Scout Reports
18 July 2016 1597 comments
James H James H
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Last week, Tottenham confirmed the signing of AZ Alkmaar striker Vincent Janssen for a reported fee of £17m. The Dutch international is the club’s second summer signing following the arrival of midfielder Victor Wanyama from Southampton last month.

Having penned a four-year contract at White Hart Lane, the 22-year-old is optimistic of quickly securing a spot in Mauricio Pochettino’s first-team plans.

“Harry Kane? People can say what they want but I’m not afraid of anybody…He is a great striker but we will see how it goes. We can complement each other, I think I can learn a lot from him. I hope to play a lot, to score a lot of goals and to win prizes. I have a great chance to develop myself here. I can train with a young, talented group with very good staff and I’m ready to develop myself. I can grow with this group, it’s a very talented group and next season we’re in the Champions League as well, so that’s very nice.”

The History

Born in Heesch, Netherlands, Janssen started out his youth career at SV TOP and FC Oss before moving to NEC Nijmegen at the age of 12. The forward then signed up with Dutch giants Feyenoord in 2009 and spent four years at the club’s academy, playing a part in the U19s national title-winning side in 2013.

Janssen was subsequently released at the end of the 2012/13 campaign, though, and moved to Eerste Divisie side Almere City. In two seasons for the club, Janssen made 74 appearances in all competitions, scoring 32 goals and registering 12 assists, before being acquired by AZ last summer.

The five foot 11 frontman started slowly as he stepped up to the Eredivisie, failing to score in his first 367 minutes of league action, but enjoyed a sensational second half of the campaign, ending with 32 goals and seven assists from 49 appearances in all competitions.

Janssen represented his country at all youth levels from Under 15 upwards and most notably at Under 21 level, scoring eight goals in 10 matches. Handed a senior debut against France in March, he went on to bag a goal and assist in a 2-1 win against England four days later – so far, Janssen has three goals in five appearances in his fledgling international career.

The Prospects

While Tottenham enjoyed a hugely successful season last term, the one glaring weakness in their squad was a lack of cover for Harry Kane. Pochettino has wasted little time in addressing that issue, and speaking about his latest addition, believes Janssen has both the physical and mental characteristics to make an impact in the Premier League:

“Vincent is still very young and his potential is massive to develop. He has a profile that fits perfectly for us. He has quality in the box and he’s a striker that likes to fight and work for the team. That is perfect for us. We are very happy and excited that he has joined us. His human profile is perfect for the team, we always care about that. In general, he’s a player that fits the team.”

Pochettino is a firm believer in the 4-2-3-1 formation, so initially at least, it would be somewhat surprising if Janssen forces his way into the Argentine’s first-choice starting XI. The Dutch international scored all of his goals last season from inside the box, highlighting the fact he’s very much a traditional “number 9,” with predatory instincts that are particularly impressive for such a young player.

Last season, Janssen averaged a shot every 18.1 minutes, which was a better rate than any forward in the Premier League last term and superior to Kane’s 22.1 minutes. While predominantly left footed, Janssen is a composed finisher with either foot, and has clever movement in the box. Although he’s not blessed with searing pace, the former AZ front man has a good awareness, and is capable of holding off defenders with his strength.

Kane’s packed schedule over the last 18 months is also a factor. The only forward to start all 38 league matches last season, the England international – who has been named in the first XI in 56 successive top-flight matches – has also spent his last two summers representing England in the 2015 UEFA European Under 21 Championship and at Euro 2016.

Indeed, although Kane ultimately ended the previous Premier League campaign as top scorer with 25 goals, he struggled at the start of the season and scored just once in the opening nine Gameweeks, suggesting he suffered some fatigue from his international exertions. Initially then, we may see Pochettino using Janssen to help ease the burden, perhaps as a substitute late in matches to help the Dutchman settle into life in the Premier League.

There has often been a suggestion that Kane could drop back into a slightly deeper role given his strong ability to link the play, though, so should Janssen find his feet quickly, it’s something that can’t be fully ruled out. That would, of course, dent Dele Alli’s Fantasy prospects, with the former MK Dons player perhaps having to operate in a slightly deeper midfield spot if Kane moved into the support role.

It’s perhaps unlikely but such a scenario would certainly boost the appeal of Christian Eriksen, who finished fifth last season among midfielders who made 15 or more appearances for total shots (one every 30.7 minutes), while the Dane was fourth among midfielders for chances created (one every 26.9 minutes).

