Feeling the pressure to finalize your team this week? I know I am. I’ve been stressing about my strikers not looking as strong as I’d like because of big money spent elsewhere in my team. And you know what… I’m not going to worry about it anymore. I don’t see the point in getting too caught up in trying to guess which budget forward I’ll need for the start of the season because there are so many unknowns right now. In the five seasons I’ve played FPL, I haven’t seen such an unsettled class of players as with this year’s budget (or “value”) strikers. In a few weeks we’ll have loads more information about the £7.5m-and-under crowd where some real fantasy gems will emerge.
Yes, there are the established high scorers and Golden Boot winners available, but at high prices that may scare off many managers who see better value than normal in the defense and midfield this year. Many on this site are planning around three or more premium defenders along with last season’s top two overall fantasy scorers – midfielders Mohamed Salah (£12.5m, 38% ownership) and Raheem Sterling (£12.0m, 30% owned). If you have both of them and four solid starters in your backline, you’re likely spending about £50m on those six players alone! Finding value picks to fill out your front line then becomes all the more important, but do we know who those value picks will be?
Trying to find the lower-priced gems at the striker position this season is going to take a little while. Gameweeks 1-4 will be a crucial proving ground for many strikers aiming for the magical 20-goal mark this season. Some established teams are still settling on their starting front lines. The newly promoted teams have successful Championship strikers, but we don’t know how they’ll adjust to life in the Premier League. And some solid mid-table teams have splashed the cash for a big summer signing from abroad, but they too aren’t a sure bet. Yet.
Good enough for now?
Below I break down some of the emerging striker targets, but the ultimate conclusion is this: the position seems more unsettled than in recent years and that means many managers would benefit from a patient approach. That means picking known starters and staying flexible. I don’t want to be forced into an early wildcard, especially when a “mini-wildcard” (using a hit a two free transfers) could be enough to upgrade your front line after the first month of the season. To do that without more hits you’ll want to think about initial team structure now. For example, with one big-name striker and two £4.5m or £5.0m scrubs, you’ll struggle to upgrade the scrubs without mangling your midfield or decimating your defense.
A brief word on spendy strikers
I’m not going to discuss the obvious choices up front because if you want one of these players you should just go ahead get them in your team. They cost a lot, but they are also proven FPL point scorers. I’m talking about the likes of Harry Kane (£11.0m, 28.2%), Sergio Aguero (£12.0m, 20.7%), Jamie Vardy (£9.0m, 10.5%), Bobby Firmino (£9.5m, 10.0%) and Arsenal’s dynamic duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m, 22.7%) and Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m, 7.2%). I might start the season without any of them, but I am likely to have a better value pick from Bournemouth or Wolves. There’s a reason why we see a combined ownership of roughly 40% for the two forwards from each of those teams: Callum Wilson (£8.0m, 20.8%) and Josh King (£6.5m, 20.1%) or Raul Jimenez (£7.5m, 23.3%) and Diogo Jota (£6.5m, 15.3%).
There’s gold in these lineups… but where to find it?
Undoubtedly some new budget gems will emerge early this season and I reckon we’ll know a lot more in a few weeks. We’ll need to sift through the early results and underlying stats in order to find that rare and most valuable FPL commodity… a budget player under £7.5m that can get you between 150-200 points over the course of a season. I’ve divided up the remaining 13 teams and their strikers into four categories. I’m not ready to put any of them into my starting lineup just yet, but I’m watching closely.
A little less competition, a little more action
A handful of teams have the luxury of multiple proven strikers, which is a good problem to have if you’re a real-life Premier League manager but less so for us playing FPL.
Watford’s Gerard Deulofeu (£6.5m, 8.1%) is the fashionable pick… known for big points hauls (especially against weaker sides), but will his minutes be more consistent this year when he still has to compete with team captain Troy Deeney (£6.5m, 3.2%) and proficient goal scorer Andre Grey (£6.0m, 0.9%).
