Great Expectations
3 August 2016 1471 comments
J0E J0E
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As evidenced by the success of Grant Holt, Rickie Lambert, Charlie Austin, Jamie Vardy and Odion Ighalo over the past few years, the promoted clubs can often provide us with budget forwards that far outdo their favourable price tags.

After bagging 23 goals and eight assists in Burnley’s Championship winning season, Andre Gray has the potential to be the next one off the conveyor belt.

Signed by Sean Dyche last summer for a club-record fee of around £9 million, Gray has followed a similar path to the likes of Austin and Vardy by working his way through the lower leagues to make it to the top-flight.

Having played a part in 43% of the Clarets’ goals on their way to the Championship title, he looks worthy of serious consideration for our three-man frontlines.

  • Gray has wasted no time in announcing himself to Fantasy managers over the summer period by scoring eight times, including a weekend hat-trick at Rangers. The Premier League’s form forward over pre-season, he’s been both consistent and explosive and found the net in all five of his appearances. Despite a kind 6.5 price tag in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), he’s shaping up to be a decent differential and is owned by just 10% so far.
  • Last season, Gray averaged a shot every 31.3 minutes, which was slightly better than Southampton’s Shane Long (34.9), who is currently the highest owned forward (15.2%) priced 6.5 and under in FPL. Elsewhere in this bracket, Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson was less impressive in this regard, averaging a shot every 48.2 minutes last term, with West Ham’s Andy Carroll (27.6), Southampton’s Charlie Austin (29.1) and Middlesbrough’s Alvaro Negredo (29.4) the quickest.
  • Gray also impresses in terms of goal conversion. He netted an eye-catching 21.1%of his opportunities in the previous season – superior to the similarly priced Carroll (16.1%), Long (15.6%) and Austin (12.5%), although Wilson did lead the way, with an impressive goal conversion rate of 29.4% last term, albeit from just 13 appearances. His prospects would be boosted if he’s afforded spot-kicks ahead of team-mate Sam Vokes – Gray took five last term, scoring four, though Vokes scored three when his strike partner was on the pitch. Certainly, this would justify the extra outlay comapred to Vokes’ cost of 6.0.
  • Compared to forwards at the other promoted clubs, Gray’s appeal is heightened by a security of starts – Dyche tends to favour consistency of selection and is unlikely to chop and change unnecessarily. The same can’t be said for either Middlesbrough or Hull right now. Aitor Karanka operates with a 4-2-3-1 formation, so while Negredo looks to be the first-choice striker, Jordan Rhodes seems likely to steal minutes off the Spaniard given the ‘Boro manager’s penchant for rotation. With last term’s top scorer Abel Hernandez linked with a move away, few FPL bosses will be prepared to invest in Hull’s attack right now until some sense of stability is restored.
  • Gray’s prospects are boosted by the fact that Burnley are the only team facing four home matches in the first six Gameweeks (SWA, LIV, che, HUL, lei, WAT), due to their Gameweek 2 fixture against Liverpool being reversed as the Reds put the finishing touches to their new Main Stand. The former Brentford forward looks to have the ideal platform to hit the ground running, then, with the fixtures against Swansea, Hull and Watford in particular looking very favourable.

J0E Podcaster and writer. Tweets stats and stuff via @FFScout_Joe Follow them on Twitter

  1. How I met your Mata
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Martial yay or nay?

    1. le flem
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      yay

    2. StalkingDwarf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Yay. Just keep an eye on Community Shield

      1. How I met your Mata
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Community shield can be misleading tho I remember one year cleverly and Anderson looked set to be united midfield partnership lol

  2. le flem
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    anyone considering rooney? i think if united does well he will. The question is does he start every game?

    1. How I met your Mata
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I think I would wait a few games to see how United set up

    2. JackBetherz
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Rooney aint nailed anymore bud. Mourinho sees Rooney as a striker apparently which means he is competing against Rashford, Ibra and Martial so yeah wait and see after a few gameweeks

      1. le flem
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        cheers

      2. marko_v_111
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        I don't think thats right Jack. Mourinho sees him as a forward and i think he will be one of the first on the teamsheet.

        We all know mourinho likes to be 4-2-3-1 and we all know Ibra has that striker spot with Rashford as back up. then regarding the 3 behind the striker this is most likely to be Martial\Rooney\Mkhit with again Rashford as backup there.

        so most of the time those 4 will play with rashford offering pace in the 2nd half of games. IF rashford comes into form then could outst one of those 4 depending on form.

        Also the fact rooney works hard for the team will see him as the first name on the sheet.

        And you put the final nail in it mourinho has confirmed he will be club captain so don't see him missing out to much

    3. JOSESBARMYARMY
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Yes. Rooney nailed in the hole. Mourinho loves him tried to buy him for years, Ibra has come out singing his praises too and he is club captain as well as the second highest goalscorer in PL history.

      As much as I would love Rashford and Tony either side of Mhki with Ibra up top it won't happen.

      Rooney will play behind Ibra and will have to have a terrible run of form to get dropped.

