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Members October 2

Does drop in Kane’s numbers affect FPL credentials for Gameweek 8?

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Harry Kane (£12.5m) is already the runaway leader of our Gameweek 8 captain poll, but do those currently not in possession of the Spurs forward need to sign him?

That is the big question on the minds of many Fantasy Premier League managers this week, especially with Liverpool and Manchester City options potentially cancelling each other out.

We’ve gone over some of Kane’s numbers from the first seven Gameweeks and compared them with how he was faring 12 months ago, to see if it’s worth selling the likes of Sergio Aguero (£11.4m) or Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) to get him in.

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2,276 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Murder On Zidanesfloor
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 7 months ago

    Lukaku > Laca for a hit this week?

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    1. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      No

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    2. Robson-Canoe
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Wow no, absolutely no

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    3. Ben the Mee
        5 years, 7 months ago

        No, but I can understand why you'd want to. I'm not going near United players till Jose is sacked

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    4. Enes_Sahini1
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Eriksen, Gray > Sane, Knockaert (-4)

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      1. Murder On Zidanesfloor
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Wait for KDB imo

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        1. Enes_Sahini1
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Eriksen out for a while. When will KDB be back after internationals?

          Also Sane seems to be hitting form, could be a good differential

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          1. Jimmy Floyd
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            When Mendy is back in the next few Gameweeks he won’t play him together with Sane so they will be sharing pitch time, agree Sane has shown good form but too expensive to be missing matches are coming on for 20 minutes

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          2. AlissonBecker fell alone
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            Kdb could be on the bench at anfield.

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      2. altan8797
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Eriksen has a stomach problem. I believe he'll be back for week-end if not tonight. PODFFS is right about Sane, rotation risk when mendy returns

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        1. AlissonBecker fell alone
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Ruled out for Barça and Cardiff games.

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    5. fridge
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Morning all!!

      Patricio
      Alonso. Chilwell. Trippier
      Salah. Mane. Maddison. Fraser
      Aguero. Zaha. Ings

      Foster. Cairney. AWB. Mendy

      A) Salah > Hazard
      B) Mane & Mendy > Hazard & Doherty (-4)
      C) Nothing

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      1. skully
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        B for me...

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    6. Eden Wizard
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Can anyone explain why RMT has such a hard on for Salah?
      He's not the highest projected score in my team BUT they suggest captaincy....WTF.

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      1. fridge
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Think he will do well but yeah captain is excessive. Would love to be proved wrong though, he is in my team...

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      2. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        RMT says: when in doubt, captain Salah.

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        1. Eden Wizard
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          I'm not in doubt, Hazard. Hazard projected higher points yet RMT says go Salah....outrageous

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      3. noquarternt
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah it's baffling. Scoring the most points ever last season combined with huge xG and an alright start this season.

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        1. Eden Wizard
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Why would you not captain the highest scoring player?

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          1. BigBarn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            It's probably one of those rotation issues. I think it's saying that Salah has a higher risk of being dropped, and that affects his RMT score but, if RMT definitely knew that he was starting, then his value would be higher and thus your number-one statistical option. It also sometimes suggests playing a player with a lower rating (and benching the higher one) because the value has been lowered due to starting concerns. But, if they play, they should score more.

            Hope that makes sense. It's my best idea.

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            1. Eden Wizard
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 7 months ago

              True story actually, thanks! I've had it say to play fodder in case they start now you mention it!

              Think i prefer the "hard on" theory though 😆

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              1. Geoff
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 11 Years
                5 years, 7 months ago

                This is it.

                The number that is shown involves probability to start. So sometimes, for example, a GK might have a very low number because he is second choice. If the fixture is good, RMT might still tell you to play him because, if he does start, he has a better projection than your other GK

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                1. Planet Head
                  • 7 Years
                  5 years, 7 months ago

                  How come then, seeing as I've had the Beg-Bor GK combo all season, RMT says pick bench Beg and pick Boruc? Both keepers are same team

                  Also interested in why RMT also thinks Auba will score pretty much every week when it's clear he won't

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                  1. Geoff
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 11 Years
                    5 years, 7 months ago

                    RMT doesn't 'think' he will score every week, RMT makes predictions about outcomes for a specific game, and then for multiple games. I would say a good place to start would be to look at the bookie odds. Do you think Auba is too high for this week?

