Metrics
7 April 2018 2516 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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After a disappointing and low-scoring start to the Gameweek, it’s time to lose ourselves in a dose of metrics with the focus on the latest rash of Wildcards.

But first I would like to start this article with a few thoughts on the purpose of these pieces and the data they expose.

There was a recent Hot Topic discussing the use of metrics and statistics to analyse the moves of top managers, and I wanted to add a few points to the discussion.

For me, every time the game updates after the deadline, one of the first things I do is to scan my rivals’ squads to learn who they brought in, who they captained and if they used any chips.

It’s a common practice, and I believe that there are two main reasons why we look at competitors in this way.

Firstly, competition is a big part of why Fantasy games are so compelling and addictive.

Knowing what I am up against before the matches kick off gives me another perspective during the moments of triumph and frustration that occur throughout the Gameweek.

Secondly, a view on the moves and decisions of the teams around me can help decide my own planning. It can give me more information about what differentiates my squad from rival managers.

I don’t mine this information to copy their teams, in fact, most of the time, it means the very opposite.

I use it to look for strategies that I could only identify after knowing exactly what I’m up against. Metrics allow me to build a picture of behaviour and decisions around me and I use that to shape my own strategy.

Your rivals are not just mini-league managers; we’re competing against every active team.

Looking at ownership of players, templates of Wildcards and captain picks mirrors how we check on our friend’s teams in mini-leagues, but on a larger scale.

It provides the fun and anticipation during the actual games and could also help decide on a strategy to beat the average and inform on risk and reward when considering transfers.

Some managers claim that ownership data is useless, and while picking a player just because he is highly owned is not a strategy that I endorse, it’s not the metrics that are behind such a tactic. They just provide extra information that each manager can use in their own way.

As an example, while I happily invest a good amount of time creating and looking at metrics, I avoided Romelu Lukaku on my Wildcard plan, despite knowing that he has a relatively high ownership and would be a probable captain in Gameweek 34.

Instead, I went for a differential strategy of tripling up on the Manchester United defence, which is against the established template.

However, paying attention to metrics has helped me articulate my plans this season and has assisted in my first ever top 10k rank placing, which, fingers crossed, I now hope to maintain.

So, metrics are just like any other statistics. They are a way of organising a look at manager behaviour in the past to help us plan for the future, using our own methods and thinking.

That being said, now let’s look at this Gameweek 33’s statistics.

Once again the Wildcard chip proved very popular as managers bid to prepare for the Double Gameweek 34. Overall some 93858 Wildcards were played.

We have seen that last week 21.53% of the top 10k managers (and 15.87% of the top 100k) chose to activate the chip.

This week, we have a smaller crowd with 11.03% of the top 10k putting the chip in play, as part of 9.79% in the top 100k .

That raises the total percentage of second Wildcards used in the top 10k and top 100k to 75.07% and 71.02% respectively.

So there are still a quarter of the top managers who have kept their Wildcard for the later stages of the season.

members

Many factors have changed since last week, and the managers who delayed the refresh certainly had more information at hand.

Mohamed Salah’s injury scare and the speedy return of his Golden Boot rival Harry Kane are two very important shifts in the landscape that occurred since Gameweek 32.

So, let’s look at how the most selected Wildcard team has changed.

members
members

There are some notable differences between the two teams.

Salah is only selected by 43.25% of the Wildcards as opposed to 99.5% of last week’s chips.

Many Gameweek 33 Wildcarders dropped him and opted for Kane instead; indeed a hefty 77.2% chose this route.

Salah’s lower percentage seems to be balanced by a surge of interest in Jesse Lingard (43.6%) who is the enabler to fund the Kane move.

Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy both make their way out of the template Wildcard team so that Kane could come in.

This leads to a higher ownership for Ashley Barnes (55.8%), which is also a knock-on for his stunning goal at The Hawthorns – his fourth in four Gameweeks.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most chosen forward claiming 77.8% of Wildcards, with a probable planned shift to either Kane or Lukaku to come ahead of Double Gameweek 34.

While the goalkeeping positions remain settled for David de Gea and Matthew Ryan, the defence sees a drastic change.

The main difference is that new Wildcarders have decided to ignore Manchester United backline. The unexpected benching of Eric Bailly in Gameweek 32, along with the return of Phil Jones, threatens the starting role of Chris Smalling and has proved a major deterrent.

Some 60.2% of managers opted for Ben Chilwell as they cheap route into Leicester’s defence, though the template doubles up here to also include their skipper Wes Morgan.

