Spot the Differential
31 March 2018 2111 comments
James H James H
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With partial success back in Gameweek 31 via a Salomon Rondon assist, we’ve opted for three strikers in our selection of Differentials this time around.

Front men from Manchester City, Southampton and Burnley are backed to produce as we enter the final block of the season.

Gabriel Jesus

With Sergio Aguero remaining a doubt for Manchester City’s trip to Everton, his team-mate and fellow striker Gabriel Jesus looks a tempting option.

The Brazilian made his first start against Stoke City in Gameweek 30 following a spell on the sidelines and produced his fifth assist of the campaign in the 2-0 win.

The forward now faces an Everton side that have managed just one clean sheet from their last 11 encounters.

Jesus has scored eight goals from 21 league outings and just 13 starts, and should be handed plenty of opportunities at Goodison Park leading the line for league’s top scoring side.

Pep Guardiola’s men have scored a sensational 85 goals, 12 more than second-placed Liverpool.

They have also created an astounding 108 big chances, with Liverpool again the next best on 93.

Given the injuries to Aguero and Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane, Jesus could represent good value as a replacement, priced at 10.0 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

Owned by only 6.7% of FPL managers, he might just be worth a roll of the dice if you believe City can run riot on Merseyside in their bid to seal the title.

Charlie Austin

With an eye not just on Gameweek 32, but also the upcoming Double Gameweek 34, Southampton’s Charlie Austin is an interesting name to consider.

The Saints forward is in line to return to the squad for this afternoon’s crunch trip to fellow strugglers West Ham United after recovering from a hamstring injury.

By the time Mark Hughes’s side face Chelsea and Leicester City in Double Gameweek 34, the striker is expected to be fully up to speed.

Austin’s importance to Southampton’s survival hopes cannot be understated.

He is their top goalscorer with six goals, despite injuries and a suspension limiting him to just five starts.

Significantly, his underlying statistics are hugely impressive given his budget price tag of just 5.8 in FPL.

The former Queens Park Rangers front man has fired a shot every 22.1 minutes over the season, which is only bettered by Kane (15) and Aguero (21.4) among regular starting forwards.

Indeed, only Aguero betters Austin’s minutes per goal record this campaign, with the Saints striker finding the net every 98.1 minutes compared with the Argentine’s 93.8 minutes.

Facing a West Ham side that have conceded more goals (11) than any other side over the last four matches, Austin could enjoy another successful afternoon at the London Stadium, having produced a goal and an assist in this fixture last term.

He also netted the winner from the penalty spot in a 3-2 victory in the reverse fixture this season, despite only playing 10 minutes as a substitute.

While investment in the 0.6%-owned striker does carry a risk as he may not be fit to start this afternoon, his goalscoring record when on the pitch suggests he could be worth a gamble for the run-in, particularly with the south coast club benefitting from two double Gameweeks.

Chris Wood

While team-mate Ashley Barnes (5.3) has been the name on the lips of many managers due to his more budget-friendly price tag, fellow Burnley forward Chris Wood should not be overlooked.

The New Zealand international has scored three goals in two substitute appearances since returning from a knee injury, and has strong claims for a recall for this afternoon’s trip to West Bromwich Albion.

His chances have certainly increased since he was omitted from the New Zealand squad for their friendly with Canada.

Wood matches up very well when compared to Barnes.

Despite being limited to just 17 appearances, as opposed to 29 for Barnes, the New Zealander holds the edge for goals scored (seven to six).

Indeed, he has a goal every 157.4 minutes, which is far superior to Barnes (269.3).

Wood has also been involved in a staggering 62% of Burnley’s goals scored when he’s been on the pitch, which helps justify the extra outlay required to bring in the 6.2-price forward.

Facing a West Brom defence that has shipped nine goals in their last three encounters at the Hawthorns, Wood looks to have the ideal platform to maintain his strong form.

With his appeal also boosted by a Double Gameweek 34 (LEI/CHE) and a fixture in Gameweek 35 away to Stoke City, the 1.2%-owned Wood could be a powerful differential for the season run-in.

