Spot the Differential
20 December 2019 1302 comments
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Whenever we draw closer to the midpoint of a Fantasy Premier League season, a standard template team tends to emerge.

This, in turn, means that it becomes more difficult to make up ground in our mini-leagues and places more importance on having a differential or two in our starting line-ups who can make a considerable impact.

In fact, last Gameweek saw three of the top seven FPL points-scorers of the round having ownership of 5% or less.

Rest assured, there’s still time to find some hidden gems. These players can be key assets, especially during this time of the season when there is a short turnaround time between games.

With that said, here are three low-owned players that may be of interest to you over the next four Gameweeks:

Lucas Moura

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £7.0m
  • GW18-21 fixtures: CHE | BHA | nor | sou

At this moment in time, when it comes to Tottenham Hotspur’s attacking assets from a Fantasy perspective, you will automatically think of Harry Kane (£10.9m), Son Heung-min (£10.1m) and Dele Alli (£8.7m). However, Lucas Moura (£7.0m) is flying under the radar and rivalling that trio for attacking returns.

Under Jose Mourinho he has become revitalised, having scored three goals in his last three Premier League appearances where he has appeared for more than 70 minutes.

Among midfielders priced at £7.0m or less, he is currently ranked joint-third for goals scored, which is all the more remarkable when considering that he has only played three full league matches since August.

While he has become a regular starter of late, it can’t be ignored that he is often substituted, as was the case with his playing time under Mourinho’s predecessor.

But when we quantify Moura’s output we can see that he is averaging an attacking return for every 120 minutes played since August, which is more than respectable for an inexpensive midfielder.

You would expect him to feature in all four matches over the festive period (whether it be from the start or as a substitute), which includes fixtures against teams that have struggled for clean sheets this season.

With Moura’s form, you wouldn’t put it past him to add to his Fantasy returns, even if he’s prone to missing out on bonus points.

Neal Maupay

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.8m
  • GW18-21 fixtures: SHU | tot | BOU | CHE

With three goals in his last three games, it’s still somewhat surprising that Neal Maupay (£5.8m) has single-digit ownership levels.

He may not have featured regularly at the start of the season but it’s fair to say that he’s now established himself as Brighton’s main centre-forward.

Seven goals in 17 appearances to date is more than respectable for a player that hadn’t played in the Premier League before August.

His credentials as a budget forward option are also commendable. During the last two Gameweeks, Maupay is ranked second for attempts on goal and joint-second for penalty area touches among forwards priced at £6.0m or less. In fact, he’s had more goal attempts than the likes of Tammy Abraham (£8.0m) and Raul Jimenez (£7.5m) since Gameweek 16.

To add to his viability, three of Brighton’s next four league games will be at home.

The Seagulls’ home record since Gameweek 1 is only 13th-best in the league at the moment, with Graham Potter’s side scoring less than two goals per game at the Amex.

But we shouldn’t read too much into that, as Brighton are, in fact, getting better with their finishing, having scored ten league goals in their last five matches on the south coast.

Maupay presents a very good opportunity to invest in a player that is performing well and doesn’t cost over the odds. He may not score in all of the Seagulls’ festive matches but the chances are that, when Albion do find the back of the net, he will most likely have some sort of involvement.

James Tomkins

  • FPL ownership: 0.5%
  • Price: £5.0m
  • GW18-21 fixtures: new | WHU | sou | nor

With the exception of a handful of must-haves in FPL this season, consistent returns from defenders have been somewhat lacking since August.

But with four Fantasy returns in his last four games, it’s surprising to think that James Tomkins (£5.0m) is still owned by fewer than 1% of FPL managers.

Tomkins has started every match for Crystal Palace from Gameweek 9 onwards, having missed the start of the season due to injury.

His form is impressive at the moment, with 85% of his points having been scored since Gameweek 14.

Crystal Palace’s next four games will be against teams currently placed in the bottom half of the table, which further enhances their chances of additional clean sheets in the short term.

However, it also remains to be seen whether Crystal Palace can cope over the busy period when stalwarts like Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m) are injured.

Furthermore, the chances are that most seasoned FPL managers have already signed Martin Kelly (£4.4m) at a cheaper price, which makes Tomkins less appealing (and explains his ownership levels). Understandably, many of us will have a limited desire to double up on the Eagles’ defenders, despite their clean sheet potential of late.

But it can be argued that Tomkins offers slightly more.

Kelly has only registered three attacking Fantasy returns since 2016/17, whereas Tomkins has seven goals and two assists to his name during the same period. Maybe he’s due another goal?

In any case, he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as one of the best performing budget defenders in FPL at present.

1,302 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. FPL Marc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    I'm surprised by all the love for Son this week. Should I bring either him or Rashford in? Or roll the transfer so both come in GW19?

    Sterling, Alli, Grealish, Hayden (Mane)
    Vardy, Jimenez (c), Abraham

    1. THE Wild Rover
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      If you are surprised at all the love why do you want to bring him in?

      1. Pinturicchio10
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Baaaa

      2. FPL Marc
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        The love for this week. Chelsea aren't particularly bad.

        1. THE Wild Rover
          • 15 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          Defensively they are. If you won't lose a lot of money I'd do Mane to KDB and bench Hayden

          1. FPL Marc
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            Just don't want to sell Mane if he's soon coming in.

            Too many of my transfers have already been wasted on flip-flopping between Sterling and KDB, or getting Martial in/out.

    2. trinzoo
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      If you don't have a lot of money tied in Mane, I would make a transfer.

