Spot the Differential
21 April 2018 2792 comments
James H James H
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The selection of Swansea Cityโ€™s Jordan Ayew delivered for us last weekend, so for Gameweek 35, weโ€™ve backed another cut-price forward to produce against a Merseyside club.

Meanwhile, favourable home fixtures have seen us opt for two German internationals who offer options to those managers looking to break away from the template Free Hit midfields.

Jay Rodriguez

After scoring the winning goal in West Bromwich Albionโ€™s shock 1-0 win over Manchester United last weekend, Jay Rodriguez will be brimming with confidence ahead of the home clash against Liverpool.

The Baggies forward, who is available for just 5.3 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), has scored three goals in his last four appearances.

Impressively, he now leads all forwards in terms of points-per-million value over the season on 19.1.

The underlying statistics over the last four matches underline his recent rash of goals. Rodriguez has produced 11 shots over that spell, with only three other forwards managing more.

A switch to a 4-4-2 formation under interim manager Darren Moore certainly looks to have been a contributing factor. West Brom have created a chance every 7.6 minutes since he took charge – up from every 9.7 minutes over the opening 32 Gameweeks.

The appeal of Rodriguez is also heightened by the prospect of a much-changed Liverpool back four at The Hawthorns.

The 2.1%-owned forward presents an intriguing option for those managers considering a three-man attack and a third striker to sit alongside Gabriel Jesus and an Arsenal option.

Ilkay Gundogan

Although Free Hit managers will doubtless look to Manchester Cityโ€™s premium assets in midfield, Ilkay Gundogan should not be overlooked.

The German international looks an assured starter with Fernandinho still serving out his suspension and, having been revealed as Pep Guardiola’s designated penalty taker; we have been forced to re-asses the Gundogan option.

The newly-crowned champions host Swansea City at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday.

The Swans arrive in Manchester having conceded in six of their seven road trips under Carlos Carvalhal and are ranked second for both the most shots conceded (68) and penalty area attempts allowed (42) over the last four matches.

Available for just 5.4 in FPL, Gundogan looks a bargain acquisition for those managers willing to use a precious City slot on a cut-price option. The statistics certainly suggest that we should look beyond his price tag.

Over the last two matches, only Raheem Sterling has produced more shots (nine to seven) and penalty area attempts (eight to four) than Gundogan in the City ranks.

Mesut Ozil

Arsene Wenger has revealed his intent to name a strong line-up for tomorrowโ€™s home clash against West Ham United in preparation for their Europa League semi-final with Atletico Madrid.

That should mean a recall for Mesut Ozil in midfield and perhaps as the No 10.

The playmaker was rested in the Gunnersโ€™ last match against Newcastle United and will be in need of a run-out against the Hammers.

While Ozil has only produced four goals and nine assists, he remains the hub of creativity for the Gunners. He has created 84 chances, more than double that of any team-mate.

Indeed, his average of a chance created every 26 minutes is tied with Chelseaโ€™s Cesc Fabregas as the top-ranked rate among regular starters in midfield.

Ozil’s scheming can translate into attacking points against a West Ham side that have struggled badly on their travels.

No team has conceded more goals on the road than West Ham (38), while they have also given up the most shots from inside the penalty area, with 186.

That form has not improved in recent outings.

Taking the last four away matches as a sample, only Stoke City have conceded more shots and on target efforts than David Moyes’ backline. While the Hammers rearguard has also allowed 15 big chances in that period, more than any other side.

Although Ozil has struggled to live up to his 9.3 in FPL, he now presents a tempting one-week differential for managers with the Free Hit chip active.

With uncertainty surrounding the starts and minutes of strikers Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette, the 2.6% owned Ozil may just offer a more secure method of covering Arsenal’s attacking prospects.

The Gunners will surely be given opportunities by the visiting defence, and they will surely be keen to produce a performance in reaction to Wenger’s announced departure in the summer.

  1. Stats Don\'t Lie
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Jesus(c) the saviour of my season?

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Nope

    2. drughi
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Hope so

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Yes he will goal very hard

    4. Chelsea Rangers Loyal
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I am hoping for exactly the same. Join me behind the sofa for the first game!