Given Janssen’s goal scoring record last term, albeit from his only season of top-flight football, it’s likely the Dutch international will be handed a price tag of around 9.0 to 9.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL). With plenty of uncertainty surrounding his initial pitch time, few Fantasy managers are expected to invest in the striker from the off. Nonetheless, his addition to the Spurs squad allows Pochettino to manage Kane’s minutes a little, particularly when the Champions League group stages start in September.

Handed a schedule that sees them face just two of last term’s top eight in the first nine Gameweeks, Tottenham’s attack looks likely to catch the eye of FPL managers from the offset. Kane remains the most appealing pick, though Eriksen and Alli – price dependent – will also be in the mix when we assemble our 15-man squads.

For now, Janssen is best monitoring, then, though Pochettino’s team sheets through the final pre-season friendlies should hopefully lend some insight into his thinking. If the new boy can quickly acclimatise and force his way into the first XI, he could be another one to consider as a route into an attack that produced more attempts on goal than any other over the 2015/16 campaign.

Further Reference

Vincent Janssen Wikipedia

Vincent Janssen Transfer Markt Page

Vincent Janssen You Tube

1,597 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Optimus.
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    @Mull it's usually around this time of the year where you bring out that "daniel" meme, you know the one the fpl start dates? 😉

    1. Mull
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I wish I still had the picture saved somewhere. I think it was Applebonkers' creation.

      1. Optimus.
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Was always good for a lol 😀

  2. GGMU11
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Going to London in May next year and looking to go to the Spurs v United match. Seems damn near impossible to get tickets for prem games, how do those of you who live out there acquire reasonably priced tickets? Seems like season ticket holders hold all of the power.

    1. Aladdin Sané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      You don't. And they do.

    2. Debauchy
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Not impossible . Register as a member with Spurs and you can negotiate tickets. Spurs United will be a toughie though. Perhaps best you aim at 1 of the "lesser games " when ticket holders will relinquish their tickets . I got tickets season before last season Arsenal West Ham.

      1. Debauchy
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        season before last

    3. Ziegler1988
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      That's the last match at White Hart Lane, be prepared to pay thousands of pounds for a ticket

    4. ekul the lokonga enthusiast
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Hard to see a game in London. I live in London and I have an arsenal membership and its hard enough to get a ticket to a decent game let alone a game vs a top 4 team. Join a ticket resell forum on Facebook and set the notifications on that specific group and check every single post until you see someone offering to sell tickets. do not trust routers

    5. GGMU11
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Thanks guys, completely forgot about the white hart lane situation too. Go to Europe once every 10 years, really don't want to miss an opportunity to see United play. I know away end will be about 0 chance from what I have seen but hopefully I can get something somewhere.

  3. Kuqi Monster
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    I bet AP lurks on the site this time of year to see the 4am posts just to have a chuckle to himself...

    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      He's too busy petitioning Jose to start Smalling and Jones at CB
      #PillarsofJustice

  4. Smurf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    VERY old articles.

    Any idea if very old articles written on here can be found still?

    I remember an article Mark wrote in what I think would be the preseason to the 2007/08 season.

    It basically was a guide on how to pick a team and how best to use the budget. So for example the three strickers would be one premium striker, one mid level striker and one cheap striker. I remember Anelka at Bolton being used as the mid-priced striker type as someone who would deliver consistent points, rather than be explosive etc.

    Would be great to read over it again and see how it compares now.

    Any ideas how to find it?

      1. Smurf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Yeah thanks GB. Perfect.

        Nice nostalgic read to keep me busy 🙂

          1. Smurf
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            Nice.

      2. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
        • 17 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        🙂 Happy days!

    1. Jamie_GAWA
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Tbh I don't think there is a secret method, just try to pick the players which get you the most points per million..

      Sorry I can't help :p

      1. Smurf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        It's not for help just for a nice nostalgic read.

      1. Evasivo
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        bRILLIANT!

  5. Cheeseoid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    In theory

    Everton
    Middlesborough
    Burnley
    Man Utd
    West Ham

    Makes a nice defensive rotation if it is within budget when the time comes

    1. I Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Saints over West Ham perhaps.

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Not bad but I think the rotation isn't quite as successful for as long with Saints but it is pretty good to be fair

        1. I Member
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          I agree but I just don't think West Ham are great defensively. They weren't last season and nothing has changed for them on that front.

