Metrics
7 April 2018 2516 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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After a disappointing and low-scoring start to the Gameweek, it’s time to lose ourselves in a dose of metrics with the focus on the latest rash of Wildcards.

But first I would like to start this article with a few thoughts on the purpose of these pieces and the data they expose.

There was a recent Hot Topic discussing the use of metrics and statistics to analyse the moves of top managers, and I wanted to add a few points to the discussion.

For me, every time the game updates after the deadline, one of the first things I do is to scan my rivals’ squads to learn who they brought in, who they captained and if they used any chips.

It’s a common practice, and I believe that there are two main reasons why we look at competitors in this way.

Firstly, competition is a big part of why Fantasy games are so compelling and addictive.

Knowing what I am up against before the matches kick off gives me another perspective during the moments of triumph and frustration that occur throughout the Gameweek.

Secondly, a view on the moves and decisions of the teams around me can help decide my own planning. It can give me more information about what differentiates my squad from rival managers.

I don’t mine this information to copy their teams, in fact, most of the time, it means the very opposite.

I use it to look for strategies that I could only identify after knowing exactly what I’m up against. Metrics allow me to build a picture of behaviour and decisions around me and I use that to shape my own strategy.

Your rivals are not just mini-league managers; we’re competing against every active team.

Looking at ownership of players, templates of Wildcards and captain picks mirrors how we check on our friend’s teams in mini-leagues, but on a larger scale.

It provides the fun and anticipation during the actual games and could also help decide on a strategy to beat the average and inform on risk and reward when considering transfers.

Some managers claim that ownership data is useless, and while picking a player just because he is highly owned is not a strategy that I endorse, it’s not the metrics that are behind such a tactic. They just provide extra information that each manager can use in their own way.

As an example, while I happily invest a good amount of time creating and looking at metrics, I avoided Romelu Lukaku on my Wildcard plan, despite knowing that he has a relatively high ownership and would be a probable captain in Gameweek 34.

Instead, I went for a differential strategy of tripling up on the Manchester United defence, which is against the established template.

However, paying attention to metrics has helped me articulate my plans this season and has assisted in my first ever top 10k rank placing, which, fingers crossed, I now hope to maintain.

So, metrics are just like any other statistics. They are a way of organising a look at manager behaviour in the past to help us plan for the future, using our own methods and thinking.

That being said, now let’s look at this Gameweek 33’s statistics.

Once again the Wildcard chip proved very popular as managers bid to prepare for the Double Gameweek 34. Overall some 93858 Wildcards were played.

We have seen that last week 21.53% of the top 10k managers (and 15.87% of the top 100k) chose to activate the chip.

This week, we have a smaller crowd with 11.03% of the top 10k putting the chip in play, as part of 9.79% in the top 100k .

That raises the total percentage of second Wildcards used in the top 10k and top 100k to 75.07% and 71.02% respectively.

So there are still a quarter of the top managers who have kept their Wildcard for the later stages of the season.

members

Many factors have changed since last week, and the managers who delayed the refresh certainly had more information at hand.

Mohamed Salah’s injury scare and the speedy return of his Golden Boot rival Harry Kane are two very important shifts in the landscape that occurred since Gameweek 32.

So, let’s look at how the most selected Wildcard team has changed.

members
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There are some notable differences between the two teams.

Salah is only selected by 43.25% of the Wildcards as opposed to 99.5% of last week’s chips.

Many Gameweek 33 Wildcarders dropped him and opted for Kane instead; indeed a hefty 77.2% chose this route.

Salah’s lower percentage seems to be balanced by a surge of interest in Jesse Lingard (43.6%) who is the enabler to fund the Kane move.

Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy both make their way out of the template Wildcard team so that Kane could come in.

This leads to a higher ownership for Ashley Barnes (55.8%), which is also a knock-on for his stunning goal at The Hawthorns – his fourth in four Gameweeks.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most chosen forward claiming 77.8% of Wildcards, with a probable planned shift to either Kane or Lukaku to come ahead of Double Gameweek 34.

While the goalkeeping positions remain settled for David de Gea and Matthew Ryan, the defence sees a drastic change.

