Differentials

Three FPL differentials for Gameweek 29 and the blanks ahead

This regular series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5% – or in one case this week, just slightly above it.

We’ve looked at a defender, a midfielder and a forward with appealing matches this weekend as well as guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Michail Antonio (£6.8m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

There was a mad rush on Felipe Anderson (£7.2m) ahead of West Ham’s match against Fulham in Gameweek 27, with Fantasy managers also perhaps having one eye on the weeks ahead when snapping the Brazilian up – the Hammers have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33 as well as some appealing matches beforehand.

While Anderson has struggled for form (one assist in nine matches), his team-mate Michail Antonio (£6.8m) has quietly been more impressive.

Antonio has two goals, one assist and two bonus points in the last four Gameweeks.

The former Nottingham Forest midfielder has started 11 of the last 12 Premier League matches and while the return to fitness of Manuel Lanzini (£6.4m) and Samir Nasri (£5.3m) is perhaps cause for concern, both those players shared game-time in the “number ten” role – rather than wide on the right, where Antonio generally plays – on Wednesday evening in Manchester.

When filtered by last six home matches, only three midfielders – all of them premium ones – have recorded more shots in the box than Antonio.

Antonio’s ability in the air could also be an advantage when Newcastle visit the London Stadium on Saturday: Antonio has recorded more headed goal attempts than any other FPL midfielder when again filtered by last six home matches.

The Magpies, meanwhile, have conceded more headed chances than all Premier League teams bar Burnley this season.

Jamie Vardy (£8.8m)

FPL ownership: 5.3%

We’ve slightly bent the rules on this one.

Jamie Vardy‘s FPL ownership was hovering just below the 5% mark at the planning stage of this article but a modest number of inbound transfers has tipped him over the edge of our usual cut-off point for differentials.

The impact of Claude Puel’s exit is still yet to be fully determined but there was seemingly no love lost between the now-departed Frenchman and Vardy, with the Leicester City striker having previously said Puel’s style didn’t suit him.

Similarly, we are yet to see how the appointment of Brendan Rodgers as Leicester manager affects Vardy’s output.

The “new manager bounce” could be the catalyst for Vardy’s renaissance as a Fantasy asset, however, with the ex-England striker having previously enjoyed a purple patch (five goals in as many matches) when Craig Shakespeare replaced another alleged “adversary” in Claudio Ranieri in February 2017.

Vardy, indeed, was on the scoresheet against Brighton on Tuesday night in Mike Stowell’s sole game in charge.

Certainly, Leicester have some appealing fixtures ahead, starting with a trip to a Watford side that rank in the bottom five for attempts on goal, shots in the box and big chances conceded over the last six Gameweeks.

The Foxes also avoid any of the “big six” from now until Gameweek 36 and have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Vardy’s underlying stats aren’t great over the last six Gameweeks but the calibre of the Foxes’ opposition (Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs) and the Leicester striker’s benching at Wembley have to be taken into account.

Only two FPL forwards have been presented with more “big chances” than Vardy in 2018/19.

James Tarkowski (£4.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.4%

Burnley’s eight-match unbeaten run came to an end on Tuesday night but there is little argument that the Clarets have massively improved following their well-documented struggles earlier this season.

Over the last nine Gameweeks, only four clubs have shipped fewer goals than Sean Dyche’s side.

Just five sides have allowed fewer big chances in that time.

Burnley now have three home matches in the next four Gameweeks – one of which is in Blank Gameweek 31.

Tarkowski recorded three attempts on goal on Tyneside in midweek: Shane Duffy (£4.7m) is the only FPL defender who has registered more shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks.

Only three FPL assets in any position (let alone defence) have registered more efforts than Tarkowski from inside the opposition six-yard box this season.

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2,163 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Bench:

    A) Ederson
    B) Fabianski

    1. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      B

    2. Fossit
      • 2 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      That's a lot of value tied up in GKs. You thought of selling Ederson?

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        17 days, 9 hours ago

        Yep but had no rush given he had good fixtures. -4 to get him out which is pointless given he could score well.

        Since I brought him in I've had other issues including injuries and wanting to alter team shape. GKs took a back seat.

        Not brining in Ederson for the DGW probably would have made a few other moves easier, but all in the past.

  2. donlobatto
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Play
    A) A. Barnes (CRY)
    B) Jota (CAR)

    1. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      A

    2. Fossit
      • 2 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      a

    3. Ini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      17 days, 1 hour ago

      If you’re not gonna play Jota at home to Cardiff then you may as well get rid.