          1. Cheeseoid
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            A fair point. Southampton were pretty solid once Forster came back last season

    2. Bøwstring The Carp
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Shaw/ Baines/ Friend/ Mee/ (Antonio/ Tomkins)

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Sounds good doesn't it?

      2. TorresMagic™
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 17 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Tomkins?

        1. Cheeseoid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Cresswell would obviously be the premium pick

          1. Bøwstring The Carp
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            Yeah the ideal pick but likely to be expensive

            That extra cash might be the difference between affording a good midfield/ striker or settling for a weaker one

          2. TorresMagic™
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 17 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            Tomkins is at Palace.

            1. Cheeseoid
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 12 months ago

              I didn't even notice that. I was to busy looking at teams!

              1. TorresMagic™
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 17 Years
                9 years, 12 months ago

                GW3 and GW5 have at least 2 defenders playing away.

                1. Cheeseoid
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 13 Years
                  9 years, 12 months ago

                  But away teams have favorable fixtures imo so that isn't a problem

                  1. TorresMagic™
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 17 Years
                    9 years, 12 months ago

                    Fair enough. Defence is always an area I can improve on.

                    1. Cheeseoid
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 13 Years
                      9 years, 12 months ago

                      It is all academic anyway until we get some prices isn't it? Ideally I would have a 12 week rotation which works. This hits's the skids before then

                      1. Bøwstring The Carp
                        • 14 Years
                        9 years, 12 months ago

                        Reid I meant 🙄 always get them mixed up for some reason 🙁

    3. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      w ham and saints rotate home and away

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        If I am payoing money for a West Ham or Saints defender I would expect to play them most weeks

    4. MitroGoal
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I ll try with Leicester, Arsenal, Southampton, Middlesborough and Burnley

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        I think it will be a case of making the budge tnd teh rotation work together to be fair. Always have to make concessions even with quite cheap plans

    5. ★Kuntheman★
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Not willing to trust Everton defense just yet

    6. asquishypotato
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Quite like this too

    7. BENOIT
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I think a Chelsea defender could be essential this season

  6. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    could this be the perfect season for Aguero and Zlatan up top in order to benefit from 1 of these 2 cpts every week as they rotate home and away every week?? 🙂

    1. Slam
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Rotating caltains now?
      Uh oh...

      1. Slam
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Captains*

    2. I Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Doesn't interest me in the slightest. I'll base my captaincies on who I think will score the most points that week. I don't see that being Ibrahimovic in any of their first three home games (SOT, MCI, LEI).

    3. TorresMagic™
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Who do you captain in the Derby?

    4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      This is my plan 🙂

  7. TheBusDriver
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Still hasn't launched? WTF OMG

  8. TheBusDriver
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Some hax to pass the time?

    1. TheBusDriver
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      haxball

      1. Gareth nose
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Yeah

  9. I Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    At the start of the season how many GWs do you tend to take into account when picking your team (assuming that you aren't planning an early WC)?

    1. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      10 for defenders it seems.

      Other spots are more fluid I suspect

  10. Piggs Boson
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    If you had to pick one piece of FPL advice to building a GW1 team, what would it be?

    .
    Mine is probably: 'Make sure you can bring in the GW1 bandwagon with 1FT'

    As the bandwagon is usually a mid/fwd it follows to keep the funds in attack, and cover the popular price brackets. I.e. if there are many quality 8.0m options, have at least one of them (It will allow you an easy swap to the performing one). Flexibility saves you hits!

    1. TheBusDriver
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      My advice is to not listen to any advice on here.

      1. Slam
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        So you're just here for the...

      2. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        So you're the best player on the site? 😛

        Many people have valuable insight. You can always ignore the advice that doesn't sit right with you!

        1. TheBusDriver
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Yea, you're right.

    2. Slam
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Thats the thing with going with Kun/Ibra/Cheapie

      What if Sturrudge scores a brace and has burnley next? Do you get rid if Kun or Zlatan?

      1. TheBusDriver
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Sturridge GW1 brace

        http://imgur.com/jKSeC2z

        1. Pariße
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          😆

    3. Mull
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Plan long term with defence and short/medium term with attackers. This means you don't waste transfers on changing defenders because they have bad fixtures.

