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Does drop in Kane’s numbers affect FPL credentials for Gameweek 8?

2 October 2018 2276 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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Harry Kane (£12.5m) is already the runaway leader of our Gameweek 8 captain poll, but do those currently not in possession of the Spurs forward need to sign him?

That is the big question on the minds of many Fantasy Premier League managers this week, especially with Liverpool and Manchester City options potentially cancelling each other out.

We’ve gone over some of Kane’s numbers from the first seven Gameweeks and compared them with how he was faring 12 months ago, to see if it’s worth selling the likes of Sergio Aguero (£11.4m) or Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) to get him in.

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2,276 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Murder On Zidanesfloor
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Lukaku > Laca for a hit this week?

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    1. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      No

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    2. Robson-Canoe
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Wow no, absolutely no

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    3. Ben the Mee
      7 years, 9 months ago

      No, but I can understand why you'd want to. I'm not going near United players till Jose is sacked

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  2. Enes_Sahini1
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Eriksen, Gray > Sane, Knockaert (-4)

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    1. Murder On Zidanesfloor
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Wait for KDB imo

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      1. Enes_Sahini1
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Eriksen out for a while. When will KDB be back after internationals?

        Also Sane seems to be hitting form, could be a good differential

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        1. Jimmy Floyd
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          When Mendy is back in the next few Gameweeks he won’t play him together with Sane so they will be sharing pitch time, agree Sane has shown good form but too expensive to be missing matches are coming on for 20 minutes

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        2. AlissonBecker fell alone
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          Kdb could be on the bench at anfield.

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    2. altan8797
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Eriksen has a stomach problem. I believe he'll be back for week-end if not tonight. PODFFS is right about Sane, rotation risk when mendy returns

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      1. AlissonBecker fell alone
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Ruled out for Barça and Cardiff games.

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  3. fridge
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Morning all!!

    Patricio
    Alonso. Chilwell. Trippier
    Salah. Mane. Maddison. Fraser
    Aguero. Zaha. Ings

    Foster. Cairney. AWB. Mendy

    A) Salah > Hazard
    B) Mane & Mendy > Hazard & Doherty (-4)
    C) Nothing

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    1. skully
      • 17 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      B for me...

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  4. Eden Wizard
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Can anyone explain why RMT has such a hard on for Salah?
    He's not the highest projected score in my team BUT they suggest captaincy....WTF.

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    1. fridge
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Think he will do well but yeah captain is excessive. Would love to be proved wrong though, he is in my team...

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    2. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      RMT says: when in doubt, captain Salah.

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      1. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        I'm not in doubt, Hazard. Hazard projected higher points yet RMT says go Salah....outrageous

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    3. noquarternt
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah it's baffling. Scoring the most points ever last season combined with huge xG and an alright start this season.

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      1. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Why would you not captain the highest scoring player?

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        1. BigBarn
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          It's probably one of those rotation issues. I think it's saying that Salah has a higher risk of being dropped, and that affects his RMT score but, if RMT definitely knew that he was starting, then his value would be higher and thus your number-one statistical option. It also sometimes suggests playing a player with a lower rating (and benching the higher one) because the value has been lowered due to starting concerns. But, if they play, they should score more.

          Hope that makes sense. It's my best idea.

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          1. Eden Wizard
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 9 months ago

            True story actually, thanks! I've had it say to play fodder in case they start now you mention it!

            Think i prefer the "hard on" theory though 😆

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            1. Geoff
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 13 Years
              7 years, 9 months ago

              This is it.

              The number that is shown involves probability to start. So sometimes, for example, a GK might have a very low number because he is second choice. If the fixture is good, RMT might still tell you to play him because, if he does start, he has a better projection than your other GK

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              1. Planet Head
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 9 months ago

                How come then, seeing as I've had the Beg-Bor GK combo all season, RMT says pick bench Beg and pick Boruc? Both keepers are same team

                Also interested in why RMT also thinks Auba will score pretty much every week when it's clear he won't

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                1. Geoff
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 13 Years
                  7 years, 9 months ago

                  RMT doesn't 'think' he will score every week, RMT makes predictions about outcomes for a specific game, and then for multiple games. I would say a good place to start would be to look at the bookie odds. Do you think Auba is too high for this week?

