Members
12 October 2017 1541 comments
Paul Paul
Share:

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

  1. cescpistols1
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC Team?

    Fabianski Elliot
    Azpi Maguire Ward Wimmer Mbemba
    Hazard D.Silva Salah Gross RLC
    Kane Lukaku Quaner

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Gross to Chopo?

      1. PompeyUpNorth!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Nope

        1. PompeyUpNorth!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Not yet anyway

      2. cescpistols1
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Gross has some good fixtures coming up

        1. Sickboy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          His stats aren’t great though.

    2. Bergkampgoal
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Lacks wing backs imo.

  2. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Do you guys think Otamendi will start, considering the IB?

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      He will.

    2. Cityzen Kane
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Do they have many other options?? likely he will given Kompany still out

  3. Lone Wolf
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    RMWCT, please. Cheers!

    Fabianski, Elliot
    Alonso, Jones, Monreal, Mee (Mbemba)
    Hazard, Coutinho, Richarlison (Stephens, Carrick)
    Kane, Jesus, Vardy

    1. Lone Wolf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      *sry Mee is Ward

    2. VFORVANDETA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Nice team.8

    3. My Name Is Pepu
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Alonso, Jones to Azpi, Stones/Otamendi

  4. Syd.
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Have we any idea when Morata is due back

    1. My Name Is Pepu
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Last read, against Roma

  5. My Name Is Pepu
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Bottomed

    G2G lads?

    Elliot
    Ben Davies, Hegazi, Jones
    KDB, Silva, Atsu, Mkhitariyan, Salah
    Kane (c), Jesus

    1 FT, 0.7m in the bank.

    Thinking of saving FT this week, any suggestions?

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Gtg.

    2. Lone Wolf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Atsu > Choupo?
      but you will do more with 2 FT next week

      1. My Name Is Pepu
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Chupo? No chance. 2 FT will give me flexible options next week if at all I want Hazard/Morata.

        1. Lone Wolf
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          yeah, true that

  6. Espen8
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    So dissapointed that I went for Kolasinac over Monreal now. Was so close to do it aswell. And it would have given me 0.6m extra.

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Just hope he will start this week.

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Could switch to Bellerin? He's been raking it in over Kolasinac recently, annoyingly.

  7. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Is Stones nailed for the next 4 weeks?

    1. sodom85
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I think.

    2. Cityzen Kane
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      yeah, till kompany is back you'd imagine

  8. PompeyUpNorth!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    A Jesus or
    B vardy?

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      A Jesus or for sure

      1. PompeyUpNorth!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        That's my thinking until aguero is back, thanks for the reassurance

    2. VFORVANDETA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. My Name Is Pepu
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      No brainer, A) even if Kun is back.

  9. Ambrosiana Inter
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Is cahill still Chelsea s captain?

    1. ooooo
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

      1. Ambrosiana Inter
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Surely should play then right?

        1. My Name Is Pepu
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Everyone in that Chelsea will be rotated in turns, except for probably Azpi.

          1. Twisted Saltergater
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Rudiger can play RCB if needed. Isn't Alonso the only position without any real backup? Maybe Kenedy.

            1. My Name Is Pepu
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 6 months ago

              Conte has said that Moses can also play LWB if need be.

              1. Twisted Saltergater
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 16 Years
                8 years, 6 months ago

                Ah ok. Would be a bit awkward that, tho.

                1. My Name Is Pepu
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 6 months ago

                  Yep, but I've seen him play on either flanks during his West Ham stint.

  10. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Kola and Kos late fitness tests, if all is well Arsenal are not in too bad shape at all.

    1. My Name Is Pepu
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      They were awful without Mustafi, start of the season - heard he's injured long term.

      1. sentz05
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Don’t go anywhere near Arsenal’s defence. It will be make shift with players out of position.

  11. melvinmbabazi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Hey guys, What to do this week?

    1 FT, 1.2 ITB

    Foster Elliot
    Davies Mee Lascalles Naughton Simpson
    Mkhi Alli Groß RLC TC
    Kane Kaku Morata

    1. Neevesy
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      This week probably just address Morata. Long-term you need to sort out that midfield.

  12. liiusions
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Keep Kola and have Jones or TC as back up or take -4 to make him a Chelski defender? Surely guaranteed a CS vs Palace

    1. My Name Is Pepu
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Expect the unexpected, I won't take a hit in your case.