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        And is easiest to achieve for that matter as you will often have 2 defs on the bench

      2. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Yeah, our squads will be unrecognisable 6 GWs in 😀

    4. I Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I would really hope to be able to save my FT after GW1.

    5. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      There is only one and I think it is important. Do not get 3 players from 1 side. If another player becomes essential from that team it makes you need 2 transfers in order to get the person you want rather than 1

    6. Slam
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I would advise most to know when you will WC and use chips.

    7. Smurf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Mine is to have a different range of players prices in each position ie. Premium price, mid priced and low prices defenders, midfielders and strikers.

      This then sets you up well for you advice of being able to get any bandwagon in.

    8. Elniñorules
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      "What would Mr Maverick do?"

      1. Slam
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        That man has seen one to many Zlatan memes

    9. Jordan.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      have best of Steps cd on in the background,makes you cool and relaxed for important decisions...

    10. Parm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Don't get Taarabt.

      1. Pariße
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Oh my...just checked he plays for Benfica B now 😐

    11. Ludo
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Start with nailed on players. It sounds obvious now, but it won't when we look back on our GW1 teams at the end of September.

      1. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Agree! There's always that 4.0m defender that tempts us... 😆

    12. ekul the lokonga enthusiast
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Don't watch match of the day. Helps if U watch full games to know who's in form.

    13. Evasivo
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      never scrimp on Goalkeeper selection, you DO NOT want to have to waste a transfer on one. I prefer the 2 keepers from same tea approach, not favoured by everyone mind

    14. Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Stick to 1 attacker and 1 defender per team at max.

    15. ★Kuntheman★
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Always look at ownership percentage. Gives you a better idea of which players you should keep as a safety, and which players could be your own little differential.

      Along with that, watch the games. I picked up Kane in his first season before he started running riot because I saw him play well against Chelsea and hit the post a few times. Same with Alli. Watch games and see who's performing. Usually, people look into stats more than performance. Both are important but I lean towards watching the games to get a better idea of who is getting in the better positions.

    16. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Don't captain Boselli.

    17. The Hindu Monkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Don't risk leaving big points on the bench. The second half of the season is all about the squad. The first half is about 11, at most 12 players going all out.

    18. Respect My Authoritah
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Don't look too far into the future in terms of rotations etc

  11. TheBusDriver
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Will the game launch tomorrow?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      It could at 4am

      1. bitm2007
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        The 4am myth could come true.

        1. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 15 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          TM could get id #1 if it does.

      2. Camp No No
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        But better get up no later than 2 AM for the case they open it earlier.

  12. Predicting Goals
    Ludo
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Hey guys! I've been looking over stats in the members area since the Euros finished, and came across Rakkhi's article on Shots on Target being the 'One Stat To Rule Them All'. For those that don't remember it, he showed that SoT was the stat which best correlated with Goals, with Big Chances being next best. Well, I've done some number crunching of my own, and I can tell you that Shots on Target + Big Chances is better than either. I played with different weightings, but interestingly, simply adding the two stats gave the most accurate results.

    What's more, but Shots on Target + Big Chances is, on average, almost exactly four times a Player or Team's Goals Scored. Basically, (SoT+BC)/4 is a great little formula for Predicted Goals, with quality players and teams tending to slightly exceed it. It makes sense - the weakness of Shots on Target is that. like Shots and Shots in the Box, it doesn't reflect the quality of a players' chances, so there will be anomalies, like Coutinho firing daisy-cutters from distance to rack up the Shots on Target, without really threatening the opposition's goal. Big Chances is all about the quality of opportunities, but it's weakness is that only around 50% of all goals come from Big Chances (as a side note, this is still seriously impressive, given that only around 20% of all chances are 'big'). SoT helps to rectify that, because almost all goals come from hitting the target!

    With that in mind, I've created a spreadsheet, looking at the Goals and Predicted Goals of the players who scored 3 or more goals in each of the last three seasons, and then the overall stats of the players who scored 10 or more goals in that period. I've also applied these players' Minutes Played, to give a picture of how well they performed when given the opportunity, and also factored in the different points earned by Forwards, Midfielders and Defenders in FPL for scoring a goal.

    I think that it throws up some really interesting results. Kane in 13/14, and Vardy and Mahrez and 14/15 all had excellent underlying stats, but failed to convert their Predicted Goals into actual Goals, before exploding as great-value options the next season. The table would also have shown the appeal of a nailed on Sigurdsson before his move to Swansea, and the likes of Lukaku, Coutinho and Tadic's improved goal tallies this season also look like a reversion to the mean, after they failed to live up to their promising stats in 2014-15.