                    I'll look into the specifics of Beg-Bor

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                    1. Planet Head
                      • 7 Years
                      5 years, 6 months ago

                      In general, Auba's been out of sorts with unimpressive stats and so maybe the form (and his negative OOPness) should be reflected more in the projection. Very subjective of course.

                      Just became a member this season and overall I love the tool, especially the Players part, definitely check there before transfer decisions and it led directly to me choosing Fraser in GW1, so it's for sure valuable.

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        2. Eden Wizard
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Ridiculous sarc

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      4. Better off with a pin and a…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        You can't describe a probability distribution by one number. My guess is that the rmt score shown is an average, but the captain score takes into account other factors - most likely trying to avoid a player more likely to blank because their scoring is more inconsistent (2,2,12,2,12) has a higher average than (8,4,4,8,4), but you might still prefer to captain the second one?

        Or maybe it just loves Salah.

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    7. palace ash
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Thinking of doing Aguero to Kane (-4) after his 90 mins last night (Jesus rested) and Liverpool at the weekend.
      Was going to WC but want to hold for the international break.
      If Kane comes through tonight without injury, is this a decent transfer? Already done Salah to Hazard.

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      1. JBG
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Why not wait until Pep press conference? And I really doubt he's going to start Jesus over Aguero this sunday.

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      2. beefo
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Certainly a fair punt if you plan to WC after the international break. I'm also considering dropping Aguero for the Liverpool game. And Kane vs. Cardiff is tasty.

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      3. Polo
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        If Jesus not starting is a “rest” he must be bloody rested by now. He’s the reserve option that’s why he didn’t start.

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        1. palace ash
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          But didn't play a single minute. Not injured because he was in the bench. Can't see Aguero go from being subbed because of a foot injury to playing 150-180 mins within a week.

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      4. Robson-Canoe
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Agüero is going to start, he's the number one striker + he has 2 weeks to recover after the Liv game - he might get subbed after 60 mins depending on the result though

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        1. Robson-Canoe
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          If City were playing Huddersfield or Cardiff, Jesus might actually get a start, but not against Liverpool, no chance

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      5. Jafalad
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        If you read the above article (excellent) you will see that it is not worth bothering with Kane.

        Use Trippier to cover Spuds.

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        1. Wild Rover
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          They have a members crystal ball these days? Better sign up

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          1. Jafalad
            • 14 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            Get with it Grandad 😉

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            1. Flynny
              • 9 Years
              5 years, 7 months ago

              I'm likely to take the hit.

              Way I see if Kane should score 13 x 2 at weekend

              Not enthralled with hazard captain after uefa cup.

              Will either wildcard or use ft to get kun back.

              Just seems one of those scenarios where it is worth rolling the dice.

              4 pts is pretty inconsequential in the grand scheme of things

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        2. Sharkytect
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Don't need to read it, now. Thanks

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    8. beefo
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Hey all - I've currently got a front line of Aguero/Lacazette/Mitrovic. Thinking about the following moves before each gameweek:

      GW8: Aguero -> Vardy and roll FT
      GW9: Moura -> Mane and Robertson -> TAA
      GW10: sort out bench fodder or roll FT
      GW11: Lacazette -> Aguero

      Gets me to Aguero/Vardy/Mitrovic starting in GW 11, which I like, as well as gets Mane back in the squad. Any thoughts on this plan? Thanks in advance.

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      1. Minion
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        If you can then go Mitrovic to Arnie you’re laughing.

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      2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Laca > Arnie

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      3. badgerboy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        City playing Burnley at home GW9 would put me off that.

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        1. badgerboy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Plus you'll be buying Aguero back at a higher price than you originally bought him for.

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    9. aleksios
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Hi all.Gtg here? 0.2 itb.

      -Patricio
      -Robbo-Alonso-Trippier
      -Salah(c)-Hazard-Maddison-Frazer
      -Kun-Jimenez-King

      ---Foster---WB---Schlupp--Cairney.

      Thanks guys.