  13. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Great article! 🙂

    Last few spots on my WC... what you think?

    A. Azpi + Jesus (+Mbemba)
    B. Cedric + Lukaku (+Clark)
    C. Luiz + Jesus (+Lascelles)

    Ryan
    Otamendi • Bavies • XXX • Ward
    Sterling • Hazard • Richarlison
    Vardy • Kane • XXX
    (Elliot / XXX / TC / RLC)

    1. liiusions
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      C, if you've got TC and RLC you need 5 nailed defenders

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        This is true! Kind of hoping Mbemba is back playing this week! He’s a great option for us! If I want 100% nailed I should go Clark really, but Lascelles has a decent goal threat!

    2. VFORVANDETA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. My Name Is Pepu
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      C) by a mile

    4. T Money
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      How many drafts is this? XD

      C

  14. cescpistols1
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    How does this WC Team look? Confused whether its G2G or not.

    Fabianski Elliot
    Azpi Maguire Ward Wimmer Mbemba
    Hazard D.Silva Salah Gross RLC
    Kane Lukaku Quaner

  15. Freddo
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Not a WC but this is my team for the week.

    Elliot
    Alonso Davies Jones Cedric Naughton
    Eriksen Salah Mkhitaryan
    Kane (c) Jesus

    Foster, TCarroll RLC Hemed.

    1.5m in the bank

    Would you take a -4 to do...

    Salah to Hazard
    Salah to Sterling
    Mkhitaryan to Sterling
    Mkhitaryan to Sane
    No hits and leave it as it Is?

    Thanks in advance.

  16. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    So save ft?? Or shake it up a bit this week???

    Elliot,
    Jones, Cedric, Davies
    Ramsey, Antonio, Ritchie, Eriksen
    Lukaku, Vardy, kane (c)

    (ryan,Suttner, T.carrol, long)

    Also have my WC which is a first at this stage of season..

  17. Espen8
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Rate my team guys

    DDG
    Davies Kolasinac Lascelles Van Dijk
    Eriksen Sterling Ritchie
    Lukaku Vardy Kane (C)

    Elliot, Carroll, RLC, Long

  18. Twisted Saltergater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Very nice article and it's backed up by the eye test too. When I see United play, his team mates generate at least one big chance for Lukaku per game. It's probably fair to say that the majority of his goals have been tap ins from central locations.

    Kane on the other hand is scoring from chances of his own making, to a degree - he's scoring beyond his xG. He's so accurate and clinical that his performances are more impressive to watch, and as such, he appears more essential as a fantasy pick.

    Based on these stats it suggests Lukaku will continue to tick along (with the potential to hit a purple patch), while Kane is carrying Tottenham to a degree; he will have games where he explodes due to his own brilliance and the odd game where he blanks because of the lack of big chances created for him.

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      - until Alli starts firing again ... 😉

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        God, I hope so. I'm really keeping the faith with him.

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          He is too good to carry on blanking.

          1. *Reformed-Character*
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            He's been woeful

    2. Sickboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      This

    3. Freddo
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      It is an interesting article but it doesn't factor in the easier fixtures for United, they've had such an easy start that common sense tells you Lukaku's numbers will be strong.

      Kane has faced a slightly harder opening with a game against the Champions thrown in, the article will offer more value IMO if it measures Lukaku's numbers after the next 4.

  19. cescpistols1
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Maguire or Vardy better for Leicester cover?

    1. COLLIN QUANER
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      The one that'll score more goals

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Maybe both? Maguire is good value though for the attacking threat he offers.

    3. nadman89
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      You can also go for Simpson

  20. Pariße
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    2FT, best replacements for Mustafi (5.4m) and Mkhitaryan (8.4m selling price)?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Sterling and Luiz?

    2. Bergkampgoal
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Mustafi to VVD and save the other FT.

  21. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Who's the most likely to keep a clean sheet, Chelsea or Man City?

    1. Pierce34
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      You'd have to go with the one facing a team that hasn't scored all season 😀

    2. Pariße
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Probably Chelsea.

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      About the same I'd say. You get some funny performances after an international break. Wouldn't surprise me if Palace score their first goal at home.... it might have to be a double deflection though!

    4. Maddamotha
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Yeah.. So guess Im buyinh David Luiz then! Considering I have Chuopu as well.

