Metrics
14 April 2018 1647 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In tonight’s article, we present some metrics on the different strategies and picks found among the top 10,0000 managers in Fantasy Premier League ahead of Double Gameweek 34.

As discussed in my midweek piece, the top 10k were expected to own an average of 9.08 double players ahead of Saturday’s deadline once their free transfers were used. Indeed, having looked at the final data, we now find that the average was raised to 9.45 players with two fixtures once transfer hits had been made.

Indeed, the average deducted points for hits is higher than normal, with the average transfer cost standing at -2.28 points, with Double Gameweek assets justifying the extra outlay.

The full distribution of double players number for the top 10k is shown below

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We see that 53% of the top 10k managers achieved a number between 7-10 Double Gameweek players, while around only third of managers got at least 11.

Of course, this number is a big factor when it comes to the choice of the chip activated.

Here are the percentage of chips used among the top 10k managers for Gameweek 34.

ChipPercentage
Wildcard4.36%
Triple Captain18.23%
Free Hit4.34%
Bench Boost34.79%


Following this latest update, the total usage of chips in the top 10k increased as follows.

members

Although 34.8% activated the Bench Boost chip this week, there are still around 48% of managers in the top 10k who have kept it in reserve, while there are more than 52% Triple Captains still intact. In both cases, we are likely to see these played over the Gameweek 37 doubles.

Now let’s put those managers with chips active under more scrutiny.

For the 18.23% who used the Triple Captain, we see that Romelu Lukaku seems to be the most popular choice (8.73%) while Harry Kane comes in second (4.79%). Meanwhile, only 1.8% triple captained Alexis Sanchez as he continues to shape up as a potentially powerful differential.

Triple Captained PlayerPercentage
Romelu Lukaku8.73%
Harry Kane4.79%
Alexis Sánchez1.80%
Jamie Vardy0.85%
Riyad Mahrez0.50%
Eden Hazard0.32%
Paul Pogba0.27%
Mohamed Salah0.20%


Now we shift gears to the most used chip this week, the Bench Boost.

Below is the template team made up of the most selected by those managers with that chip active in the top 10k.

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The average Bench Boost manager has chosen to keep trust in three single fixture players. Mohamed Salah, Andy Robertson and Luka Milivojevic – who certainly justified that faith.

This line-up highlights the ownership of players but doesn’t really tell us the make-up of the typical bench.

To gain more insight on that, I checked the four cheapest players in every Bench Boost squad and assumed these would constitute the bench in a regular Gameweek.

The following table shows the most selected bench players for those with the Bench Boost active.

Bench Player for Bench BoostersPercentage
Matt Lowton33.46%
Wes Morgan22.25%
Ben Chilwell21.82%
Mathew Ryan17.30%
Kevin Long14.83%
Rob Elliot13.88%
James Tarkowski11.10%
Nick Pope9.46%


We see that the most common bench is: Matt Lowton, Wes Morgan, Ben Chilwell and Matthew Ryan, with Kevin Long, James Tarkowski and Nick Pope also proving key targets.

In summary, Bench Boosters are relying heavily on the Burnley and Leicester defences to provide them with the extra points. Unfortunately, the two sides met at Turf Moor today, and neither came out of the fixture with a clean sheet. Both are at home in midweek, however.

Now, we look at another chip activated by just 4.34% of top 10k managers this week, the Free Hit.

With the chip active, we could reasonably expect that managers would load up on Double Gameweek players, selecting the cheapest bench options possible.

Indeed the template selection confirms this, with heavy hitters like Lukaku, Sanchez, Kane, Christian Eriksen and Salah all proving the go-to options.

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Free Hit managers have a strong line-up for Gameweek 34, then, but will likely struggle with the Gameweek 35 blanks to come.

Having covered chip use, let’s go back to the player selection statistics for all the top 10k managers.

One key question we had in mind is what forwards should we own for the Double Gameweek?

Managers had to decide how to combine the likes of Kane, Lukaku and Jamie Vardy or simply opt for all three.

Below I have calculated the combination percentages.

Forwards CombinationPercentage
Kane + Vardy15.49%
Lukaku + Vardy15.01%
Vardy Only15.01%
Kane + Lukaku13.93%
Kane Only11.89%
Lukaku Only11.53%
Kane + Lukaku + Vardy7.49%


Vardy seems to be the common factor in all the most popular selections. There are even more teams with only Vardy of the three, than with Kane and Lukaku or any of them alone.

However, for captaincy selection, Vardy ranks third, with fierce competition between Lukaku and Kane.

members

Another burning question was whether to keep or sell Salah. From the metrics in the top 10k, it looks as though the majority of managers chose to retain the Egyptian after his Champions League heroics.

Salah’s ownership dropped slightly from 81.2% last week to 76.6%, so only 4.6% of the top 10k managers moved him out.

