Spot the Differential
8 March 2019 664 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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This weekly series puts the spotlight on three players who all have an ownership of 5% or under in Fantasy Premier League.

As we enter the business end of the season, a considered differential pick could provide a welcome boost for those Fantasy managers chasing a mini-league deficit or striving to improve their overall rank.

All three of our selections have home fixtures this weekend, with two of them also having matches in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Gonzalo Higuain (£9.6m)

FPL ownership: 4.3%

Chelsea’s Argentinean striker is still in differential territory despite the Blues enjoying fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33 and, potentially but far from confirmed, a possible Double Gameweek 32.

Higuain looks a particularly enticing premium forward option for those without one or more of their chips and looking for a way to navigate through the choppy waters of the blanks and doubles ahead.

Even for FPL bosses with a full complement of chips, Higuain is an appealing candidate for their front-lines.

Higuain has scored three goals in his last four league matches and has recorded more shots in that quartet of games than any other FPL forward when they are filtered by the same criteria.

No player in his position recorded more attempts on goal or shots in the box in Gameweek 29, either.

The former Juventus forward, along with Eden Hazard (£10.8m), was rested on Thursday night as Chelsea saw off Dynamo Kyiv in the UEFA Europa League.

This weekend’s opponents, Wolves, haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home since Gameweek 8.

Michy Batshuayi (£6.5m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

Not really an option for those Fantasy managers building a team for Blank Gameweek 31 given that Palace are in FA Cup action that weekend, Batshuayi is nevertheless a noteworthy differential for FPL bosses who are adopting a different approach – such as using the Free Hit chip in Gameweek 31.

Batshuayi enjoys home fixtures against Brighton & Hove Albion and Huddersfield Town either side of that blank, while the Eagles could very well enjoy a Double Gameweek 32 depending on what happens in their FA Cup quarter-final tie against Watford.

The downside to any Palace assets, whatever the chip strategy, is that they could very well blank in Gameweek 33, too. That, unfortunately, is something we won’t know until a week on Saturday.

In isolation and as a short-term punt, Batshuayi is an intriguing option.

Batshuayi’s minutes-per-chance average is the same as Sergio Aguero‘s (£11.8m) over the last six Gameweeks.

The on-loan Chelsea forward has three attacking returns in his five appearances for Palace (two of which were as a substitute), including a goal in the 3-1 win over Burnley last weekend.

The Eagles have also scored more goals over the last eight Gameweeks than all Premier League teams bar Manchester City, while Roy Hodgson’s side haven’t failed to find the net in any of their league fixtures this calendar year.

Brighton, Palace’s opponents on Saturday, have conceded two or more goals in each of their last five away league matches.

Ben Chilwell (£5.0m)

FPL ownership: 2.5%

Our championing of Leicester’s full-backs over the past few weeks has sounded like a broken record, particularly when it flies in the face of the Foxes’ defensive form: it is now nine Gameweeks since City registered a clean sheet in the Premier League.

Nevertheless, Brendan Rodgers’ side sit top of our Season Ticker for defence from Gameweeks 30-34 as they enjoy five fixtures against sides in the bottom half of the table.

The Foxes also have unaffected matches in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Despite their lack of shut-outs, Leicester are comfortably in the top half of the table for fewest goal attempts, shots in the box and big chances conceded over the last six Gameweeks – despite facing Liverpool, Spurs, Manchester United and free-scoring Crystal Palace in that time.

While those stats are to be taken with a pinch of salt due to the management change, only Manchester City allowed fewer goal attempts than Leicester in Rodgers’ first Gameweek in charge.

Much uncertainty surrounds which formation Rodgers will adopt going forward, but the hope from a Chilwell owner’s perspective is that the ex-Celtic boss continues with the wing-back system he used at Vicarage Road.

Chilwell, owned by 700,000 fewer FPL managers than Ricardo Pereira (£5.4m), ranked fifth among defenders for touches in the final third last weekend.

The Leicester left-back is joint-second among defenders for that statistic over the course of the season and fifth for chances created.

Fulham, Leicester’s opponents this weekend, have the second-worst record among Premier League sides for chances conceded from their right flank in 2018/19, meanwhile.