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    10. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Need some help with my benching headache pls folks. This is how they line up at the moment but the bench and order may not be right:

      Fab
      Alonso, Robbo, Doherty
      Salah, Hazard (C), Rich, Hughes
      Aguero, Wilson, Mitro

      (Foster) (Fraser, Duffy, AWB)

      Fraser vs Hughes or going 4-3-3 vs 3-4-3 is my main question

      Cheers

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      1. Robson-Canoe
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        I'd play Duffy ahead of Doherty and bench Wilson (play Hughes and Fraser)

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        1. Don Kloppeone
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Hmm I can see Wolves holding a CS vs Palace though. Benching a striker feels like madness

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          1. Robson-Canoe
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            I wouldn't double up on Bou attack away from home though, and Fraser is a much better player than Wilson, that was my thought behind it. You could be right about Wolves, I just have the feeling Duffy could haul.

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      2. Jafalad
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Fraser ahead of Hughes imnvho.

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    11. Amanda Staveley
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      What to do with this lot -

      Ederson, Boruc
      Mendy, Van Dijk, Shaw, Alderweireld, Wan-Bissaka
      Salah, Hazard, Richalison, Kenedy, Gunnarsson
      Aguero, King, Mitrovic

      0.0 ITB
      2FT's

      Issues -
      - Ive kept Mendy through all the price drops as I want him if he comes back but have been missing Trippier points the last few weeks vs the majority...
      - Each week Im tempted by the wildcard even though I dont have major issues.

      Any help is appreciated!

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      1. Jafalad
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        I would look to move Mandy to Doherty and use the cash to buy in Maddison who looks ready made for ff.

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    12. Ray In Bruges.
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Fabianski
      Doherty Alonso AWB
      Salah Bilva Hazard Fraser
      Aguero Arnautovic Wilson

      Foster TAA Stephens Peltier

      2FT, 1.8ITB

      A) Bilva > Richarlison
      B) Peltier > Bennett
      C) Aguero > Kane
      D) A+B
      E) B+C
      F) Other Ideas

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      1. Jafalad
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        F Bilva->Maddison.

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      2. Robson-Canoe
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Bilva to Son could be a nice punt

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        1. Ray In Bruges.
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          I like this; I suppose I'll see how Spurs line up today.

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    13. FantaCity
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Auba to who this week ? Will most likely wildcard after, so could be a one week punt
      Currently thinking Arnie. Kane can wait til I WC

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      1. Robson-Canoe
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        If only for one GW, you could take a gamble on Lukaku at home vs Newcastle

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      2. Jafalad
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Arne is a great shout. I have had him from the start and is great value.

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        1. Ray In Bruges.
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Arnie is a season keeper imo; really underrated especially when compared to Zaha.

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      3. Make United Great Again
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah get Arnie.

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    14. Ray In Bruges.
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Anyone else fancy a free hit Aguero > Kane this week?

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      1. Ray In Bruges.
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Cardiff looks tasty and City will have a tough time vs. Liverpool imo.

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      2. Jafalad
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Nope. Not worth it.

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        1. Ray In Bruges.
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          But a free hit is.....free?

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          1. Make United Great Again
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            If you think Kane will score big. Then it’s absolutely worth it.

            Sometimes waiting for this “right” time doesn’t work out

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          2. Ron_Swanson
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            opportunity cost

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    15. Kippers
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Currently have below team and getting similar points to others in my league.. any tips?

      Hart
      Alonso, Robertson, Laporte
      Maddison, Rich, Hazard, Vulva
      Vardy, ageuro, Mitro

      Thanks.

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      1. Kippers
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Lol vulva.. Should be Bilva!

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        1. Jam0sh
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          😀

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      2. Sharpe Shuffle
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Doesn’t he play in the hole?

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      3. skully
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        great midfield.. are u planning to getting KANE or SALAH/MANE?

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        1. Kippers
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          I had Salah but got rid.. not really tempted by Kane at the moment which I'll probably regret.

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    16. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Patricio
      Bennett Trippier Alonso
      Hazard(C) Maddison Fraser Richarlison
      Kane(vc) Aguero Mitrovic

      Hamer, Robertson, AWB, Hojbjerg.

      Thoughts?

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      1. Delhidynamo
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        wc team?

        quite decent

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        1. Make United Great Again
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Wildcarded couple of weeks back. Not sure who to ditch out of Aguero and Kane to fit in Salah/Mane for GW9

          Thanks!