    Of course, not all players who fail to convert good stats into Goals will score well in the future, and players like Walcott, Sterling, Coutinho and Cazorla's wasteful finishing has seen them consistently under-deliver. On the other hand, the likes of Aguero, Costa, Sturridge, Rooney and Yaya Toure have consistently out-performed the expectations of their stats, by being particularly clinical in front of goal.

    Here's the spreadsheet - feel free to have a play and draw your own conclusions. I recommend sorting by the columns, which will save you a lot of time!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l30zAFBoJ7k8_rdSn_QjgijRA8DS9BIkZceLVI2Rjbs/edit?usp=sharing

    1. TheBusDriver
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      That's a very very long post.

      1. Slam
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        This is the valuable and informative responses i come on FFS to see. 🙂

        Thanks Driver 😀

        1. The_Socca_Philosopha
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          I know it's been over three weeks, but this comment still cracks me up 😆

    2. Jamie_GAWA
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Thanks for this

    3. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Walcott wagon! 😉

      Isn't Giroud getting a Euro rest?

      1. MitroGoal
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Yes Giroud and Cos are on hollidays

      2. Ludo
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Uh-oh...

    4. Camp No No
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      But this is one of those predicting in hindsight spreadsheets.

      To predict the future events from the past events, you should look at, for example, the SoT + big chances on rolling 4GWs and goals on the next 4GW.

      Somebody did that here, and the results were surprising to say the least.

      1. Ludo
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Sure, I agree completely. But, II'm not using this like a 'last four gameweeks' members table, I'm looking at how sustainable a players' performance was over the course of the season. Confidence and luck both play a big factor in short-term form, and really, that can last a surprisingly long time. Yaya Toure in 2013/14, for example, didn't revert to the mean at all that season - the stars continued to align. Since then, however, he's performed at a more 'predictable' level.

        1. Camp No No
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          The problem is that things like big chances are not necessarily very repeatable. And don't depend on the individual players only. Which ever season you look at, the players who have scored the most goals have also had the most SoT and big chances, for sure. But that serves little to predict the next seasons goals unless you can predict the number of SoT and big chances for the players the next season. I can easily predict that the players with most SoT + big chances will lead the scoring charts in every league. Do I know for sure which ones those are? For example, in _aftermath_ it was predictable for Vardy to outscore Kun. But that's a great hindsight.

          There are some fairly predictable things though. Arsenal seems to have developed a great tactic to produce a lot of really good chances. So we can probably trust them to get many of those again, and maybe score much more goals (rate was awful). Kun will always both get a lot of top chances per 90 and finish them at a great rate, in long time. Kane seems to be a relatively sure shot too. But then there will also be a lot of oscillation and simple change. Predictions for ManU, Chelsea, Southampton, West Ham, Everton, Leicester? Repeat last season? Back to the season before? Something completely different? These are not altogether unpredictable things (managers are an interesting factor to consider), but they're surely are not predictable simply on the basis of last season.

          Btw, it's another thing altogether, but Yaya's form really wasn't _that_ crazy. When you look at it, it was mostly just a crazy free kick conversion, a lot of penalties (with 100% conversion) and then the rest of it was on a good, even great, but not incredible level.

          1. Camp No No
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            Oops, that came out long.

          2. Ludo
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            Absolutely, but I'm not suggesting that these numbers be used as the gospel, they're just a way of giving a fuller picture than simply looking at how many goals someone scored last season, which doesn't tell the full story in itself.

            Take changes to teams, player positions and roles into account, put more trust in the players with a longer history of high performance, and try to pick the best players. I can't argue with any of that! It's always going to be a lottery, and sticking rigidly to one statistical model is only going to make things harder.

            On Yaya, those free kicks are exactly what threw the stats so fat off - nobody has scored that many from so few shots before or since. Penalties are included as Big Chances, but have a higher conversion rate than other 'big chances', so that can throw things off as well. It was a perfect storm, but the canny fantasy manager could have got him in anyway.

            1. Camp No No
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 12 months ago

              Guess we have to agree to agree. 😉

    5. Bolivian Seaman
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Nice thankyou. sanchez is really high on that list surprisingly, having him over kdb could be a good move

    6. Ludo
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I've forgotten to mention that I've only included stats for players that are currently at a Premier League club - so no van Persie or Suarez, but also no Wijnaldum as it stands. Should someone with a Premier League record from the last three seasons make a move, I'll add them to the list.