664 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Deulofail
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    No Liverpool defenders in the captaincy poll? TAA, VVD and Robertson are 9-11th this week on RMT.

    The likes of Snoddy, Deeney, Schlupp, Jota, Arnie, Almiron, Wilson, Brooks, Schar, Jesus, Alli and are all in the poll, but only projected to get 0.0 - 3.59 compared to 5.45 - 5.71 for Pool defenders.

    I know RMT isn't the be-all-and-end-all, but something not quite right, it seems. Is there some kind of quota system in place for the poll, I don't know about? And what would be the point of that?

    I also think RMT is in dire need of an update if a players expected to get 0.0 or less than 2 points are in the captaincy poll.

    1. Deulofail
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Unintended, I swear. Upvote me anyway

      1. Davido989
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        Upvoted chief. Good agenda.

  2. NUFCAndrew
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Salah or Sterling for Captain? Convince me

    1. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Salah cos he has nice hair.

    2. Stoic
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Salah , he runs better

    3. La Roja
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Sterling. Because he’s a custhy lad.

    4. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Raheem

    5. Tcheco
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Salah because he will get more minutes

    6. jomikijiq
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      I'm going Salah
      -plays against a worse team
      -probably no Milner so he's going to be on pens
      -safer - his EO will be definitely be over 100%, so that way I gain on both his and Sterling's points

  3. Saïss Doesn't Mat…
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Hey guys, any thoughts on my WC team?? Planning to FH32 hence no United for the time being. Any suggestions welcomed before I pull the wildcard trigger...

    Fab Boruc
    Robbo TAA Doherty Diop Bednarek
    Sterling Mane Hazard Brooks Hayden
    Aguero Zaha Vardy

    Ousted: Ether, Kola, Yedlin, Pogba, Son, FAnderson, Gunnarsson, Rashy, Jimenez

  4. coriswrasse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Given the potential of more player matches I am going with strategy 1.
    Here is the TLDR.....

    Strategy 1:FH 31, TC 32, WC34, BB 35
    50 confirmed and possibly 57 player matches
    --------------------------------------------
    GW 33: 7+2FT=9+2 w/44% chance of blank = 11
    11 11(FH31)19 poss 24 9 poss 11
    --------------------------------------------
    GW30 31(FH) 32(TC) 33
    --------------------------------------------
    Guailta Possible DGW |44% Blank
    Fabianski Fabianski |Fabianski

    Wan-Bissaka Possible DGW |44% Blank
    Doherty (b) DGW |Blank
    Robertson Robertson |Robertson
    Azpilicuta Likely DGW |Azpilicuta
    Kolasinac (b) Kolasinic |Kolasinic

    Salah Salah |Salah
    Sterling Likely DGW TC? |87% Blank
    Jota DGW |Blank
    Pogba DGW TC? |Blank
    Almiron Possible DGW |44% Blank

    Vardy Vardy |Vardy
    Jimenez DGW TC? |Blank
    Barnes (b) Barnes |Barnes
    ============================================
    Strategy 2:FH DGW32 WC 34, BB 35, TC??
    50 possible player matches
    48+2 w/TC at later date
    Maybe TC Salah vs. Huddersfield

    DGW32FH (22)
    30(11) 31 (8) 33 (7)
    --------------------------------------------
    Guaita Fabianski Fabianski
    Fabianski Guaita Guaita

    Wan-B Blank Blank
    Doherty(b) Blank Blank
    Robertson Robertson Robertson
    Azpilicueta Azpilicueta Azpilicueta
    Kolasinic(b) Blank Kolasinic

    Salah Salah Salah
    Sterling Blank Sterling
    Jota Blank Blank
    Pogba Blank Blank
    Almiron Almiron Blank

    Vardy Vardy Vardy
    Jiminez Blank Blank
    Barnes Barnes Barnes

    1. Sharkytect
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      This post is absolute chaos

  5. La Roja
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Would you rather to have Zaha or Batshuayi this GW and gw32?