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          1. Warby84
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            Ditch Kane after this week

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          2. Jules Rimet
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            Kane out.. no brainer.

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      2. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Great team ....is this a WC ?? if yes I would wait for the IB next week.....

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    17. UnitednationsXI
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Morning all, planning to WC in gw10 so looking at 2 gw moves only.

      1) I can afford to get the following 3 big hitters, which combo would you recommend for gw8/9?
      A) salah + hazard + Kun
      B) salah + kane + Kun
      C) hazard + kane + Kun

      Which combo would you prefer next two gameweeks:
      X) Robbo + hazard + king
      Y) Doherty + salah + king
      Z) Bennett + Salah + Zaha

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      1. skully
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        1 C & Z

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        1. UnitednationsXI
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          So on one hand you are advising hazard over salah but having taken into account 3 players, you recommend the salah option. Thoughts?

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    18. hjalmarekdal
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      2FT.
      Hennessey Foster
      Alonso TAA Shaw Bennnett AWB
      Salah Hazard Dilva Richarlison Ward
      Lacazette Mitro Zaha

      What to do with this lot?
      Dilva out for who? Maddison/Özil?
      Other suggestions?
      Can also do Salah Zaha Dilva out for —> Kane Maddison Özil for -4.
      Feel like saving Salah is a good option now with the good fixture coming up after city...

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    19. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Aguero or Kane long term? Aguero’s mintues are frustrating.

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      1. Skhstanley
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Aguero imo.

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      2. Ron_Swanson
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        but his goals are enjoyable

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    20. trustmeimpurple
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      What would you do with this team?
      . 2FT 0ITB

      Fab(Hamer)
      WB,Robbo,Trippier(Cedric,Peltier)
      Haz,Mane,Salah,Fraser(Stephens)
      Aguero,Ings,Zaha

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      1. skully
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        MANE --> MADDISON
        and try to fill KANE in ur lineup..

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    21. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Would you get hazard in for a hit?

      A) mane and Mendy to mee and hazard
      B) mane and wally to gudmunson and hazard

      I plan to wc next week anyway for various reseasons, wanting salah back, Maddison in, wolves def etc. So is a hit for one week worth it?

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      1. norwegian-forest-cats
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        B out of those two.

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        1. dbeck
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Cheers, worth it, in your opinion, for a week punt for a hit?

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          1. norwegian-forest-cats
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            Who knows. Hazard definitely more likely to score but there is still a chance of mane scoring too. You will get the price rise of hazard. Yolo? I'm looking to get rid of mane personally - he just looks a bit flat.

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    22. norwegian-forest-cats
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Would you do Mane & Kamara > Maddison & Arnie? For a -4.

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      1. Warby84
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        I would, I need to off load Kamara myself but don’t have the funds

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    23. FER FUSCH AKE
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      would you say Kane was lucky to get those 2 goals?

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      1. norwegian-forest-cats
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Second goal a penalty so yes. First goal was good.

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      2. Oven Glover
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Luck or no luck. Still a huge confidence boost before facing the worst side in the league.

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    24. Enes_Sahini1
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      repost

      Eriksen, Gray > Sane, Knockaert (-4)

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    25. GW8 DS, Fixture and clean sheet odds
      G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      GW8 DS, Fixture and clean sheet odds

      Last week saw Manchester City (752DS) win 2-0, Arsenal (437DS) beat Watford by the same score as did Spurs (415DS) away to Huddersfield. Manchester United (295DS) lost 3-1 away to West Ham.

      GW7 DS accuracy was again around: 80%

      Last week's stats can be found here:
      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/18969716

      GW8 Doosra stats
      ARS: 59
      BOU: -58
      BHA: 85
      BUR: 277
      CDF: -441
      CHE: 335
      CRY: 0
      EVE: -170
      FUL: -59
      HUD: -277
      LEI: 170
      LIV: -32
      MCY: 32
      MUN: 435
      NEW: -435
      SOT: -335
      TOT: 441
      WAT: 58
      WHM: -85
      WLV: 0
      (Doosra gives a more detailed explanation of these numbers here: http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/16458109)

      Tight at the top this week with only two fixtures appearing above 350DS. Spurs (441DS) come out just ahead of Manchester United (435DS) as they face Cardiff and Newcastle at home respectively. Chelsea also deserve a mention just under the radar with 335DS as they face Southampton at Stamford Bridge.