  1. Triple Crap
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    With Yoshida back in contention is Stephens nailed? If he is, I think he might a better long term option for me than Tark (I have Lowton Dunk Alonso & Morgan). Which should I go with - Tark or Stephens?

    1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      no he’s not nailed. and he plays for Southampton. i’d avoid personally

      1. Triple Crap
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        You’re right. Southampton. What am I thinking?! Need to step away from the forum. Getting PTWCD.

  2. MrMajeika
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    thoughts on wc? 1.6 itb and all chips remaining.
    ddg (ryan)
    alonso Monreal lowton
    Salah mahrez Willian Arnie kenedy
    Murray auba

    A) Monreal or mustafi
    B) Murray or Austin
    C) Morgan or dummett

    1. Zero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Yep, and either, Austin and Morgan resp. IMO.

    2. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A) mustafi
      B) Murray
      C) Morgan

  3. Ruud van Basten
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    a) Miki and Tony V
    or
    b) Mahrez and Mustafi.

    1. Van der Faart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A because of United defence

  4. william prunier
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    If planning to do Alonso to Christensen in 34 does it make sense to just go with Valencia this gw instead? Then switch to Christensen next week?

    1. GE
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Sounds good

  5. adam28193
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    on WC, which do you prefer? No FH

    Willian and Firmino

    Lukaku and Gudmundsson

    1. GE
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B

  6. GE
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Bailly or Christensen long-term?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Bailly - doubt Christensen will play both in double

      1. DJ1000
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Think you can say the same about Bailly. In fact Bailly more likely to be rotated against Bournemouth in 2nd dbgw match

  7. Miguel Sanchez
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    GTG?

    DDG
    Alonso Bailly Mustafi
    Salah (c) Mahrez Son Willian
    Auba Firmino Murray

    Ryan Gudmundsen Lowton Tark

    1. iveseenitall
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I like it, very similar to my own team. Im thinking there's some value to be had over the doubles in picking more expensive and nailed defenders.

    2. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Excellent yes - I assume you are switching out Bobby later?

  8. damiang2233
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Bottomed sorry lads

    Anyone think salah or Firminio might be rested??

    1. Bleach †
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      No

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Not this week - Firmino maybe next weekend

    3. iveseenitall
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Not rested over either i dont think but definately reduced minutes.

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        I agree - both 70 mins

    4. DJ1000
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Palace players struggling. The likes of Zaha and Sakai. Can see Liverpool going 3-0 up after 60 and Firmino and salah coming off

  9. Tabbara
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Too heavy in defence?
    De gea Ryan
    Mustafi Morgan Alonso Bailly Lowton
    Son Mahrez Willian Gross Salah
    Austin Auba Vardy
    0.7 ITB

    Cedric for Mustafi?
    thx

    1. DJ1000
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      No I like it. Mustafi likely to start both easy games at home

  10. DanLFC1
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    A) bailly
    B) vert
    C) a sub 5.0 already got Lowton and Morgan, to afford Lukaku > Kane later

    1. bigbudgie
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      A

  11. bigbudgie
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Last question I promise!

    A) Alli/Stanislas/Vardy
    B) Son/Kenedy/Auba

    (A leaves me with 14/15 for BB in 34, B only 12)

    1. Zero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B

  12. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Is Wood worth .7 m over Barnes? No FH so need to balance 34 double with 35.

    A Wood
    B Barnes

    Front playing 7 would be

    Salah (c) Son Willian Mahrez
    Aubameyang Wood Firmino

    Bench- Gudmundsson ( would play if had Barnes and bench Barnes)

    1. Kun Tozser
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I have

      1. Kun Tozser
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        And playing him over Willian

    2. #FPLBhuna
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Wood is far better

      If I was wcing I would get him over Barnes

  13. Dr. DOOM
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Stephens good enough 5th defender?

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Yup

  14. Kun Tozser
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Mustafi or Monreal?

  15. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    I have gone with Fernandez and King in my team for a B.B. 34 most likely. Yes not ideal but leaves me flexible for 37. Stephens hasn’t got good fixtures either in 34.

    Only thing that worries me will be the 5th mid on people’s bench boost but I don’t think I’ll lose too many points. Thoughts?

  16. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    So what's the thinking on Man Utd defenders (esp. Smalling) now?