Finally, I’ll leave you with a table of players with the most ownership in the top 10k and their effective ownership this week.

Note that ownership includes managers who benched the player this week, while effective ownership includes only starting players with their captaincy statistics included.

PlayerTop 10k Ownership Top 10k Effective Ownership
Mohamed Salah76.63%82.20%
David de Gea60.76%61.30%
Jamie Vardy53.00%60.23%
Riyad Mahrez51.55%54.64%
Willian49.66%50.51%
Harry Kane48.80%84.17%
Romelu Lukaku47.96%93.40%
Son Heung-min44.63%45.76%
Chris Smalling33.92%33.98%
Matt Lowton33.90%32.49%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang31.77%32.54%
Roberto Firmino31.19%29.03%
Andrew Robertson27.89%23.36%
Ben Davies27.26%26.87%
Luka Milivojevic26.13%19.00%
Nicolás Otamendi25.86%13.40%
Ashley Barnes25.58%25.14%
Marcos Alonso25.25%25.42%
Benjamin Chilwell24.10%23.79%
Pascal Groß22.05%21.49%
Wes Morgan21.74%21.42%
Mathew Ryan20.63%18.48%
Jesse Lingard19.04%19.03%
Nick Pope18.95%16.19%
César Azpilicueta17.79%17.87%
Christian Eriksen17.37%19.84%
Raheem Sterling16.48%13.83%
Robert Elliot15.19%1.32%
James Tarkowski14.91%14.28%
Dele Alli14.17%14.95%
  1. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Last Man Standing Update (76 teams)

    Current safety score = 34
    Top score = 52
    LMS average = 32.76

    7 games + autosubs to go.

    1. Fitzy.
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Thanks TM.

  2. jdp219
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    No FH for 35, but have 2.0itb.

    1) Mahrez > Dilva
    2) Vardy > Auba

    1. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      B

    2. PrettyDick
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      definately A.

      Several reason.

      First off, you'll still have Vardy afterwards who's on great form.
      Second, I realize I'm probably jinxing it now but Arsenal are not to be trusted these days. Resting players means that even though your player might not be rested it affects the performance of the team. And even when they're not rested they've benn playing absolutely awful lately. Don't let the scoresheet fool you.
      Last, you gain over 2m from that, money you could spend else where on the next DGW.

      Good luck

  3. Rik Waller
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    So what's the strategy with the free-hit?

    Hope for a Liverpool leaked line-up then throw together a squad before deadline?
    If no leaked line-up - Guess and hope?

    1. Theres mo limit
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      guess and hope is how we attack every gameweek

      1. Rik Waller
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Mo mo, mo mo mo mo, mo mo mo mo, mo mo...

        ...there's Mo Limit!

    2. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Pick 11 leaked dippers,obvs

    3. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Leaked Pool team and a solid update on Aguero from Pep for a start.

      1. Rik Waller
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Yeh, fully expect Pep to be vague on that one

        1. PrettyDick
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          yeah. But I still think it's worth taking a punt on one of their strikers (after we've tried to interpret his vague announcements). If he doesn't play, he doesn't play. You can still be sure to have somebody good coming off your bench.

          There's of course always a risk with picking one and he comes on in the last 10-15 minutes, but that's a risk I'm willing to take for that one game week. I think at least

  4. Lingardium Leviosa.
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Just to confirm. We all activating FH now right?

    1. Theres mo limit
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      why do you need the assurance of random internet people. Just do it

  5. Cok3y5murf
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    OR updated

  6. Gruu
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Better to activate FH now or wait until saturday morning?
    Cheers

  7. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Up to 11.5 k or.
    Season's high. A lukaku haul tomorrow would be welcome.

  8. Lovren an elevator
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Any early scout picks for Wolves?
    Jota looks like he could step up

    1. Dannyb
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Jota for me.

      1. Defcons are for Kinnear
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I'll jot him down

  9. Optic1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Breached top 10k finally. Hold the line.

  10. Davido989
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Another chip used, another red arrow.

  11. TheTinman
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    33pts 20 to play. Any good?

    1. tm370
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I think you know that that is good!

  12. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Another big red arrow and dropped out of the top 20k - my poor run continues with red arrows in 9 of the last 11 game weeks since I hit 1.6k OR. Guess this GW is far from over though!

  13. Theres mo limit
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    i just had a thought and i don't think its possible to have a more pathetic one.

    If you're intending to free hit why not make 10000 transfers just to see it on screen then hit fh button

    i really need to get laid

    1. PrettyDick
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Mate, that applies to everybody here. If people are getting laid, they're not spending time on a fantasy forum

  14. Theres mo limit
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    up to 75k nice

  15. UnitedFan
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    When in the week have the leaked Pool lineups usually been coming out?

    1. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Friday evening right up until after the deadline, no set time.