      GW8 Fixture odds can be found here:
      http://prntscr.com/l1dxf5
      (Provided by Betfair.com)

      GW8 clean sheet odds
      Man Utd: 1.90 53%
      Tottenham: 2.0 50%
      Burnley: 2.10 48%
      Chelsea: 2.30 43%
      Crystal Palace: 2.80 36%
      Arsenal: 2.87 35%
      Brighton: 2.87 35%
      Leicester: 3.0 33%
      Wolves: 3.0 33%
      Watford: 3.10 32%
      West Ham: 3.30 30%
      Huddersfield: 3.40 29%
      Everton: 4.0 25%
      Liverpool: 4.0 25%
      Man City: 4.33 23%
      Bournemouth: 4.50 22%
      Southampton: 6.0 17%
      Newcastle: 6.50 15%
      Fulham: 7.50 13%
      Cardiff: 12.0 8%

      Last week all of the top three came through, Manchester City 58%, Tottenham 53% and Wolves 48%.

      My ill advised captain punt blanked and on a week where everyone else's and their dog's didn't I'm quite grateful to get away with just small red arrows.
      Dropped one place to 20 in the Mods and Cons League.
      https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/leagues/standings/29077/classic

      Good luck don't forget the deadline is on a Friday this week and may all your arrows be green!

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      1. fclackless [Brazil Nuts]
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        cheers G ... very useful

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          No worries! 🙂

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          1. Patch
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            You capped Salah?

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            1. G-Whizz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              This week? No, not for me...

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      2. Whats the Mata?
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Lovely stuff. Cheers mate.

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          You're welcome 🙂

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      3. Now I'm Panicking
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        How is the accuracy calculated?

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        1. Pacer.
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          (1/(addition of ratio to 1))*100

          e.g for 3-1:

          (1/(3+1))*100 = 25

          For 5/4:

          5/4 = 1.25

          (1/(1.25+1))*100 = 44

          I think

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          1. Now I'm Panicking
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            Not sure if serious

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            1. Pacer.
              • 9 Years
              5 years, 7 months ago

              I just answered your question

              Take Man U v Newcastle

              Clean sheet odd 18/20

              18/20= .9

              (1/(1+.9))*100 = 52.6

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              1. Now I'm Panicking
                • 9 Years
                5 years, 7 months ago

                If this is how he is calculating an accuracy of 80% I will eat everyone's hat

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            2. Pacer.
              • 9 Years
              5 years, 7 months ago

              Ah sorry did I misread your question. Surely DS accuracy is even simpler

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        2. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          As a general rule of thumb positive numbers above 150DS should favour that team, negative numbers below 150 should mean a loss. Anything within the -149 to 149 is really quite close so could be a draw could be 1 goal victory either way.

          Here's how I marked a section from last week:
          LEI: -16 (wrong)
          LIV: -5 (correct)
          MCY: 752 (correct)
          MUN: 295 (wrong)
          NEW: 16 (wrong)
          SOT: -225 (correct)

          Others may have a different view, but that's my take on it 🙂

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      4. Jules Rimet
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        "Chelsea also deserve a mention just under the radar with 335DS as they face Southampton at Stamford Bridge."

        St Marys stadium tho

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Ahh yeah! Thanks Jules 🙂

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      5. Pacer.
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Was just chatting about this in the hot topic. One of my most useful time saving posts this season. Thanks!

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Glad it's of use to someone 😆

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      6. Lord.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        I see you've even predicted the score for the Palace-Wolves match.

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      7. IRBOX ⚽
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Richard Beach TV: 103.8 and top 3k. Amazing start

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        1. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Thanks, IRB - my best start ever, and I haven't even been trying particularly hard to chase TV - I just managed to select a rather successful initial squad for once.

          And my OR would have been even higher if I hadn't stupidly put Fraser's 18 points second on the bench behind Jorginho in GW5.

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          1. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            Keep it up, that's a blistering start!!!

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            1. RedLightning
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 13 Years
              5 years, 7 months ago

              Thanks, G-Whizz. I'll try!