Along with Burnley’s Matthew Lowton and James Tarkowski, that Leicester pair clearly proved vital for freeing cash for the potential swap from Aubameyang to Kane and Lukaku.

Finally, the Andrew Robertson pick of Gameweek 32 Wildcard is replaced by Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen who is perhaps seen as more assured a week later. Marcos Alonso is therefore omitted to save funds for the expensive frontline.

So, the strategy prefered by Gameweek 33 Wildcarders is to double up on cheap defenders of Burnley and Leicester to splash the cash elsewhere.

Now, let’s delve deeper by looking at the club breakdown.

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We see that Spurs assets showed a significant boost in selection this week, with confidence in Kane, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli booming ahead of their Double Gameweek 34.

Meanwhile, interest in Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal has declined.

Moving on to this week selection statistics, it’s Aubameyang who is most captained in the top 100k managers, with 41.1% of the managers now waiting on his potential haul against Southampton on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the 18% who captained Kane will be bitterly frustrated at the Match Centre decision to hand Christian Eriksen’s Spurs’ second goal earlier today.

members



The ownership of Salah dropped this week to 83.11% (started by 72.8%) in the top 100k and 81.7% (started by 71.2%) in the top 10k, compared to around 99.5% last week.

With his possible return for the Champions League on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if Salah sales continue.

Finally, we present the team with players with the highest effective ownership – which is the regular ownership plus captaincy – in the top 100k.

members

Many of the players in this line-up have already failed to produce today, like Firmino, Kane, Heung-min Son, Riyad Mahrez and De Gea. Others failed to even feature such as Salah, Robertson, Rob Elliot and Ben Davies.

That all points to where we started this article: this looks destined to be a low scoring Gameweek for many.

  1. Distinctly Average
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Do we think salah plays against bou?

    BB team depends on whether he plays

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Probably.

    2. Rik Waller
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I think he will. Dunno what "we" think though

  2. mrwinner
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Lukaku will surely not play the Wednesday away at Bouremouth and then again v Spurs in the cup on Saturday. Kane however has an extra day of rest s could play them all.

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      He will play all.

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      It's Lukaku.

    3. Rik Waller
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Jose will play Lukaku for every game he can. If only to boost his stats, and justify the huge price tag on him,

  3. Tiki-Taka
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Kane set to rise again???? jeez

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yes

      1. Tiki-Taka
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Can't remember many rising at this rate historically (0.1 the night before now again)

        1. HamezMace
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Especially after a 1 point return

          1. Tiki-Taka
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            yeah exactly

  4. Thunder Warrior
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Lukaku and Son or Kane and Lingard?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      B

    2. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A

  5. HD7
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Have Kane Lukaku ... who to C in GW34?
    *Currently on Lukaku

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Lukaku as that's who it's on.

      1. HD7
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Thanks buddy

  6. Pras (FPL)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Chances of either Christensen or Willian to miss full game tomorrow?

    Need some of that Smalling jam.

    1. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A small chance but chance nonetheless

  7. Fantasyamateur
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Have exactly enough to do Mustafi and Auba to Naughton and Kane tonight for a hit before Kane's price raise. Do it or wait?

    DDG - Ryan
    Mustafi - Morgan - Tarkowski - Lowton - Christensen
    Willian - Alli - Mahrez - Gudmundsson - Gross
    Vardy - Auba - Lukaku

    Will give me 14 DGWers and will use BB in 34.. Also using FH in 35 so don't have to take that GW into consideration.

  8. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Lingaard, Pogba and Lukaku on a FH? Too much United?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      No such thing as too much.

    2. william prunier
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Sanchez over Lukaku

      1. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        That's too much.

    3. MTPockets
        7 years, 11 months ago

        No but Pogba based on just one game?

    4. william prunier
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Anyone else having to pull the trigger tonight to get Kane in?

      1. n-doggg
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Would really have liked more time to decide on Kane vs Lukaku. Can’t make my mind up

      2. barton fc
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        why, no prices looking to rise tonight. according to fix?

        1. n-doggg
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Stats say Kane is going up

      3. European Bob
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Yep

      4. flippetyflop
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I'm in exactly the same position.

        I think at this stage of the season it depends on where you are in your ML's/who your rivals have and what you're trying to accomplish.

    5. barton fc
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      best long term option?