      1. UnitedFan
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers.

  16. Viper
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    A brief rise to 3.5k before Lukaku sends me into oblivion

  17. WALOR
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I have 1 FT.

    If I drop Willian for Zaha, THEN deploy the FH chip, will I still have Willian after next deadline?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      yes

    2. the snazzy viking
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      yes

      1. WALOR
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers fellas

  18. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Correctly predicted Salah's score.

    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/04/13/the-community-round-up-241/?hc_page=9#hc_comment_17996756

    #AlwaysListenToTheVirg

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      If only the minutes were correct.

      1. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        🙁

        Nearly got away with it!

    2. the snazzy viking
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      but not his minutes

  19. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I have FH and TC. Rival has WC and BB.

    Guess is he will WC nxt wk to cover the blank gw. Gonna be impossible to catch him id say? 60 ahead..

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Any more info?

    2. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Of course it's not impossible...quite feasible to catch 50 in a couple of normal weeks...let alone nailing your TC

  20. Brosstan
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    21 points from 11 including captain. Why do we even bother planning in this game?

    1. the snazzy viking
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I know right? all that actual work that I could've done

      1. the snazzy viking
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        glad there's just under one month left of the season in all honesty

    2. PrettyDick
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      my only consolation is I still have my captain but other than that it's been the worst game week thus far I think haha.

      Almost fell from 337 to out of the top 1k on the first day of the double game week.. gonna watch with extra anxiety tomorrow.

  21. Leaf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Is anyone watching the commonwealth marathon
    Shocking scenes , the Scots guy in from collapse of exhaustion, looking very very ill

    Crowd are just staring taking pics , no medical help at all
    Crowd even still clapping and waving flags the idiots

  22. Brosstan
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Joke. Do everything right regarding planning, 14 dgw players, drop 10k rank from 16k to 26k. Whats the fking point...

    1. willl
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Didn't plan everything right if you dropped in rank...

      1. willl
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        also, there is a lot of games to go 🙂

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Take a season off?

    3. FFHype
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      What went wrong? Son/Mahrez let you down too?

  23. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    a) What's your current rank?
    b) How many players left and who is your captain?
    c) What chips do you have left?
    d) What overall rank would you be happy to finish the season?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      24K, 17 hopefully/Kane, FH/TC, 10K

      1. PrettyDick
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        A) 968 (337 when the day started..)
        b) 13 and Lukaku (TC) (17 if he counts three times then..)
        c) BB and Free hit
        D) would say top 100 before today but now I guess top 1000 is good enough.

        E) How many point hits have you taken thus far? (Personally, - 164 points... I know, I know but it's my first season playing seriously past game week 10 and I've made a lot of stupid mistakes but hopefully I'll learn from them for next year. Hopefully.)

        1. waldo666
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          E) Took my first one this week

          1. PrettyDick
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            almost equally wow as my massive - 164 @ your first this week, very well disciplined! kudos

            1. waldo666
              • 15 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Cheers mate and well done on your rank, a couple of Lukaku hauls this GW and that top 100 could still be achievable.

              1. PrettyDick
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 11 months ago

                haha yeah just imagine where our combined team would be now. Me choosing players and you being responsible of planning and not giving me access to do changes when I'm bored and can't sleep..

                Fingers' crossed mate.. probably the first time ever I'm hoping for a united player to score. This is what FPL does to us haha

        2. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Wow @ -164

          -52 for me I think.

          1. PrettyDick
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            yeah, I know .. and before this GW started I was 119 points off of 1st place haha. I assume I am, by far, the one in the top1K (for now at least) that has the most point hits. But you live and you learn.. hopefully

        3. TallestJohn
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Are any of those hits included in the 'stupid mistakes' or have they helped you get to that rank? I've taken -32.

          1. PrettyDick
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            No, obviously a fair few of them have fallen out well, other wise I'd probably be closer to the 1m mark than the 1k one haha. However, there is no way one can justify that many point hits. Or even half ot that.

            It's my first season playing seriously (spending time on the team, checking stats etc) and mainly I've just gotten in the players I like for a certain game week (and if they have good fixtures after wards). I've also discovered price rises (and falls) this season, so that's been something I've paid a stupid amount of time and transfers on.

            On the flip side I have probably have the highest squad value as well (as point hits) among the top 1k haha

            - 32 sounds reasonable and responsible in my ears. There are 1. injuries/suspension to adjust to and 2. certain situations/circumstances (DGW/BGW) that grant point hits.

            I also feel that more people than me will have a better understanding of the usage of all the chips next season (unless they introduce new ones ofc..) Although that (chip usage) is the only thing I've actually been able to be patient with throughout the season, and stuck to the plan.