                  I'll look into the specifics of Beg-Bor

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                  1. Planet Head
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    7 years, 9 months ago

                    In general, Auba's been out of sorts with unimpressive stats and so maybe the form (and his negative OOPness) should be reflected more in the projection. Very subjective of course.

                    Just became a member this season and overall I love the tool, especially the Players part, definitely check there before transfer decisions and it led directly to me choosing Fraser in GW1, so it's for sure valuable.

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      2. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Ridiculous sarc

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    4. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      You can't describe a probability distribution by one number. My guess is that the rmt score shown is an average, but the captain score takes into account other factors - most likely trying to avoid a player more likely to blank because their scoring is more inconsistent (2,2,12,2,12) has a higher average than (8,4,4,8,4), but you might still prefer to captain the second one?

      Or maybe it just loves Salah.

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  5. palace ash
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Thinking of doing Aguero to Kane (-4) after his 90 mins last night (Jesus rested) and Liverpool at the weekend.
    Was going to WC but want to hold for the international break.
    If Kane comes through tonight without injury, is this a decent transfer? Already done Salah to Hazard.

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    1. JBG
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Why not wait until Pep press conference? And I really doubt he's going to start Jesus over Aguero this sunday.

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    2. beefo
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Certainly a fair punt if you plan to WC after the international break. I'm also considering dropping Aguero for the Liverpool game. And Kane vs. Cardiff is tasty.

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    3. Polo
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      If Jesus not starting is a “rest” he must be bloody rested by now. He’s the reserve option that’s why he didn’t start.

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      1. palace ash
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        But didn't play a single minute. Not injured because he was in the bench. Can't see Aguero go from being subbed because of a foot injury to playing 150-180 mins within a week.

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    4. Robson-Canoe
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Agüero is going to start, he's the number one striker + he has 2 weeks to recover after the Liv game - he might get subbed after 60 mins depending on the result though

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      1. Robson-Canoe
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        If City were playing Huddersfield or Cardiff, Jesus might actually get a start, but not against Liverpool, no chance

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    5. Jafalad
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      If you read the above article (excellent) you will see that it is not worth bothering with Kane.

      Use Trippier to cover Spuds.

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      1. The Bandit
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        They have a members crystal ball these days? Better sign up

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        1. Jafalad
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          Get with it Grandad 😉

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          1. Flynny
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 9 months ago

            I'm likely to take the hit.

            Way I see if Kane should score 13 x 2 at weekend

            Not enthralled with hazard captain after uefa cup.

            Will either wildcard or use ft to get kun back.

            Just seems one of those scenarios where it is worth rolling the dice.

            4 pts is pretty inconsequential in the grand scheme of things

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      2. Sharkytect
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Don't need to read it, now. Thanks

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  6. beefo
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Hey all - I've currently got a front line of Aguero/Lacazette/Mitrovic. Thinking about the following moves before each gameweek:

    GW8: Aguero -> Vardy and roll FT
    GW9: Moura -> Mane and Robertson -> TAA
    GW10: sort out bench fodder or roll FT
    GW11: Lacazette -> Aguero

    Gets me to Aguero/Vardy/Mitrovic starting in GW 11, which I like, as well as gets Mane back in the squad. Any thoughts on this plan? Thanks in advance.

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    1. Minion
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      If you can then go Mitrovic to Arnie you’re laughing.

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    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Laca > Arnie

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    3. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      City playing Burnley at home GW9 would put me off that.

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      1. badgerboy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Plus you'll be buying Aguero back at a higher price than you originally bought him for.

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  7. aleksios
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Hi all.Gtg here? 0.2 itb.

    -Patricio
    -Robbo-Alonso-Trippier
    -Salah(c)-Hazard-Maddison-Frazer
    -Kun-Jimenez-King

    ---Foster---WB---Schlupp--Cairney.

    Thanks guys.

