The FA Cup Solutions – Part Two

As discussed in yesterday’s article, the forthcoming two rounds of FA Cup fixtures will impact heavily on the Premier League schedules for Gameweeks 31 and 35 respectively.

The Premier League teams who advance past the FA Cup fifth round – which gets underway this evening – and make it to the quarter-finals are set to blank in Gameweek 31.

Meanwhile, those who clinch a place in the semi-finals will also be without a fixture in Gameweek 35.

New to Fantasy Premier League (FPL) for this season, the Free Hit Chip looks tailor-made as a means to cope with these reduced sets of matches.

We’ll be looking at the strategies involved when wielding this chip as we attempt to navigate this tricky part of the season.

Having looked over the merits of using a Free Hit Chip in Gameweek 31 yesterday, we now turn our attention to what has emerged as the favoured tactic – the plan to hold for now and instead activate in Gameweek 35.

To follow, we’ll also roll out the third article in this series, which will attempt to aid those FPL managers who have already deployed their Free Hit chip.

The Fixtures

We currently have four league fixtures set to go ahead in Gameweek 35.

Everton vs Newcastle
Arsenal vs West Ham
Stoke vs Burnley
Watford vs Crystal Palace

And here’s the FA Cup Fifth Round draw, with two matches getting underway this evening.

Leicester vs Sheffield United
Chelsea vs Hull
Sheffield Wednesday vs Swansea
West Brom vs Southampton
Brighton vs Coventry
Huddersfield vs Man United
Rochdale vs Spurs
Wigan vs Man City

Of the remaining six Gameweek 35 matches still at risk, four of them require both sides involved to be knocked out of the FA Cup – either in the fifth round or quarter-finals stage – for the league fixture to stay intact.

These are:

Leicester vs Southampton
Chelsea vs Huddersfield
Man City vs Swansea
Brighton v Spurs

However, there are two FA Cup scenarios which require a defeat for just one of the Premier League sides involved – either in the fifth round or quarter-finals – to impact on Gameweek 35.

If Man United either lose away to Huddersfield or in the last eight, then the Red Devils will travel to Bournemouth in Gameweek 35.

And if West Brom are defeated by Southampton – a team they’ve lost twice to already this term – or in the last eight, then the Baggies entertain Liverpool in Gameweek 35.

The Gameweek 35 Free Hit – The Pros

One of the main advantages of playing the Free Hit chip in Gameweek 35 is that the very nature of semi-finals means there can only be four teams involved.

Therefore, even if that quartet are all top-flight teams, there can only be a maximum of four matches postponed – or, in other words, a minimum of six Gameweek 35 matches going ahead. That should offer us a wider pool of talent to recruit from with the Free Hit.

Again, your approach will likely depend on whether you have the second Wildcard available.

With the Wildcard still in hand, you could plan to deploy this in Gameweek 32 – prior to the international break. This would also allow you to benefit from a 15-day gap between deadlines, granting extra thinking time and perhaps more potential to play the market for price rises.

The alternative is to delay the Wildcard until Gameweek 33, though that will kill the potential to carry over two free transfers prior to Gameweek 34 (if you build to bank your Gameweek 33 transfer). It’s arguable whether that counters an extra week of minimising injury or suspension, or whether having two Free Transfers on the eve of the double Gameweek is more powerful.

With that decided, managers can then focus their current transfer policy on a mix of players with strong fixtures between Gameweeks 28-31, including a range of acquisitions with the blanks in Gameweek 31 in mind.

This strategy will task managers with setting their ambitions for Gameweek 31, depending on the number of fixtures taking place.

Those who already own a handful of key assets – such as Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino, Virgil van Dijk, Sadio Mane, Theo Walcott, Oumar Niasse and Xherdan Shaqiri – may feel content to avoid the use of further transfers on active players. That allows the freedom to concentrate instead on options with strong fixtures from Gameweeks 28-30 – with Spurs assets presenting obvious attractions.

The strategy then expands to play the Wildcard in Gameweek 32, clearing out unwanted assets left over from the Gameweek 31 preparations. The focus of this Wildcard would be to recruit players guaranteed two fixtures in both Gameweek 34 and in Gameweek 37.

Gameweek 32 falls after the Quarter-Finals which means we will know the semi-final line-up since no replays will be played. This means we will be aware of the teams and players who will sit out Gameweek 35 and likely handed another double-header in Gameweek 37.

This then adds extra value to the Free Hit, since it allows recruitment for the Bench Boost in Gameweek 34 with total disregard for the blanks that immediately follow in Gameweek 35.

