Metrics

Metrics – The Gameweek 35 Free Hit

With the curtailed Gameweek 35 now underway, our latest examination of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) metrics will focus on the Free Hit versus the no Free Hit scenario among managers currently ranked in the top 10,000.

As anticipated, the vast majority of Free Hits remaining were activated this week, making the overall usage of the chip jump from 67% to 97.9% in the top 10k. This means that this chip is now the closest to being used-up among the current top 10k.

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The only other chip that saw some significant increase in Gameweek 35 was the second Wildcard, which was activated by 4.78% of managers in the top 10k.

But in today’s analysis, we will concentrate purely on the Free Hit scenario.

With one-third of active managers playing that chip prior to the deadline, this group will doubtless appreciate a view of how they fare compared with their peers.

Similarly, the remaining managers without the chip active can also get a view of how their squads measure up.

As we revealed earlier in the week, the non-Free Hit managers had an average of 7.4 players with a Gameweek 35 fixture before the deadline.

But analysis of the latest data reveals that, as expected, these managers used their free transfers and spent points on further trades to reinforce their squads.

This group in the top 10k took an average of -3.63 points in deductions, which is the biggest “hits” figure I’ve recorded this season.

It meant that the non-Free Hit managers in the top 10k were able to field an average of 9.93 players for Gameweek 35, as detailed below.

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Around 61.5% of them could even field a squad of 10 players or more, which might suffice in keeping pace with Free Hit managers.

However, not surprisingly, the squads with the Free Hit in play avoided all points deductions and averaged 14.7 players active for Gameweek 35.

Now let’s look closer and assess the most popular selections in both the Free Hit and non-Free Hit squads.

Below is a squad made up of the most owned players selected by Free Hit managers in the top 10k.

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Meanwhile, the squad for non-Free Hit managers looks somewhat different:

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We see Mohamed Salah (99.06%) is the dominant figure in Free Hit ranks, along with Gabriel Jesus (98.09%) and Raheem Sterling (94.18%).

Indeed, Salah has a similarly high ownership (92.36%) in non-Free Hit teams.

However, with a blank in Gameweek 34, many non-Free Hit managers were forced to spend points to acquire Jesus and Sterling.

As a result, they are found in just 49.08% and 58.2% of squads respectively.

Their output tomorrow against Swansea City already looks to be crucial in the shake-up among the top 10k managers.

There are other disparities that create a cast of players key to the success of the Free Hit.

Players like Leighton Baines, Hector Bellerin, Kevin De Bruyne and Alexandre Lacazette are far from common factors in non-Free Hit squads.

To examine this further, here is a table of the most owned players in Free Hit teams versus their ownership in the non-Free Hit squads among the top 10k.

PlayerFree Hit Ownershipnon Free Hit OwnershipTotal Top 10k Ownership
Mohamed Salah99.06%92.36%94.43%
Gabriel Jesus98.09%49.08%64.23%
Raheem Sterling94.18%58.20%69.32%
Wilfried Zaha82.24%17.53%37.53%
Kevin Long68.78%15.92%32.26%
Alexandre Lacazette63.93%2.11%21.22%
Leighton Baines62.31%3.20%21.47%
Sadio Mané59.75%9.13%24.78%
Jack Butland43.09%1.11%14.09%
Héctor Bellerín33.19%2.84%12.22%
Virgil van Dijk31.87%14.68%19.99%
Kevin De Bruyne30.54%7.61%14.70%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang28.63%51.47%44.41%
Jordan Pickford27.79%6.67%13.20%
Ayoze Pérez24.17%8.39%13.27%
Leroy Sané23.71%16.01%18.39%
Shkodran Mustafi22.29%17.56%19.02%
Xherdan Shaqiri22.00%12.61%15.51%
Luka Milivojevic21.51%41.66%35.43%
James Tomkins19.93%7.63%11.43%
Ragnar Klavan19.61%0.94%6.71%
Matthew Lowton17.63%26.78%23.95%
Wayne Hennessey17.63%12.78%14.28%
Mesut Özil17.18%1.65%6.45%
James Milner16.98%0.23%5.41%
Patrick van Aanholt16.37%2.04%6.47%
Nacho Monreal16.05%9.16%11.29%
Roberto Firmino16.05%43.19%34.80%
Nicolás Otamendi14.36%36.56%29.70%
Marko Arnautovic13.46%15.73%15.03%
Peter Crouch13.33%0.83%4.69%
Nick Pope13.07%24.24%20.79%
Cenk Tosun12.62%4.24%6.83%
Ashley Barnes12.26%22.81%19.55%
David Silva9.90%14.99%13.42%

 

The table highlights that the majority of the selected players in the Free Hit squads show low ownership in non-Free Hit line-ups.

