Spot the Differential
1 February 2019 743 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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This weekly series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5%.

We turn our attention to Double Gameweek 25 for our first pick and cast the net a bit further for our other two selections, who are both starting to look more like the players that shone in 2017/18.

Kevin De Bruyne (£9.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.3%

We highlighted David Silva‘s (£8.5m) appeal in the pre-Gameweek 24 edition of this series and the Spaniard, who provided the assist for Sergio Aguero‘s (£11.3m) early goal on Tuesday evening, is another obvious differential candidate ahead of the imminent Double Gameweek.

In the interests of variety, though, we will instead take to championing the case of another Manchester City midfield star: Kevin De Bruyne (£9.7m).

Plenty of discussion in the Fantasy community this week has centred around the credentials of Leroy Sane (£9.7m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.3m) for this double-header against Arsenal and Everton, with a particular focus on how many minutes each winger will be handed given that City also face Chelsea a week on Sunday.

The same uncertainty is true of the reigning champions’ central midfield, with De Bruyne, David Silva, Bernardo Silva (£7.6m), Fernandinho (£5.3m) and, to perhaps a lesser extent, Ilkay Gundogan (£5.4m) likely to see game-time in Double Gameweek 25.

De Bruyne said himself recently that he doesn’t expect to play every game but the Belgian playmaker is a known favourite of Guardiola’s and made more Premier League appearances in 2017/18 (37 – all but one of them starts) than any of his team-mates.

De Bruyne has started all of City’s four most-recent matches in all competitions and, while he may make way for Bernardo in one of his side’s two fixtures in Double Gameweek 25, the Belgian is still capable of doing damage off the bench: De Bruyne delivered attacking returns as a substitute in Gameweeks 18 and 22.

Over the last two Gameweeks (De Bruyne having returned to the City starting XI in Gameweek 23) only two FPL midfielders have created more chances than the Belgian.

One attempt on goal over those two fixtures isn’t particularly encouraging but then that is the same number of shots that Sterling has registered in the period studied.

De Bruyne delivered attacking returns against both Arsenal and Everton in 2017/18 and those two clubs haven’t convinced from a defensive perspective this season: only Fulham have recorded fewer clean sheets than the Gunners (four) in 2018/19, while Marco Silva’s have registered just two shut-outs in their last 11 Premier League games.

Ben Mee (£4.6m)

FPL ownership: 1.7%

Overpriced and out of form at the start of the season, Burnley’s defenders were something of a no-go zone for the first half of 2018/19.

Over the last month or so, however, the Clarets have been quietly going about their business in more impressive fashion and are currently on a five-match unbeaten run.

Sean Dyche’s side were 2-0 up at Old Trafford on Tuesday with three minutes of normal time to go and but for a soft penalty they conceded to allow Manchester United a lifeline, they might well have taken all three points.

Tom Heaton‘s (£4.8m) return to the side seems to have instilled a greater confidence in the defenders in front of him, with the Clarets banking two clean sheets and sitting in the top half of the table for fewest big chances conceded over the last five Gameweeks.

No Premier League club has conceded fewer goals than Burnley in that time.

Burnley sit second in our Season Ticker for defence over the next five Gameweeks, with Southampton the visitors to Turf Moor on Saturday.

The Saints have registered fewer shots on goal than any other top-flight side over the last six Gameweeks.

Ben Mee‘s (£4.6m) ownership is at the lowest it has been all season and his price has fallen £0.4m since Gameweek 1, making him an all-the-more enticing option for the weeks ahead.

Burnley also have matches in the Blank Gameweeks of 27, 31 and 33.

While Mee is yet to find the net in 2018/19, only four FPL defenders have registered more shots in the box than the Burnley centre-back over the last six Gameweeks.

Mee has also recorded more penalty box touches than any of his fellow Burnley defenders this season.

Pascal Gross (£6.7m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

While we considered an Everton player for this Gameweek 25 piece, the players who qualify as a “differential” (i.e. an FPL ownership below 5%) such as Bernard (£5.9m), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.3m) and Ademola Lookman (£5.1m) are far from secure in Marco Silva’s starting XI and of course face Manchester City in one of their two fixtures.

We have instead taken to highlight the appeal of a Fantasy favourite of 2017/18, a budget midfielder who is just starting to show signs that he is getting back to somewhere near his best.