      All or nothing season for Rooney now and I am riding the wave.

  3. JackBetherz
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Redmond + Wilson or Gradel + Long
    Opinions please and reasons for them if possible

    1. Fragzurp
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      redmond + Gray

    2. Deece
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Gradel + Long.

      Not sure Redmond nailed with new manager talking him up as a striker (off bench for long or Austin?)

      Gradel decent points per minute last season. Goal scoring mid.

  4. daveoafc77
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Struggling to decide between Hazard, Sanchez, and KDB so currently have all 3 plus Aguero. Too much? Who should I lose to spread the cash around to the rest of my team?

    1. Fragzurp
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      KDB if you have kun already

    2. Deece
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I have Sanchez / Haz / Kun / Zlatan for coverage but tempted to drop Zlatan for KDB.

      Will KDB start GW1 ?

      1. daveoafc77
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        That's the worry with him being rested from a lot of preseason

      2. Deece
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        How does your whole team look out of interest with those 4 in ?

        1. daveoafc77
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          2 x 6.5 strikers
          Trying to find budget midfielders who would play
          And happy with my defence, Chelsea plus 4.5s

    3. Basil1977
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      KDB at risk of rotation with silva, Sterling, Sane, Nolito, Navas etc, plus champsions league qualifier. Sanchez late back into Training due to copa america plus slight injury niggle, Arsenal have a few tricky opening games aswell. I would save a few quid and go with Hazard.

      1. daveoafc77
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Will prob lose KDB. Sanchez will be involved in Arsenals last couple of preseason seasons games and I think he will sting a lot of people with his very low % of ownership

  5. Deece
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    How's this sankunbrazard team:

    Foster Jaku
    Shaw Friend Evans Mee Smith
    Sanchez Haz Delo Gradel Capoue
    Aguero Zlatan Gray

    1. le flem
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      not sure sanchez will play first game, plus arsenal's fixtures are tough. maybe dowgrade and upgrade a defender slightly

    2. daveoafc77
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      It's ok, I'm not as sold as everyone seems to me on Ibra though

      1. Deece
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah I'm just terrified of his massive ownership. KDB or Kane could definitely be a better option. Need to monitor friendlies / charity shield

        1. daveoafc77
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          I've never been one to play the game based on ownership. Id rather trust my own instincts and live and die by them.

          1. Graceless Goof
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            I respect this

  6. Martial Eriksen
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Double or triple attack from one team only if you expect at least 3 goals from them or good way to cover all the potential point scorers in that team?

    Or is it better to cover from many teams hoping that those you pick are the ones getting you the points?

  7. Kane Train
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    No love for Callum Wilson??

    1. Defcons are for Kinnear
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      He's so last year

    2. ZLATAN'S PONYTAIL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Been lots of love for Wilson. Toss up between him and Gray

  8. Swedish Rs Mafia
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Hi all. For GW1, saftey over punts? By safety I mean chosing 100% super nailed players ahead of 90% ones... The other topic being avoiding no-show 4.0 ones to maximizing the first 11? How safe are you planning to go?

  9. Defcons are for Kinnear
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Just looking at first 3 fixtures and it's tough to call between United and Chelsea

  10. matty_b_OAFC
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Strong enough front 7?

    Hazard, Payet, Eriksen, Tadic
    Aguero, Gray, Wilson

    1. Fragzurp
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      front is abit light

    2. oghash
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I'd feel more confident with a season of stats from Wilson, not just a few months.

    3. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I think your side would look better if we could see the whole side. You must have spent some money there

  11. mranonymous
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Is Redmond nailed? Thx.

    1. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      No.

    2. Swans4life
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      There news that the new coach thinks as him as a striker so he could be s sub

  12. Blame It On Rio-ddermorten
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Hi guys! Thanks again for helping me to a top 10k finish last year, hope to take it even further this time around. Is this the squad to kick the season off?

    Heaton/Foster
    Koscielny Shaw Friend Koné Evans
    Hazard Ayew Tadic Zaha Capoue
    Aguero Ibrahimovic Gray

    Any help appreciated. 0.0 itb.

    1. qreen qoblin
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      downgrade heaton or foster and upgrade one defender

      1. Blame It On Rio-ddermorten
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks!

    2. Basil1977
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      i would drop Kos for someone cheaper,possibly a palace defender rotates well with Kone for the first 6 fixtures. and upgrade Zaha, other then that i like it.

      1. Blame It On Rio-ddermorten
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers!

  13. Swans4life
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Rate my team
    Courtois/ jaku
    Baines shaw pieters byram McAuley
    Redmond hazard mahrez leko deulofeu
    Kun negredo Sturridge

    1. oli7
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Too many people who aren't nailed: Byram, Leko, Sturridge

  14. tissae
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    A) Mahrez + Tadic/ Siggy
    OR
    B) Alli + Firmino?

    1. Blame It On Rio-ddermorten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Tough call. Probably B for me.

    2. Swans4life
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. FULLSERVICECOVER
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      fixtures,deffo A

    4. StalkingDwarf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      A to start with. I prefer B in the long run, but A has the better fixtures.