Already today, many non-Free Hit managers will have been hugely relieved at Wilfried Zaha’s blank at Watford given the big disparity in ownership. Some 82.4% of the top 10k Free Hit managers fielded the Eagles winger, compared with 17.5% of the rest of the top 10k.

There are, of course, more opportunities to come with tomorrow’s fixtures.

However, there are also some players who could prove key figures for those without the Free Hit active.

Of these, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (51.47% compared to 28.63%), Nicolás Otamendi (36.56% compared to 14.36%) and David Silva (14.99% compared to 9.9%) look poised to make the most impact.

These major differentials will surely decide how Gameweek 35 affects the current top 10k rankings.

It will be fascinating to carry out a post-mortem on the results and compare these to the impact of the Free Hit chip back in Gameweek 31, when we saw the previous set of reduced fixtures.

Finally, I’ll leave you with a look at each of the Premier league sides most represented in both groups of managers.

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As we can see, every Free Hit manager in the top 10k opted for three Manchester City players. Meanwhile, the non-Free Hit manager has an average of 2.1.

It’s a similar story for Liverpool, with an average of 2.8 players in Free Hit active squads, compared with 2.1 in the rest.

While major Liverpool assets blanked today, it’s essentially Man City and Arsenal (2.1 vs 1.0 players) options that seem likely to decide the gap between the Free Hit and the non-Free Hit managers.

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885 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Pizza in the oven, buzzed for this Khan fight.

    1. ...al - Leave your comments…
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Over now

    2. Point-one short
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      What time's it start?

      1. Jarvish
        • 4 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        Started 10 mins ago, finish 9 minutes 30 seconds ago

    3. Nascimento
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Bloke from I'm a Celebrity?

    4. Fred54
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      I'd rather have watched the 'celebrity' boxing from Sports Relief.

    5. Danno - Emre Canada
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Ha that was fun

  2. NestorC
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Alonso to Vert, good or bad move?

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      good

    2. the snazzy viking
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Otamendi?

      1. NestorC
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        Need to be sure he is nailed and than he is indeed the best pick

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Good next week, but Vertonghen's point returns have not been great either.

      1. ...al - Leave your comments…
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        Spurs not doing a cs of late

        Torn between getting Salah back or Alonso out

        1. NestorC
          • 3 Years
          1 year, 3 months ago

          Not sure I would get Salah now

    4. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      United defender?

      1. NestorC
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        Have DDG, not sure anymore who will play

    5. Ryanu2
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Otamendi or Walker for me

    6. NestorC
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Cheers

  3. KAPTAIN KANE
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Anything you would consider for next week? (Early I know)

    DDG | Hennessey
    Robertson | Cresswell | Lowton | Dummett | Long
    Salah | Sterling | Sane | Groß | Milivojevic
    Kane | Jesus | Vardy

    1FT, 0.8ITB

    Thanks

    1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Probably save depending on Liverpool lineup

      1. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 2 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        Yeah cheers thinking the same, actually struggling to think who I will play/bench

  4. El Fenomeno R9
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Why all pick Vert over Davies?

    1. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Davies more prone to rotation

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Nailedness, but I think people are forgetting Vertonghen has also only scored 2,1,2,2,2 in the last five matches...

  5. Flynny
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Sorry...bottomed....I'm a handful of points ahead of my rival.

    He has kane but no salah.

    Should that have a bearing on who I captain next week?

    Do I just captain salah if confirmed he starts?...or cover him by going with kane?