Pascal Gross (£6.7m) has one goal and two assists in the last four Gameweeks and over that time only two FPL midfielders have created more chances than the German.

Gross indeed sits joint-sixth among players in his position for key passes since returning from injury in Gameweek 13.

Despite playing in a slightly more withdrawn role as part of a central midfield three, Gross has still managed more shots in the box than winger Solly March (£5.0m) and all other Brighton players listed as a midfielder over the last 12 Gameweeks.

Gross is heavily involved in taking Brighton’s corners and free-kicks and this weekend the Seagulls face a Watford side who have conceded more attempts from set plays and headed chances than any other Premier League side over the last four Gameweeks – a positive omen for Gross’s assist potential from dead-ball situations.

Looking beyond this weekend, Brighton sit top of our Season Ticker for the next eight Gameweeks – though of course blank in Gameweek 27.

743 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. ronpateluk
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Play 1:
    Rash or Jiminez
    AWB or Bennett or Bedarek

    1. Bullet Eder
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Start both strikers and AWB

    2. kalmoffit
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Jimi + Bed

  2. Nespinha
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    2FT 0.1ITB - Any suggestions?

    allison, speroni
    doherty, robertson, digne, shaw, bissaka
    salah, siggy, pogba, alli, hojbjerg
    jimenez, aguero, rashford

    1. Peter Ouch
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Digne to someone and roll the tf

  3. cuppatea78
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Alison
    Robertson, Luiz, Doherty
    Salah (C), Hazard, Fraser, Richarlison
    Jimenez, PEA, Rashford

    Subs: Guaita, AWB, Bednarek, Camarasa

    £1.6m ITB & 2 FT

    GTG or any suggestions

  4. AYLD28
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Ederson
    Shaw Doherty AWB
    Salah Sterling (c) Hazard Son Pogba
    Rashford Jimenez

    Hamer TAA Digne Kamara

    0.5 ITB 1FT

    Down to the bare bones this gameweek.

    1. Roll
    2. Digne > Kolas (to have someone on the bench - good going forward)
    3. Pogba > Siggy/D.Silva
    4. Pogba + Digne > Sane + Bednarak
    5. Haz > Sane
    6. Haz + Kamara > Punch + Aguero

    I am going to ditch Haz next week in a double move to upgrade Kamara > Aubam but not sure if I can do it this week, it’s Huddersfield... thoughts?

    1. Donblaster
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      def not 3 or 4.
      1, 2 and 5 not without merit.
      actually quite like the punty 6! could then do straight swap ageuro to Auba next week
      1 or 2 poss most sensible tho

      1. AYLD28
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        I know, that’s what I was thinking too on 6. Could be great but could also be terrible!

        1. Donblaster
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 29 days ago

          I'm on WC (don't ask) and currently pondering:
          A) Robbo & KDB
          B) Doherty & Sterling

          thoughts?

          1. AYLD28
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 29 days ago

            Do you have any other city?

            I own Doherty and Sterling but tbh I’d go Robbo and KDB. I do think KDB, Sterling, Sane and Aguero will play both games but you’d think KDB is most nailed

            1. Donblaster
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 29 days ago

              yes, on WC so gonna triple up
              Aguero, Sane and either KDB or Sterling

  5. Peter Ouch
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Digne replacement

    A Newcastle
    B Burnley

    1. Jack Burton
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      I went Newcastle think they play Cardiff gw27

      1. Peter Ouch
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        cheers duke

  6. CelticBhoy1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Hazard or Sane for this GW?

    1. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Sane but that said before the calamity at vitality I was on hazard cap loll

    2. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Leroooooy!

      1. fenixri
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Jenkins!

  7. rdamjan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Opinion for my 2 FT`s?

    A. Hazard & Anderson -> Sane & Bernardo Silva
    B. Hazard & Anderson & DLuiz -> Sane & KDB & Clyne (for blanks) -4
    C. Hazard & Auba -> Sane & Kun

  8. Fantasyfootballdemon
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Is pog>richarlison madness??

    Lloris speroni
    Robbo lindlof wanb
    Salah sane son pog
    Auba rash ings

    Speroni brooks bednarek digne

    1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Seems a bit odd

    2. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Worse!

      1. Fantasyfootballdemon
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Haha. Just fancy some everton cover.

  9. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    2FT and £0 ITB.