If the Free Hit has been used, or is deployed in Gameweek 31, then any Wildcard recruitment and transfers for the Bench Boost in Gameweek 34 will have to strike a balance between those teams with two fixtures and those missing Gameweek 35.

This restricts the freedom with the Wildcard and transfers heading into Gameweek 34; it could, therefore, make the Bench Boost somewhat less effective.

Without the Free Hit chip to play in Gameweek 35, it is more difficult to have a strong full Bench Boosted 15 man squad in Gameweek 34, while also fielding a full XI in Gameweek 35. It can be done by spending points on transfers or by focusing only on those teams that are knocked out in the quarter-finals. However, this, in turn, will impact on the strength of the Gameweek 37 squad.

That may even convince some managers to reverse their strategy, deploying the Bench Boost in Gameweek 37 and the Triple Captain in 34. The main issue here is that teamsheets around Gameweek 37 are more difficult to predict: nailing a captain could be a lot easier than maximising 15 players to play twice in quick succession.

If you don’t have a Wildcard, holding the Free Hit Chip until Gameweek 35 rather than deploying in Gameweek 31 still looks likely to be the more popular strategy, particularly if only three fixtures remain following the fifth round.

However, these managers must still be wary with Gameweek 31 recruitment. Overload on active Gameweek 31 players and they will likely need to spend points on transfers to speed the transition to double Gameweek 34 and 37 players.

The Gameweek 35 Free Hit – The Cons

If you have all your chips available, the drawbacks of this strategy seem quite minimal.

There are two clear risks involved. For one, you will likely fail to achieve a full XI for Gameweek 31 and therefore run the risk of losing ground should a popular player that you overlook deliver a big score.

This means you have to try to mitigate this risk by acquiring the key targets mentioned. However, there is then the knock-on of being distracted by these players, only to miss out on big scorers in teams that are inactive in Gameweek 31.

Those using the Free Hit in Gameweek 31 have the freedom to exploit favourable schedules for Spurs (STK BOU wba), Burnley (SOT EVE whu) and Swansea (bha WHU hud) for example. If they bring in assets from these teams that fly in the next three Gameweeks, you may need the likes of Walcott and Shaqiri to keep pace over the same spell. Not impossible given their fixtures and form, but a consideration nonetheless.

The scale of the risk involved depends on the number of Gameweek 31 options you already own and the ambitions you set yourself in terms of the sweet spot for active players.

Another potential issue could be that, by Gameweek 35, the landscape in terms of team and player motivation may have shifted.

Of the eight sides guaranteed to feature in Gameweek 35, five of them – Newcastle, Stoke, West Ham, Watford and Crystal Palace – are currently relegation candidates.

If any of these teams have their fate sealed by Gameweek 35, there’s a chance that, with less at stake, their key targets for a Free Hit squad will be less profitable than in Gameweek 31, when there is still very much all to play for.

In Conclusion

As discussed in yesterday’s piece, navigating this period and optimising the Free Hit Chip is relative to a host of factors that each FPL manager needs to consider.

This includes the state of your current squad, the number of chips at your disposal, and the fixtures on offer in both Gameweek 31 and 35.

As mentioned above, the worst-case scenario for Gameweek 35 is six matches. We already know eight teams taking part – Everton, Newcastle, Arsenal, West Ham, Stoke, Burnley, Watford and Crystal Palace – while at least four more sides will be added to that list.

But on the other hand, Gameweek 31 could present just three fixtures.

Essentially, looking at the scenario’s for both Gameweeks, we could have, at the very least, double the number of teams to consider with the Gameweek 35 Free Hit. The theory is that the more options we have at our disposal, the better chance we have of profiting when building a Free Hit squad.

In addition, deploying the Free Hit chip in Gameweek 35 allows for more freedom with Wildcard recruitment in Gameweek 32, which in turn benefits our squads for the Bench Boosted double Gameweek 34 and the late double in Gameweek 37.

This is a very powerful argument in favour of the later Free Hit strategy.

However, a loss for Man United at Huddersfield tomorrow could yet alter our view.

The Red Devils’ trip to West Ham would slot in as the third confirmed fixture for Gameweek 31, bringing both Marko Arnautovic and Alexis Sanchez onto the radar as powerful differentials. That would shift more potential power the way of managers deploying the Free Hit earlier.

The results from the FA Cup fifth round matches will decide matters, with the draw for the quarter-finals on Saturday offering further clarity.

We will be providing a recap of the impact of the fifth round on the Free Hit strategies in our Scout Notes over the weekend.

But for the final part of this FA Cup impact series, we move to assess the state of play and likely strategy for those who have already spent their Free Hit chip.