Captaincy Poll 2018-19: results and analysis

After the recent hot topic on overthinking captaincy options and having viewed my own teams captaincy failings via https://www.anewpla.net/fpl/report/index.php I thought it would be interesting to see how well the general consensus fared when it comes to picking the right captain. Below is the % selected by in the poll and their gameweek score (base, non-doubled) for the top 2 in the captain poll for this season (plus third in poll when having more than 10% backing) and some analysis following it.

Scores

GW1  – Salah (58%) 8 pts – Aguero (8%) 2 pts

GW2 – Aguero (44%) 20 pts – Salah (24%) 9 pts

GW3 – Salah (47%) 8 pts – Aguero (23%) 2 pts

GW4 – Aguero (60%) 6 pts – Salah (13%) 2 pts

GW5 – Aguero (54%) 7 pts – Hazard (20%) 20 pts

GW6 – Aguero (27%) 6 pts – Salah (25%) 8 pts – Hazard (18%) 3 pts

GW7 – Aguero (60%) 8 pts – Kane (9%) 13 pts

GW8 – Kane (37%) 1 pt – Hazard (23%) 14 pts

GW9 – Aguero (42%) 6 pts – Hazard (14%) 1 pt

GW10 – Salah (41%) 15 pts – Hazard (13%) 0 pts – Mane (10%) 15 pts

GW11 – Aguero (41%) 13 pts – Hazard (17%) 4 pts

GW12 – Salah (39%) 8 pts – Mane (17%) 3 pts

GW13 – Richarlson (29%) 3 pts – Salah (21%) 8 pts – Aguero (19%) 2 pts

GW14 – Aguero (32%) 0 pts – Sterling (24%) 9 pts – Hazard (19%) 6 pts

GW15 – Kane (34%) 12 pts – Salah (14%) 4 pts

GW16  – Aubameyang (41%) 5 pts – Kane (17%) 1 pt – Salah (13%) 21 pts

GW17 – Kane (40%) 5 pts – Sterling (20%) 6 pts – Aubameyang (13%) 2 pts

GW18 – Sterling (24%) 2 pts – Aubameyang (18%) 13 pts – Hazard (13%) 2 pts

GW19 – Kane (30%) 6 pts – Salah (28%) 12 pts

GW20 – Kane (37%) 6 pts – Salah (13%) 12 pts

GW21 – Hazard (27%) 3 pts – Aubameyang (25%) 9 pts – Kane (19%) 12 pts

GW22 – Salah (37%) 11 pts – Hazard (22%) 5 pts – Aubameyang (13%) 2 pts

GW23 – Salah (64%) 15 pts – Pogba (6 pts) 8 pts

GW24 – Salah (45) 2 pts – Aubameyang (20%) 12 pts

GW25 – Aguero (29%) 17 pts – Sane (25%) 1 pt – Sterling (10%) 10 pts

GW26 – Salah (54%) 8 pts – Aubameyang (17%) 0 pts

GW27 – Aubameyang (32%) 1 pt – Son (22%) 2 pts

GW28 – Salah (40%) 3 pts – Aguero (18%) 9 pts – Aubameyang (15%) 7 pts

GW29 – Pogba (23%) -1 pt – Aguero (17%) 2 pts – Sterling 16% 3 pts

Results

Most appearances as top pick: Salah & Aguero (9 each), Kane (5), Aubameyang (2), Hazard, Sterling, RIcharlson, Pogba (1)

Most appearances in top 2: Salah (16), Aguero (13), Kane, Hazard (7), Aubameyang (6), Sterling (3), Pogba (2), Richarlson, Sane, Mane, Son (1)

Average Score of top captain poll pick: 7.03 with 9 blanks (includes Aguero no show in GW 14)

Average score of 2nd in captain poll: 6.59 with 11 blanks (includes Hazard no show GW10 & Aubameyang no show in GW26)

Analysis

Where the top captaincy pick is backed by more than 40% of managers they averaged 8.6 pts with only two blank (3 pt or worse) week. This occurred 15 times during the season .

Where 2nd in captain poll is backed by more than 20% of managers they averaged 8.21 pts with only 3 blank (3pt or worse) weeks. This occurred 14 times during the season

Where the top captain is backed by less than a third (33%) of managers they averaged only 4.11 pts per week (and this included Aguero’s 17pt week!) with 6 blank (3pt or worse) weeks. This occurred 9 times.

Summary

It’s well worth putting the armband on the top player in the captain poll when backed by 40% or more managers. This will create less variance in your rank but also, in theory, provide a steady stream of captain points with few blanks. A well backed 2nd place pick (20% backing plus in the captain poll) is also a good fall back option.

Avoid weak picks at the top of the captain poll – those with less than 33% backing – as they often fail / blank.

The best strategy overall would be to go with the herd when a player is strongly backed and use those weeks where the top pick is backed by less than 40% of people in top spot to go for a differential captain as it’s less likely to come back and bite you.

If successful, it should push you up the ranks with limited downside if it fails.