Spot the Differential
13 May 2018 3273 comments
James H James H
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Sunday offers us a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

In recent seasons we’ve witnessed a goal rush in Gameweek 38, so we’ve opted for two French threats from Manchester United and Arsenal, while Liverpool’s cut-price full-back also finds a place in our selection as a result of his attacking prowess.

Alexandre Lacazette

While team-mate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most transferred in-forward this week, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Alexandre Lacazette has also been in sensational form for Arsenal.

The French striker has produced five goals and one assist over his last five appearances and, after being rested for the 3-1 defeat to Leicester City, he should return for today’s trip to Huddersfield Town.

Lacazette is likely to start as the central striker for the Gunners, with Aubameyang playing from an inside-left position.

Interestingly, Lacazette has the edge in terms of minutes per shot between the two, averaging an attempt every 31.7 minutes, slightly superior to Aubameyang’s 33.

Although Arsenal have failed to win a single point on their travels in 2018, the fact the Terriers meeting is Arsene Wenger’s final match in charge of the club should provide strong motivation to end the season on a high.

The party atmosphere at the John Smith’s Stadium in light of Huddersfield securing Premier League safety could also be a factor.

The Gunners registered an emphatic 5-0 win when the two teams met earlier in the season, with Lacazette on the scoresheet.

Priced at 10.3 in FPL and ending the campaign full of confidence, the striker looks to have the platform to produce a third consecutive double-figure haul.

Owned by only 7.4% of managers, Lacazette is a player who has the potential to be a game-changer, particularly if he is also considered for the captaincy.

Anthony Martial

With Jose Mourinho revealing that Anthony Martial will be in his line-up today, the midfielder enters the equation as a final day gamble.

The France international has had limited first-team opportunities since the arrival of Alexis Sanchez in January, but the Hornets match-up looks crucial if he is to prove he has a long-term future at Old Trafford.

Martial has produced nine goals and six assists this season, while his average of a goal every 175.7 minutes is only bettered by Marouane Fellaini (153 minutes) among United players.

Watford travel north with just a single point gained from six away matches since Javi Gracia took charge, and having conceded ten goals in away defeats to top-six sides Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

Available at 7.8 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Martial may be an option for managers who can afford to upgrade underperforming players such as Chelsea’s Willian.

With an ownership of 2.5%, the Frenchman represents a major differential for Gameweek 38.

An impressive record against Watford adds to his appeal. He has produced a goal and an assist in the corresponding fixture last season, which Mourinho’s side won 2-0, while he also netted in a 4-2 victory in the reverse fixture in November.

With a point to prove and an FA Cup final spot to play for, Martial fits the profile of a potentially explosive differential.

Trent Alexander-Arnold

While an extended run in Europe has blunted Liverpool’s attack of late, their defensive record at Anfield remains resolute.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have recorded four successive home clean sheets ahead of a visit from a Brighton side that rank joint-bottom for goals scored (ten) on the road.

With that in mind, we’re turning to Trent Alexander Arnold (5% ownership) as our final selection.

Having started only four of the last seven Gameweeks, the youngster’s acquisition admittedly comes with a slight caveat.

But with the Champions League final against Real Madrid taking place 13 days later, we reckon that the Reds’ manager will field a full-strength line-up to ensure a top-four finish.

This should see Alexander-Arnold return to the back-four, having been stationed in central midfield against Stoke City and Chelsea.

Over his last four at Anfield, the right-back is second only to Mohamed Salah when it comes to key passes (seven to eight) for the Reds.

Compared with other defenders over their respective last four home matches, he is placed fourth for both key passes and crosses (28).

Handily, his FPL output has profited from those underlying numbers – Alexander-Arnold has served up 29 points in his last four home fixtures, bagging maximum bonus on two occasions.

Second only to Patrick van Aanholt for transfers-in among defenders, a cost of only 4.4 looks ideal for those seeking to free up cash while recruiting a player with the potential for double figures.

  1. Cocky Spaniel Alves
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    A) Fernandinho (sou)
    B) Rashford (WAT) -4

    1. The Hobbit
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A for sure

  2. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Hi, please help me choose differential for this gw from this list

    A. Zaha
    B. Martial

    1. Laca
    2. Auba

    Thanks.

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      B1

    2. mgrea
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A
      2

    3. TheNovocastrian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A1

    4. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I think a2 do better but are less differential.

      If you want to balance: a1

  3. #FPLBhuna
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Bottomed

    Bit of a chilling experience earlier this morning being woken up at 5am by the police knocking on my apartment asking whether we’d heard a gunshot c.9pm last night.. absolutely bricked it.

