he played just once before sustaining a serious knee injury.
Diame also has plenty of Premier League know-how and is likely to remain as Bruce’s preferred option for the central support role. Offer a stronger goal threat than Snodgrass, he netted ten times last term and, like his team-mate, should come in around the 5.5 to 6.5 mark.
Spot-kick taker Abel Hernandez bagged 21 goals and chipped in with a couple of assists last term. Bruce’s preferred option for the lone striker in a 4-2-3-1 formation, the Uruguayan should come in around 6.0 and has the potential to emerge as this year’s Charlie Austin or Odion Ighalo – he needs to manage the step up to the Premier League better this time around, having scored just four times in Hull’s doomed 2014/15 campaign.
That trio aside, the Hull attack is likely to offer us slim pickings. Left winger Sam Clucas racked up six goals and eight assists last season but fell out of favour towards the business end and started just two of the final eight matches. Bruce leaned towards Ahmed Elmohamady on the right flank for the Play-Off fixtures and the Egyptian’s experience may well be called upon more often that not, leaving Clucas far more prone to rotation than the likes of Snodgrass and Diame.
Middlesbrough
Although they scored just 63 times last term – a tally bettered by seven other sides – Karanka’s side sat second only to Hull for attempts on goal in last year’s Championship, firing an average of 13.9 shots per match to the Tigers’ 16.
As discussed in our article on Middlesbrough’s promoted squad, though, their manager’s penchant for rotation in the final third is likely to limit the number of viable Fantasy options on offer and persuade most to focus their attentions solely on defence.
Jordan Rhodes bagged six goals and two assists in 18 league outings after arriving from Blackburn last winter. Although Rhodes should start the majority of matches up front, it’s worth noting that five of those appearances were as a sub, which underlines Karanka’s tactic of freshening up his options in attack. Given that he’s not on spot-kicks and lacks any Premier League experience, Rhodes – who should come in around 5.5 to 6.0 – may not be the best promoted option for our three-man frontlines.
New signing Viktor Fischer will be hoping to take up the role in “the hole” vacated by Gaston Ramirez’ loan return to Southampton. Arriving from Ajax this summer, the 22-year-old fired an effort every 29 minutes last term and is far more of a goal threat than creator. If he can remain immune to Karanka’s rotation, he could emerge as one to consider around the 6.0-mark, though will need time to settle into his new surrounds.
Stewart Downing is one of the few Middlesbrough players that boast a wealth of experience in the Premier League. Three goals and five assists last season is hardly enticing, though, and having been shifted from a central support role onto the flank, he could remain a peripheral figure in our Fantasy thoughts.
Like to Palace’s Yannick Bolasie in the past, Albert Adomah started 36 of Boro’s 46 matches in 2015/16, with seven further outings off the bench. Chipped in with six goals and five assists last term and, like Downing, can play on either flank. Karanka also handed Christhian Stuani 20 starts down the right, though, and bearing in mind the Uruguayan netted seven times, the uncertainty out wide should be enough of a deterrent.