    5. LanzaLions
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      A

  15. Leaf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    I see a few people are saying gw5 is the best place for early wildcarders instead it Gw3
    What's the reasoning ?

  16. FULLSERVICECOVER
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    how do you find your team ID on fantasy? Thanks in advance

    1. Leaf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Game week history page then you will see it in the url at the end

    2. HVT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Click team history and copy url

    3. FULLSERVICECOVER
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      thanks guys

  17. Saint & Reevesy
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    2nd Draft:

    Your thoughts.....

    Forster / Jaku

    Valencia / Stones / pieters / friend / Soaure

    Ozil / Eriksen / Hazard / Ayew / ibe

    Kun / Gray / Austin

    1. qreen qoblin
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Austin not nailed.

    2. LanzaLions
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Bit light up front

  18. MFPL
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    RMT?

    Foster (Heaton)
    Shaw / Friend / Evans (Coleman / Fernandez)
    Hazard / Eriksen / Tadic / Deulofeu (Capoue)
    Aguero / Sturridge / Gray

    1. Saint & Reevesy
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I like, sturidge will either reward or burn you.....

    2. oli7
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I like apart from Studge, too expensive for someone who might not start

  19. Blurryface
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    #Repost

    Suggestions plz

    Foster Jaku
    Shaw Terry Taylor Pieters Friend
    Haz Mahrez Deulafoue Ramirez Fletcher
    Kun Ibra Gray

    1. qreen qoblin
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      don't like the mid - only 3 good

  20. Leaf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Wow Arsenal are signing Lacazette , Mahrez , Griesmann & Icardi

    It's on the web so is definitely true

  21. mranonymous
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    I find it interesting that people automatically assume that Zouma will take Terry's place...

    1. StalkingDwarf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Zouma was by far our best centre back last season. When he's back, I'm fairly certain that he'll slot back into the first XI. In the friendlies, having Cahill and Terry together is not a good partnership anymore. Cahill can't string passes together and if we can't sign Koulibaly, I see Zouma taking Cahill's spot.

      1. mranonymous
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        My thoughts exactly... Cahill to lose his spot & not Terry

  22. Kane Train
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Negredo or Wilson?

    1. LanzaLions
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      or Gray?

  23. Magic Man
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    I hope Kun gets injured lol, makes everyones teams a lot different and the captain choices differenciate a lot more

    1. Ziegler1988
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Ban

      1. Magic Man
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        😀

    2. TheShinKicker
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I wouldn't want anyone to get injured but after hours of tinkering my dark side definitely whispers this to me

  24. RSS447
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    RMT please !
    cech boruc
    shaw walker friend evans pieters
    eriksen mahrez ayew tadic shaqiri
    aguero gray long

    might play 2-5-3 depending on how shaqiri plays .

    1. thewhitepele
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Too much money on the bench.. I'd do shaqiri->4.5 and maybe ayew->martial/mkhi. Hazard would be nice too

      1. RSS447
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        boruc pieters evans and friend cost only 4.5 each
        really trying to get hazard but feel eriksen is a lot more important for spurs than hazard for chelsea .

        what do u think of the rest of the team?

        1. thewhitepele
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          I think that since you have Cech (won't really bench him ever) you could easily downgrade Boruc->Jakupovic to get an extra 0.5. Shaqiri->Capoue and the goalie change would give you funds for Ayew/Tadic->Hazard. Rest of the team looks fine

  25. jay_walker
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone know how Jerome Sinclair chances look? he used to be pretty good.

  26. TheShinKicker
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Experimenting without Aguero and Ibra:

    Heaton / Boruc

    Coleman / Taylor / Pieters (Lenihan / Smith)
    Hazard / Firmino / Payet / Mahrez / Deulofeu
    Kane / Rooney or Lukaku (4.5)

    Defence is weak but that's my personal preference.
    No City mids because I'm not at all confident of who will be in starting lineup for GW1.

    1. Norman Conquest
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      city have scored 24 times at home playing sunderland in last 7 games you need some city cover

  27. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Team A or B pls guys?

    A) Heaton- Jakupovic
    Evans-Soure-Friend-Pieters-Smith
    Miki-Hazard-Mahrez-Ibe-Fletcher
    Kun-Kane-Gray

    B) Forster-Adrian
    Sagna-Terry-Shaw-Friend-Smith
    Tadic-Fabregas-Ayew-Townsend- Fletcher
    Kun-Zlatan-Gray

    1. Norman Conquest
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      a

  28. Magic Man
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    no kun, no city, SUN gw1 RIP

    1. Magic Man
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      reply fail

  29. mo 10 years on FFS? Join my…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    I have seen Byram in a few teams now. Any idea why???

    1. Magic Man
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      cresswell inj

    2. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      wham's only natural LB fit

    3. Magic Man
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Thoughts on this? Playing around with 2/3 4.5s playing rotation and came up with this, only worry is GW5 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Rvzdmx0T5111isM3j6CDfr1gbakdomZ8h4NYfBk2hak