      A) eriksen alli kaku
      B) sanchez lingard kane
      C) keep salah

      1. WVA
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        A

      2. n-doggg
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        B or C

    6. WVA
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Price rises/falls are complete crap this season.

      1. william prunier
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Imagine no fpl statistics

        1. WVA
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          I dont think its been right once this season

          1. TorresMagic™
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            It's been more right than wrong.

            1. WVA
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              What a loads of rubbish. Last season it was bang on, this season it is wrong nearly every night with several players.

              1. TorresMagic™
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 16 Years
                7 years, 11 months ago

                *removes bookmark*

    7. aleksios
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      a) Auba to Kane for free
      b) a+ Mustafi to Smalling for a hit.

      Thanks.

      1. NestorC
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        A

    8. NestorC
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      What to do?

      A) Salah to Sanchez
      B) Auba and Mahrez to Vardy and Sanchez

      Cheers

      1. UshFPL
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Wait for news on Salah's fitness

    9. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      What are chances of Mustafi getting rested tomorrow so can get Smalling points off bench?

      1. william prunier
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        40%

      2. n-doggg
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        15%

      3. mrwinner
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        36% max

      4. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        50%

      5. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        32.57%

      6. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Mustafi goal and CS incoming then......

      7. WE GO FOR IT
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        7.89123456%

    10. UshFPL
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Are any of these moves worth doing?

      1. Lukaku and Willian -> Kane and Lingard (-4)
      2. Lukaku and Alonso -> Kane and Azpi (-4)
      3. Auba and Alonso -> Kane and Christensen (-4)

      1. UshFPL
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Or no. 4:
        Lukaku a d Son->Kane and Lingard (-4)

      2. n-doggg
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Maybe C

        Not sure why you are considering getting rid of Lukaku when you have Aubameyang still

    11. Waynoo
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      did lukaku have many chances today?

      1. UshFPL
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        No

      2. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Barely saw the ball.

      3. Dr Dream
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        No. He was very average.

      4. MTPockets
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Don't recall him having a shot.

        • n-doggg
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          He played a lot on the right wing...

        • WE GO FOR IT
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          No. But he will be completely different next week!

      5. Dr Dream
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        The odd time that Pogba is allowed his time in the box this season, or playing much higher, he has been fabulous. He did it quite a lot in his first few games and just once or twice since...and out of need rather than choice.

        I'd stick my neck out and say that if he played high up the pitch week in and week out he'd be a 20+ goal machine per season.

        Being as he's actually a bit average as a CDM (at best) do we think Mourinho will learn the lesson over Pogba or remain a pig headed buffoon about it?

        1. Respect My Authoritah
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Doubt much will change for the rest of this season. Perhaps next season if he gets in someone alongside Matic he trusts, then Pogba will get that freedom

          1. Dr Dream
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            I really like Pogba. I bet he's a shocker to play against as a defender. Unplayable at times.

            1. Dr Dream
              • 13 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              ...should add...When he plays up front....He's a bit unpredictable at CDM with nowhere near enough discipline....which can be a good thing up front...

            2. Respect My Authoritah
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Yeah, Bellamy made a similar point after the game

              1. Dr Dream
                • 13 Years
                7 years, 11 months ago

                Did he?...he's right...

        2. Nascimento
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          For me, he should get player of the season. Probably won't get it as it tends to go to a player from the title winning side and we probably won't catch City now but still.

        3. WE GO FOR IT
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          He's brilliant when given freedom. I don't know about 20+ goals, but surely will have around 20+ G+A.

      6. Tcheco
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        When you take a hit, do the points get deducted at the end of the GW?

        1. Tiki-Taka
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          they're deducted after the first point recalculation (e.g. for this GW it'd be right now as tabled get recalculated)

        2. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          First points update so done this GW.

      7. WVA
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        People talking about selling Auba before he has even played and scored a hattrick

        1. UshFPL
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Well he has no DGW and Kane is back...

        2. Gnu
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          He can score 5 for me tomorrow but he's still getting transferred out.

        3. Epic Fail
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Scoring a hattrick won't make him score more the following week.

          1. barracuda
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            And how do you know this matey?

            1. Epic Fail
              • 15 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Inside info.

        4. barracuda
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Those shortsighted managers....

        5. Tiki-Taka
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          90% of people got him for GW32/33 with intention of transferring in a DGW striker for 34

        6. Nascimento
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          A Saints fan saying this 😯

          1. barracuda
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            At least some of them are decent and astute 🙂 ...

