Scout Notes – Liverpool Win Raises Big Issues

A tight and, at times, tempestuous Champions League quarter-final second leg goes Liverpool’s way to force Fantasy managers into some major late-season decisions.

An early strike, a first-half onslaught and an offside decision crying out for VAR came and went at the Etihad Stadium as the Reds survived and then thrived once Mohamed Salah had given them an all-important away goal.

The fit-again Egyptian’s cool finish, after Sadio Mane’s burst into the penalty area, changed everything, with Nicolas Otamendi’s later mistake handing Roberto Firmino the opportunity to secure the visitors a 2-1 win on the night.

The Brazilian striker’s finish was as assured as that of his compatriot Gabriel Jesus, who converted Raheem Sterling’s pass after just two minutes to stir hope of an unlikely comeback among the Man City faithful.

The excellent Leroy Sane then looked to have made it 2-0 just before half-time, only to be incorrectly ruled offside when he bundled the ball home from a rebound off James Milner.

And yet amid all the fire and the fury that followed – City coach Pep Guardiola was sent to the stands for his reaction to the decision – the fact remained that the hosts outshot Liverpool by 20 efforts to five, but overall attempts on target stood at three apiece by the final whistle.

Liverpool soaked up incessant waves of pressure in the first half and then took their chances when City faltered after the break – classic European tactics that will serve them well in the semi-finals.

They’ll discover who they face on Friday, but rotation of their key assets – and specifically their exalted front three – is likely to be a given now.

Salah’s groin issue meant he wasn’t risked for Saturday’s trip to Everton, while Firmino dropped to the bench at Goodison Park. Both flourished at the Etihad once they swapped positions after the break, with the former causing all sorts of problems from a more central role.

If coach Jurgen Klopp is prepared to keep his best players fresh for Europe by leaving them out of a Merseyside derby, then nothing can be taken for granted domestically from here on in.

The semi-final will take place on April 24 and 25 and May 1 and 2.

Liverpool travel to West Brom in Gameweek 35’s reduced schedule before the tie, entertain Stoke City in between the two legs and then travel to Chelsea (in Gameweek 37) on the Sunday after the semi-final is completed.

What to do with the 56.6%-owned Salah is by far the biggest issue – and one that will be examined in greater detail in the latest of our Burning Questions series tomorrow.

With seven days between Saturday’s visit from Bournemouth and the trip to West Brom, a start against the Cherries looks likely as he goes in search of a tenth double-digit tally at Anfield.

Nonetheless, he is already the second most sold player of Gameweek 34. Some 67,000+ Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers have moved him on, while more than 90,000 have done the same with Firmino (43.9%).

Having said that, last night’s result and Salah’s goal has already impacted on the market. According to our own Matz1illa’s NTI Index tool, Salah’s net transfers have shown profit since, wth his ownership now in the recovery position.

Salah’s Net Transfers Last Four Days

Meanwhile, the tireless Mane (10.9%), who started both legs of the quarter-final and the derby at Everton, has seen fewer sales (19,000+), but looks just as vulnerable to rotation ahead of what are otherwise plum fixtures with West Brom and Stoke.

Liverpool’s lack of a Double Gameweek had already lessened the appeal of their key assets, although those managers with the Free Hit chip to play in Gameweek 35’s reduced slate had at least been eyeing up their players for the trip to The Hawthorns.

Last night’s result puts even that strategy in doubt and will surely only hasten sales in the Reds’ main men.

The City conundrum

The opposite may now be true for Man City’s stars.

It’s been a chastening week for Guardiola’s side, involving three straight losses in, arguably, their three biggest matches of the season.

That is sure to have an impact on the confidence and morale in the camp, with a trip to Spurs this weekend hardly the ideal fixture for such attributes to be rebuilt.

A 3-2 loss to Man United denied them the chance to secure the league title, which in turn keeps their players highly motivated, in the short term at least, for a run-in (tot SWA whu HUD & BHA sot) that includes both a fixture in Gameweek 35 and a Double Gameweek 37.

There are a number of factors to consider, however.

Rotation has always been a major issue concerning Guardiola’s team, and some of City’s key men – David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne in particular – looked decidedly jaded as last night’s match wore on.

Indeed, the Belgian is currently the fifth most sold player heading into Gameweek 34, his weekend benching (for the first time this season) no doubt a factor in some of those transfers-out.

A huge match away at Spurs might well be a bridge too far for some players already mentally and physically taxed by the events of the last week.

The question of who features up front is a vexed one as well.

Jesus started and scored, while Sergio Aguero only appeared after 66 minutes as the home side chased the match following Salah’s equaliser.

Doubts over the Argentine’s fitness will be a continuing cause for concern until he manages more pitch-time than the 24 minutes he was given against Liverpool and the 14 in the Manchester derby.

City’s defensive fragility is another problem.

They’ve shipped eight goals in those three high-profile defeats and have kept only three clean sheets in the past 11 Gameweeks.

Fernandinho, who put in an epic shift in front of a back three last night, will be suspended for the next two league matches to further compromise their solidity at the back.

Double Gameweek 37’s home clashes with Huddersfield and Brighton look very tempting on paper, but the league title will be won by then if they can secure two victories over the next three fixtures.

A home match against Swansea City in Gameweek 35 and the trip to West Ham that follows look like excellent opportunities to seal the Premier League deal, as Guardiola confirmed post-match.

“Now it’s time to recover. After Tottenham, we have a long week to Swansea then a long week to West Ham where we can win the two games needed for winning the most important competition.”

If that proves to be the case, there will be doubts over both the make-up of the team and the players’ motivation to finish off what is turning out to be a bittersweet end to an otherwise stellar season.