The main difference is that new Wildcarders have decided to ignore Manchester United backline. The unexpected benching of Eric Bailly in Gameweek 32, along with the return of Phil Jones, threatens the starting role of Chris Smalling and has proved a major deterrent.

Some 60.2% of managers opted for Ben Chilwell as they cheap route into Leicester’s defence, though the template doubles up here to also include their skipper Wes Morgan.

Along with Burnley’s Matthew Lowton and James Tarkowski, that Leicester pair clearly proved vital for freeing cash for the potential swap from Aubameyang to Kane and Lukaku.

Finally, the Andrew Robertson pick of Gameweek 32 Wildcard is replaced by Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen who is perhaps seen as more assured a week later. Marcos Alonso is therefore omitted to save funds for the expensive frontline.

So, the strategy prefered by Gameweek 33 Wildcarders is to double up on cheap defenders of Burnley and Leicester to splash the cash elsewhere.

Now, let’s delve deeper by looking at the club breakdown.

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We see that Spurs assets showed a significant boost in selection this week, with confidence in Kane, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli booming ahead of their Double Gameweek 34.

Meanwhile, interest in Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal has declined.

Moving on to this week selection statistics, it’s Aubameyang who is most captained in the top 100k managers, with 41.1% of the managers now waiting on his potential haul against Southampton on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the 18% who captained Kane will be bitterly frustrated at the Match Centre decision to hand Christian Eriksen’s Spurs’ second goal earlier today.

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The ownership of Salah dropped this week to 83.11% (started by 72.8%) in the top 100k and 81.7% (started by 71.2%) in the top 10k, compared to around 99.5% last week.

With his possible return for the Champions League on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if Salah sales continue.

Finally, we present the team with players with the highest effective ownership – which is the regular ownership plus captaincy – in the top 100k.

members

Many of the players in this line-up have already failed to produce today, like Firmino, Kane, Heung-min Son, Riyad Mahrez and De Gea. Others failed to even feature such as Salah, Robertson, Rob Elliot and Ben Davies.

That all points to where we started this article: this looks destined to be a low scoring Gameweek for many.

  1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    that was quick!

  2. jdp219
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    For dgw34. 2FTs, 0.9itb. Planning to use BB. Probably need to do this soon as Kane is probably going to rise.

    1) Auba, Mustafi > Kane, Mariappa
    2) Auba, Azpi > Kane, Smalling
    3) Auba, Gud, Azpi > Kane, Milivojevich, Smalling (-4)

  3. arndff_
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    [H2H] Who will win?

    A) 29 + Hazard(c)
    B) 11 + Alonso, Mustafi, Willian, Auba(c)

    1) 29 + Kante, Ramsey
    2) 11 + Mustafi, Willian, Auba(c)

    1. Fantasyamateur
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      B

      1. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        What's your prediction about the second one?

        1. Fantasyamateur
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Oh.. didn't see that. 2.

          1. arndff_
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Thanks... Hope you're right!!!

            Good luck!

    2. ZeBestee
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      B

      1. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        There are 2 H2H games:
        * A vs B
        * 1 vs 2

        So what's your prediction about the second one?

        1. ZeBestee
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          2. Ramsey might unbalance it a bit but Auba (C) edges it.

          1. arndff_
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Thank you, mate. Hope you're right! Good luck!

            1. ZeBestee
              • 11 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Not bad. 25 (-4) this gw with Auba, Willian and Mustafi to go. Ended up going Lukaku 》Kane coz i am looking at bringing in Sanchez instead for the double. How about you mate? Good luck to your Auba (C) btw, went Kane myself.

              1. arndff_
                • 14 Years
                7 years, 11 months ago

                An awful GW... 😥

                Ryan(3)
                Alonso Mustafi Morgan(1)
                Mahrez(2) Son(2) Willian Gross(2)
                Lukaku(1) Auba(C) Barnes(2)

                13pts with Alonso, Mustafi, Willian and Auba(c) to go...

                PS: In the post, it seems like I made a mistake because I didn't count Barnes 2 points off the bench.

  4. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Damn. My GW33 WC is so template.

  5. eazy
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Who is the best TC for 34?