    5. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      He’ll nail it

      1. Stats Don\'t Lie
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Nothing else crossed my mind

    6. RoryzonderR
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Yes!0

    7. yakirh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Hopefully

  2. Mini Mane Mo
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks BF and AE!

    1. Tommyg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      This

      1. Tommyg
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Or are they the same people??

        1. Tommyg
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          #justiceforBF

    2. g40steve
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Cracking information, correct as always

    3. The Darkest Knight
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Absolutely... otherwise I have gone with Firmino and Robertson with poor bench... and that will ruin my Free hit chip completely...

  3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Is today the day VVD finally scores his hattrick... header from corner, DFK, and long range piledriver from play.

    1. JJO
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      no its the day where he gets 2 points

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        He has been CS’ing for fun recently 5 in last 8 FPL games I think, although very weighted to home games.

    2. Fred54
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      No way Liverpool are keeping a CS today.

  4. Holmes
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Hegazi to keep Salah in pocket! #Brotherhood ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Imagine he injured him and Salah missed he World Cup... Hegazi would never be able to go back to Egypt!

      1. Ragabolly
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        ๐Ÿ˜€
        But don’t even go there, such a scary thought

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          It would be terrible for everyone in football, but it’s Sod’s law enough to happen

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Very possible WBA kick Salah off the pitch

    3. Mini Mane Mo
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Hegazi will back off Salah if he wants to go back to Egypt

  5. Sánchez
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Gone all out to catch my rival

    Sold Salah last minute

    Pickford
    Coleman Milner Baines
    Sterling KDB(c) Zaha Ozil
    Lacazette Ings Jesus

    Hennessy Milli Moreno Long

    1. KenyaDigIt
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Some big gambles there - good luck!!!

      1. Sánchez
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Have to try. Like William Wallace says in Braveheart

        "You know what happens if we don't try? ... Nothing"

        1. tokara
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          nice....same here chasing but i bought Mo lol

    2. My Name Is Pepu
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      KDB's FPL stats without Fernandinho have been mediocre. He drops deep to allow Gundogan and Silva to bomb forward.

      Good luck anyway.

      1. Sánchez
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Locked in now so hoping for a City 7-1

      2. Mark
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 18 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        That's true enough, though Swansea will likely be so deep and surrender the ball. Set-pieces were my worry too. That and the fact that Mane will likely only get 60 mins swayed it.

        1. Sánchez
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          You captain KDB?

    3. Patch
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Wow you really betting against Newcastle...brave soul

      1. Sánchez
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        ๐Ÿ˜€ triple up fails big but pays off high

    4. Firminooooo
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Hope Ings scores some points for us.

  6. how now brown cow
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Berbs is innocent.

    1. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      No more though. Not worth the headache.

      1. Je suis le chat
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Chapeau Berb .

      2. Maddamotha
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Berbs we love you please dont leave us

  7. Lone Wolf FPL
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    We know who is AE Supermen!
    BF=Clark Kent!

    1. Feloh
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      anfield express. a Twitter account

  8. Jairzinho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks again for the lineup, Berb. Appreciate it.

  9. CloudSky
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    ML leader and myself FHed basically the same teams. Its my Mane + Moreno vs Tosun + VVD

  10. Patch
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Cheers big man berbs

  11. AC Tomasso
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Switched from Silva to Sane last second

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      So?

      1. Lone Wolf FPL
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        so he did! ๐Ÿ™‚

      2. Reedy
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        I did it 10 hours ago but that's not as dramatic ๐Ÿ™

      3. AC Tomasso
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        So now I have Sane instead of Silva....

  12. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    liverpool will struggle to break down WBA. You heard it here first!

    1. Kanga roo
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      been posted a few times. sorry

      1. Maddamotha
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Goddamn, cant read every comment on here..

  13. El-Kloppico
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Sterling(c) over Jesus and Salah, last minute!
    Hope it pays..

    1. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      o/

    2. g40steve
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      With you on this!

  14. My Name Is Pepu
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I've not captained Salah and I'm s*****g my pants already.

    1. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Nice

    2. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I feel bad for people who dropped Salah when he was 'injured'

    3. Bonus magnet
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      hahaha
      i have no salah ; drinking some whiskey as we speak

  15. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Mark you can publish preamble now

      1. Jam0sh
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Ok cool thanks Jairzinho

  16. Sandy Ravage
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Is Firmino on bench?

    1. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      yes

  17. Epic Fail
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Berbs is dabbing in his bedroom as we speak.

    1. Grounderz
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Nah, he's checking out his forehead.

    2. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Nah, I'm just glad everyone got the Liverpool players that started.