      8. Ange Ball
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        After not going with my plans to do Lukaku to Vardy for free cap Auba instead I stupidly went Lukaku Jones to Kane Chilwell. My question to you all as don't want to make anymore mistakes chasing 45pts gap. Should I just go for it in my league do Salah Mkhit Auba to Sanchez Pogba Vardy for minus 8?
        I don't have FH that means apart from 2 players I have read blanking in GW35.
        If you have read gotten down this far I wanna say thank you and may the force be with GW34

        1. UshFPL
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          How about Salah and Mkhi->Sanchez and Lingard? Is that affordable?

          1. Ange Ball
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Yes I can do it but means keeping Auba. Why should I keep Auba?

        2. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          How many GW35 players do you have?

          1. Ange Ball
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            3 Burnley Hens from Palace and Monrral. That's if I get rid Salah Mkhit Auba. What should I do.

      9. barracuda
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Is there a better C material than Salah in GW35? (if healthy)

        1. UshFPL
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Salah vs WBA is the ultimate captain pick outside a DGW

        2. Mackans
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Kane

          1. Mackans
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            I thought you wrote GW 34, sorry. Salah is the best!

        3. WE GO FOR IT
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          City attacker maybe. But I know I'm captaining Salah that GW, if he is playing.

        4. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          CL could take over.

          1. barracuda
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            So you will be captaining a City guy if so TM?

            1. TorresMagic™
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 16 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              No Salah, no Pool so City most likely.

        5. MTPockets
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Auba, maybe Aguero.

          • Respect My Authoritah
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Aguero at home v Swansea to potentially win the league

            Decent chance Liverpool rotate in both gw35 and 36

            1. barracuda
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Good shout, could be a decent C pick.. Jesus sucks big time (no form)

        6. Mackans
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Would you bring in Kane now before the price rise or wait?

          1. Epic Fail
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            I'm waiting, but you do what you want.

            1. barracuda
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              This

          2. n-doggg
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Depends what you have in the bank. If you can afford to wait then wait

          3. Tiki-Taka
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            depends if you absolutely need the 0.1 for other moves, if not I would wait

        7. Mahrez The Magician
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Is BB with 9 doublers + 6 singles a loss !?
          ( Karuis - Robertson - Salah - Mustafi - Mkhi - Arnie )

          1. tisza
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Thought mkhi was out for season

          2. SheBangsTheDrums
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            I was just debating this with 12 DGWers but I'd say it is with 9 particularly with rotation risks for at least 3 of those!

        8. Iceball
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          On BB now
          A) Lukaku to Kane for free
          B) Lukaku and Gudmundsson out for a hit
          C) Just fix Gudmundsson for free, trust in Lukaku

        9. the Penman
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          This is your (game-)weekly reminder: rank doesn’t matter until the gameweek is over.

          That said, FFFix says FPL average is 23 and top 10k average is 21, so take heart.

        10. Salah Fingers
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Best mid for £4.7 or less? Swapping gross out to enable Auba to kane, have 2fts

          1. Mackans
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Kenedy!

            1. Salah Fingers
              • 10 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Like the look of Kenedy, no dgw tho

          2. SheBangsTheDrums
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            I went Ibe but got stung today

        11. Mackans
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Who am like me and bought Eriksen for this GW?

          1. Epic Fail
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Are you from the Black Country?

          2. MTPockets
              7 years, 11 months ago

              I isn't.

            • BUZZBOMB ♡
              • 11 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Alli and Son I bought. The Force is weak in this one.

          3. SheBangsTheDrums
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            How does this BB team look for 34? 12 DGWers

            DDG Ryan
            Alonso Lowton Morgan Mustafi Masuaku
            Alli Mahrez Hazard Ibe AKing
            Kane (c) Lukaku Murray

          4. barton fc
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            keep faith in son or sell?

            1. Epic Fail
              • 15 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              I'm not selling anyone who has a DGW.

              1. barton fc
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 11 months ago

                was thinking salah, son, auba to kane, lingard, sanchez

          5. Tosa86
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            My actual team is:

            DDG - Fabianski
            Tarkowski - Davies - Robertson - alonso - Jones
            Salah - Son - Willian - Mahrez - McArthur
            Lukaku - Firmino - Barnes

            Robertson and Salah are out, how many GWs?
            Firmino is in rotation for CL.
            Jones is fit, but 0 minutes in GW32 and GW33.

            So, in this case how i can move?
            Change jones with smalling?
            wait liverpool's players or not?

            i have 2 FT.
            i can replace jones with smalling?
            cut robertson, salah and firmino -> auba,sterling, chilwell (-4)?

            for GW35, if liverpool pass the turn in CL and firmino, robertson and salah are in rotation for CL i'll have only 4 players.