    Wish I’d remembered asking him to rate my team now.. it’s the least he could have done shitting me up like that..

    BLEURGH

    Hope y’all have a great final GW and thanks to all those that have offered their advice and have put up with some of my BS!

    1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Sorry to hear!

      Hope your gw makes up for it.

      1. #FPLBhuna
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers pal and yours

  4. Duffy Dunk
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Imagine that this time tomorrow there won't be any request for advice.
    Wow

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Depressing thought

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Scotty B will go into hibernation for three months.

    2. Sideways Backwards
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      But lots of wearisome bad luck stories

    3. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Wait for the wc to start

    4. Richd
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I like the name

  5. Dele
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Was there ever a hot topic for one last Salah vs Kane captaincy dilemma.

    What are the key points for why you should pick one over the other this GW?

    1. MTPockets
        7 years, 6 months ago

        If I had Salah I'd captain him. I have Kane and not captaining him.

      • Dele
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Salah wanting to break the record...

        Spurs playing the everyone pass to Kane at every opportunity plus he’s scored more against Leicester than any other club...

    2. Sideways Backwards
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      For those chasing OR, here's a rundown of points per place currently:

      1: 2452
      10: 2414
      100: 2370
      1,000: 2312
      2,000: 2294
      3,000: 2283
      4,000: 2274
      5,000: 2267
      15,000: 2229
      10,000: 2244
      20,000: 2218
      30,000: 2202
      40,000: 2190
      50,000: 2180
      100,000: 2145
      200,000: 2104
      300,000: 2076
      400,000: 2054
      500,000: 2035
      1,000,000: 1963

      1. Richd
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Can you do 1 mill - 6 mill.

        Asking for a mate

        1. Sideways Backwards
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          lol, sure:

          1,000,000: 1963
          2,000,000: 1849
          3,000,000: 1730
          4,000,000: 1600
          5,000,000: 1382

      2. FPL_Hazards
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Sitting just outside top 50. One last push!!

        1. Fudge
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          good luck sir

    3. dvdguy
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Christensen to start? Will only have 2 playing defenders if he doesn't

      1. ☻ Jon Snow ☻
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        He won’t

        1. ILOVEBAPS
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          How'd u know? Source?

    4. Danstoke82
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Morning all, this lot GTG?

      Fabianski
      Bavies Tomkins Cresswell
      Salah Sterling Zaha Willian
      Kane Jesus J Ayew

      Subs; DDG Kompany Milivojevic Yedlin

      -4

      1. TheNovocastrian
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Is Kompany definitely not starting

        1. TheNovocastrian
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          I'd be tempted to swap him in for tomkins if there is a chance he will play

          1. Danstoke82
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Cheers guys will do.

    5. Ed
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Tadic, Vardy & gross > Martial, Ayew & Zaha (-8)?

      1. ILOVEBAPS
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah man!! Why not?! Seems like fun 🙂

    6. Bleach †
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Quick queston, is Smalling definetly not playing?

      1. Dele
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        95% not playing

    7. jdp219
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Need an odd number of votes to break the tie... Please 🙂
      1) Eriksen, Son > Salah, Arnie (-4)
      2) Eriksen, DDG > Salah, Romero (-4)

      1. MTPockets
          7 years, 6 months ago

          1

        • Klopptomist Scott Jelly
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          2 but would rather not lose Eriksen

        • #FPLBhuna
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          2

        • Dele
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          2

        • ILOVEBAPS
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          2 but not great moves

        • jdp219
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Thanks, all!

          Not keen to lose Eriksen either, so what about:
          Son, Azpi > Salah, TAA?

          1. jdp219
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Means I play Ryan in goal.

          2. Twisted Saltergater
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            2 if you don't have a backup keeper

            1. jdp219
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Have DDG and Ryan

      2. Ribus
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Valencia likely to play?

        1. ENZO SZN™
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Darmian could play there

      3. HD7
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Auba or Laca?

        1. The Hobbit
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Auba if leading
          Laca if chasing

          It all depends on ML’s today

      4. Jet5605
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Hey guys, chasing a 15 point gap. Leader will captain Salah and doesn't have Kane.

        Is my best hope Jesus & Willian > Kane (c) & Zaha/Arnie for a -4 hit or should I avoid the hit and just get Zaha or Arnie?