    Fab
    Kola, AWB, Doherty
    Salah, Hazard, Pogba, Rich, Anderson
    Auba, Rashford

    Button, TAA*, Digne, Kamara

    A) This GW - Hazard & Anderson > Sane & Bilva (free)
    Next GW - Digne & Bilva > Bednarek & Son (-4)

    B) This GW - Digne, Hazard & Anderson > Bednarek, Sane & Son (-4)
    Next GW - Save or swap Kamara out

    So I essentially see it as Bilva or Son this GW.

    Cheers

    1. George James
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      I like B mate.

      Thoughts on my team below?

    2. The 5% Team
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      A

  10. George James
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Best move for this bunch? 2 FT 1.7m ITB.

    A) Anderson >> Son (Save FT)
    B) Anderson + Alonso >> KDB + 5.7m def (who?)

    Rest of team

    McCarthy
    Alonso • Doherty • Robertson
    Salah • Rich • Sane • Anderson • Pogba
    Rash • Firmino

    Guatia / AWB / Bennet / Kamara

    1. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Probably A

    2. Donblaster
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      yeh probs A

  11. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    When it gets to GW27... would Pereira be worth the 4 point hit over Chilwell?

    Will be 0.1 short of Pereira, so could get Chillers for free... or take a hit to get the extra 0.1 to allow Pereira...

    It’s basically one attacking return over their nice 10 game run from 27-35

    1. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Chilwell gets forward nicely too from LB though. Pereira has that OOP (occasionally) pull but it'll be a move I'd be reluctant to make.

    2. Bullet Eder
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      I'm getting Chilwell, don't think there will be too much between them if Ricardo is no longer playing in midfield.

    3. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      rather get chilwell then if u need a hit but personally not thrilled by the great run of fixtures leicester have got going from end of last season where they got smashed(with mahrez morgan particularly trolling) after being safe and this year in easy fixtures where they have generally flopped

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Think I’ll probably take the chance & risk them failing rather than avoid & see them flying. The run is way too good on paper...

        Wolves match aside they’re Pretty solid at the back... only conceding 2 goals to city & Liverpool, and taking 4 points from those 2 games was very impressive.

        Hopefully if slabhead stays fit they’ll squeeze out a few cleanies.

  12. Boxwoods
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Anyone capping Salah over Sane or Aguero?

    1. Bullet Eder
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Yep for sure

  13. DR0GBA
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Sane and Sterling owners who are you captaining and why?

    1. kalmoffit
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Sterl has consistently outscored Sane

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Literally the exact opposite is true

  14. liboo
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    any doubt about Ederson ??

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Nah.

  15. Amey
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Non FPL

    With All the talks about Wilson to a big club, i think Brooks should be the one qho should be picked up by a top club.

    He is a tremendous talent !!

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Agreed but he need games. No point going to a big club and sitting on the bench (Chelsea, city)

      1. Amey
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        You're right 🙂
        Hopefully he fulfill his potential. Really like him.

    2. BoleynWin
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      He came through the Man City academy before being released, he won’t go back there to sit on the bench. Good luck to him, takes some balls to come back from rejection at that age

      1. Amey
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        😮
        Didn't know that.
        Thank you for information. Loss for big clubs, gain for minnows.

    3. RomeluAndJuliet
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      True, but he's in the perfect club to develop

      1. Amey
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Agreed

    1. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Do you believe in bib theory?

      1. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        If it favours the players I own, yes 😉

    2. Amey
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Not able to open it.
      Please tell me what is your interpretation.

      1. Arteta
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Ederson
        Walker Otamendi Laporte Zinckenko
        Bernardo Gundogan Silva
        Mahrez Jesus Sane

        1. Amey
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 29 days ago

          I love that.
          Sane 😉

        2. Donblaster
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 29 days ago

          Will prob regret saying this but can’t see that being the lineup vs Arsenal!

        3. _Make
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 28 days ago

          This would be ideal

    3. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Stones, Foden & Kun in a bit... I know where the 1st two usually are 😮

      1. Amey
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        So they'd be benched ??

  16. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Subs done. Captain locked.

    Good to Go?? Thanks and GL all 🙂

    Fab
    Doherty • Bednarek • AWB
    Sané(C) • Rich • Salah • Son • Martial
    Rashford • Aguero(vc)
    (Button / Digne / Kola / Kamara)

    1. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Looks Good!