Burnley has three decent options too: Chris Wood (£6.5m, 1.7%), Ashley Barnes (£6.5m, 0.9%), and former West Brom hitman Jay Rodriguez (£6.0m, 0.5%) who had the most goals for the Clarets in the preseason. Each is capable of being the club’s top striker, but who will it be? Their low ownership reflects that many managers are looking elsewhere for now.
At Brighton, will Glenn Murray (£6.0m, 4.1%) start consistently after he turns 36 in September? He logged over 2500 minutes last year (more than Deulofeu, Lacazette or Marcus Rashford), but recently the Seagulls added speedy 22-year-old Brentford striker Neal Maupay (£6.0m, 0.2%).
Chelsea is a bit of a surprise on this list, and they have nothing but budget-friendly FPL players this year that could be real bargains once new manager Frank Lampard makes clear what his preferred lineup will be. Tammy Abraham (£7.0m, 2.4%) is the early favourite to be the #1 striker, but at the same price there’s also Olivier Giroud (£7.0m, 2.6%) and former Palace loanee Michy Batshuayi (£7.0m, 0.9%).
Manchester United doesn’t really fit here, but also nowhere else. Constant rumors about big moves in and out of the club mean the lineup remains unsettled. Marcus Rashford (£8.5m, 17.0%) is the surest pick but he’s edging closer to the high-priced bracket. FPL midfielder Anthony Martial (£7.5m, 4.5%) has been playing up front in preseason while want-away Romelu Lukaku (£8.5m, 2.4%) is absent and could still leave with a new striker possibly coming in. While a talented youngster, Mason Greenwood (£4.5m, 14.5%) is probably more fool’s gold than real gold right now; he’ll need consistent starts (or goals) to justify more than a fantasy bench spot.
New recruits, high expectations
Everton, West Ham and Newcastle all paid record or near-record transfer fees this past month for what should be starting strikers. Each is coming from outside the Premier League, but if they’re the focal point of the attack we should be very interested.
Everton’s recent signing Moise Kean (£7.0m, 3.2%) from Juventus has fans excited… at least more excited than they were for Domenic Calvert-Lewin (£6.5m, 2.7%). The fixtures are kind, but there are still rumors flying of a push by the Toffees to sign FPL midfielder Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m, 24.8%) from Palace.
West Ham’s key late-summer addition was Sebastien Haller (£7.5m, 5.8%), a proven scorer from Bundesliga’s Eintracht Frankfurt who is perhaps too close in price to Wilson or Jimenez to get much initial love before his Premier League debut against Manchester City.
Newcastle has brought in the Brazilian forward Joelinton (£6.0m, 2.7%) from Hoffenheim and the Magpies’ previous top scorers departed for Leicester and the Chinese Super League.
Promoted sides need time
Betting early on newly promoted sides is risky. Wolves in 2018-2019 proved to be more an exception, but it’s yet to be seen how last year’s top scorers in England’s second tier will do at the highest level.
Aston Villa has a record-signing in Brazilian Wesley (£6.0m, 1.4%) who comes by way of Club Brugge in Belgium.
Norwich City’s Teemu Pukki (£6.5m, 3.6%) was the top scorer in the Championship last season with 29 goals.
Sheffield United has an experienced striker in Billy Sharp (£6.0m, 1.3%) who scored 23 goals in the Championship last year and 87 over the past four seasons.
Mystery men
These two teams might have the biggest question marks up front. For now, I’m only considering their players for a cheap bench spot, but all are capable of scoring goals.
Crystal Palace may yet lose Zaha to a compelling transfer offer, and the goals will have to come from some combination of Connor Wickham (£4.5m, 3.5%), former Swansea striker Jordan Ayew (£5.0m, 2.2%), and Christian Benteke (£6.0m, 1.0%).
Meanwhile, Southampton will rely on the dangerous but oft-injured Danny Ings (£6.0m, 2.5%), fastest-goal-ever scorer Shane Long (£5.0m, 6.2%), new signing Che Adams (£6.0m, 1.6%), and super-sub Charlie Austin (£6.0m, 0.4%).
