Spot the Differential
1 March 2019 2163 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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This regular series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5% – or in one case this week, just slightly above it.

We’ve looked at a defender, a midfielder and a forward with appealing matches this weekend as well as guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Michail Antonio (£6.8m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

There was a mad rush on Felipe Anderson (£7.2m) ahead of West Ham’s match against Fulham in Gameweek 27, with Fantasy managers also perhaps having one eye on the weeks ahead when snapping the Brazilian up – the Hammers have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33 as well as some appealing matches beforehand.

While Anderson has struggled for form (one assist in nine matches), his team-mate Michail Antonio (£6.8m) has quietly been more impressive.

Antonio has two goals, one assist and two bonus points in the last four Gameweeks.

The former Nottingham Forest midfielder has started 11 of the last 12 Premier League matches and while the return to fitness of Manuel Lanzini (£6.4m) and Samir Nasri (£5.3m) is perhaps cause for concern, both those players shared game-time in the “number ten” role – rather than wide on the right, where Antonio generally plays – on Wednesday evening in Manchester.

When filtered by last six home matches, only three midfielders – all of them premium ones – have recorded more shots in the box than Antonio.

Antonio’s ability in the air could also be an advantage when Newcastle visit the London Stadium on Saturday: Antonio has recorded more headed goal attempts than any other FPL midfielder when again filtered by last six home matches.

The Magpies, meanwhile, have conceded more headed chances than all Premier League teams bar Burnley this season.

Jamie Vardy (£8.8m)

FPL ownership: 5.3%

We’ve slightly bent the rules on this one.

Jamie Vardy‘s FPL ownership was hovering just below the 5% mark at the planning stage of this article but a modest number of inbound transfers has tipped him over the edge of our usual cut-off point for differentials.

The impact of Claude Puel’s exit is still yet to be fully determined but there was seemingly no love lost between the now-departed Frenchman and Vardy, with the Leicester City striker having previously said Puel’s style didn’t suit him.

Similarly, we are yet to see how the appointment of Brendan Rodgers as Leicester manager affects Vardy’s output.

The “new manager bounce” could be the catalyst for Vardy’s renaissance as a Fantasy asset, however, with the ex-England striker having previously enjoyed a purple patch (five goals in as many matches) when Craig Shakespeare replaced another alleged “adversary” in Claudio Ranieri in February 2017.

Vardy, indeed, was on the scoresheet against Brighton on Tuesday night in Mike Stowell’s sole game in charge.

Certainly, Leicester have some appealing fixtures ahead, starting with a trip to a Watford side that rank in the bottom five for attempts on goal, shots in the box and big chances conceded over the last six Gameweeks.

The Foxes also avoid any of the “big six” from now until Gameweek 36 and have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Vardy’s underlying stats aren’t great over the last six Gameweeks but the calibre of the Foxes’ opposition (Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs) and the Leicester striker’s benching at Wembley have to be taken into account.

Only two FPL forwards have been presented with more “big chances” than Vardy in 2018/19.

James Tarkowski (£4.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.4%

Burnley’s eight-match unbeaten run came to an end on Tuesday night but there is little argument that the Clarets have massively improved following their well-documented struggles earlier this season.

Over the last nine Gameweeks, only four clubs have shipped fewer goals than Sean Dyche’s side.

Just five sides have allowed fewer big chances in that time.

Burnley now have three home matches in the next four Gameweeks – one of which is in Blank Gameweek 31.

Tarkowski recorded three attempts on goal on Tyneside in midweek: Shane Duffy (£4.7m) is the only FPL defender who has registered more shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks.

Only three FPL assets in any position (let alone defence) have registered more efforts than Tarkowski from inside the opposition six-yard box this season.

  1. paza12
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Patricio, Bednerek and Firmino to Boruc, Trent and Vardy for a -4? Cheers!

    1. timmmuh
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Maybe hold Firmino ... apparently he is close to returning

      1. Too Many Hits
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Vardy > Firmino even if both fit though, would hold off on Boruc if you can afford it, no need to bring them in for a hit, maybe just the Vardy > Firmino move and save an FT? Will likely concede against Everton

  2. Paulie Walnuts
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Hi,

    Is Rashford black in training?

    1. Paulie Walnuts
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Back*

    2. Lemongrab
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      He's back and OGS said he will probably start tomorrow

      1. Flynniesta
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        That’s a game changer for me

  3. Ruinenlust
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Do you think Aguero will start?

    1. Paulie Walnuts
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Yes

    2. Zladan
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Yes. Starts, scores 2, subbed off 60 mins.

      1. Garlana
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Look at the highest point score he's got away all season.

        1. timmmuh
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          highest FPL points away this year is 9

          1. Garlana
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 1 day ago

            This is what I was getting at...2 goals is unlikely

    3. La Roja
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      No imo

    4. Peter Ouch
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      No

    5. KingOllie
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Nope, will be a ready sub if needed

    6. Yank Revolution
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      No

    7. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Owners say yes, non-owners say no.

    8. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Yes

    9. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Yes subbed off 60

    10. Dele
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Definitely not starting

  4. tbhogal
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Hi Guys, Which option is best guys ! £1.9M ITB 1FT..