    2. Amey
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      G2G Rafa
      Hopefully for you Martial plays as your bench looks prime for Negative/Zero points 🙂

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Digne free kick to redeem himself

        1. Amey
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 29 days ago

          That would be nice.
          Good luck buddy 🙂

    3. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      gtg

    4. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Good luck mate......great win in midweek too......well done

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Cheers matey! You all set?

        1. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 28 days ago

          Yes mate and lets hope Sane gets 180 mins and 15pts in both games ......

  17. Slitherene
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Who scores more this GW?

    A) McCarthy (bur) + Trippier (NEW) + Firmino (whu)

    OR

    B) Fabianski (LIV) + Pereira (MUN) + Aguero (ARS, eve)

  18. The Red Devil
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Button/Fab
    TAA/Digne/Bennett/AWB/Kolasinac
    Richarlison/Pogba/Hazard/Salah
    Jimenez/Auba/Rashford

    1.4 ITB 2 FT, suggestions??

  19. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    GTG?

    Fabianski
    Robbo Doherty AWB
    Sane (c) Salah Son Pogba Richarlison
    Auba Jimenez

    Bench: Steele, Digne, Schindler, Kamara*

  20. KingOllie
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Is this ok?

    Haz + rashford -> son + aguero -4

    Week after do Kun to Auba for free?

    1. RomeluAndJuliet
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Wouldn't lose Rash tbh

  21. West Hammered
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Alisson
    Doherty PVA AWB
    Salah Sane Pogba Haz Deulofeu
    Aubu Jimi
    Subs: Button, Bednarek, Digne, Kamara

    2FT, 0.2ITB.

    Any suggestion?

    Ideally want rid of Digne but can't see any good replacement for this GW so thinking Auba to Aguero and switch back again In 26 or 27.

    Also worried if Pogba doesn't play will have nothing on the bench

  22. Sarriball Time
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    What do you think is right, to have both Kepa and Rudiger or to have one of them with Higuain...?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Personally I'd have none of those

      If you put a gun to my head rudiger but even then I'd think twice

      1. Sarriball Time
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        But still which one would you prefer the most...?

        1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 29 days ago

          Is it a free hit or long term? Rudiger

          If free hit higuain

          1. Sarriball Time
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 29 days ago

            No, just for this week against Huddersfield.

    2. Peter Ouch
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      The only defense to double up is Liverpools

  23. Liber
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Son or Sane?

    1. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Both

  24. jaywills
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Anderson + Wilson -> Son + King?
    Yes/No?

    1. Liber
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Not bad.

      1. jaywills
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Anyone better than King for 6.3?

        1. Liber
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 29 days ago

          Not really. Will you play him every week?

  25. FleckyT
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Best City mid option?

    A) Sterling
    B) Sane
    C) Bsilva
    D) Silva
    E) KDB

    1. The 5% Team
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      B

    2. Pukki Party
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      B

  26. fkmzcgp
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Hazard and Ings —> Ward Prowse and Aguero ?? Got 2FT

    1. Gentle_Turks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Yes. Then pray Hazard blanks.
      I did something similar.

  27. Ronin13
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Deulofeu to Sane / Kdb for a hit?

    If yes, who out of sane and Kdb?

  28. wernerhedgehog
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Think I'm going to ditch Richarlison instead of Martial (for Sterling)

    Stroke of genius or just a stroke?

    1. jaywills
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Chances of Son playing?
      1. 25%
      2. 50%
      3. 75%.
      4. 100%
      5. 0%

      1. jaywills
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Wrong place!
        Meant to say probs not. Especially with martial a doubt!

        1. wernerhedgehog
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 29 days ago

          Ole said Martial will play actually.

          Anyway Poch has let on that Son will face reduced minutes but likely to play, so 75%. 25% from the bench.

    2. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Doesn't make much sense.

    3. lugs
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      it could backfire spectacularly , i seem to remember Rich scoring a brace against one of this weeks opponents in gw1

      1. wernerhedgehog
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        yeah im aware, though I feel Wolves have only improved since. 1st game in the pl

  29. thepoet85
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 29 days ago

    Any updates on Fabianski's injury? Not sure if the pressers have happened yet or not.

    1. Forza Papac
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 29 days ago

      Should be fine.

      1. thepoet85
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 29 days ago

        Cheers Forza