This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.
Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 31’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.
The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.
SUCCESS
What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.
A review so far can be found via this link, which looks at whether this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful. The next review will be at the end of the season.
On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:
- Explosive = 10+ points
- Success = 7-9 points
- Average = 4-6 points
- Fail = no attacking returns
Gameweek 30’s top pick Romelu Lukaku delivered a frustrating ‘fail’ return of 2 points this week, whilst FFS Captain Poll leader Diego Costa also managed a ‘fail’ return of just 1 point.
The clean sheet potential table proved much more successful though, highlighting four clean sheets (Man Utd, Tottenham, Leicester and Southampton) with Chelsea conceding twice to Crystal Palace.
Now let’s take a look at Gameweek 31’s results…..
FORM
| Rank | Player | Total PPG | Goals | Assists | H-PPG | A-PPG |
| 1. | Vardy | 9 | 4 | 2 | 6.75 | 4.25 |
| 2. | Alli | 8.25 | 3 | 2 | 7.5 | 4.25 |
| 3. | Sanchez | 7.5 | 3 | 1 | 7.25 | 6.5 |
| 4. | Firmino | 5.75 | 1 | 3 | 6.25 | 2.25 |
| 5 | Coutinho | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 4.75 | 3.25 |
| 6. | Ibrahimovic* | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3.25 | 6.5 |
*Ibrahimovic stats from his last 4 games before ban.
Fixtures
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded | Goal attempts in the box conceded | Total |
| 1. | Sanchez | West Ham (H) | 10 | 13 | 39 | 62 |
| 2.5 | Firmino | Bournemouth (H) | 3 | 5 | 36 | 44 |
| 2.5 | Coutinho | Bournemouth (H) | 3 | 5 | 36 | 44 |
| 4. | Vardy | Sunderland (H) | 5 | 6 | 32 | 43 |
| 5. | Alli | Swansea (A) | 6 | 6 | 23 | 35 |
| 6. | Ibra | Everton (H) | 6 | 3 | 24 | 33 |
Results
| Rank | Player | Form | Fixture | Total |
| 1. | Sanchez | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 2. | Vardy | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 3. | Firmino | 4 | 2.5 | 6.5 |
| 4. | Alli | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 5. | Coutinho | 5 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| 6. | Ibrahimovic | 6 | 6 | 12 |
Taking form and fixtures into account, Alexis Sanchez is the most likely to deliver attacking returns, according to this method.
The Chilean has a total PPG of 7.5 with three goals and one assist in his last four Gameweeks, placing him third on the form table list. The Arsenal forward takes on a West Ham side have conceded 10 times, a whopping 13 big chances and 39 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame, leaving him top of the results table. It is also worth noting that the Gunners talisman achieved his highest points haul of the season in this reverse fixture, when he scored three times and assisted another.
Jamie Vardy finishes second in the results table this week. The Leicester forward has the highest PPG on offer with nine, from four goals and two assists in the last quartet of Gameweeks, meaning he finishes top of the form table. The Englishman faces a Sunderland side that has shipped five goals and conceded six big chances as well as 32 goal attempts in the box in the same time period. He offers a strong captaincy option this week for those managers who solely prefer form indicator as a guide.
This article offers caution when considering Zlatan Ibrahimovic for the FPL armband this week.
Before his ban, the big Swede had a total PPG of 3, with a goal and an assist in his last four starts, with a -1 for his red card in his last game diminishing his returns. The Manchester United forward faces an Everton side that has conceded six goals, just three big chances and 24 goals attempts in the box in the same time frame.
Clean Sheet Potential Table
| Rank | Team |
| 1. | Leicester |
| 2. | Manchester United |
| 3. | Southampton |
| 4. | Tottenham |
| 5. | Liverpool |