    1. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Kaku or Sanchez

    2. Tommo1888
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      And maybe Pogba ?

      1. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Knee jerk

  6. Fantasyamateur
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Have exactly enough to do Mustafi and Auba to Naughton and Kane tonight for a hit before Kane's price raise. Do it or wait?

    DDG - Ryan
    Mustafi - Morgan - Tarkowski - Lowton - Christensen
    Willian - Alli - Mahrez - Gudmundsson - Gross
    Vardy - Auba - Lukaku

    Will give me 14 DGWers..

  7. Yellin' in my Ear
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Barnes still the preferred 6.2 and under striker? Planning my provisional transfers for next week (assuming Salah doesn't make it)

    1. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I think yes

  8. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Who is the best captain for GW34?

    1. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I am going for Lukaku(c) most probably after an Auba to Lukaku transfer

    2. Tiki-Taka
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Between Kane and Lukaku IMO, close one

    3. Bunk Moreland
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Sanchez for me.

    4. lilmessipran
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      crybaby kane imo

    5. MTPockets
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Lukaku/Sanchez

      • arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Kane/Lukaku/Sanchez must be the popular ones

      • Viper
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Flat track bully Romelu

      • Smurf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I’m not sure he’s the best but mines Sanchez and it’s locked in. It’s a risk but I’m willing to make it.

        1. Viper
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Not that big of a risk reslly

      • *sigh*
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Salah just sold for Alexis (C) here

      • BobBradleysOpportunity
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        sanchez if i had him

    6. ZeBestee
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Is the Kane decision 100% confirmed now? Or there is still a chance of it being given?

      1. lordkippe
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I am very convinced it is a Kane goal. I can see it being given in the premier league statistics but not in fantasy

      2. Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        It's about time McAuleys Law kicked in...

      3. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        No chance.

        They gave the goal to Eriksen. Won't switch it back to Kane again.

    7. Tommo1888
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Struggling to work out who to get in for next week

      Lukaku or Pogba ????

    8. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I do love a pie chart!

      1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        id prefer a pie cart

    9. Sliver
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Right gents - what is the best time to TC, GW 34 or GW 37 - and I have 10 DGWers for 34 and 12 for 37.

      No brainer to TC now, right?

    10. Bunk Moreland
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      With a -4 I could bench boost in Ryan, Cedric, Cork and Bauer. Worth it or save it for 37?

      (If I don't go for BB, my FT is probably gonna be Mane > Alli.)

      1. MTPockets
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Probably save, although BB often a let down anyway.

          1. Bunk Moreland
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Yeah I don't expect much, my best year was 14 points if i remember correctly. I don't want to screw up my team structure by having an expensive mid to BB in.

            1. MTPockets
                7 years, 11 months ago

                Several good teams with pricier players have good fixtures in 37. When I played around with it wasn't left with much for bench - that motivated gw34 BB. But ryan, bur defs etc prob won't set world on fire in 34 either.

                1. Bunk Moreland
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 11 months ago

                  Indeed... I was gonna FH in 34 actually, but the leaked lineup from Liverpool + injury to Stanislas suddenly made my 33 team look aweful. After a -8 I got Sanchez, Arnie and Austin in this morning and 34 is suddenly ok without the fh. I haven't really planned this out as you can see :p

            2. Bunk Moreland
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Cheers btw Mtp 🙂

          2. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            work out what your bench would look like for gw37 first. i’m not sure you’ll get many points from that bench

            1. Bunk Moreland
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Thanks for taking the time to reply, Shotgun 🙂

              Main appeal of 37 is Kenedy and Masuaku which I think can be good players for a BB.

              Thing is if I save it for 37, I will spend transfers on my bench which could perhaps be better spent on my first 11.

        • TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Fantastic article Ragabolly!

          1. Ragabolly
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Thanks man 🙂

            1. Patch
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Really good article ragabolly!

              If everyones scores were higher, there would be more back patting, but good info given thanks!

        • Legomané
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Mili last 8 matches:

          10 8 2 2 2 10 9 10

          Now that's what I call Fodder...real good fodder
          😯

          7.0m next season?

          1. arndff_
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Won't cost that much.

            Around 6.0M I guess.

