Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip Used Points Points for all other managers Points for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost 94.9 77.8 74.7
Triple Captain 83.3 84.5 74.7
Free Hit 80.2 84.4 74.4
Wildcard 83.2 84.3 74.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

3,973 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Sánchez
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Repost ...

    Zaha or Welbeck?

    (352 vs 343)

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Z

    2. Manani
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Zaha

    3. L S P
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Zaha

    4. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Zaha, who are you captaining btw?

      1. Sánchez
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Having a pop at kdb

  2. manutd99
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Crouch likely to play?

    1. GreatCarragherReef
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      He should get mimutes, doubt he starts

  3. The HurriKane
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    So best team with FH possible?

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Will tell you on Monday 😉

      1. The HurriKane
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Nice one, thanks for the help! 😀

        1. Bad Kompany
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Anytime ;). Honestly don’t know either and am scrambling to come up with something

    2. Manani
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      basically scout picks, but maybe upgrade Klavan to VVD

      1. The HurriKane
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I see, thanks mate!

    3. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      3 Liverpool
      3 City
      5 others

      1. The HurriKane
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Ok, nice. Thanks mate!

  4. Bad Kompany
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Which one?
    A. Mane PVA Arnie/Zaha
    B. Zaha Arnie VVD

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      B

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers

    2. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      A but with Moreno instead of PVA

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Would be too much Pool

        1. Zilla
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          All are tripling on Pool, not really a risk

          1. Bad Kompany
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            Would be over 3

            1. T0RR3S
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 3 months ago

              Salah and Mane should be in your team and 3rd spot for defensive asset GK/DEF

              1. T0RR3S
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                I only chose A because Zaha is a must and I think Arnie can get more time than Mane
                but For me its Zaha > Mane > Arnie

                1. Bad Kompany
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Cheers

              2. Bad Kompany
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Have the gk and Salah already so will only be able to get either Mane or VVD. Which one do you prefer?

                1. T0RR3S
                  • 10 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Doubling up on the defensive for an attacking team such as Liverpool isn't wise .. so It's Mane for me.

  5. Dazzler365
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Butland
    Baines, Bellerin, Klavan
    Salah, sterling, de bruyne, Zaha, Mane*
    Lacazette, jesus
    OR
    Butland
    Baines, Bellerin, Klavan
    Salah, sterling, de bruyne, zaha
    Lacazette, jesus, Auba*

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Ofc the first line-up

      1. Dazzler365
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers

  6. manutd99
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Worth spending the extra on Zaha over Mili?

    1. Scheister
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I think so

    2. Totti
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      yes

    3. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I think so, yes.
      *Watch Mili get 3 pens*

  7. Scheister
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Good to go on free hit?
    Thanks and good luck!

    Pickford
    Baines Klavan PVA
    Salah(c) Mane Sterling Sane Zaha
    Jesus Laca

    Robles, Barnes Long Zeegelaar

  8. Totti
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    who do u rather guys?

    A) mane
    B) firmino

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Bobby will be rested

    2. Scheister
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      A

    3. dmcqt
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I prefer B).
      I think if Mane plays he'll get maybe 60-70 mins. There's a chance of rotation with all Liverpool players at the moment. I suspect Salah wants the golden boot and Firmino works well with him, so I'm going with Firmino in my free-hit team, as well as Salah and Robertson. It's worth having some decent bench backup this week, in case of rotation. Burnley defenders are a good bench option.

      1. Samwise the Brave
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Should someone tell him the pool team

        1. dmcqt
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          yes! Though someone was kind on the next page. Thanks.

  9. Ravager
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    To partner Sterling + Jesus:

    A. Otamendi
    B. Silva

    1. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Does budget allow Walker?

      1. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Could if I do Milner > Klavan, yes

    2. dmcqt
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Otamendi. Silva will probably play for the homecoming victory game, but there's a chance of rotation so he can spend time with family. I think Otamendi is extremely likely to play.

  10. Kevtheotter
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Ramsey over Zaha sound like a good differential?

    Same price

    1. lugs
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      if he plays , definitely

    2. dmcqt
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I think Zaha is already a differential (only owned by 7.6%) and he's scored three goals and two assists in his last five since coming back from injury. Plus he's playing OOP as a striker and has a lot to prove after his injury, including perhaps catching the eye of big name clubs. Zaha is a certainty in my free-hit team.

      Ramsey will probably start, but if Arsenal get ahead early, then key players might be taken off at half-time. They'll also be playing with a little bit of caution to avoid injury before the Europa league.

  11. mcrayeps
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Besides sterling and jesus, which city mid do you prefer in order?

    1) Sane
    2) KDB
    3) D Silva
    4) B Silva
    5) Gundogan

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      12354

    2. Leaf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      2
      1
      5
      3
      4

    3. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      25134

  12. Licious Lizard (delete acc)
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Seems almost nobody is going for Arnie...
    Personally I prefer him to Shaq or Ramsey, But am I missing something? My thinking is that people are skewed because they are having Arsenal defense ?

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      West Ham are pretty awful and Arsenal good at home?

      Feel Ramsey and Zaha better options

    2. GreatCarragherReef
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Good option but Zaha looks a better option for that price

    3. Leaf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Lots of decent options at that price, Arnie , Zaha, Shaqiri, Ramsey even Bolasie can make a case for any of them

    4. lugs
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      i have him but i'm not expecting much from him this week though , i think Arsenal will be fired up after the Wenger news and might tear West Ham apart

  13. GreatCarragherReef
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Which looks better?

    A) KDB, Moreno, PVA,Butland

    B) Sane, Milner, Bellerin, Hennessey

    Cheers

    1. jonasloc
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      a

  14. Ziyech on the Bench
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Duffy to Jagielka for a hit?

    Will keep until end of season.

