Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 28

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 27 REVIEW

The Crowd Wisdom picks managed 5 out of 8 in the shortened game week 27, thrashing the community average of 3.97, which included 2 Exact picks and 2 Close picks.  This resulted in a big green arrow, putting Mr Crowd Wisdom back into the top 25%.

GAMEWEEK 28 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW28:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Man City and Liverpool are top of the Predicted Goals chart, both going into GW28 with home games.

They are likely to give us captaincy picks but, not far behind, Arsenal and Man United are worth considering. This is reflected in the Captains Poll, with Mo Salah and Sergio Aguero leading the way.

In defence, the best bet as usual is whoever is playing Huddersfield. This time it’s Wolves predicted to keep a clean sheet, with Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal also predicted to keep it tight at the back.

Here are the picks we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Cardiff 1 – 1 Everton
Huddersfield 0 – 2 Wolves
Leicester 2 – 1 Brighton
Newcastle 1 – 1 Burnley
Arsenal 2 – 1 Bournemouth
Southampton 2 – 1 Fulham
Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Man United
Chelsea 1 – 2 Tottenham
Liverpool 2 – 1 Watford
Man City 3 – 1 West Ham