        Ryan
        Alonso - Lowton - Naughton - Long
        Eriksen - Son - Sterling - Willian
        Jesus - Vardy

        DDG - GroB - Morgan - Barnes

      5. ☻ Jon Snow ☻
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Who do you think start, TAA or Clyne?

        1. CloudSky
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Taa

        2. #FPLBhuna
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Taa

      6. Athletic Nasherbo
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Which move should I do?

        A) De Gea, Lingard + Cedric > Romero, Zaha + TAA -8

        B) De Gea + Lingard > Romero + Zaha -4 but have to play A.King

        C) De Gea, Lingard + Barnes > Romero, Mata + Vokes -8

        Cheers

        1. Mongreloid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          B

      7. #FPLBhuna
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        On a -4 with this squad

        Lloris
        Mustafi - Robertson - TAA
        Salah - Sane - Dilva - Arnie
        Kane - Jesus - Jayew

        Fabianski - Baines - VDH - Kenedy

        Do I need to take a further -4 and bin Kenedy > Mili or do I have sufficient bench coverage?

        1. TheNovocastrian
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          I'd stick and save 4pts

          1. #FPLBhuna
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Cheers

        2. Mongreloid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          You’re fine as you are

      8. Frank Koscielny
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        I have such ambivalent feelings towards this site. Thank you all for your hilarious, passive aggressive and candid tips and responses. Best of luck today:)

        1. Fantasy Gold
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          You’re welcome

      9. Lignja
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Ddg
        Alonso, Smalling, Lowton
        Salah(c), Sterling, Son, Arnautovic
        Kane, Jesus, Ayew

        Ryan, Long, Morgan, Hojberg

        1ft 0.1m itb
        Doing Smalling to Vvd. Gtg?

      10. Wass up
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Hennessey

        Lowton Christensen Daniels

        Zaha(C) Martial Sterling Son

        Auba Rashford Kane

        DDG-Naughton-Mooy- Bauer

        1) Best starting 11 as it is ?
        2) Zaha cap? crazy or worth a shot?

      11. CloudSky
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        A: Smalling -> VVD
        B: Kiko -> TAA on the off chance Smalling starts

        1. Mongreloid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          My current dilemma this one. I’m tempted to stick with smelling and allow dummet to come off the bench. Already took a -4 to switch DDG to Romero and am loathe to take further hits

        2. AccountAnt80
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          I'm in the same situation. Can't decide. TAA definitely starting?

          1. CloudSky
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Should do.

      12. Alan_T
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Spurs need to win, right? Otherwise Liverpool could finish third?

        Therefore can’t see Alli or Eriksen being rested like some people mentioned.

        1. #FPLBhuna
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Correct

        2. Dele
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          No need to rest it’s the last game! Full strength from Poch today.

          1. Alan_T
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Alli captain FTW

        3. FPL_Hazards
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          No they dont, CL qualified

        4. CloudSky
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          They dont need to be third.

          1. Alan_T
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Makes a big difference, fourth have to start the season earlier in qualifying.

            Especially in a WC year when players are back late anyway

            1. CloudSky
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              No they dont. 4th are auto qed too.

            2. Mini Mane Mo
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Next season onwards automatically into group stage

        5. TheNovocastrian
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          So does that mean davies will start?

        6. MTPockets
            7 years, 6 months ago

            3rd for what though.

            1. Alan_T
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              £££

        7. IRBOX ⚽
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Romero 100% playing?

          1. Richd
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            98%

          2. #FPLBhuna
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            92.73

          3. Dele
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            99.2%

          4. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Scenes if Jose just straight up lied!

        8. Richd
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Does anyone think Salah will rise in price tonight ?

          1. #FPLBhuna
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Lol

          2. CloudSky
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Double rise I imagine.

          3. The Hobbit
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            He should rise, get him in today but whait until he plays. Injuries happens.

          4. FPL_Hazards
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Hope not, its what they use to decide next seasons price

        9. Slitherene
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          PvA, Monreal or VvD?

          1. TheNovocastrian
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            I went Monreal

        10. Gaffa914
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          De Gea and Lingard to Adrian and Martial?

        11. crashingbore
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Martial, Arnautovic or Zaha?

          1. Alan_T
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Mata

        12. Rhodes your boat
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Had an awful end to the season so any suggestions for the final week,

          de gea ryan
          alonso morgan yedlin dummett lowton
          salah sterling son arnautovic ibe
          kane vardy murray

          1ft 0.1itb

        13. Down with this sort of thin…
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Any news on Trippier? Walker-Peters to start?

        14. AccountAnt80
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Boring Q...

          Play Mawson or Lowton?