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Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 24

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 23 REVIEW

It was a disappointing week for the crowd, with only 4 correct predictions out of 10, worse than the community average of 5.84, although two Exact Score picks limited the damage on the global leaderboard.

There have been only two draws in the last 23 Premier League matches, which is most unusual.

GAMEWEEK 24 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW24:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Man City lead the way once again in the predicted goals chart, but with doubts over Pep’s selection, Sergio Aguero ranks only 6th on the captains poll for this week.  Mo Salah is top, with goalscoring form on his side, and Liverpool in 3rd for predicted goals, whilst Arsenal and Man United assets are also worth considering.

In defence, Arsenal and Man United are expected to keep clean sheets at home to Cardiff and Burnley respectively, whilst budget-friendly defenders look in short supply this week

Here are the picks we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Arsenal 2 – 0 Cardiff
Fulham 1 – 1 Brighton
Huddersfield 1 – 2 Everton
Wolves 2 – 1 West Ham
Man United 3 – 0 Burnley
Newcastle 1 – 3 Man City
Bournemouth 1 – 2 Chelsea
Southampton 1 – 1 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 2 – 1 Leicester
Tottenham 2 – 1 Watford

2 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Reedy
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Splendid and tremendous!

  2. jdogg
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Start awb jonny or bednerak?

    Got patricio in goals.x