  15. Kabayan
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Which one better? On FH
    A. Moreno + Ozil + Tosun
    B. Moreno + Shakiri + Laca
    C. Milner + Shakiri + Tosun
    Thanks

    1. jonasloc
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      b

    2. GreatCarragherReef
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      B by a mile

  16. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    What is the team news from anfield express?

    1. jonasloc
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Karius, Gomez, Van Dijk, Klavan, Moreno, Henderson, Milner, Wijnaldum, Salah, Mane, Ings.

  17. Kevtheotter
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    A) Milner Tomkins Pickford

    B) Klavan Baines Butland

    Cheers

    1. Old Wulfrunian
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      b

  18. jonasloc
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Who will score more?
    a) Auba
    b) Laca
    c) Shaqiri
    d) Zaha
    e) Mané

    1. Leaf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      If someone does know I’d like to know this too

    2. GreatCarragherReef
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Considering reduced minutes, any of them. Would captain e of those

    3. jonasloc
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Who would you pick?

      1. Leaf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        It really wouldn’t surprise me if Shaqiri out scored all of them

    4. Kevtheotter
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      B>E>D>A>C

  19. Scratch
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Not too sure about Klavan or Lacazette but it looks decent

    Pickford (Henn)
    Baines, Klavan, Monreal
    KDB, Sterling, Salah, Mane, Zaha
    Jesus, Lacazette

    Wood / Lowton / Long / £0.4m

  20. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Anyone I'm missing from the below - players who are likely to start in the Europa League SF and who were rested against Newcastle?

    Bellerin, Koscielny, Ozil, Ramsey, Welbeck and Ospina

    i.e. we could see something like this based on Wenger's comments?

    Auba/Laca
    Welbeck - Ozil - Nelson/Iwobi
    Xhaka - Ramsey/Elneny
    Kola - Kosc - Chambers/Holding - Bellerin
    Cech/Ospina

    Any thoughts as I don't know Arsenal that well..? So it feels like the 'safer' picks are Ozil, Ramsey and Bellerin to me. And Mustafi maybe most at risk as hasn't been rested with Laca 50/50?

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I would say Laca almost certainly starting

      1. *Reformed-Character*
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Nowhere even close to certain

        1. Kevtheotter
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Judging be Wengers comments on not starting Auba and saying that he is resting no players ahead of Thursday.

          That this game is preparation for Thursday.

          Yeah nowhere even close...

    2. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Wenger on Ramsey

      "He has not participated in full training but he’s practicing in non-contact, so he will be available for Sunday."

      Is he fit? If he is, I think he definitely starts. But I'm not sure he is.

      1. Sun Jihai
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        You never know with Ramsey! If he's fit, he's a great option - scored 20 points not too long ago!

  21. RoysCallerAnne
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    FFS Zaha wink-fest.

    Shouldn't have sold Salah.

    Silly boys

    1. Leaf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Jesus saves tomorrow

  22. toerag
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Sterling or Jesus for cap???

  23. Bad Kompany
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Best City mid other than KDB? Like Sterling and Sane but not sure if they are nailed. Silva also could be away at any time so I’m on Gundogan at the moment

    1. Phil's Stamps
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      sterling sterling sterling. maybe sane if you're chasing

  24. Nigawan
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Play van Aanholt or Baines?

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I'm going PVA. Starts are far better

      1. Kevtheotter
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Stats*

  25. Phil's Stamps
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Just woke up. Has AE confirmed Berba's team news? Firm still on the bench, Salah starting?

    1. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Yes

  26. Ziyech on the Bench
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Jagielka a good punt for rest of season?

    He scored 3 in the run in last year

  27. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Feedback on my FH team please:

    Cech
    Bellerin-Coleman-Klavan
    Silva-Sterling-Salah-Mane-Zaha
    Laca-Jesus

    Long in bench

  28. UptheBlues
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Thoughts on the team? Pretty well the same as most others on here.

    Butland
    Kompany Baines Moreno
    Salah Sterling Mane Zaha
    Jesus Lacazette Wood

    (Nordfelt, Shaqiri, Dummett, Long)

    0.6 itb, Don't really want Shaqiri in there and would mind a punt on Ozil but don't know how to afford it

  29. T C
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Willian to Zaha for -4? Worth it? Y/N

    Will only be 1 player short this GW if I do.

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Yes

    2. dmcqt
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I'd do it. Zaha could easily score a couple this week and Willian isn't going to score anything. Zaha is a decent shout for the rest of the season too.

  30. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Punt on danny ings anyone?

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Not really for my (3-5-2) but if you're going to 3-4-3 then he's the 3rd guy

    2. dmcqt
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Wait until line-up rumours before the game. It's hard to tell who of Sane, Salah, Firmino, Solanke, Ings, or others might be starting. I suspect Firmino might start over Ings, if only to help Salah get further ahead of Kane.

      1. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Line up rumours already out

        Karius, Gomez, Van Dijk, Klavan, Moreno, Henderson, Milner, Wijnaldum, Salah, Mane, Ings.
        4:18 AM · Apr 21, 2018

        1. dmcqt
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Ahhh ... thanks for the update. Is that from the Anfield Express?