Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. jia you
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Is there a good chance that Auba doesn't start folks?
    Changing armband to Jesus just in case!

    1. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wenger hinted that he might not start

      1. jia you
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers mate, seems a good enough reason not to risk the captaincy!

    2. Feloh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus better captain pick thaj auba IMO

      1. jia you
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        It was actually pretty close between them in my head anyway so Wenger's comments have def swung it! Cheers, GL!

  2. Karan_G14
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Better option?

    A) Moreno & Ozil
    B) Milner & Ramsey

    Cheers! 🙂

    1. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

      1. Winners900
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

    2. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ramsey will play?

    3. Pirlø's Pen
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  3. Zladan
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Pickford
    Bauer Milner Mustafi
    KDB Salah (c) Sterling Mané Zaha
    Laca Jesus

    Sorted. 10/10.

  4. Mini Mane Mo
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Who to captain? Currently armband on Salah.

    A. Salah
    B. Sterling
    C. Jesus

    1. Karan_G14
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah the safe option. If chasing then City player.

  5. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Just hours to go before the rate my DGW37 WC team posts start popping up ...

  6. Zladan
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Zaha v Ramsey is annoying me right now. Verdict?

    1. Zladan
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ignore. Zaha locked in.

    2. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Zaha

    3. Ben the Mee
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Zaha all day

      • Werkself
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        ^ What they say.

    4. UnitednationsXI
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Morning dzzz, coUple if quick questions

      1A) zaha + lacazette + Moreno
      1B) ozil + deemed/Tosun + Vvd
      1C) Ramsey + lacazette + Moreno

      2) Arsenal defender of choice? Bellerin or mustafi? Chamber has the most threat but he might not play

      3A) vvd + mustafi + zaha
      3B) Moreno + Tomkins + Mane

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A
        Mustafi
        A

        1. zøphar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Arsenal defense ranking imo-
          Bellerin
          Monreal
          Mustafi

    5. Pirlø's Pen
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A. KDB Moreno

      B. Sane Milner

      Thanks in advance

      1. Karan_G14
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A imo

      2. GOTHAM City F.C.
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

      3. Mini Mane Mo
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

      4. zøphar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Whoever TFF isnt buying

        1. Pirlø's Pen
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A it is - glad that’s cleared up

      5. Werkself
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B.

    6. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mane or Diouf? Really like Diouf for this week... 😮

      1. Buck The Trent
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Mane

    7. Plagued by indecision
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Really need some help here guys. I have no free hit and my rival (only 2points behind) has used his. Anything worth spending 4points on?

      Hennessey (DDG)
      Robertson / Lowton / Tarkowski (Alonso / Morgan)
      Kenedy / Salah (c) / Zaha (Willian / Son)
      Barnes / Jesus (Kane)

    8. Karan_G14
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Most nailed City defender for this week?

      A) Kompany
      B) Otamendi
      C) Walker

      Captain should start?

      Cheers! 🙂

      1. Holmes
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I guess Kompany

      2. Positive vibes
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Kompany imo. Kompany over KDB?

        1. Karan_G14
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Yup I prefer Kompany & Ozil to City mid & some other defender.

      3. JustPark
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Any would do I think.

    9. FPL ElasticO
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      How is this FH team looking??

      Butland
      Baines/ Tomkins/ Bellerin
      Milo/ Zaha/ Salah(c)/ Sterling/ Sane
      Auba/ Jesus

      Bench:: Dubarvka/ Perez/ Long/ Cedric

    10. Feloh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      pick just two who will score more points today

      a. sane
      b. ozil
      c. mane

      1. Karan_G14
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

        1. Winners900
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I got A and B, but its really close.

          Mane is in the best form, but got the toughest game. And I think he will play least minutes

          1. Karan_G14
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            I’ve got Mane & Ozil both.

        2. Feloh
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          b will score more points or the odd one out?

      2. LewanGOALski
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

    11. Scotty B
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Which option looks better?

      A
      Foster
      TAA Lowton Baines
      Walcott Shaqiri KDB Sterling
      Barnes Jesus Aubamayang

      Elliot Alonso Lingard Ake

      B
      Foster
      TAA Lowton Otamendi Baines
      Walcott Shaqiri Sterling
      Barnes Jesus Aubamayang

      Elliot Eriksen Lingard Ake

      C
      Foster
      TAA Lowton Kompany Baines
      Walcott Shaqiri Sterling
      Barnes Jesus Aubamayang

      Elliot Eriksen Alonso Lingard

    12. Valar(Keith)
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) Zaha + Bauer
      B) Shaqiri + PVA..
      Just for this GW.. cheers

      1. WVA
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

      2. LewanGOALski
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

    13. Buck The Trent
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Money no issue, Ozil or Zaha ?

      1. Mini Mane Mo
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Zaha...oop

        1. Winners900
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Ozil

    14. LewanGOALski
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Thoughts on this FH team?

      Butland
      Bellerin - Klavan - Baines
      Salah (c) Mane - Sterling - Sane - Zaha
      Lacazette - G.Jesus (vc)

      Hennessey - Barnes - PvA - Long

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Nice

        1. FC Hakkebøf
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Long red card tho?

          1. FC Hakkebøf
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Nvm

    15. CRO KLOPP
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Bottomed

      Butland
      Bellerin Baines Milner
      Salah Mane Sterling Sane Zaha
      Lacazette Jesus
      Haugard Perez Long Marriapa

      0.0 itb
      GTG? Mane to Ozil?

    16. Paul
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Butland
      Van Dijk Baines Walker
      Salah Mane Sterling Ramsey Zaha
      Jesus Laca

      3.9 Long 3.9 3.9

      FH team as of now... any changes to be made???
      0.6 ITB

    17. Afghanistanislas
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Which would you rather:
      A) Butland and PVA
      B) Hennessey and Bellerin

      1. Root
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

      2. Ben the Mee
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Hennessey and Bellerend

        • Sailboats
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A

        • Werkself
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A

      3. MrMajeika
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A) pva + sane
        B) ota + zaha

        1. Root
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A

      4. Root
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        GW 35 only.

        Aubameyang or Mane?

        1. Feloh
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          mane

      5. Holmes
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Blimey... Mane in every FH team 😮

      6. Positive vibes
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Hi, prefer KDB or Ozil?

        1. Pep's Money Laundry
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          KDB

      7. Gazzpfc
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        1. Cech or butland
        2 sane and ozil or kdb and zahs

      8. Bagheri Arce
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A) Moreno
        B) Klavan

        1) Walker
        2) Kompany

        Cheers folks

        1. WVA
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A1

      9. Sz21
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        On a FH~ Which pair would you choose? Exact same cost.

        1. Pickford + Otamendi.
        2. Ederson + Baines.

        1. Sailboats
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          2

        2. WVA
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          2

        3. Werkself
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          1

      10. WVA
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A. Moreno + Aubamayang
        B. Milner + Lacazette

        1. Pep's Money Laundry
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          B

        2. Werkself
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          B

      11. Feloh
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        ozil or sane?

      12. St. Joseph
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Anyone think about Mane's minutes?
        He rarily finish 90', and surely will be rested around 60'-70' with one eye for Roma.
        Does it makes Salah with double pool's defense a better pick? Considering only 2 teams seems pretty sure of a cleansheet this weekend. (MCI & LIV)

        1. CRO KLOPP
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Mane can do damage in 60 mins easily in my opinion