    Tempted to get Arsenal def for two and see what occurs with their defence, and if its still unclear get Christensen or a cheap doubler. Have DDG.

    Any views?

    1. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Interesting theory, I’m contemplating this myself. Only downside is having a planned transfer, and I’m already planning auba to Lukaku. Mustafi would be the defender of choice IMO.most assured of game time with Kos being rested

    2. DJ1000
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I have Mustafi and took out Smalling for Kiko in last night so I can get Kane in gw34

  17. Reiko
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Currently on my WC with no FH Chip left. Team is as below:

    DDG
    Alonso Lowton Mustafi
    Sane Mahrez Willian Salah
    Aubameyang Wood Lukaku(c)

    Subs: Hennessey Ibe Mariappa Morgan

    GTG or any changes to be made?
    Only 0.4 in the bank. Current plan is to bring Son for Sane next week. Use BB34 with 10 DGW players, and make 3 transfers to have 10 for BGW35.

  18. CloudSky
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Deadline in 2 hours, right?

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      +13mins

      1. CloudSky
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Ta

  19. doncastro
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Yay or Nay? Play Shaw (SWA) over King (wat)? That's assuming Shaw for me will either play from the start or not feature

  20. Lignja
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Bench one

    A. Lowton
    B. Tark
    C. Morgan

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Morgan

    2. Meinhoff
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Tark

  21. BobGeldof
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Wonder how firmino didn't get a mention in the scout squad ? Seems an obvious choice

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Marks obvs binned him 😉

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Salah obvious, Firmino not so.

    3. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Palace will park bus if no wilf

      1. DJ1000
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 27 days ago

        Not sure you can park the bus against Liverpool. And Man U scored 3 at Palace

  22. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Has anyone settled the Barnes/Gross versus Murray/Gudmundsson debate?

    1. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Personally I think gross will be the highest scorer so I’ve gone with that combo

    2. MrFrodo
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I've gone Barnes/Gross but now I don't know what one to bench today!

    3. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      There are 2 more combinations. Why did you leave those out?

    4. The Left Duke #3
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I'm going Murray/Gud purely to save 0.3m. If they were even money I'd go Gros/Barnes. Wood back tho doesn't cause an issue for Barnes

  23. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Who’s more important for the next 2 GWs. Vardy or Lukaku? Will have both by the time 34 rolls around

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Vards

    2. MrFrodo
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Its a close one but i've gone Vardy

  24. JurgenRodgers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Play Barnes or Groß this Gw?

    1. The Left Duke #3
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Gross. I'd nearly play Barnes over Son tho if you have him

  25. Fatty Interim
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Lads, I'm in crisis, please help...

    DDG Smithy/ RVLP/ Zank
    Jones Mee Robo
    Shaq Ster Sal Son
    Troy Rom Bob

    Do I take a hit and sell Shaqira for:

    a) WIllian
    b) Gross
    c) Miki
    d) Don't take a hit yet

    BTW I'm 2nd 20p behind / guy's made 1 TF and he has Gross

  26. Zero
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Quick question, is there any generally agreed census over whether BB is better for GW34 or GW37?

  27. rodog
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Good to go?

    DDG Ryan
    Alonso Lowton Morgan Mustafi Tarkowski
    Son Salah Willian Mahrez Gudmundsson
    Aubameyang Murray Lukaku

    I have 0.6 in the bank if there's a better option somewhere??

  28. MrFrodo
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Who to bench?

    A. Gross (LEI)
    B. Barnes (wha)

    1. Aussie Rules
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      Barnes

    2. The Left Duke #3
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      B

  29. Tommo1888
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    How many DGWs are people looking to have for gw34?

    1. Dr. DOOM
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      14

    2. CloudSky
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      14

    3. Naboo
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      14

    4. FPL Pillars
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      About 10 haha

    5. MrFrodo
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      11 but will be bringing in 2 more by GW34

  30. Magic Box
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 27 days ago

    Any reason not to go Wood over Barnes if money is no object?

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      None at all I like wood

    2. MrFrodo
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 27 days ago

      I was going to get Wood in my WC team but opted for barnes in the end just for the savings.