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  8. Don Kloppeone
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Need some help with my benching headache pls folks. This is how they line up at the moment but the bench and order may not be right:

    Fab
    Alonso, Robbo, Doherty
    Salah, Hazard (C), Rich, Hughes
    Aguero, Wilson, Mitro

    (Foster) (Fraser, Duffy, AWB)

    Fraser vs Hughes or going 4-3-3 vs 3-4-3 is my main question

    Cheers

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    1. Robson-Canoe
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I'd play Duffy ahead of Doherty and bench Wilson (play Hughes and Fraser)

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      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Hmm I can see Wolves holding a CS vs Palace though. Benching a striker feels like madness

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        1. Robson-Canoe
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          I wouldn't double up on Bou attack away from home though, and Fraser is a much better player than Wilson, that was my thought behind it. You could be right about Wolves, I just have the feeling Duffy could haul.

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    2. Jafalad
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Fraser ahead of Hughes imnvho.

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  9. Amanda Staveley
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    What to do with this lot -

    Ederson, Boruc
    Mendy, Van Dijk, Shaw, Alderweireld, Wan-Bissaka
    Salah, Hazard, Richalison, Kenedy, Gunnarsson
    Aguero, King, Mitrovic

    0.0 ITB
    2FT's

    Issues -
    - Ive kept Mendy through all the price drops as I want him if he comes back but have been missing Trippier points the last few weeks vs the majority...
    - Each week Im tempted by the wildcard even though I dont have major issues.

    Any help is appreciated!

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    1. Jafalad
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I would look to move Mandy to Doherty and use the cash to buy in Maddison who looks ready made for ff.

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  10. Ray In Bruges.
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Fabianski
    Doherty Alonso AWB
    Salah Bilva Hazard Fraser
    Aguero Arnautovic Wilson

    Foster TAA Stephens Peltier

    2FT, 1.8ITB

    A) Bilva > Richarlison
    B) Peltier > Bennett
    C) Aguero > Kane
    D) A+B
    E) B+C
    F) Other Ideas

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    1. Jafalad
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      F Bilva->Maddison.

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    2. Robson-Canoe
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Bilva to Son could be a nice punt

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      1. Ray In Bruges.
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        I like this; I suppose I'll see how Spurs line up today.

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  11. FantaCity
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Auba to who this week ? Will most likely wildcard after, so could be a one week punt
    Currently thinking Arnie. Kane can wait til I WC

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    1. Robson-Canoe
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      If only for one GW, you could take a gamble on Lukaku at home vs Newcastle

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    2. Jafalad
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Arne is a great shout. I have had him from the start and is great value.

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      1. Ray In Bruges.
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Arnie is a season keeper imo; really underrated especially when compared to Zaha.

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    3. Make United Great Again
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah get Arnie.

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  12. Ray In Bruges.
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Anyone else fancy a free hit Aguero > Kane this week?

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    1. Ray In Bruges.
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Cardiff looks tasty and City will have a tough time vs. Liverpool imo.

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    2. Jafalad
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Nope. Not worth it.

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      1. Ray In Bruges.
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        But a free hit is.....free?

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        1. Make United Great Again
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          If you think Kane will score big. Then it’s absolutely worth it.

          Sometimes waiting for this “right” time doesn’t work out

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        2. Ron_Swanson
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          opportunity cost

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  13. Kippers
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Currently have below team and getting similar points to others in my league.. any tips?

    Hart
    Alonso, Robertson, Laporte
    Maddison, Rich, Hazard, Vulva
    Vardy, ageuro, Mitro

    Thanks.

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    1. Kippers
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Lol vulva.. Should be Bilva!

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      1. Jam0sh
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        😀

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    2. Sharpe Shuffle
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Doesn’t he play in the hole?

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    3. skully
      • 17 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      great midfield.. are u planning to getting KANE or SALAH/MANE?

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      1. Kippers
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        I had Salah but got rid.. not really tempted by Kane at the moment which I'll probably regret.

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  14. Make United Great Again
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Patricio
    Bennett Trippier Alonso
    Hazard(C) Maddison Fraser Richarlison
    Kane(vc) Aguero Mitrovic

    Hamer, Robertson, AWB, Hojbjerg.

    Thoughts?

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    1. Delhidynamo
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      wc team?

      quite decent

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      1. Make United Great Again
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Wildcarded couple of weeks back. Not sure who to ditch out of Aguero and Kane to fit in Salah/Mane for GW9

        Thanks!