      Here are some of my own key take-aways from the 15-16 stats:

      - Christian Eriksen was the biggest under-performer. He doesn't have a history of failing to convert chances into goals, and can count himself unlucky not to have reached double figures last season.
      - Stoke created a lot of chances for their centre forwards - Joselu and Diouf both had great Predicted Goals stats, but failed to convert those chances. If anyone can nail down that spot, they could be a great option.
      - Callum Wilson is on a lot of pre-season radars, but the stats suggest he was lucky to score as many as he did at the beginning of last season.
      - Midfielders that play like forwards are recognised fantasy gold, and Walcott, Mane and Mirallas all look like gold dust if they can nail down a starting position at any point.
      - Townsend looks like a good option now he'll get regular gametime at Palace, and the likes of Benteke, Bony and Austin all have the pedigree to do well if they also find themselves in improved situations.

      1. Bolivian Seaman
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        I had wilson when he scored his hattrick, it was lucky. I think he had 4 shots. Also, the midfielders you point out have a lot of upside, just have to pick the right one

        1. Cheeseoid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Was the opposition not down to 10 men? that has to help

      2. Lateriser 12
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        This is beautiful thanks.

    7. le flem
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      wow. excellent. many thanks for this.

    8. Couti & the Below5th
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Nice work Ludo! Cheers

    9. TJ_777
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Great Work!
      I think the season by season difference means nothing, but comparing last seasons difference to the overall difference of last three seasons shows some interesting stats
      Cheers

    10. Vlekz
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Thank u

    11. 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Great stuff Ludo, thanks.

    12. Numb
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I think it's more the other way around - I.e. Players that have scored goals over a certain period *must* have had attempts on targets and probably had big chances. And given all three stats are fairly low figures generally there's bound to be a close correlation when looking backwards.

    13. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
      • 17 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Great stuff

    14. Demí
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Fantastic stuff. Best spreadsheet/piece of work i've seen this pre-season. Thanks as ever Ludo

    15. Van Klinkert Delarosa
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Cheers for this spreadsheet Ludo!

      How do we navigate this spreadsheet? Is sorting the 'difference' column by the highest red color figured is the way to go?

      1. Ludo
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        It depends on what you're looking for... I've ordered it by Predicted Goals Per 90 Minutes automatically, but there's no reason you can't also use it to look at Goals Per 90 Minutes, or even just Goals, Shots on Target or Big Chances. The Difference column is useful to highlight the biggest over- and under-performers, but that doesn't tell you anything about their goal threat - you'll need to look at the other columns for that.

    16. Ludo
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Out of respect for Members, I’ve now hidden Big Chances, Shots on Target and Time Played on the spreadsheet. However, for those who want to delve further into the stats, I’ve created this table in the Members Area: http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/public-stats-tables/view/15080/

    17. Ludo
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Spreadsheet updated following 16/17 position changes - nice boosts for Martial and Bojan, but not such good news for Dier.

  13. MitroGoal
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Who will be your fifth cheep mid?

    1. Slam
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      How do we know who's cheap yet?

      1. MitroGoal
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Come on we know it wont be KDB fo sho

      2. Jøssy ⭐
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        How do we know how to spell cheap?

    2. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Micky

      1. MitroGoal
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Who is Mickey

        1. Cheeseoid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          The Man U mid I cannot spell

          1. Camp No No
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            He-man? Your midfield looks extremely expensive then.

            1. Cheeseoid
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 12 months ago

              We don't know prices yet

    3. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      That spot's usually price dependant. The most attacking 4.5m nailed on mid.

    4. Worzel Gummidge
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Leko.

    5. Ziegler1988
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Maybe Darren Fletcher again

      1. Optimus.
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Darren Fletcher will be priced out the game this season imo

        1. Ziegler1988
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Indeed, 5.0m would be too much for my taste

        2. Ziegler1988
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          And he's ineligible GW17 against his parent club

          1. Optimus.
            • 15 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            😀

    6. ekul the lokonga enthusiast
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Matt Phillips, WBA.

      Don't sleep on him ppl

  14. Slam
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Anybody have a link to Berbs' spreadsheet?

    1. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      It is in the 66 with my other links to useful stuff

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        In the tab New Season Links

        1. Slam
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Cheers will have a look tonight

            1. Cheeseoid
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 12 months ago

              Thanks. That is the downside of just trusting links I have picked up I guess!