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      8. XabiAlonso
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers gwhizz.
        How do you get these stats, are they from doosra does he still post here.
        I'm on cap Salah this week. If in doubt captain mo is my motto

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          He's provided a spreadsheet where the week's results are put in and it gives the DS numbers from there 🙂
          As for captain, it's got to be another walk in the Garden of Eden...

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      9. Klein
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Man Utd biggest contender for CS. Oh boy

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      10. wulfrunian
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks as always.Arsenal only on 56!

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      11. WesMantooth
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers G-Whizz! Everyone should be really greatful for the job you do each week! But if I may, I'd like to add some suggestions.

        - Simply looking at the odds offered at Betfair, and running it through a odds-->probability converter wont give the most accurate likelyhood (%) of an outcome. If you look at the odds for NUFC scoring over/under 0.5 goals, you'll see that betting over offers lower odds than under, which means that the bookies find it more likely that NUFC will score, rather than they wont. This tells us straight away that 53% likelyhood is off mark.
        - You should be looking at odds offered from the sharp bookies (the ones with low margins). They will be the ones closest to "true odds" (where anyone betting should break even). Pinnacle is an example. They offer 1.88 on NUFC scoring, and 2.01 on NUFC not scoring (MU cs). In this market, Pinnacle is trying to bank 3 cents on the dollar, which means that 2.01 pays less than what Pinnacle expectects the likelyhood to be. To Get "true odds" we'll have to account for the margin Pinnacle takes on their bets. Multiplying their odds by 1.03 should give a fair indication of what they perceive to be the "true odds", in this case 2.07. This suggest that the likelyhood of Manchester United keeping a clean is closer to 48%, which differs a fair bit from your Betfair estimations.
        - One thing to also consider. If you post the percentages on a wednesday, the information from pressers, social media, newspapers wont be reflected in the odds and % your reffering to. Lots can happen in a couple of days, which in turn can alter the odds and likelyhood of an outcome.

        This might be considered nitpicking. Your list gives a very fair representation of which clubs are more and less likely to keep a clean. My suggestions are merely aimed at providing some referancepoints as to how they can become even more accurate. Your doing a fantastic job, and I salute you! 😀

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Nice one! What a fantastic insight but not going to lie most of that went right over my head but I understand what you're saying in the main.
          The reason I use Betfair is I'm lazy and don't "shop around" not saying by any stretch they'll be offering the best odds on any given week, but merely to be used as a reference point against the DS stats.

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          1. WesMantooth
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            Thanks.
            I probably could have explained it a lot simpler.

            - Because Betfair is more "greedy" than other bookies they offer lower odds than what they believe is the probability of an outcome. As a result, their odds become a "less true" representation of likelyhood.
            - A "sharp bookie" is "less greedy", and in return their odds become a better representation of probability.

            Thats basically all we have to keep in mind. Your list of teams give a good representation of who the "best" and "worst" teams are each week. But if you want the likelyhood (%) to be more accurate, you should either:
            A) Use the odds of a "less greedy" bookie (example: Pinnacle).
            or
            B) Use bookie averages provided by sites like Betbrain.

            https://www.betbrain.com/football/england/premier-league/manchester-united-fc-v-newcastle-united-fc/#/team-clean-sheet/ordinary-time/

            If you look at this link you can find "probability" at the bottom of the page.

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            1. WesMantooth
              • 13 Years
              5 years, 7 months ago

              Using this logic will give different percentages than the ones Youve listed:

              MUN: 48%
              Spurs:48%
              CFC:41%
              BUR:41%
              CPL:32%
              Wolves:32%
              LCFC:31%
              Brighton:31%
              ARS:31%
              WAT:30%
              WHAM: 29%
              Huddersfield: 28%
              LFC:24%
              EFC:24%
              City:23%
              BOU:22%
              NUFC: 17%
              SOT:17%
              FUL:13%
              CAR:10%

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            2. G-Whizz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              Lovely! Makes more sense!!! Will use Betbrain's averages from GW9 onwards, thanks for this 🙂

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      12. Rash
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        These number overestimate man United a little bit lol

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        1. WesMantooth
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          The odds reflect the opinion of those placing bets. Those placing bets use the information available before placing bets. In turn the odds become a very fair representation of probability.

