Luck can take on many guises in Fantasy Football.
It’s not all about penalty saves or even falsely accredited goals. The fortune we’re dealt can often be missed because the mechanics and thought processes involved can be complex.
My recent decision to sign Henrikh Mkhitaryan is one such example.
Brought in on the Gameweek 32 Wildcard, he was duly benched by Arsene Wenger to score a single point, only to pick up an injury in Europe before his next outing.
That was certainly not in the plan and, at the time, I was forced to write the chain of events off as a roll of the dice that came up short.
But looking back, the decision to opt for Mkhitaryan may prove to be another fortunate twist in my run-in.
The Armenian’s injury ahead of Gameweek 33 forced my hand.
While other managers had the freedom to deliberate and address Mohamed Salah’s injury scare, I had little option but to shift Mkhitaryan before a price drop.
It meant I was distracted and ensured I didn’t have time to weigh up Salah’s likely absence at Goodison Park.
With a hit already booked in for Harry Kane, I couldn’t afford another. So Salah had to stay and my first sub, who came in to score five points, had to cover his absence.
This wasn’t masterful strategic thinking. This was a series of events that combined to make up my mind before I had time to make a mistake.
And, in hindsight, I believe selling Salah last weekend would have been a mistake.
Liverpool’s Champions League draw may just have changed the landscape and, combined with Jurgen Klopp’s promise to go “full throttle”, suddenly our preconceptions of Salah’s starts and minutes may need to be revised.
Salah will now play a first leg with Roma at Anfield on the Tuesday, just three days after a trip to West Brom but four days before the Gameweek 36 meeting with Stoke.
Four days later, he will travel back to Rome to face his former club in the second leg.
In both cases, the four days could prove crucial. Klopp has almost said as much.
His appraisal of the same four-day gap between Tuesday’s victory at Manchester City and today’s game with Bournemouth looks significant.
“We’ve had a longer part of the week to prepare. Makes a big difference. We have enough time for a completely normal line-up.”
If the four-days makes a “big difference” now, it could again before Gameweek 36, and that means that Salah suddenly looks likely to face Stoke.
It may have been different had Liverpool been the second ball out and that, quite literally, is the luck of the draw.
This appears to have fallen in my lap. Not through my own research and planning, but simply because I opted to sign a completely different player who conspired to pick up an injury.
Were it not for Henrikh’s own misfortune, I’d be feeling very uncomfortable come this evening’s kick-off and wringing my hands at the prospect of Salah tearing up Gameweek 36.
No doubt, at that stage, I’ll still captain Kane for his two points versus Watford, but I can’t always rely on luck to save me from myself.