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Bat

      1. La Roja
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        man

    2. jomikijiq
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Bats, Zaha's shots location is very odd this season

  6. PascalCygan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Bottomed. Who would you start?
    A) Rondon (EVE)
    B) Jimenez (che)

    And who would you captain?
    A) Salah
    B) Sterling

    Thanks

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      AB

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        Cheers

    2. Tcheco
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Rondon Salah

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        Thanks

  7. Stoic
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Choose 1 for 31 and 33
    A) A. Smith
    B) Diop

    Have Fab in goal

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      A

    2. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      I went Diop, though I have Boruc in goal.

      1. Stoic
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        Playing him GW 33 ? Or selling him ?
        Smith has Burnley has home in 33... that's tempting

        1. PascalCygan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 23 days ago

          I needed someone to play this week as well as 31 so I think I might just have to take Diop’s Chelsea fixture on the chin. Fixtures-wise and the fact you have Fab, maybe Smith is best.

          1. Stoic
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 23 days ago

            Yeah fair enough

  8. Davido989
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Lol I managed to down vote a comment up voting it? Typed a comment, clicked 'Post' and clicked the upvote button before the comment was posted.

  9. space
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    I was going to captain Salah, but now leaning towards Vardy as the best option. I suspect there's a good chance of Salah being subbed off early with the Bayern match only three days later.

    1. Firminooooo
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Lets go and have a paaaaarty!

  10. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    1. So, did we get any indication as to whether Guaita would be back in goal for Palace?

    2. Replacement for Button (and 31/33 gk)? Money not an issue for these choices.
    A) Boruc (NEW, BUR)
    B) Fabianski (HUD, Che)
    C) Heaton (LEI, Bou)

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      2A if nailed imo

    2. MMN
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      I went Button > Boruc.

      Guaita will start I think, but not sure which of the two I should play this week ...

      https://www.football.london/crystal-palace-fc/players/crystal-palace-news-hennessey-guaita-15912769

      1. Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        Definitely Guaita if he starts

        1. MMN
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 23 days ago

          But Hudd fail to score every 2 games

  11. Hy liverpool
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Captain
    A. Mane
    B. Vardy
    C. Hazard
    D. Sterling

    Leaning towards C

    1. MMN
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      D from those, C would be one of my last options with Wolves not being so leaky and Haz not exactly on fire.

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        Cheers

  12. Riders of Yohan
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Start 1:

    A) Digne (new)
    B) Jiminez (che)

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      B

      1. Riders of Yohan
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        Thanks

  13. Wetdream
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Start Wan B or Pereira ??

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Perreira is going to troll.. Might get attacking return

  14. Davido989
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Hmm, Arsenal - United combined XI is quite tricky

    deGea
    Bellerin Sokratis Lindelof Kolasinac
    Ramsey Torreira Pogba
    Rashford Lacazette Martial

    Would be mine I think.

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      DDG
      Bellerin Baily Lindelof Shaw
      Herrera torrera
      Pogba
      Rashford Martial
      Auba

      1. Davido989
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        I reckon I'm a better CB than Bailly. He is dreadful.

        1. Hy liverpool
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 23 days ago

          Better than sokratis at least

        2. Fpl Richie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 23 days ago

          Not sure I like either, but its true Lindelöf is the man in form.

    2. JIMMY TUGGINS
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Says a lot that Lindelof is the only CB I'd really wanna play from both clubs.

      1. Davido989
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        Yeah same for me. Sokratis probably the least worst from the rest. Or maybe Smalling, who is alright if he doesn't need to play out from the back.

        1. JIMMY TUGGINS
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 23 days ago

          I'd go Smalling but I wouldn't be happy about it. I think him, Jones and Bailly are all pretty average to bordering on useless at times. The latter two are more prone to bafflingly brainless mistakes.

  15. Don Kloppeone
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Last RP. Think I’ll go with the majority decision as I just can’t decide!

    Jota, Jimi >
    A) Brooks this week, Vardy next (no LEI vs FUL)
    B) Maddison this week, King/ Wilson/ max 7.7 next

    1. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      A

  16. some witty pun
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    A) Robertson + Brooks
    or
    B) Azpilicueta + Fraser?