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        1. Warby84
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          Ditch Kane after this week

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        2. Jules Rimet
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          Kane out.. no brainer.

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    2. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Great team ....is this a WC ?? if yes I would wait for the IB next week.....

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  15. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Morning all, planning to WC in gw10 so looking at 2 gw moves only.

    1) I can afford to get the following 3 big hitters, which combo would you recommend for gw8/9?
    A) salah + hazard + Kun
    B) salah + kane + Kun
    C) hazard + kane + Kun

    Which combo would you prefer next two gameweeks:
    X) Robbo + hazard + king
    Y) Doherty + salah + king
    Z) Bennett + Salah + Zaha

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    1. skully
      • 17 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      1 C & Z

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      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        So on one hand you are advising hazard over salah but having taken into account 3 players, you recommend the salah option. Thoughts?

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  16. hjalmarekdal
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    2FT.
    Hennessey Foster
    Alonso TAA Shaw Bennnett AWB
    Salah Hazard Dilva Richarlison Ward
    Lacazette Mitro Zaha

    What to do with this lot?
    Dilva out for who? Maddison/Özil?
    Other suggestions?
    Can also do Salah Zaha Dilva out for —> Kane Maddison Özil for -4.
    Feel like saving Salah is a good option now with the good fixture coming up after city...

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  17. Make United Great Again
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Aguero or Kane long term? Aguero’s mintues are frustrating.

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    1. Skhstanley
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero imo.

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    2. Ron_Swanson
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      but his goals are enjoyable

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  18. trustmeimpurple
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    What would you do with this team?
    . 2FT 0ITB

    Fab(Hamer)
    WB,Robbo,Trippier(Cedric,Peltier)
    Haz,Mane,Salah,Fraser(Stephens)
    Aguero,Ings,Zaha

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    1. skully
      • 17 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      MANE --> MADDISON
      and try to fill KANE in ur lineup..

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  19. dbeck
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Would you get hazard in for a hit?

    A) mane and Mendy to mee and hazard
    B) mane and wally to gudmunson and hazard

    I plan to wc next week anyway for various reseasons, wanting salah back, Maddison in, wolves def etc. So is a hit for one week worth it?

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    1. norwegian-forest-cats
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      B out of those two.

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      1. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers, worth it, in your opinion, for a week punt for a hit?

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        1. norwegian-forest-cats
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          Who knows. Hazard definitely more likely to score but there is still a chance of mane scoring too. You will get the price rise of hazard. Yolo? I'm looking to get rid of mane personally - he just looks a bit flat.

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  20. norwegian-forest-cats
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Would you do Mane & Kamara > Maddison & Arnie? For a -4.

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    1. Warby84
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I would, I need to off load Kamara myself but don’t have the funds

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  21. Feloh
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    would you say Kane was lucky to get those 2 goals?

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    1. norwegian-forest-cats
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Second goal a penalty so yes. First goal was good.

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    2. Oven Glover
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Luck or no luck. Still a huge confidence boost before facing the worst side in the league.

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  22. Enes_Sahini1
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    repost

    Eriksen, Gray > Sane, Knockaert (-4)

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  23. GW8 DS, Fixture and clean sheet odds
    G-Whizz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    GW8 DS, Fixture and clean sheet odds

    Last week saw Manchester City (752DS) win 2-0, Arsenal (437DS) beat Watford by the same score as did Spurs (415DS) away to Huddersfield. Manchester United (295DS) lost 3-1 away to West Ham.

    GW7 DS accuracy was again around: 80%

    Last week's stats can be found here:
    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/18969716

    GW8 Doosra stats
    ARS: 59
    BOU: -58
    BHA: 85
    BUR: 277
    CDF: -441
    CHE: 335
    CRY: 0
    EVE: -170
    FUL: -59
    HUD: -277
    LEI: 170
    LIV: -32
    MCY: 32
    MUN: 435
    NEW: -435
    SOT: -335
    TOT: 441
    WAT: 58
    WHM: -85
    WLV: 0
    (Doosra gives a more detailed explanation of these numbers here: http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/16458109)

    Tight at the top this week with only two fixtures appearing above 350DS. Spurs (441DS) come out just ahead of Manchester United (435DS) as they face Cardiff and Newcastle at home respectively. Chelsea also deserve a mention just under the radar with 335DS as they face Southampton at Stamford Bridge.