    A) Son for Mane
    B) Save FT

    Patricio(Hamer)
    Robertson, Kola, Bennett (Digne, AWB)
    Pogba, Son, Salah, Anderson (Hojberg)
    Rondon, Aguero, Jimenez..

  5. barcaa7
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Kun and Son to Vardy and Sterling(c) for -4
    yes or no?

    1. George James
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      thinking same moves.

      yes from me

      1. barcaa7
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Cheers mate

    2. FPLGeezer
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      What's news on Kun. Jesus back for sure?

      1. barcaa7
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        yes

  6. No Kane No Gain
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    More chance of hazard starting against Fulham then on bench in the Europa or other way round we reckon?!

    1. Shatner's Bassoon
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Fulham I think but taken off if game safe.

    2. hustler7
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Starts Sunday, he came off early in the Spurs game.

      1. No Kane No Gain
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Any chance of a double test??

        1. No Kane No Gain
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          *rest

          1. Shatner's Bassoon
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 1 day ago

            Looked at Chelsea players' minutes recently (post below) - would suggest that rests might be more likely to come in defence/centre mid.

  7. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Do you think Nuno had Patricio in his FPL team and had enough like the rest of us? 😀

    1. Deulofail
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Yes

    2. The Bandit
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      I certainly don’t believe that nonsense about Ruddy needing match practice. He’s been dropped

      1. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        About time, a keeper of his calibre should be able to keep more clean sheets. If he can't do it against Huddersfield, he aint never gonna do it.

  8. Deulofail
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Looks like I might be getting Clyne and Boruc off the bench against City 😐

    1. Amey
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Why ??
      Any new injury news ??

      1. Deulofail
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Patricio won't play, and I have Martial doubt, Aguero doubt, and Solanke out. So I could easily get Digne on from first sub, and maybe even Clyne from second :/

        Hopefully Sarri isn't going to replace Kante with RLC or something annoying like that.

        1. Amey
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          Ahh.
          Hard luck with Patricio.
          Martial & Kun will get some minutes imo.
          Kante should start too.

          GL mate

          1. Deulofail
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 1 day ago

            Yeah tbh I forgot that Marital could play. I'd written him off until earlier today. Cheers you too 🙂

  9. Trippier Hazard
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Site suggestion: Can we make the FPL price rises list longer (covering 7 days' changes rather than a fixed set of changes)?

    1. Deulofail
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Would be nice to have them sorted in a more orderly sahion too, perhaps from +0.3 to -0.3 for each day, with some indication of the border between days.

      1. Deulofail
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        fashion*

      2. Deulofail
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Hmm that makes no sense, I guess, as it's changes per day, and you can't price or fall by more than 0.1. Though I thought I'd seen 0,2 in that widget before. Probably I'm mistaken. But then how do we know how many times someone's risen in a week (fairly important price change info imo). Needs a bit of a redesign imo. I appreciate that it's there and it's new. But I avoid it as it is in favour of find ing out for myself via the daily HT and FPLStats.

        1. Mysterion
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          0.2 must've been a double rise in that GW

          http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/Home/Events is decent to keep track...

          1. Deulofail
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 1 day ago

            Not really clear what 0.2 would mean in that widget though. You have to know that 0.2 is impossible to infer it's a second rise or fall forthe week, especially since it's an entry for the day's change, not the week's change. Thanks for the link

            1. Mysterion
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 1 day ago

              Yeah I know what you mean haha it's all here https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/19138399

              1. Deulofail
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 1 day ago

                Doesn't really explain the +-0.2/0.3 thing. I think I made that part up

                  1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
                    • 11 Years
                    7 years, 1 day ago

                    Good to see the feedback was listened to and acted upon 😛

                    1. Mysterion
                      • 8 Years
                      7 years, 1 day ago

                      😀 Geoff's been watching football nonstop since that day

                      1. Deulofail
                        • 10 Years
                        7 years, 1 day ago

                        I didn't read the full thread this time around. Good feedback Jarv. I remember thinking that at the time, honest...

  10. OPTA FPL
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    What is aerial bombardment? Reading Patricio tweet but dont understand that phrase

    1. The Bandit
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      It means lots of high balls raining into the box

      1. OPTA FPL
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Cheers

    2. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Lots of high balls played into the penalty area.

      Nice of him to tell all the upcoming opponents how to unsettle Patricio.

      1. OPTA FPL
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Maybe he will be dropped til the end of season

      2. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Not many teams in the PL use the aerial bombardment route.

    3. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      just old school English football

  11. AnfieldLad
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Get rid of Sane or Son?

    1. Royal5
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Keep

      1. AnfieldLad
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Both? Thinking
        Sane/Son + Aguero -> Sterling + Higuain for free

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          Why sell Kun?