  22. Óró Sé…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Would you:

    A. Mhiki to Sterling now (free)

    B. Roll FT with plan next week, Mhiki, Ritchie, Calvert-Lewin to Sterling, Vardy & 4.3 mid for -4 (523)

    C. Roll FT for Sterling, Sane, Quaner (532).

    Elliot
    Jones, Otem, Alonso, Kola, Davies
    Mhiki, Couts
    Kane, Kaku, Clewin

    Woodhouse, Ritchie, Romeu, LC

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      A seems nice given that you don't have Jesus.

      I have DCL too, and am looking at Joselu next week vs Palace at home, or bringing in Atsu as a 4th mid.

  23. The_FF_King
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Please rate my wild card team 🙂

    Elliot
    Bavies / Cedric / Monreal / Ward
    Hazard / Sterling / Silva
    Kane / Jesus / Vardy

    Subs: Mbemba, Surman, Carrol, 3.9 GK

    0.1 In the bank

    1. Coaly
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Great except bench

      1. KUNingas
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        This

      2. The_FF_King
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        I could downgrade Bavies to Trip and get a bit more out of bench if possible?

        1. Coaly
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Aurier back in 3 though

          I’d also want Cout ideally

        2. badgerboy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Trippier not nailed. Monreal > Cresswell and Mbemba > Wimmer/Dunk?

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I can't argue with it as they're all good value in their own right, but I don't like the triple Man City attack.

    3. nadman89
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I would downgrade sterling to Richarlison and upgrade Monreal to walker or otamendi. That's like having another city attacker for cheaper then use the 1.8 to upgrade bench . Surman to atsu , mbemba to naughton etc

  24. KUNingas
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Hi! Mad to go ith 5-2-3? And how to improve 1FT and 0.2 ITB.

    DDG
    Bavies | Monreal | Cedric | Cresswell | Ward
    Salah | Mkhi
    Kane | Lukaku | Firmino

    Elliot | Ritchie | TC | RLC

    A) Firmino -> Vardy
    B) Mkhi -> Sane/Sterling
    C) Both (-4)

    1. Sickboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Think you need the big guns like Alonso back there if you’re going with that approach.

  25. FPL FREAK
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Foster. Elliot.
    Bailey. Stones. Dawson. Mee. Brad Smith.
    Salah. Alli. Mikhitaryan. Ritchie. Loftus cheek.
    Kane. Lukaku. Ayew.

    So much confusion is there what changes should I made...??

    Mikhitaryan > Silva...??
    Bailey > Otamendi (double up City's defence)...??
    Lukaku > Jesus..??

    Or anyou two moves using a hit (-4)

  26. The Head-Ake
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Fabianski - (Elliot)
    Ward - Otamendi - Monreal - Davies - (Mbemba)
    Coutinho - Hazard - Silva - Richarlison - (King)
    Kane(C) - Jesus - (Niasse)

    PRMWCT. I'm not sure about this though :/

    1. Neevesy
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Looks good. Good midfield for the sake of a 3rd top striker, could well work.
      You 100% on Davies, if I had him I would keep but not sure I would WC him in.

      1. The Head-Ake
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        I already had him so I'm keeping. Might sell in the future when he loses his place or something. Vardy and Kaku scare me though

  27. sodom85
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Monreal or Otamendi .
    Cheers.

    1. The Head-Ake
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      A

  28. HellasLEAF
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Morata owners:

    Hang on, or get rid for Vardy and funds

    1. Pierce34
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Hang on for what?

      1. Pierce34
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        If you mean for pressers tomorrow, then yes, that's what I'm doing.

        1. HellasLEAF
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Thought that bit would be obvious. Hang on or transfer out for Vardy and funds.

          1. Pierce34
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            I guess if you're considering holding Morata, you must have a good bench that you're ok playing?

        2. *Reformed-Character*
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Not a chance he plays against palace, you are losing value for no reason ..

          1. Pierce34
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            I agree, but I want to wait for team news on other players I'm interested in (Jesus, Hazard) before making my decision.

  29. Team Bobcat
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Hegazi > Mee??

    First sub or may play instead of ritchie.

    I want to get enough in the kitty in preparation for Lacazette to Aguero which could happen sooner than expected

  30. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    How nailed in Luiz in that Chelsea team?

    1. CloudSky
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Pretty nailed Id say.

    2. Brehmeren
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      100%