      1. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Only free hit people.

      2. Lone Wolf FPL
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        good man

      3. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        It's ok, we will seek the justice you deserve.

      4. Point-one short
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers BF

  18. Meppelfield
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Ings captain locked in, lets go ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Bubz
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Really?

      1. Meppelfield
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Sure. season all but ended not owning salah for gw31, so i might aswell go big on a differential to see what happens.

    2. Firminooooo
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Love it. I got Ings and Moreno.

  19. Red Star Toro
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Didn't go with Ings after all, but I think he'll do well

  20. COLLIN QUANER
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I've captained Jesus so I'm hoping he scores a few goals tomorrow

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Same here for my captain and other players I have.

    2. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      He may get on the end of a cross or two...

  21. BIG TONES
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Went for a somewhat alternative line up - pure power

    Pickford
    Tomkins - Klavan - Lascelles
    Salah - Ozil - Sterling - Mane - Sane
    Jesus - Laca

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Looks like all the others to me

    2. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I don't like that defence too much, otherwise ok

      1. Debauchy
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        That's the alternative

  22. Differentiator
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Preparing for the worst

    Pickford
    Dawson - Tarkowski - VVD - Bellerin - Tomkins
    KDB - Sterling - Zaha
    Failmino - Jesus (C)

    -8

  23. Dobswell55
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Hahaha Christ I did Lacazette to Welbeck at the last minute.. Gonna be feeling rightly stupid if he's benched tomorrow.
    Did allow me the funds for KDB though.

    Butland
    Moreno / Baines / Bellerin
    Sterling (C) / KDB / Salah / Mane Zaha
    Jesus / Welbeck

    Hennessy / Perez / Long / Mariappa

    Best of luck to all to all of ye, hopefully THIS is the week we prevail against the casuals!

    1. Eric the King
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Same - good luck!

      1. Dobswell55
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Same to you man ๐Ÿ™‚

    2. g40steve
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I did Auba & Rambo to Welbz & Ozil!
      Anxious times?

      1. Dobswell55
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Ozil should definitely start anyway after being fully rested last week, we'll just have to hope on Welbeck! Could be a great differential if he starts though, in great form.

    3. AndyCook
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Very riskt

        1. Dobswell55
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Part of the game innit.

    4. dicky2014
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Kelly Cates looking nice in yellow dress.

    5. King Carlos
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Bobby benched... damn

      1. Bubz
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        We all knew this before the deadline?

        1. ILOVEBAPS
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Except those like me who logged in only 10mins before deadline and saw nothing.

          1. Bubz
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            ๐Ÿ™

        2. King Carlos
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Yeah I guess so... well A. Barnes to the rescue! ๐Ÿ˜‰

    6. Scapegoat Salah
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Last minute captain change from Salah to Sterling....(gulps)

      1. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        If only you had changed it with more time to spare.

        1. Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          No I did in time. Though now panicking seeing Salah starts...

      2. King Carlos
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Same here

        1. Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Sterling cappers unite! Just praying he starts!

      3. El-Kloppico
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Same boat ๐Ÿ˜‰

        1. Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Fingers crossed!

    7. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Come on FH'ers ๐Ÿ™‚

      Dubravka
      Moreno Tomkins Lowton
      Salah(c) Mané Sterling Sané
      Jesus(v) Lacazette Aubameyang

      (3.9 Milivojevic Long Dummet)

      1. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Get lost.

        1. Legomané
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Back to work Larry ๐Ÿ™‚

      2. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Loving the Mili 10 points and Long cleanie on your bench ๐Ÿ˜‰

        1. Legomané
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          I'll get the Lowton one at least, and according to everyone on here I'll be getting Mili on for Aubs too ๐Ÿ™‚ GL this wk bud

    8. Ruinenlust
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I regret captaining Salah

      1. Jam0sh
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Ok

      2. ILOVEBAPS
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Me too strangely

    9. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      West Brom beat man u last week.
      I would laugh if the same happened this week even though I've Salah capped.

    10. Firminooooo
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Make me happy Ings and Moreno. This cant go bad......

      1. Sánchez
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        I really hope you get your wish with this