    GW8 Fixture odds can be found here:
    http://prntscr.com/l1dxf5
    (Provided by Betfair.com)

    GW8 clean sheet odds
    Man Utd: 1.90 53%
    Tottenham: 2.0 50%
    Burnley: 2.10 48%
    Chelsea: 2.30 43%
    Crystal Palace: 2.80 36%
    Arsenal: 2.87 35%
    Brighton: 2.87 35%
    Leicester: 3.0 33%
    Wolves: 3.0 33%
    Watford: 3.10 32%
    West Ham: 3.30 30%
    Huddersfield: 3.40 29%
    Everton: 4.0 25%
    Liverpool: 4.0 25%
    Man City: 4.33 23%
    Bournemouth: 4.50 22%
    Southampton: 6.0 17%
    Newcastle: 6.50 15%
    Fulham: 7.50 13%
    Cardiff: 12.0 8%

    Last week all of the top three came through, Manchester City 58%, Tottenham 53% and Wolves 48%.

    My ill advised captain punt blanked and on a week where everyone else's and their dog's didn't I'm quite grateful to get away with just small red arrows.
    Dropped one place to 20 in the Mods and Cons League.
    https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/leagues/standings/29077/classic

    Good luck don't forget the deadline is on a Friday this week and may all your arrows be green!

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    1. fclackless [Brazil Nuts]
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      cheers G ... very useful

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      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        No worries! 🙂

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        1. Patch
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          You capped Salah?

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          1. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 9 months ago

            This week? No, not for me...

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    2. Whats the Mata?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Lovely stuff. Cheers mate.

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      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        You're welcome 🙂

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    3. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      How is the accuracy calculated?

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      1. Pacer.
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        (1/(addition of ratio to 1))*100

        e.g for 3-1:

        (1/(3+1))*100 = 25

        For 5/4:

        5/4 = 1.25

        (1/(1.25+1))*100 = 44

        I think

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        1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          Not sure if serious

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          1. Pacer.
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 9 months ago

            I just answered your question

            Take Man U v Newcastle

            Clean sheet odd 18/20

            18/20= .9

            (1/(1+.9))*100 = 52.6

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            1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
              • 11 Years
              7 years, 9 months ago

              If this is how he is calculating an accuracy of 80% I will eat everyone's hat

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          2. Pacer.
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 9 months ago

            Ah sorry did I misread your question. Surely DS accuracy is even simpler

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      2. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        As a general rule of thumb positive numbers above 150DS should favour that team, negative numbers below 150 should mean a loss. Anything within the -149 to 149 is really quite close so could be a draw could be 1 goal victory either way.

        Here's how I marked a section from last week:
        LEI: -16 (wrong)
        LIV: -5 (correct)
        MCY: 752 (correct)
        MUN: 295 (wrong)
        NEW: 16 (wrong)
        SOT: -225 (correct)

        Others may have a different view, but that's my take on it 🙂

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    4. Jules Rimet
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      "Chelsea also deserve a mention just under the radar with 335DS as they face Southampton at Stamford Bridge."

      St Marys stadium tho

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      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Ahh yeah! Thanks Jules 🙂

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    5. Pacer.
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Was just chatting about this in the hot topic. One of my most useful time saving posts this season. Thanks!

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      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Glad it's of use to someone 😆

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    6. Lord.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I see you've even predicted the score for the Palace-Wolves match.

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    7. IRBOX ⚽
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Richard Beach TV: 103.8 and top 3k. Amazing start

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      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks, IRB - my best start ever, and I haven't even been trying particularly hard to chase TV - I just managed to select a rather successful initial squad for once.

        And my OR would have been even higher if I hadn't stupidly put Fraser's 18 points second on the bench behind Jorginho in GW5.

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          Keep it up, that's a blistering start!!!

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          1. RedLightning
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 9 months ago

            Thanks, G-Whizz. I'll try!