  15. Jay_
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Evening lads, couldn't sign in to the register details on the Premier League page with my original email or password, tried on iPad and phone where login details were already saved and even tried on a fresh laptop. The email was a old MSN Hotmail account that I haven't used in years and when I tried to recover account it said the account does not exist. Had to make a new Premier League account but not too fussed because I had 2x 1 million ranks in my first two seasons and around 20k in my last 2 seasons since. Anyway, now I've made the new account, how do I go about syncing it to FFS? For HoF and competitions etc.

    1. The Sarjeant
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Hmmm, the same happened to me. Password and e-mail was saved on my phone and it kept saying incorrect password or e-mail. Although my e-mail works fine.

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      HoF just needs entry in a FFS league

      1. BigManBakar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Members league or the main one?

          1. BigManBakar
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            Basically if I join one it will keep track of my rank for the annual HOF update. Cheers TM.

            1. TorresMagic™
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 17 Years
              9 years, 12 months ago

              HoF gets updated quite a few times during the season.

              1. BigManBakar
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                9 years, 12 months ago

                Wasn't aware of that. Thanks.

    3. The Sarjeant
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      And you'll have to join the FFS leagues to link up with the HoF.

    4. Ziegler1988
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      You just put your team in the FFS main league

    5. Jay_
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Cheers lads, what about my email on here? Do I have to change it to the same as the new FPL one?

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 17 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        No, they aren't linked.

        1. Jay_
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Ok, thanks mate

  16. S.Kuqi
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Any idea how to get decent start at fpl? I'm usually ranked around +1M after gw3

    1. S.Kuqi
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      which leads to panic and using my wildcard too early

    2. A.T
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Pick a team for the first 3
      gw's

    3. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Need a bit of luck for a good start. Expect your starting squad to be crap, just make it flexible 😀

      1. S.Kuqi
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        I usually leave 0.5 itb to catch badwagons and price rises but having good start isn't about luck. I have played this game for 8 yrs and have never had even decent start.

        1. Camp No No
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Try changing that then.

    4. Camp No No
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Pick the best players from the beginning. That way you can just relax and watch points coming and others jumping to wagons you're already driving.

      1. S.Kuqi
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Wish I knew who the best players are from the start 😀

    5. TheBusDriver
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Get the players who will score the highest points.

      1. S.Kuqi
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Epic Fail...is that you?

        1. Camp No No
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          No, but you're right that he's an epic fail. 😉

  17. Worzel Gummidge
    9 years, 12 months ago

    If you could pick only one. Ibra or Micky? My vote is for Micky as will be cheaper IMO.

    1. Camp No No
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Probably way cheaper. but Zlatan's price is maybe the most unpredictable of them all.

    2. oghash
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Rooney

    3. MitroGoal
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Depends who will be on pens, free kicks and corners

    4. Eze Really?
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      It is a guess but Ibra will be overpriced with all the hype.
      A 35 year old in a physical league with a hard game 2 times a week is a big doubt IMO.
      I know his pedigree but still an unknown FPL quantity.
      Miki maybe a better call especially on price.

  18. Gazpilicueta
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    This season......Eden Hazard......worth a shot?
    will his price make him un-choosable?
    will his quality come back and make any price worth it?

    1. Worzel Gummidge
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I am seriously considering that new guy. If they play 2 up top I think that will hinder Hazard. Caveat: based on nothing.

  19. Rodgers's CHARACTER
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    When re-register was opened this season?

    1. Camp No No
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Sometime early or mid last week I think.

  20. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Just saw the Night of. Brilliant show. HBO kills it.

    1. TheBusDriver
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      just the 1st episode?

      1. Lateriser 12
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        First two are out.

    2. MrMaverick
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I don't care

    3. My name is an echo
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      where are you watching this? I looked for it yesterday and couldnt find it online

      1. Lateriser 12
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        google eztv

  21. Transfer Window
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    When will the fantasy premier league website be up, any ideas fellas ?

    1. TheBusDriver
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      this week

    2. MitroGoal
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      This week

    3. My Name Is Prince
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Tomorrowish...

  22. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Evening gents. 🙂

    1. TheBusDriver
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Eveninining Freak.

      1. TheBusDriver
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Evening

    2. S.Kuqi
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Hello former 4th 🙂

    3. Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Ello Freak. Got space on your whatsapp group?