  3. Valar(Keith)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    A) Barnes + Salah
    B) Higauin/Vardy(which one?) + Mane
    Cheers

    1. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      Vardy mane

  4. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Son>Hazard. Change my mind

    1. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      chhhaangggeee yooouuurrrr miiinnndddd

    2. Fossit
      • 2 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      No need to change your mind, good move.

    3. Camzy
      • 8 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      Don't do it. Next week it'll already be bad. And Son can score against anyone. The extra money is relevant too.

  5. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    I have Sterling and Aguero. With Jesus fit and Aguero exhausted surely Sterling (c) and another team entirely for VC makes sense?

    1. Fossit
      • 2 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      yes it makes sense

  6. Wonderful Wizard Hazard
    • 5 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Since Jesus might be getting the start, and Sterling likely to start and great captain option, how does this look?

    Aguero/Rich -> Higuan/Sterling. It could also be Vardy instead of Higuain.

    Fab Henny
    Robo Luiz AWB Bennett Peltier
    Salah Sterling(C) Pogba Son Gunnarson
    Higuain Jimenez Rondon

    1. Wonderful Wizard Hazard
      • 5 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      No hits, would have 0.0 ITB for Higuain or 0.6 ITB for Vardy.

    2. fr3ddy
      • 1 Year
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      Aguero is still more likely to start than Jesus

  7. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 3 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    pick one:
    A) Sterling + Higuain
    B) Hazard + Aguero
    C) Sterling + Aguero
    D) Hazard + Higuain
    using free hit in GW31, so blanks don't matter.
    Cheers

  8. HollywoodXI
    • 4 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Hmm captaincy is tricky this week. Pogba, Hazard, Salah, Mané or Aguero?

    1. Deeney-is-a-god
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      Have aguero, salah and pogba and currently on pogba. Merseyside derbies have been a little low scoring recent years, espacially on goodison. Hazard is a troll, you cannot rely on him scoring in a given fixture, but good player to own over an extended period though. Pogba has delivered in every home match under ole apart from the one against liverpool.

  9. The Red Devil
    • 4 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Which one??
    A- Aubameyang & hojberg to hazard & DCL (-4)
    B-aubameyang & hojberg to higuain & Antonio (-4)
    C- aubameyang to Barnes (FT)

  10. Catastrophe
    • 8 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    1 FT, 0.3 ITB - roll the FT?

    Fabianski
    Doherty, Robertson, Kolasinac
    Sterling, Salah, Mane, Pogba, McNeil
    Aguero, Jimenez

    (Speroni*, AWB, Bednarek, Kamara*)

    Cheers

  11. Codetto
    • 2 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Son (ars) or Jota (car) ----------> Hazard (-4)?

  12. Jealous Viper
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Play Richarlison or Wan Bissaka

  13. rdpx
    • 7 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Son -> Mané

    -4

    ???

    1. La Roja
      • 7 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      No way Jose

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      if planning on taking hits before 31 anyway its fine

  14. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Official FPL has Son in their Scout Picks 😉

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      😉

  15. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Which one?

    A) Higuain
    B) Vardy

    1. rdpx
      • 7 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      i just put in higuain if that helps

      but i'm doing awfully this year

      1. Devo-McDuff
        17 days, 36 mins ago

        Ditto on both counts!

    2. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 2 Years
      17 days, 3 hours ago

      Higuain, hopefully

    3. OptimusBlack
      • 5 Years
      17 days, 2 hours ago

      Gonzalo

  16. Manani
    • 7 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    son > sterling?

    feels a bit wrong to bring in a blanker

    1. Camzy
      • 8 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      I would do it. Plan should be to FH 31.

  17. yuva247
    • 1 Year
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    choose one - For next 2 GWs

    A) lloris - arsenal home, southampton Away,
    B) Fabiasnki - newcastle home, cardiff Away

    1. rdpx
      • 7 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      Fabiskanti

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      a

  18. Stryder05
    • 4 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Who to bench?

    A - TAA
    B - Doherty
    C - VVD
    D - Pereira

    I'm leaning towards D

    1. Sallalujah
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      D sounds reasonable to me.

      Now did I get my bench right, then, from this:
      Fab
      Doherty TAA Robertson Luiz
      Salah(V) Sterling Pogba(C) Jota
      Arnie Jimenez

      Current bench: Barnes Ritchie Digne

      Doesn't feel right to bench Barnes, but unsure who to switch for him.

      Thanks for any suggestions,

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        17 days, 9 hours ago

        this is good

        1. Sallalujah
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          17 days, 8 hours ago

          Cheers!

      2. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        17 days, 7 hours ago

        Would probably play Barnes over Jota on current form. Cardiff defense has been whack, though.