          2. ZeBestee
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            5.5 or 6.0.

            1. Legomané
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              I'll have him for 5.5

          3. Pat Bonner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            The new Capoue but with pens

            1. Legomané
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Doucouré is the new Capoue.

              Milivojevic was a shrewd pick.

        • Alex_thekid
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          I wildcarded and got 25 points with only Aubameyang captain and Willian left to play ffs shite I think that my team before WC done better lol 🙁

          1. Whats the Mata?
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            25 is a good score man.

            1. Alex_thekid
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Are you sure I thought i done sh*** I forgot to save my team as well after I WC and left Willian Morgan and Kiko on the bench and played Dunk and Tarkowski lucky i had Salah captain and Aubameyang VC and Willian 1st on the bench lol

        • Alex_thekid
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          What's the average score this week?

          1. badgerboy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            19 for top 10,000. 21 overall.

          2. arndff_
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Go check FPL Discovery

          3. Alex_thekid
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Thanks

        • Waylander
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Just transferred Alli > Eriksen for -4. Whoops.

          1. Tiki-Taka
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            how's your knee

            1. Waylander
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              jerking all over the place lol

              1. Tiki-Taka
                • 15 Years
                7 years, 11 months ago

                hahaha evident mate

        • Whats the Mata?
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Any chance Sanchez rises tonight?

          1. Pukki Party
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            No

        • lordkippe
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          18-8 with Mustafi, Hazard, Auba & Austin left. Captain was Kane.... bottomed

          1. Smurf
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Glad you reposted to let us know.

        • Legomané
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Congratulations to GW34 FH'ers, wish I'd had the balls, and an injury or two less to deal with this wk 🙁

        • Bunk Moreland
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Wow, that template...

          De Gea (2)

          Otamendi (1) Davies (0) Robertson (0)

          Salah (0) Mahrez (2) Son (2) Sterling (4)

          Firmino (1) Kane (1)

          Auba and Willian to go.

        • Only a Hazard of time
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Can someone explain how Shaqiri kept his 'assist'? I'm not complaining because I still have him (lol), but Lloris clearly gets to it first and kicks it off Diouf?

          1. Somalion
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Oh was that given? Was watching the match and immediately assumed it wouldn't be, attempted pass intercepted, smacked off the goal scorer and then scored.

        • GingerPrince
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          On a FH.... after I confirm transfers using FH, can I "tinker" with more transfers afterwards ( like a WC) or is my team "set" for the next GW after I press the FH button???

          Thanks in advance:)

          1. Smurf
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            You can tinker.

          2. DJDave1979
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            You can bugger about with the team all week. It's essentially a temporary wildcard.

        • HD7
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          If I have to choose between Andy King and Tom Carroll eho should I pick as bench fodder?

          1. Pukki Party
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            King

            1. HD7
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Isnt ge the defensive one from the two or nailed?

        • Whats the Mata?
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          How many getting rid of Salah?

          1. Garth Marenghi
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Dropped him yesterday

            1. Flynny
              • 10 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Going this week I think

        • Garth Marenghi
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Should we drop Firmino now? Considering champions league? Assuming Liverpool win, they’ll have two CL games on either side of gw 36. Potential rest for their attack on gw 35, 36, 37.

          1. Only a Hazard of time
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            I'm probably going to drop him for Kane. CL qualification is practically confirmed, they can afford to take one hand off the wheel in the league.

            1. Garth Marenghi
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Yea, I think Liverpool defense could possibly be the better move for fpl, considering their easy schedule.

          2. The Knights Template
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            y

          3. Bunk Moreland
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            I dropped before this gw. Had him since gw1 but time to let him go I think, their focus is likely to be on CL.

            1. Garth Marenghi
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Yeah, if not now then near future

        • Rash
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Alot of this explains why I'm on 10 lousy points today

        • HNI
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Is smalling still good bet for dgw or his poor defending for kompany goal inspite of winner?

        • Flynny
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Any early views on the following plan? Bb34

          Auba salah and son to kane sanchez and 6m (maybe lingard) - 4

          Ddg ryan
          Alonso verthongen tarko lowton morgan
          Salah mahrez son willian gros
          Auba vardy barnes

          Thanks