    1. Ryanu2
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Stick with Salah if he plays

  6. donlobatto
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Wish I had gone for a dead bench so I wouldn’t need to see 16 points from Hennessey and Tomkins sitting there!

    Hoping for big things tomorrow but slightly nervous our Lacazette bandwagon is going to be ended after seeing Auba’s tweet!

    1. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      I think both will start, Auba on the wing

      1. donlobatto
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        Let’s hope

  7. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Really nervous about activating my wildcard. Team 's served me well, and Liverpool and Van Aanholt have a decent fixture next week.

    Foster Adrian
    Alonso Virgil Van Aanholt Mariappa Bauer
    Sarah Mane Sterling Silva WalcottMa
    Barnes Auba Wilson

    1. ...al - Leave your comments…
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Each one of those players would stab you in the back if they had the chance

      don't worry about it

    2. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      That strikeforce needs sorting out though

      1. ...al - Leave your comments…
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        It does. It really, really does.

        1. shirtless
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 year, 3 months ago

          Yes Kane Vardy Ayew I think and at last Adrian goes lol.I

          Loathe to sell Mane though.

    3. shirtless
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Bloody predictive text! Sarah!

      1. Fred54
        • 4 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        Walcott's Ma??

    4. Ryanu2
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Very dodgy forwards

  8. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Bailly to:
    A) Otamendi
    B) Kompany
    C) Walker
    D) Vertonghen
    E) Davies
    F) Smalling

    1. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      F

    2. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      D

    3. Ryanu2
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Walker for rest of season

    4. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      A

  9. Jurgen Flopp
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Alonso to? Already have 3 United players.

    Otamendi
    Walker
    Azpi

    1. Ryanu2
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Walker for me

  10. CloudSky
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Early thoughts fellas?

    DDG
    Smalling Lowton Morgan
    Salah Mahrez Son Willian
    Kane Lukaku Barnes

    Ryan Westwood Kiko Alonso

    1ft, 0itb

    Was planning on saving but between Alonso, Morgan and Kiko probably need to make a defensive transfer. Problem is, Swansea dont have the best fixture this week. So maybe a Soton defender? Other possibility is Lukaku -> Jesus.

    1. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Probably save. Alonso is the obvious one, but for who ultimately depends on your DGW plans. Who you go for will determine your budget for the double.

    2. Ryanu2
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Im sticking with Alonso ftill season end Would go for Jesus

  11. donlobatto
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Give me some early advice for next week and stop me doing something rash to avoid price changes!

    1FT £0.2itb
    DDG, Ryan
    Alonso*, Vert, Mustafi, Morgan, Lowton
    Salah, Eriksen, Son, Willian, Mili
    Lukaku, Vardy, Barnes

    Give me something less drastic than:
    Lukaku, Son, Willian, Alonso > Kane, Sterling, Gros, Otamendi (-12)?!

    1. Ryanu2
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Lukaku Barnes for Jesus Perez

    2. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Alonso to Kompany and Willian to Sterling?

      1. donlobatto
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        And leave Lukaku (i.e don’t trf to Jesus or Kane?

        1. KAPTAIN KANE
          • 2 Years
          1 year, 3 months ago

          I'm blind, completely missed you don't have Kane. Because you already have 3 Spurs it makes it difficult to get him in....

          I think Jesus can wait until 37 for a move. Barnes also has a good 36 fixture.

          In 37 you could do Lukaku to Jesus.

          1. KAPTAIN KANE
            • 2 Years
            1 year, 3 months ago

            I'd also want to keep Son, I genuinely think he's due a haul

  12. JurgenRodgers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Feel for those FH teams returning Gw36 with no Salah or City assests

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      salah might not play and whu are playing for thier lives now ..

    2. Les Bleus
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Only time will tell

  13. ...al - Leave your comments…
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Looking at my team, I can probably afford to keep Alonso. With the recent BB, I've a decent bench with favourable fixtures.

    The problem is I don't want to keep Alonso!

    I'd like to get Salah back asap but need to drop Alonso to save the pennies to afford him, Or just drop Sanchez for him.

    A rival in first, 30 points ahead, has Salah. Is it a bit ballsy going without him in the final run in?

