The Dangers of Using Chips in Early Gameweeks

The three chips are extremely valuable assets in the FPL game and their use should be carefully considered in order to maximise the points return bonus you can get from them. In the early stages of a new season many managers are tempted to use one or more of the chips for a fast start or in an attempt to make up for low points returns in the first few gameweeks. However, is it better to save them, and even at this early stage is it possible to devise a potential strategy to use the chips in the most beneficial way?

What is the usual approach?

Generally, a common tactic deployed by many FPL managers is to save their chips for later in the season, in particular to wait for and take advantage of double gameweeks that arise in the FPL fixture schedule. This makes a lot of sense especially when it comes to the Triple Captain chip as it gives you two lots of appearance points as well as two opportunities for your selected player to put in a big performance. Even if a Forward you selected scores a single goal in each game, the likely return from this including bonus points could challenge that of a Forward scoring a hat-trick in a single game, and the chances of picking a hat-trick out for a Triple Captain is pretty slim. Consistent midfield performers such as Kevin de Bruyne and Christian Eriksen also emerge as top Triple Captain candidates in double gameweeks as their almost-guaranteed presence in the starting XI, plus consistent goal contributions, bonus point potential, and clean sheet bonuses mean that over two matches they are as safe a bet as you can make to rack up a big score.

Double Gameweek Predictions

In order to try and persuade you that saving your chips is almost essential, I have looked at when possible double gameweeks will arise in the current PL season; from there, it is possible to put together a strategy for chip combinations. Obviously there are estimations involved here and there are no guarantees as to when the double gameweeks will fall and how many teams will be involved, but the aim of this is to ward people away from wasting their chips in the early stages of the season, rather than to give an exact strategy.

First, let’s look at where the potential clashes are that result in games being rearranged:

EFL Cup Final

This game falls on 24th February 2019 and clashes with Matchday 27 of the PL season. It is worth noting that the last 5 finals in this competition have been contested between two PL sides, and every final this century has involved a top flight club, so it is likely there will be at least one, but probably 2 fixtures that must be rearranged.

FA Cup Quarter Finals

These are the fixtures that usually cause the most disruption to the league schedule. Falling on the same weekend as Matchday 31, over the last 10 years an average of over 6 PL teams are still involved in the cup at this stage, and so using these numbers there will probably be at least 5 matches needing to be rescheduled.

FA Cup Semi Finals

Barring postponements for other reasons this is the only other event that will result schedule changes. Set to clash with Matchday 33, on only 3 occasions in the past 10 seasons have the FA Cup semi finalists not been all top flight clubs and generally at least 3 PL clubs will still be involved, leading to potentially 3 games that could make up part of a double gameweek.

So now to when the matches could be potentially moved to, and these are the potential midweek dates that don’t clash with already scheduled PL Matchdays and the international break:

1. 5th-6th March        (clashes with CL last 16)
2. 12th-13th March    (clashes with CL last 16)
3. 2nd-3rd April
4. 9th-10th April        (clashes with CL QF)
5. 16th-17th April      (clashes with CL QF)
6. 23rd-24th April
7. 30th April-1st May    (clashes with CL SF)
8. 7th-8th May             (clashes with CL SF)

Next to the dates I have added potential clashes with Champions League knockout stage matches, which are worth noting as they could lead to matches that were meant to be a part of the same matchday having to be rearranged to different midweek slots in order to accommodate for teams with European commitments. It is also worth noting that dates 1 and 2 are only available to cover the matches cancelled as a result of the EFL Cup final as the FA Cup quarter finals take place after these dates. For the same reasons date 3 is not able to cover matches rearranged as a result of the FA Cup semi finals.

As an example of how this could work out it is worth looking at what would happen if a team were to reach the EFL cup final, the FA cup semis, and the Champions League semis. They would have to play one midweek game on either midweek 1 or 2, as their CL last 16 game will only fall on one of these two midweeks. They would then have to play the further 2 midweek games on midweek 3 and 6 resulting in 3 double gameweeks. While this is perhaps an unlikely scenario it illustrates how the fixtures could play out. Another likely scenario is two blocks of midweek games from the two FA Cup reschedulings resulting in two packed double gameweeks to cash in on.

How to take advantage using the chips

A combination of the three chips plus maybe the use of a saved wildcard is an ideal way to navigate the hectic schedule. If the fixtures work out in a favourable way for the EFL Cup finalists it may be valuable to use the triple captain chip in either gameweek 29 or gameweek 30, depending on where the double gameweeks occur, as this is quite a way before the end of the season when more is at stake and rotation of valuable potential triple captain assets is less likely. A hit may have to be taken with gameweek 31 when as little as 4 or 5 games could be taking place but this can have been prepared for if kept in mind by previous transfers and it will likely be a very low scoring gameweek across the board with so few fixtures. You then have available a bench boost and a free hit with the bench boost to be used on either of the two double gameweeks created as a result of the FA Cup. There is then also a free hit which is perhaps best used in gameweek 33 to build a full playing team for this smaller gameweek. If you have saved a wildcard this can be utilised perfectly in gameweek 32 to prepare a squad full of players with upcoming double gameweeks, as you can do this without having to worry about players not playing in gameweek 33 as your free hit can be used.

Summary

While all predictions as to exactly how the double gameweeks will form are very tentative, what is certain is that they will be there and it will be at the crunch point of the FPL season when every point is so vital. It is the time when you can win big but also lose out massively and having all three chips still intact is the best way to ensure that the latter does not happen. While you may feel that you are stealing a march on your rivals with early season chip use, FPL is a season-long game and ultimately it is your end position that will be used to judge your performance. For this reason I urge you to think before even considering using your chips in the first few gameweeks of the season.