        4. Pranav Santhosh
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Only 32 points worth of hits for me but ranked at 28k

          1. PrettyDick
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            nice! Sounds like you're doing it right 🙂

            1. Pranav Santhosh
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              Thanks but I would rather be in your position haha. Good luck for rest of season hopefully you can still push for a top 100 spot

    2. waldo666
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      a) 9,630
      b) 17, Lukaku
      c) FH/TC
      b) sub 5k

    3. raihak
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      3045, 16 / Lukaku, FH/TC, 1K

    4. STEP rOVERS
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      30k,17/Sanchez. TC /FH. 10k

    5. Get up ya bum
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      19k
      13 with captain Harry counted twice
      Zilch zip Nada
      10k

      1. Positive vibes
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        113k, 15 with Lukaku C, FH and TC, hope to reach 75k

    6. MTPockets
        7 years, 11 months ago

        616k
        18, Lukaku
        FH/TC
        Whatever

      • Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        a) 130k
        b) 19 inc. Lukaku 2x2
        c) FH35 TC37
        d) 50k, not feeling confident of even that...

      • TallestJohn
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        a) 74k
        b) 16, (17 if Kane included twice)
        c) FH (activated for GW35), TC
        d) Above my dad who is currently 27k with only BB remaining. Top 10k would be nice but I think top 30k would do it.

      • ILOVEBAPS
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        250k, 15 maybe, Lukaku, FH & TC. 100k.

      • the snazzy viking
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        a) stop
        b) 18, Lu(K)aku
        c) TC and FH - playing FH this week
        d) don't care about OR, if I win my ML I'll consider it a good season

        ok fine 50k

      • Pranav Santhosh
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        28k
        14 players left Kane C
        Wildcard and bench boost
        Happy where I'm at now considering first proper season but aiming for top 10k as that seems to be the rank everyone is aiming for

      • Yellin' in my Ear
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        A) 21k
        B) 11/Kane
        C) TC/FH
        D) 10k for a fourth year running
        E) -40

        1. Yellin' in my Ear
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          *B) 15 (16 counting Kane twice)

    7. Dannyb
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      This has hands down been the hardest and most difficult to navigate fpl season for me tbh.

      1. Defcons are for Kinnear
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        The FFS template hasn't paid off. In previous years a dullard approach would get you 50k but not this year

    8. TallestJohn
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Seen a few decent discussions on how much Bench Boost is worth today.

      If I'd started my highest scoring players and benched the lowest scorers every week this season (including one goalkeeper and a maximum of two defenders for a valid formation) the most that Bench Boost could've earned me is 10 points (GW18, GW30).

      The most I've actually benched this season is only 16 (GW1, GW6, GW11).

      The only time I've benched a player who scored double digits is Fabianski's 11 (GW5).

      Maybe not hugely surprising as I knew I'd wait until a DGW to set up for the chip but I always try to have a good bench and avoid non-playing 4-4.5m options. Elliot the only one I kept long-term while he was out of favour.

      1. MTPockets
          7 years, 11 months ago

          My highest bench has been 15. Currently on 4 * 2 which is pretty much as expected.
          Think next season I'll try a non dgw to avoid the whole must-have-15ish thing, and impact on plans.

          1. TallestJohn
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            I think the first season it came in I just played BB in a SGW where my players had good fixtures. Can't have been amazing as I don't remember what I scored. Think I played it in a DGW last season but can't remember that either.

            I think things could've been a bit different if the GW31 blanks had fallen into GW34.

            1. MTPockets
                7 years, 11 months ago

                Yeah that and my 32wc was probably a mistake in retrospect, as was selling Salah to afford Kane.

                1. TallestJohn
                  • 9 Years
                  7 years, 11 months ago

                  Jury's still out on my 32WC. Glad I did it because I wanted rid of the leftovers, they've had a decent game here and there but I always wanted more DGW players.

                  I think if I'd just gone Vardy instead of Firmino and had money for Eriksen instead of Son I'd have been really happy with it.

                  Made far bigger mistakes with captaincy, the wrong City players and Kanexit.

        • Defcons are for Kinnear
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Vardy looks like a 45 year old war veteran in the caption

        • ragnar
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          If I do the FH now, can I keep doing transfer later then like when I am on a WC?
          Cheers guys

          1. Defcons are for Kinnear
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Yes

        • ragnar
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Thanks! How long to price changes? 🙂

          1. Dannyb
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Bout 20 mins

        • FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          All the cool kids free hitted last gameweek 😎

          1. TorresMagic™
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            The cool adults are this week. 😉

            1. FPL Virgin
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 11 months ago

              🙂

        • camarozz
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          5 goal TC captain Kane gw 37 is my only hope now. 😉

          1. Legomané
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            8 goals minimum is what I'm expecting

          2. ILOVEBAPS
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            You're not alone. The way this season has been though I forsee a massive build up and then let down. Sorry to be a bummer