    Surely Spurs/City lads are worth to get in for 37, while keeping the current Chelsea lads I have?

    It really depends on CL with Salah but is going without the differential I need?

    1. Ryanu2
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      I would have Salah but go with your gut feeling

      1. ...al - Leave your comments…
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 3 months ago

        Fear factor wants him back logic says it might be ok without

        It's all too hard to predict atm but it's all down to CL. Even with the CL, there's plenty of rest in between. He'll surely keep fresh anyway

        Jesus, Salah and Sterling in are what I'm aiming for for 37

        just got figure it out!

        1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 year, 3 months ago

          I think Klopp said something recently that implied 4 days after the 2nd leg was more than enough rest for players. I think Mark may have written about it or spoke on the Scoutcast.

          Your problem is exactly what I saw for myself and why I didn’t get the attitude of some on here castigating anybody who didn’t sell Salah when he had a very minor knock... you are always going to want him in your team when fit and if you’ve owned since GW1 that’s a huge amount to take out and then have to pay the full price for to get back. I got that sense of regret from Az on the podcast too. Every week I would be worrying if I didn’t have him in my team and having to watch Liverpool play.

  14. Coaly
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Best defender to bring in for the run in?

    Thinking a city or spurs def

    1. barton fc
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      smalling and jones are cheap and pretty nailed both have a DGW

  15. bitm2007
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    DDG (Ryan)
    ALONSO, Vert, Lowton (Cedric, Morgan)
    Salah, Mahrez, Willian, Gudmundsson (Grob)
    Kane, Vardy, Murray

    0.0 ITB, 1 FT

    A) Alonso to Ottamendi

    B) Play Cedric (BOU) and get two attacking City players for DGW37

    1. barton fc
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      B

    2. Chazz69
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Shift Alonso anyway

  16. seewhyaxe
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    DDG, Ryan

    Alonso* , Dunk, Morgan, Cedric, Lowton

    Salah, Son, Willian, Gross, Mahrez

    Kaku, Barnes, Vardy.

    Who should I get rid asap for gw36? Any suggestions for transfers

    1. barton fc
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      mahrez to sterling, is a transfer im gonna do this week.
      kaku is jesus is another one i'm considering.
      im also thing an alonso downgrade out be a way to get kane in.
      are teams and pretty similar were in the same boat tbh

    2. Chazz69
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Alonso still in yr team is baffling to be honest...........

  17. barton fc
    • 1 Year
    1 year, 3 months ago

    how essential is jesus?
    it's hard for me to get him kane and vardy without doing a lot of hits. don't want to sell vardy coz hes doing well for me.
    A) get city mids and have kane and vardy
    B) take a -12 over the next two and get vardy kane and jesus ( probs gonna do a -8 ant way)
    C) kane's been poor recently go with out
    D) go jesus and kane, sell vardy ( never like selling player in good form especially for players in bad form)
    best option?

    1. barton fc
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 months ago

      feel like i have to have him coz every one else will and if he does well ill be punished.

    2. Chazz69
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      Kane isn't the same since coming from his injury, Jesus is young and clumsy with no consistency.

  18. barton fc
    • 1 Year
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Lloris
    Smalling Lowton Morgan
    Mahrez Salah Willian Son Groß
    Lukaku Vardy
    -------------------------------------------
    Ryan Barnes Long Alonso

    any suggestions?
    currently thinking mahrez to sterling, maybe a -4 for kaku to jesus as well.
    getting kane vardy and jesus seems like too many hits for me and the ways kanes playing im not sure i want to sell vardy for him.
    don't mind having to sell alonso.

    1. Chazz69
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      The Sterling move seems a good choice, and selling Alonso is a must imo

  19. Super Saints
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    G2G for next week? Hate my defence but i cant get a clean sheet whatever, had Walker Bellerin Milner and Butland this week and got jack.

    Ddg
    Ake Schindler Cedric
    Eriksen Alli Sterling Mili
    Lukaku Auba Vardy
    Pickford Grob Morgan Vdh

    1. Chazz69
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 3 months ago

      GTG yep

  20. as33
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 3 months ago

    Hey, i reached 1 place in our mini leage with my FH chip but now i have again my prevous team