A quick look at the “transfers in” column in the Fantasy Premier League game reveals a similar pattern: the top 14 most-bought players of this round all delivered attacking returns in Gameweek 1.
Sergio Aguero (£11.0m), whose 78,000+ purchases make him the 15th most-transferred in FPL asset, is the first player to feature in the list who blanked on the opening weekend.
All ten of the most-bought midfielders ahead of the Gameweek 2 deadline found the back of the net on Friday, Saturday or Sunday, while the seven most-purchased defenders all either provided an assist or scored themselves on the weekend just gone.
This knee-jerk brand of transfer activity is nothing new, of course, and hardly restricted to Gameweek 1. With so many “active” FPL managers involved at this stage of the season, however, the bandwagon effect is often more pronounced in August.
With that in mind, we’ve delved back into the archives to bring you a potted history of the statistical trends between Gameweeks 1 and 2, and ask if we should pay heed to the form players on the opening weekend of the season or resist the FPL faddism and price rises.
We’ll also examine the difference between goals scored and clean sheets recorded across the two Gameweeks.
2017/18
Gameweek 1
31 goals (3.1 per match – average over the season was 2.68)
8 clean sheets
Gameweek 2
22 goals (2.2 per match)
7 clean sheets
Players who scored in Gameweek 1 = 25
Players who scored in both Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 6 (Lukaku, Pogba, Mane, Martial, Rooney, Okazaki)
Players who assisted in Gameweek 1 = 23
Players who assisted in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 4 (Eriksen, Mkhitaryan, Calvert-Lewin, Mahrez)
Teams who kept clean sheets in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 3 (Huddersfield Town, Manchester United, West Bromwich Albion)
2016/17
Gameweek 1
28 goals (2.8 per match – average over the season was 2.8)
2 clean sheets
Gameweek 2
22 goals (2.2 per match)
7 clean sheets
Players who scored in Gameweek 1 = 26
Players who scored in both Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 3 (Aguero, Ibrahimovic, Capoue)
Players who assisted in Gameweek 1 = 21
Players who assisted in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 1 (Sterling)
Teams who kept clean sheets in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 0
2015/16
Gameweek 1
30 goals (3.0 per match – average over the season was 2.7)
5 clean sheets
Gameweek 2
24 goals (2.4 per match)
7 clean sheets
Players who scored in Gameweek 1 = 27
Players who scored in both Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 6 (Mahrez, A. Ayew, Barkley, Gomis, Kompany, Redmond)
Players who assisted in Gameweek 1 = 25
Players who assisted in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 7 (Albrighton, Hoolahan, D. Silva, Kone, Lens, McArthur, Y. Toure)
Teams who kept clean sheets in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 3 (Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United)
2014/15
Gameweek 1
26 goals (2.6 per match – average over the season was 2.57)
4 clean sheets
Gameweek 2
23 goals (2.3 per match)
7 clean sheets
Players who scored in Gameweek 1 = 25
Players who scored in both Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 4 (Aguero, Dier, Naismith, Ramsey)
Players who assisted in Gameweek 1 = 20
Players who assisted in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 2 (Fabregas, Sigurdsson)
Teams who kept clean sheets in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 2 (Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur)
2013/14
Gameweek 1 (11 matches contested)
28 goals (2.55 per match – average over the season was 2.77)
7 clean sheets
Gameweek 2
17 goals (1.7 per match)
9 clean sheets
Players who scored in Gameweek 1 = 23
Players who scored in both Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 3 (Giroud, Soldado, Sturridge)
Players who assisted in Gameweek 1 = 23
Players who assisted in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 1 (Aguero)
Teams who kept clean sheets in Gameweeks 1 and 2 = 4 (Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United)
Thoughts
For the five-year period we have analysed, there is a notable drop-off in goals scored from Gameweek 1 to 2.
Although there was one more clean sheet recorded in Gameweek 1 last season than there was in the following round of matches, nine fewer goals were conceded in Gameweek 2.
The clean sheet counts increased from Gameweek 1 to 2 in the previous four seasons, too, with the number of goals conceded dropping.
It is noteworthy that a significant number of players who recorded attacking returns in Gameweek 1 in 2017/18 and 2015/16 carried their form into their subsequent fixtures, while there were fewer FPL assets who scored or assisted in both of the first two Gameweeks of 2016/17 and 2014/15.
The significance here is that these last two seasons both came immediately after major international tournaments – as is the case in 2018/19.
Sergio Aguero and Cesc Fabregas, for example, were the only two players involved in the 2014 World Cup who delivered attacking returns in both of their first two fixtures of the 2014/15 Premier League season.
Disrupted pre-seasons in the summers of 2014 and 2016, like this year, affected Gameweek 1 in the subsequent campaigns and we have yet to see the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea and Spurs at full strength.
While the form players of Gameweek 1 this season have understandably – and justifiably – attracted Fantasy interest, the portents from previous campaigns suggest that we can’t expect many of them to replicate their opening-day heroics this weekend – particularly with so many variables still to be introduced (remaining World Cup contingent returning, deadline-day transfers now considered for selection etc).
A cautionary note, too, for the new owners of Benjamin Mendy, Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan-Bissaka et al: not one full-back/wing-back has registered attacking returns in both Gameweek 1 and 2 in the past five seasons.
Of course, this is Fantasy football. The much-underestimated component that is pure, unstatistical chaos can make a mockery of our analyses and render this kind of scrutiny an exercise in futility.
The findings above, however, at least provide food for thought for anyone still mulling over a transfer or two ahead of the Gameweek 2 deadline on Saturday morning.
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