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      13. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        What’s with the Man U - Toon outcome? Surely that’s out with Man U’s form too 🙂

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          I would say rightly they're favourites for that game, but you couldn't pay me right now to take a bet on them 😆

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      14. Colonel Klink
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        Great info. Thank you for time/effort.

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Pleasure!

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      15. The Overthinker
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks G !!

        Top work

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        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Cheers mate, hope you have a great week 🙂

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    26. bigbudgie
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      West Ham fixtures gameweek 11-21
      BUR hud MCI new CAR CRY ful WAT sou bur BHA
      Who do you double up with Arnie...
      A) Yarmalenko
      B) Anderson
      C) You don't
      D) A defender

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      1. Now I'm Panicking
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Too far away

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        1. bigbudgie
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Hypothetically tho
          Tempted to jump on one earlier
          bha TOT lei is not terrible either, TOT always a cracking game for the Hammers

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      2. Typo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Will monitor Yarm and Anderson over the next weeks

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      3. Eytexi
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Fabianski

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        1. bigbudgie
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Already have Patricio, think he might be a season keeper.
          How about Zaba @ 4.3

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          1. Eytexi
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            If he's nailed that's a good shout

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      4. COYS Down Under
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        D - Fabianski

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      5. IRBOX ⚽
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Obiang is great fodder at 4.4

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    27. Tokosbobet88
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Thoughts on lfc trio - Salah Mane TAA once the City fix is over ?

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      1. danishdynamite
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        If you have the £££ yeah

        I'l be doubling up on TAA + Robbo in defence + Salah

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        1. bigbudgie
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          This. I like this. Every man and there dog has one of them, so having them both is gold imo

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          1. bigbudgie
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            *their

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        2. Eytexi
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          This

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      2. Typo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        The looks of it, I would rather get KDB for Mane

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    28. Typo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Would you:

      A: Aguero, Alonso -> Kane + Luiz

      B: Aguero, Zaha -> Kane + Jiminez

      ? Its 2 free transfs

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      1. skully
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        and after IB....u'll transfer in AGUERO back? or juz continues with KANE

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    29. EgyptianKing
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Mates after Kun out Kane in (not done yet), my team would look like:

      Patricio
      Alonso, Robertson, Trippier
      Mane, Hazard, Maddison, Moura, Richarlison
      Kane, Wilson

      Hamer, Holebas, Bissaka, Kamara

      What do you think? Suggestions?

      Cheers all!

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      1. Typo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        I like it! any ITB?

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        1. EgyptianKing
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Cheers.

          After Kun out Kane in, I still would be with 0.9 itb

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      2. Lord.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Nice team. I'd be tempted to play Wan-B over Robertson.

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        1. EgyptianKing
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Thank you man.

          Even having Wilson? I am more tempted to play Holebas, if not playing Robertson

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          1. Lord.
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 7 months ago

            I thought you would want to avoid the Holebas v Wilson clash, and Palace at home to Wolves should be good for defensive points. You could go with Holebas and Wan-B if you don’t like Wilson’s chances, but I generally prefer the offensive option when there’s a choice. Good luck.

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    30. danishdynamite
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      What with me avoiding the Kane hokey kokey and keeping my WC powder dry this is my main transfer decision this week.

      Play Schurrle / Play Wan-B / transfer Schurrle > Knockaert on an FT

      I've had sexier decisions to make, but still - which one do you reckon? I'm keen on Knockaert

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      1. Tokosbobet88
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        play AWB.. If you're a risk lover then Knockaert

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        1. danishdynamite
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Thx

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    31. as33
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Hey, thinking to get Kane: Hart/Fabiansky
      Robbo, Trippier, Boly, Tomkins, WB
      Hazard, Salah, Bilva, Fraser, Neves
      Auba, Zaha, Wilson
      What about Auba>Kane and Robbo>Doherty? or Auba>Kane and Bilva>Gudmundsson? or any other options? Thanks

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    32. Eden Wizard
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 7 months ago

      Double Liverpool defence is gonna be the easiest 12+ points stream a week ever for £11.1ml

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      1. Eytexi
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Hope so - plan to double up on TAA and Robbo here.

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        1. Eden Wizard
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 7 months ago

          Same, doing it if he gets through tonight unscathed.

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      2. Tokosbobet88
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        i agree

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      3. danishdynamite
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 7 months ago

        Yup, this

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