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    8. XabiAlonso
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Cheers gwhizz.
      How do you get these stats, are they from doosra does he still post here.
      I'm on cap Salah this week. If in doubt captain mo is my motto

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      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        He's provided a spreadsheet where the week's results are put in and it gives the DS numbers from there 🙂
        As for captain, it's got to be another walk in the Garden of Eden...

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    9. Klein
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Man Utd biggest contender for CS. Oh boy

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    10. Old Wulfrunian
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks as always.Arsenal only on 56!

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    11. WesMantooth
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Cheers G-Whizz! Everyone should be really greatful for the job you do each week! But if I may, I'd like to add some suggestions.

      - Simply looking at the odds offered at Betfair, and running it through a odds-->probability converter wont give the most accurate likelyhood (%) of an outcome. If you look at the odds for NUFC scoring over/under 0.5 goals, you'll see that betting over offers lower odds than under, which means that the bookies find it more likely that NUFC will score, rather than they wont. This tells us straight away that 53% likelyhood is off mark.
      - You should be looking at odds offered from the sharp bookies (the ones with low margins). They will be the ones closest to "true odds" (where anyone betting should break even). Pinnacle is an example. They offer 1.88 on NUFC scoring, and 2.01 on NUFC not scoring (MU cs). In this market, Pinnacle is trying to bank 3 cents on the dollar, which means that 2.01 pays less than what Pinnacle expectects the likelyhood to be. To Get "true odds" we'll have to account for the margin Pinnacle takes on their bets. Multiplying their odds by 1.03 should give a fair indication of what they perceive to be the "true odds", in this case 2.07. This suggest that the likelyhood of Manchester United keeping a clean is closer to 48%, which differs a fair bit from your Betfair estimations.
      - One thing to also consider. If you post the percentages on a wednesday, the information from pressers, social media, newspapers wont be reflected in the odds and % your reffering to. Lots can happen in a couple of days, which in turn can alter the odds and likelyhood of an outcome.

      This might be considered nitpicking. Your list gives a very fair representation of which clubs are more and less likely to keep a clean. My suggestions are merely aimed at providing some referancepoints as to how they can become even more accurate. Your doing a fantastic job, and I salute you! 😀

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      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Nice one! What a fantastic insight but not going to lie most of that went right over my head but I understand what you're saying in the main.
        The reason I use Betfair is I'm lazy and don't "shop around" not saying by any stretch they'll be offering the best odds on any given week, but merely to be used as a reference point against the DS stats.

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        1. WesMantooth
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks.
          I probably could have explained it a lot simpler.

          - Because Betfair is more "greedy" than other bookies they offer lower odds than what they believe is the probability of an outcome. As a result, their odds become a "less true" representation of likelyhood.
          - A "sharp bookie" is "less greedy", and in return their odds become a better representation of probability.

          Thats basically all we have to keep in mind. Your list of teams give a good representation of who the "best" and "worst" teams are each week. But if you want the likelyhood (%) to be more accurate, you should either:
          A) Use the odds of a "less greedy" bookie (example: Pinnacle).
          or
          B) Use bookie averages provided by sites like Betbrain.

          https://www.betbrain.com/football/england/premier-league/manchester-united-fc-v-newcastle-united-fc/#/team-clean-sheet/ordinary-time/

          If you look at this link you can find "probability" at the bottom of the page.

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          1. WesMantooth
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 9 months ago

            Using this logic will give different percentages than the ones Youve listed:

            MUN: 48%
            Spurs:48%
            CFC:41%
            BUR:41%
            CPL:32%
            Wolves:32%
            LCFC:31%
            Brighton:31%
            ARS:31%
            WAT:30%
            WHAM: 29%
            Huddersfield: 28%
            LFC:24%
            EFC:24%
            City:23%
            BOU:22%
            NUFC: 17%
            SOT:17%
            FUL:13%
            CAR:10%

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          2. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 9 months ago

            Lovely! Makes more sense!!! Will use Betbrain's averages from GW9 onwards, thanks for this 🙂

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    12. Rash
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      These number overestimate man United a little bit lol

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      1. WesMantooth
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        The odds reflect the opinion of those placing bets. Those placing bets use the information available before placing bets. In turn the odds become a very fair representation of probability.