  12. ZakAFC_
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Any ideas for this team?

    Fabianski
    TAA, Doherty, Shaw
    Salah, Son, Pogba, F Anderson
    Auba, Jiménez, Rondon

    Button, Digne, Højbjerg, AWB*

    1FT, 3.6 ITB

  13. DR0GBA
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Which is better for a wildcard team?

    A) Barnes + Rashford
    B) Jiminez + King

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      A

  14. MMN
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Who to get this week, Luiz or TAA? Prefer Luiz did Fulham but TAA rising which means I get priced out of Pogba > Mane next week

    Guaita
    Kola, Doherty, Pereira
    Salah, Pogba, Sterling, Fraser
    Jimi, Vardy, Barnes

    Button, Kiko, Rich, Lovren

    1. MMN
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Prefer Luiz for Fulham*

  15. Donblaster
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Aguero/FAnderson > Higuian/Sterling (-4)

    Yay or Nay?

    1. ScratchingTheMud
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Prefer Vardy over Higuain but other than that, yay

      1. Yank Revolution
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        This

  16. PepSala
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Guaita speroni
    Robbo TAA Doherty Bedna AWB**
    Salah Sterling son Fraser Hjobjberg
    Kun Jimmy Rondon

    A) hjobjberg to Hayden
    B) Guaita to fabianski
    C) save

    1. Wetdream
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Save

  17. Wetdream
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    With the news on Jesus i'm contemplating doing Aguero to Barnes and Anderson to Sterling and sticking the armband on him.Not fussed on losing Anderson despite his game in 31.Bonkers or inspired ?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Not that bonkers. Bloke 2 posts up is doing similar.

      1. Wetdream
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Ha.Hadnt noticed.

    2. Amey
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Inspired

  18. how now brown cow
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    No obvious captain this week.

    Should make it interesting.

    Currently on rash (c)

    1. czechow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Is rash's points going to be curtailed by Lukaku starting?

  19. czechow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Was nailed on to get in Fanderson but this article got me thinking! Any West Ham fans (or anyone who has seen them play much this season) willing to say what they would do?

    Stats in members area suggests Antonio is a greater goal threat but Anderson is more involved in games (passing, dribbles etc).

  20. Shatner's Bassoon
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Chelsea have played 4 games since Monday 18th. Minutes for outfield players (going on BBC reports):

    Rudiger - 390
    Kante - 376
    Azpi - 371
    Jorginho - 314
    D Luiz - 300
    Hazard - 269
    Willian - 248
    Kovacic - 238
    Pedro - 227
    Higuain - 199
    Barkley - 184

    1. No Kane No Gain
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Great thanks

  21. FPLGeezer
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Yay or Nay

    Son & Laca > Mane & Arnie -5

    1. FPLGeezer
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      *-4

      1. TeddiPonza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Wait a week imo

  22. Mo Mané Mo Problems
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Justice for Speroni.

    Guessing no journalist has him in their team (so won't ask if fit) and he will never make the bench again so will be perma-red flagged?

    1. OPTA FPL
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      what happen?

      1. Mo Mané Mo Problems
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        He is red flagged. But I am guessing he isn't going to make the squad whilst Guaita and Hennessey are fit.

        So only will lose red flag on information from a presser. Which won't happen because no one cares!

        1. No Kane No Gain
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          He might make an appearance or sub one in the fa cup!

  23. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Two quick questions:

    Play one out of: (rui in goal)
    A. Diop (NEW)
    B. Bennett (CAR)
    C. Pereira (wat)

    And who to captain?
    1. Pogba (SOU)
    2. Aguero (bou)

    Thanks

    1. Krafty Werks
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Rui not starting Ruddy is, Kun also might not start with Jesus confirmed fit : C1.

  24. Flynniesta
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Exact funds to do Son/Kun > Haz/Higuaín. Must be fate, or is it madness?

    1. estheblessed
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      I was thinking this...

    2. Garlana
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      For a hit?

      1. Flynniesta
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        2 freebies

    3. Bonus magnet
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      and why is aguero being sold?

      people think Jesus will just walk back in to the team and get aguero benched? 2 quick fire goals for aguero then sub more likely

  25. estheblessed
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    1FT and £6.6m in the bank:

    Guaita
    Lindelof, Doherty, VVD
    Pogba, Son, Sane, Kante
    Jimenez, Barnes, Auba

    Boruc, Kolasinac, Ward-Prowse, Wan-Bissaka

    a) Ward Prowse for Hazard
    b) Ward Prowse for Sterling
    c) Other ....

  26. Ziyech on the Bench
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    WB not flagged!

    Start 1:

    A) Perreira

    B) WB

    1. Krafty Werks
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      A

    2. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      B

    3. Amey
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      A

  27. aborg
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Should I play AWB ( Away to Burnley) or Dunk (Home to Hudderfield) ?

    1. Amey
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Dunk

      1. aborg
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Thnks

    2. Flynniesta
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Dunk

  28. Fantasydreamer
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Higuaín or vardy this week? Or ditch rashford and get both in? (No chelsea or Leicester players at the moment)

    1. Garlana
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Higuain this week imo

  29. Garlana
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Anyone taking a -8 this week?

    1. Andy'81
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Just the -4 for me, had a FT saved as well so feels like a mini WC.

  30. si
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    What’s going on the Fantasy Cup?
    Cheers

    1. Amey
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      TM posted yesterday that 56 + Rank might be the qualification criteria