Class is temporary: The Underachievers

A player’s form ebbs and flows throughout and between seasons. Some players achieve greatness, while others can’t even have it thrust upon ’em. So how can we determine who is likely to improve and who is destined to dwell for eternity at the bottom of statistics tables? Why, with wild speculation of course!

I’ve compiled a short list of attacking players who I think underachieved last season, and who therefore might be better value than perceived wisdom tells us. To do this, I have considered whether a player’s conversion rate is likely to improve this season. Here are the highlights.

LOW-COST MIDFIELDERS

Johann Gudmundsson (6.0m), Robbie Brady (5.5m), and Alex Pritchard (5.0m) have conversion rates of 5% or less. They are each already involved in around 20-35% of their side’s goals when they are on the pitch. If they can increase their conversion rate, they will each become great value at their respective price points. Gudmundsson and Brady also posted slightly higher conversion rates in 2016/17, which indicates that they could improve upon last season’s rate in the coming season (Pritchard wasn’t in the Premier League in 2016/17).

However I think all three players are likely to improve on last season’s conversion rates, mostly because they are quality, unselfish players. For a more selfish player − such as Richarlison (6.5m) −  to increase his conversion rate, it may require a reduction in selfishness, which entails a reduction of total shots and, ultimately, goals. Conversely, Gudmundsson, Brady, and Pritchard are likely to get at least as many chances as they did in the previous season (per appearance), which means their shot efficiency will determine their output. Pritchard, in particular, could prove outstanding value now that he is bedded into the Huddersfield team. He is likely overlooked currently due to his fixtures.

HIGHER-COST MIDFIELDERS

Paul Pogba (8.0m) had a conversion rate of 7.9% last season. This one writes itself: if he is afforded a slightly more attacking role, he will likely find himself in shooting positions which are closer to the goal on average compared to the previous season. Not only would his conversion rate likely increase in such a scenario, but also the number of chances and, hence, his and goals (6) and goal involvement (33%).

Kevin De Bruyne (10.0m) posted a conversion rate of 8.5%. This is low for a player of such quality. You would think that he would be aware of this, and could be actively seeking to improve in this area, bearing in mind there is less room for improvement in other areas! Indeed, he had already improved on his 7% conversion from the preceding season, and is capable of double this, as evidenced by his 14.3% conversion in 2015/16. If he works on fine-tuning his game in the final third, we could see increased goal output (if he improves his finishing) and increased assist output (if he more frequently chooses to offload the ball instead of shooting). I don’t imagine goals or assists to decrease except as a function of reduced gametime.

Gylfi Sigurdsson (7.5m), Mesut Özil (8.5m) and Eden Hazard (10.5m) converted at a rate of 10.3%, 10.3% and 16.9% respectively. All three are quality footballers in teams that are undergoing positive changes. All three achieved a conversion rate of 11-13% in the 2015/16 season, with Ozil and Hazard proving they are capable of over 20% conversion in the 2016/17 season (while Sigurdsson only managed 7.8% in a difficult season with Swansea).

I would think that a more dynamic attack at Everton, Arsenal, and Chelsea would lead to more space for these players to shoot. This could result in more shots, and crucially, less pressure from opponents on average when they take their shots. This may sound a bit flimsy, but feel free to put in your own words a variation on the theme, “they will belong to a better attacking system this season”.

That said, Hazard is perhaps the least likely to improve his conversion rate as the Chelsea XI don’t currently fill me with confidence. They may also not fill Hazard with confidence, which means he could take even more responsibility for shooting, which could result in more wayward shots from unfavourable positions. However, they’re likely improve as the season goes on, as all three of these team are.

Jesse Lingard (7.0m) achieved a respectable 14.3% conversion rate. It would be harsh to expect this to fall, though he is capable of scoring only 2.7% of his shots  taken (2016/17). Instead, I shall be generous and assume that a young, improving player is likely to improve his goal conversion. Sure, he has seen a price hike, but he was priced conservatively already due to a lack of nailedness, an issue that has not vanished, but is diminishing in relevance. Lingard is one to watch and potentially jump on if he puts in a couple of good performances.

FORWARDS

Salomón Rondón (6.0m), Álvaro Morata (9.0m), and Marko Arnautovic (7.0m) are intriguing forward options. They managed conversion rates of 8.9%, 13.9% and 15.5% respectively. Rondon could benefit massively from playing in a Newcastle side which promises more goal threat than his previous side, West Brom. I think it was hard work for him there, and he could surprise a few people with his hidden quality now that he’s moved up North. His conversion rate was similar in 2016/17 (8.4%), but better in 2015/16 (12.7%). I would expect him to achieve closer to the latter figure from 3 seasons ago as he’s back in a team that isn’t relying progressively more and more on bus-parking tactics.

Similar to Hazard, Morata should benefit from an improving Chelsea attack. He has proved his quality at times in his Premier League debut season, but has also disappointed in general in front of goal. I would expect his accuracy to improve if he is given the confidence of the new manager to regularly lead the line. It’s certainly possible that he could post conversion rates above 20%, since this is the benchmark set by leaders of other top teams.

Arnautovic is likely to improve upon his 15.5% conversion rate if he spends the whole season as a striker. This is simply due to the positional change which occured part-way through the previous season. The new position could allow him to improve the positions from which he is taking shots, as well as increase his total number of shots and goal involvement. However, it is crucial that he maintains his forward position for this prediction to be valid. He only needs to continue where he left off to become great value, especially when the fixtures change for the better in gameweek 10 or 14.

All three of these players had high goal involvement (40-50%), as you might expect from strikers. This reassures us that an increased conversion rate would see a vast improvement in FPL points, as the players would be scoring more than just a few goals more per season (perhaps 5-10 extra goals is plausible). Rondon, in particular, could greatly outperform his valuation when his fixtures turn for the better in GW9, assuming he has nailed down a place. One for the wildcard, along with Arnautovic, perhaps.

YOUR TURN

So there we have it! Do you agree with my assessment? Are there other attacking players who could be underpriced, and are perhaps going under the radar?