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    13. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      What’s with the Man U - Toon outcome? Surely that’s out with Man U’s form too 🙂

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      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        I would say rightly they're favourites for that game, but you couldn't pay me right now to take a bet on them 😆

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    14. Colonel Klink
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Great info. Thank you for time/effort.

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      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Pleasure!

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    15. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks G !!

      Top work

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      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers mate, hope you have a great week 🙂

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  24. bigbudgie
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    West Ham fixtures gameweek 11-21
    BUR hud MCI new CAR CRY ful WAT sou bur BHA
    Who do you double up with Arnie...
    A) Yarmalenko
    B) Anderson
    C) You don't
    D) A defender

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    1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Too far away

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      1. bigbudgie
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Hypothetically tho
        Tempted to jump on one earlier
        bha TOT lei is not terrible either, TOT always a cracking game for the Hammers

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    2. Typo
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Will monitor Yarm and Anderson over the next weeks

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    3. Eytexi
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Fabianski

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      1. bigbudgie
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Already have Patricio, think he might be a season keeper.
        How about Zaba @ 4.3

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        1. Eytexi
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          If he's nailed that's a good shout

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    4. COYS Down Under
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      D - Fabianski

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    5. IRBOX ⚽
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Obiang is great fodder at 4.4

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  25. PASTATOGEL
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Thoughts on lfc trio - Salah Mane TAA once the City fix is over ?

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    1. danishdynamite
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      If you have the £££ yeah

      I'l be doubling up on TAA + Robbo in defence + Salah

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      1. bigbudgie
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        This. I like this. Every man and there dog has one of them, so having them both is gold imo

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        1. bigbudgie
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          *their

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      2. Eytexi
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        This

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    2. Typo
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      The looks of it, I would rather get KDB for Mane

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  26. Typo
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Would you:

    A: Aguero, Alonso -> Kane + Luiz

    B: Aguero, Zaha -> Kane + Jiminez

    ? Its 2 free transfs

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    1. skully
      • 17 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      and after IB....u'll transfer in AGUERO back? or juz continues with KANE

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  27. EgyptianKing
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Mates after Kun out Kane in (not done yet), my team would look like:

    Patricio
    Alonso, Robertson, Trippier
    Mane, Hazard, Maddison, Moura, Richarlison
    Kane, Wilson

    Hamer, Holebas, Bissaka, Kamara

    What do you think? Suggestions?

    Cheers all!

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    1. Typo
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I like it! any ITB?

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      1. EgyptianKing
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers.

        After Kun out Kane in, I still would be with 0.9 itb

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    2. Lord.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Nice team. I'd be tempted to play Wan-B over Robertson.

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      1. EgyptianKing
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Thank you man.

        Even having Wilson? I am more tempted to play Holebas, if not playing Robertson

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        1. Lord.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 9 months ago

          I thought you would want to avoid the Holebas v Wilson clash, and Palace at home to Wolves should be good for defensive points. You could go with Holebas and Wan-B if you don’t like Wilson’s chances, but I generally prefer the offensive option when there’s a choice. Good luck.

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  28. danishdynamite
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    What with me avoiding the Kane hokey kokey and keeping my WC powder dry this is my main transfer decision this week.

    Play Schurrle / Play Wan-B / transfer Schurrle > Knockaert on an FT

    I've had sexier decisions to make, but still - which one do you reckon? I'm keen on Knockaert

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    1. PASTATOGEL
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      play AWB.. If you're a risk lover then Knockaert

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      1. danishdynamite
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Thx

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  29. as33
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Hey, thinking to get Kane: Hart/Fabiansky
    Robbo, Trippier, Boly, Tomkins, WB
    Hazard, Salah, Bilva, Fraser, Neves
    Auba, Zaha, Wilson
    What about Auba>Kane and Robbo>Doherty? or Auba>Kane and Bilva>Gudmundsson? or any other options? Thanks

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  30. Eden Wizard
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Double Liverpool defence is gonna be the easiest 12+ points stream a week ever for £11.1ml

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    1. Eytexi
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Hope so - plan to double up on TAA and Robbo here.

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      1. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Same, doing it if he gets through tonight unscathed.

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    2. PASTATOGEL
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      i agree

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    3. danishdynamite
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Yup, this

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