      1. BigManBakar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        All spots filled up mate. 🙁

        1. TheBusDriver
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Open up more spots then....

        2. Lateriser 12
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Let me know if you guys empty a spot.

          1. BigManBakar
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            Sure thing mate... 🙂

    4. The Nuttmxn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Evening TFF

  23. MitroGoal
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    I think Tadic could be this season Mahrez

    1. S.Kuqi
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      too expensive and well known to be this seasons Mahrez

      1. My Name Is Prince
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        True, he's nowhere near as unlikely as Mahrez was last season to be the hero of the year....

      2. MitroGoal
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        I ment 15+ goals and 15+ asists , not the price

    2. My Name Is Prince
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      As a Saints fan I'm praying that you're right!! 😀

      1. MitroGoal
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        If he would play no 10 behind striker he would be great

        1. My Name Is Prince
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          True... At least there's a genuine chance Puel will play him as no 10 too... Well, we will see during the pre-season... There's potential there... I just want the game to open so we can see how everyone's priced!!!

    3. Valencia's Left Foot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Anyone worried Saints new manager won't have the team firing like they were late last year? Reluctant to touch Saints players with their new manager being an unknown quantity, plus Wanyama and Mane gone doesn't boost Saints appeal. Thoughts?

      1. I Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Lovely home fixtures to start. Will be considering Tadic and Long for GW1. Possibly a defender.

        1. BigManBakar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Dreadful away fixtures though. Double edged sword.

        2. My Name Is Prince
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          A defender for a rotation could be good, given the horrible away fixtures, but they will all be too expensive I reckon... Will probably be all 5.5m.... Can't see any of Bertrand - VVD - Fonte - Cedric being at 5.0m....

          1. MitroGoal
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            Maby Cedric will be 5.0

            1. My Name Is Prince
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 12 months ago

              Well yeah, he might be, I hope the Euro win (although he didn't play particularly well in it tbh) doesn't affect things....

      2. MitroGoal
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Claude is fantastic manager and with absence of Mane I think Tadic will shine.

    4. Eze Really?
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Mane going could up his points potential.

  24. England's Number 1
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Doing a draft league on draftfantasyfootball.co.uk at 9 if anyone wants to join in.
    https://draftfantasyfootball.co.uk/league/joining/ZuL7aR9MyMzH7uq7A

  25. pundit of punts
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    If their prices are the same, who would you pick in your GW 1 squad?

    Kane or Ibra?

    1. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Ibra definitely.

    2. Worzel Gummidge
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Ibra but will be getting neither. Micky or/and Eriksen for me.

    3. My Name Is Prince
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Ibra

    4. MrMaverick
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Kane

    5. Ziegler1988
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Zlatan

  26. Jazz!
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Interested to see what Batshuayi's price will be.

    1. My Name Is Prince
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Indeed, I reckon 6-8m.... Would love it to be closer to 6m though....

      1. BigManBakar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        No chance he's less than 8m I'm afraid...

    2. Worzel Gummidge
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I will be getting him instead of Hazard as Chelse 'coverage'. I think if he plays 2 up top Hazards appeal will drop.

    3. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Read that Costa may return to Atletico - not sure how true.

  27. Worzel Gummidge
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Tadic/Micky/Kdb/Eriksen/Leko
    Aguero/New Chelsea Striker/Sturridge

    I am thinking this to start. I feel it in my balls.

    1. I Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Way too expensive.

      1. Worzel Gummidge
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Happy to drop Sturr tbh. Just chucked him in last minute. That slot is up for grabs.

        1. Worzel Gummidge
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Also, forgot Sanchez. Back to drawing board.

          1. Davido989
            • 15 Years
            9 years, 12 months ago

            May miss the start.

            1. Worzel Gummidge
              9 years, 12 months ago

              Leave money in the bank for him then.

  28. :
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Hmmm, a little touchy about Seth Sethers for some reason. I'm not ITK you know, just guessing. 😀

  29. MrMaverick
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 12 months ago

    Scenes when FPL launches on Sunday

    1. :
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      Seth would be bemused.

    2. joinho
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 12 months ago

      I can't wait till sunday, hope it's tomorrow

      1. Numb
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 12 months ago

        Early next week I reckon

        1. Jøssy ⭐
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 12 months ago

          Just sit tight