    Building for GW31 + GW33, FH32

  17. MMN
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Assuming it matters, who to start?

    A) Guaita (BHA)

    B) Boruc (hud)

    1. FDMS All Starz
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Home team I think so A

  18. _Gunner
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Have 1 FT, what to do? FH in 31, WC in 32

    Ederson
    Luiz Robertson AWB
    Salah Mane’ Son Pogba
    Rondon Jimenez Rashford

    Subs: Hamer Neves Kolasinac Bennett*

  19. Forza Juventus
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Hi guys, the only player i'm looking to bring in this week is King.

    I'm having some reservations because of Wilson's return, should i just pull the trigger or am i right to be unsure?

    Next week's planned transfers will be the same regardless (team value not relevant in this case etc.). It seems dumb not to include him for Huddersfield too, but worried that for 31 and 33 maybe he isn't the ideal candidate from Bournemouth specifically.

    Thoughts?

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Same problem here. I am thinking about bringing in a mid now, because cannot decide. Wilson might even start already this week. Probably not, but stranger things have happened.

    2. JIMMY TUGGINS
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Him and Wilson were starting together anyway when both were fit.

      1. Forza Juventus
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 23 days ago

        Yep, but i feel like King's output has been much less when paired with Wilson than without. Could be wrong, but it definitely has felt that way. Hence the uncertainty. He also has a lot of mins in his legs, and may be due a rest. But that's neither here nor there as it's hard to predict accurately.

  20. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Best mud for 6.3 or less for the coming weeks?

    1. FDMS All Starz
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Mid*

    2. some witty pun
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Seems like Fraser/Brooks

    3. lugs
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Pedro

  21. Winners900
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Salah vs Aguero for the captainsy

    My math says that if we are expected Aguero to get at least 80-81 min we should go for Aguero. Thats the borderline.

    Did not make it any easier..

    1. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      What's so special about 81 minutes?

    2. Numb
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Can’t see that many minutes.

  22. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Which is better?

    A) Bednarek —> A.Smith (start Jota & bench Doherty)

    B) Jota —> Brooks (start Doherty bench Bednarek)

  23. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Best move here? Planning to FH32, WC34.

    A) Ings -> King (bench Camarasa)
    B) Kolasinac -> Luiz

    Fabianski
    TAA, Pereira, Kolasinac
    Salah, Mane, Siggy, FAnderson, Camarasa
    Vardy, Higuain

    Steele, Doherty, Holebas, Ings
    Bank 2.0m, 1FT

  24. Malkmus
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    A'noon all. GTG? Going FH32:

    Fab (Hamer)
    TAA - WB - Luiz
    Salah - Mane - Pog - Anderson
    Kun (c) - Rash - King

    Subs - Doherty, Billing, Bennett

    Ta !

  25. cescpistols1
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Best option only for this GW?

    A. Pogba -> Mane, and play Jimenez
    B. Stephens -> Brooks, play Pogba and bench Jimenez

  26. WhySoSerious?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Pogba to Mane or save transfer?

    Thanks!

    1. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      I'd do the move.

    2. frenchfries
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      No right answer i think for me. Coin toss. Mane got the fixture, and home fixture. But arsenal cant keep cleansheet, and ManUnited have been great away.

  27. frenchfries
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    For this week, will do the other transfer next week:
    A) Son-> Hazard
    B) Rashford->Vardy

    1. spyda12001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      B for sure. Son vs Southampton is too juicy for me.

    2. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Rather do B this week.

    3. frenchfries
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      Thanks, had the same thinking. As i kept him for this fixture and not moving him for Hazard last week. Might aswell follow through

    4. Ruinenlust
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 23 days ago

      I have the same dilemma lol

  28. Freshy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Surprised Boruc didn't rise this week.
    Am I missing anything/

  29. Daghe Munegu
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Smeichel
    VVD Luiz Shaw
    Salah Sterling Mané Anderson XXX
    Higuain Jimenez

    XXX= Brooks or Madison ?

  30. Nightf0x
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 23 days ago

    Up till gw33?

    A) 3rd liv player? Mane or robbo
    B) clyne or chilwell?