Last call for budget strikers

Last Call for Budget Strikers

I need a cheap third striker who will score well for the remainder of the season.  And I’m guessing I’m not alone among FPL managers.  I don’t have a crystal ball to tell you who will play that role best for the final three gameweeks, but I put out the casting call and we’ve had 25 games over the last 12 days to serve as auditions. I’m considering this my most important transfer decision until I start setting up a new team during summer holidays in August.

IT’S ALL ABOUT SALAH

If you don’t fancy FPL’s most expensive player in your midfield – that’s Liverpool top goal-scorer Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) – you could probably stop reading now.  But if you want to pair Salah with Sergio Aguero (£11.8m) and aren’t ready to give up your other spendy midfielders from Man City or Spurs or Liverpool’s second-best goal scorer Sadio Mané (£10.0m), it’s going to mean going cheaper elsewhere.  This could help even if you’re going with the “No Salah” approach but need to squeeze a million or two pounds out for your front line to spend elsewhere.

I think my team is pretty well balanced after playing my GW34 Wildcard chip, but I’d been planning on bringing Liverpool players back in after the Double Gameweek 35 for their final three games.  I’m still about 20 points behind my mini-league rival and I’m not giving up on finishing first there or cracking the Top 20K overall (Top 10K may be a bridge too far).  I have my eyes on a certain Egyptian midfielder who plays Huddersfield at home on Friday and the Triple Captain chip is calling his name.

A strong finish by Salah and my Man City trio (now that they’re out European football and focused on the England title race) would give me a good shot at mini-league glory.  Sure, Salah could troll me and the Liverpool points could go more to Mane or Bobby Firmino (£9.3m) or their defenders, but why not bet on the player who was the first (and only) man to break the 300-point barrier last season and who is locked in the race for the Golden Boot.  I’m willing to take a hit to bring him in even though I could get Mane or Firmino with a free transfer this week.  They’re not Salah, and Salah’s starting to heat up, with attacking returns in five of his last six (although not quite the double-digit hauls we’ve come to expect).

ENTER THE BUDGET STRIKER

To afford an upgrade to Salah in the midfield and keep the other big hitters in my team for the remainder of the season, I need to swap Alexandre Lacazette (£9.4m) for a budget striker costing £7.5m or less.  I like Lacazette, but with Europa League rotation concerns and less appealing away fixtures for Arsenal, I’m prepared to move him on.  You might feel the same way if your team has Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.9m) or Jamie Vardy (£9.0m, tough fixtures but good form) or Romelu Lukaku (£10.8m, Man United implosion).  My current third striker is Raul Jiménez (£6.9m) and I’m happy to roll with him for the rest of the season despite not coming away with any attacking returns in this double gameweek.  Aguero and Jiménez are well-owned among top FPL players for a reason.

The final slot up front shouldn’t be that hard to fill, but it is.  In a year when so many budget strikers have looked good at various times during the season, it’s now harder than ever to sort out the remaining options.  Perhaps the form, underlying stats and fixtures point to a clear choice.  I’m using the FPL website as well as some of the FFS member’s area tools to weigh the options.  I’m looking for good form, decent fixtures, reliable starts, and a cheap price tag.  If you’ve read this far, maybe you are too.

THE CONTENDERS

Let’s get right to the stats…

From recent attacking returns and underlying stats, there’s a pretty clear group emerging (although, perhaps surprisingly, Jimenez slides by more on his terrific season-long form than what he’s done lately).   Three pairs of strikers stick out: from Bournemouth (Callum Wilson at £6.7m and Josh King at £6.5m), from Newcastle (Ayoze Perez at £6.1m and Solomon Rondon at £5.9m), and more surprisingly from Burnley (Chris Wood at £6.3m and Ashley Barnes at £5.6m).  Two players frequently mentioned in Best Cheap Striker conversations earlier in the season – Aleksander Mitrovic (£6.3m) and Wilfried Zaha (£6.8m) – also look like decent options along with (remember him) Domenic Calvert-Lewin (£5.4m) in a resurgent Everton side.  And Marcus Rashford (£7.4m) suddenly isn’t the obvious choice I thought he would be.  Back in March when I planned my wildcard (with a spreadsheet that’s more detailed than I’d like to admit), I was eyeing Rashford for the two juicy Man United fixtures to close the season against Huddersfield and Cardiff.  Based on the Red Devils’ current form, not so much.

CONCLUSION

Within this group of potential season saviors, there’s no obvious choice.  Will I get nostalgic for the mid-season form of Mitrovic or Marco Arnautovic (£6.7m) or take a gamble on Southampton’s good fixtures with Shane Long (£4.6m) or Danny Ings (£5.4m)?  Those players can deliver a quick goal or brace when the time is right but only Mitrovic really interests me… if Championship-bound Fulham come to play despite relegation.  Rashford still might be the one, but I’m starting to think Zaha or even Wood could be a good option (my mini-league rival has Rashford).   Bournemouth play away twice and you never know if the goals will come from Wilson or King or at all.  Perez is on fire, but he has one away goal all year, Miguel Almiron just went out for the season with an injury, and their only remaining home game is against Liverpool.  Andre Gray (£6.0m) is playing well but what about when Troy Deeney (£5.9m) is back from suspension in GW37?

One last thing to consider is price.  All of these picks are £7.5m or below, but if you reach down closer to £6.0m you have more funds to upgrade your fourth midfielder or a defender.  The sub-£6.0m options allow for even bigger upgrades that might mean triple Liverpool or getting Paul Pogba (£8.6m) back for the final two games if Man United can turn it around and fight hard for a top-four finish.  If you go all the way down to Long you could keep him as a first sub and maybe field a 4-4-2 with a fearsome foursome in the midfield (Salah, Mane, Raheem Sterling, and Heung-Min Son).

The fact is… there are plentiful options.  All I know right now is that this West Ham fan will not be transferring in Andy Carroll (£5.4m) and using the triple captain chip on him.  Because he’s injured.

Comment below on which cheap strikers you like best for your lineup or which one(s) you’re bringing in for the last few games.  And good luck to all during the exciting final weeks of the FPL season plus a big GET WELL SOON to @FFScout_Joe.

Posted by FPLephant