        1. Sallalujah
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          17 days, 7 hours ago

          Appreciate the comment--this is my underlying concern. RMT, btw, benches TAA first (Luiz and Robbo close by next, then Barnes, and only then Jota). I don't intend to bench any of those defenders, so it comes down to Jota or Barnes. I'll polish my Crystal ball (terrible pun) and mull this over a bit more.

          Cheers.

        2. Sallalujah
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          16 days, 11 hours ago

          The Crystal ball switch from Barnes to Jota on the bench hasn't exactly worked well so far today. Sitting behind the sofa, wondering what are the chances that Doherty will remain on bench...

          1. Sallalujah
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            16 days, 11 hours ago

            So much for the chance Doherty remains on the bench. The remaining chance is that Arnie has a relapse and doesn't play. (No offense or ill will intended, Arnie.)

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      d for sure

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      17 days, 7 hours ago

      I have Robbo over VVD in your situation and also benching D.

  19. _Ninja_
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Best move here? 2.2m ITB

    Son - > Hazard/Mane or Save FT

    Patricio Fabianski
    Robbo Doherty Digne Pereira AWB
    Salah Sterling Son Pogba Felipe
    Jiminez Rondon Deeney

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      son to hazard or mane is good

  20. vityovics
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    What should I do, gents? 0.0 ITB. 2 FT.
    Wanna go for FH32 strategy, keeping Pogba and Jimmy on bench.

    Ederson
    Doherty Digne Shaw (AWB, Benett)
    Salah Mane Pogba Son FAnd
    Jim Auba (Success)

    Thinking of Auba+Benett -> Vardy/Higuain+TAA, but Arnie/Haz/Sterling tempting..

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      your first suggestion is great, do it

  21. Keeneddie79
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Lineup Dilemma,
    Keeper:
    A) Guaita (Burnley away)
    B) Fab (Newcastle home)
    Outfield:
    A) Anderson (Newcastle home)
    B) Rondón (WHU away)

    Leaning Guaita/Rondón because West ham D has looked porous lately (I know, so has Crystal Palace) and Newcastle's has been tight...

    Current lineup:
    Guaita // Fab
    TAA, Luiz, Doherty, Mendy // Chilwell b2
    Salah, Mané, Pogba (C) // Anderson b1, Højbjerg b3
    Higuaín, Jiménez, Rondón

    1. 12steps
      • 1 Year
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      Id play the homies

      1. Keeneddie79
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        17 days, 9 hours ago

        Lol logic may be on your side... I'm also a Newcastle fan so is it better to hedge my bets here or go all in on their new found form?

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      AA

  22. rdpx
    • 7 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    bored and thinking of playing a wild card...

    Fab / Fost
    Luiz / VVD / WanB / Diop / Schar
    Pog / Hayden / Mané / Antonio / Haz
    Barnes /Kun / Higuauauaain

    1. rdpx
      • 7 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      +1.4m itb

      1. JT11fc
        17 days, 9 hours ago

        Your current squad is better then most

        1. rdpx
          • 7 Years
          17 days, 9 hours ago

          Thanks man but I'm dying in 2,000,000 OR!!!

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      get salah!

  23. Ole Trafford
    • 6 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Can’t decide on wether to bring in Sterling and Arnie or Mane and Higuain.

    1. rdpx
      • 7 Years
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      MANEHIGUAUUAIN love it

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 9 hours ago

      b

  24. JustPark
    • 3 Years
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    *saw AWB passed fit
    Phew..

  25. finnish92
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    17 days, 9 hours ago

    Auba -> Aguero or Higuain? Will Aguero be rested??

    1. jamie1972
      • 2 Years
      17 days, 8 hours ago

      Kun is a risk, could well be rested

      Also no game in 31

  26. coriswrasse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    17 days, 8 hours ago

    Start Kola or Wan-B?

  27. Tolly101
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    17 days, 8 hours ago

    worth swapping aguero for sterling for a -4 or nah?

    Fabianski
    Robbo, Periera, Doherty
    Salah, Pogba(c), Mane, Maddison
    Aguero, Jimenez, Rondon

  28. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    17 days, 7 hours ago

    Evening all! A few questions:

    Ederson
    Robertson / TAA / Doherty
    Salah / Son / Pogba / Maddison
    Aguero / Jimenez / Barnes

    Fabianski // Pereira / Camarasa / Digne

    1) Play Ederson
    2) Play Fabianski

    A) Keep Son
    B) Son > Hazard (-4)
    C) Son > Sterling (-4)

    If B/C, the best way to do this is to ship Ederson to a maximum 5.2m GK (A), or a 4.6m GK (B). Who are my best bets? Interested in Boruc alternatives.

  29. Annie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    16 days, 13 hours ago

    Aug mega fail ahahaha