    3. Offside Trapattoni
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      With Spurs upcoming fixtures I suppose many just want him in for fear of being priced out.

    4. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Son

  2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    If you want both of them, might aswell bring one in now and bench Hayden I suppose? Son

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Reply fail

  3. popcoin
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Play one:

    Aurier (CHE)
    Maddison (mci)
    Abraham (che)

    Considering I am very confident all of them will score 2 points.

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Abra (tot)

      1. popcoin
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        woops! thanks

    2. Pinturicchio10
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Abraham

    3. popcoin
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Reasoning: stats and eye test are very conclusive that Tammy goes missing in big games. Maddison has got returns in big games but not against a Man City style midfield domination. Chelsea score away goals.

    4. SADIO SANÉ
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Tammy, Tottenham haven't exactly been racking up clean sheets

    5. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Aurier

    6. lindeg
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      play tammy

  4. Brosstan
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Raise your hands Maupay owners o/

    1. THE Wild Rover
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      o
      /\

    2. Jafoole_88
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Chairman Mao-paaaay

      1. Brosstan
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Lol

  5. Slitherene
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Pope
    Kelly Baldock Aurier
    KdB Zaha Sterling Grealish
    Rashford Ings Vardy

    Who to (C)?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I think there might be some sort of poll on this...

      Rash or Kev of yours.

    2. Baganuva Hatty
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Rash

  6. KUNingas
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Bench one

    A) Kelly (new)
    B) Lund (bha)
    C) Targett (SOU)
    D) Rico (BUR)
    E) Maddison (mci)

    1. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      C

      1. KUNingas
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks. Currently on E

        1. Slitherene
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          I think Ings will score

          1. KUNingas
            • 10 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            Yeah, man is in form

          2. Offside Trapattoni
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            I'm putting the armband on Ings this GW

    2. JoeSoap
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      C or E probably C

  7. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Guaita
    Soy Lundstram Rico
    Son KDB Alli Mount
    Vardy Tammy Jimenez

    Button Dendo Tomori TAA

    1ft and 2.6itb

    Which one would you do?

    A. Tomori > Burn/Targett
    B. Mount > Grealish/Rich/Martial (will have to play Soy)

    1. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Tomori to Kelly?

  8. Tinmen
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone going Sterling captain?

    1. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Vc

  9. VinMar
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Guaita

    Aurier -- Lunners -- Kelly -- Rico

    KDB -- Maddison -- Alli

    Vardy -- Jimenez (C) -- Tammy

    (Mcgovern, Hayden, Mane, Robbo)

    Anything worth a hit ?

    1. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Nope

    2. linkafu
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Alli (C)

  10. AC Pilkington
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    who would more scared of not owning vs Leicester ?

    TAA or Mane

    1. DAZZ
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Neither, score draw 2 blanks i think, 1-1 i reckon, Not worth owning LFC assets over next 2 with the blank

    2. SADIO SANÉ
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      M

    3. Ask Yourself
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      TAA

  11. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    All I want for Christmas is massive green arrows.

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Have you been a good boy (or girl?) this year?

  12. Lav
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Who would you drop to fund Tammy to Rashford?

    A. TAA
    B. Maddison
    C. Jimenez

    1. FirMinaMiMo
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. KUNingas
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. theodosios
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    4. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      TAA if no value tied up

    5. JoeSoap
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A for me though Maddy to Grealish might work over the next two weeks if you don't have him

      1. Lav
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        That was going to be my initial move, but I have been torn all week.

        1. JoeSoap
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          One of my options, the yellow card situation is putting me of

    6. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Won’t you want Tammy mid week? Rashford blank on the road and then up against Bruce’s back 10

  13. FirMinaMiMo
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Captain options!!!
    A)Rash
    B) Son
    C) Jimmy

    Any opinions lads 🙂

    1. KUNingas
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Check captain poll

      1. FirMinaMiMo
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Its rash 🙂

    2. JoeSoap
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Hope to have all three after transfers. Son more reliable. Tough call.

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Shon

    4. YuvalFPL
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      head since son, heart says big raul. sleep on it...

    5. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      B, C .... A

  14. KUNingas
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    TAA -> Kelly easy move not to burn FT? Could make opposite way next week

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      What price did you get him at?

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      No other options? What’s the team?

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Get PVA? Nailed and more attacking

  15. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    For three Manc city again.

    Only VVD left from pool.

    1. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Same here, I'm stuck with Matip though.

  16. JoeSoap
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    A. Mane/Mousset>Ali/Rash
    B. Robby/DD>Aurier/Grealish
    C. Robby/Maddy/Mousset>Aurier/Grealish/Rash (-4)

    If I get rid of Mane won't bring him/Salah back until GW20 maybe later as he may get rested.

    Pope
    Kelly, Lund, Rico
    Dendo, Maddy, KDB, Son
    Vardy, Jimmy, Mousset
    Gazza, Robby, Mane, Soyu

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A most up

      1. JoeSoap
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks. A has most potential over next few weeks.

  17. No_Mo_Salah?
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    1 ft - Abraham to Rashford or save?

    1. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Save

    2. lindeg
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      big save, rashford is this seasons biggest trap

      1. trinzoo
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        lol, 2nd top scoring forward, 5th top scoring player at the middle of the season, the cheapest of them - how can be a trap? Comments like yours are traps.

        1. lindeg
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          striker playing oop at left mid, cant finish in the box, only scores when counter attacking against posession based teams (upcoming teams are all happy to sit deep)

          his upside is he is on penalties but even so, he has missed 2/6

          1. Bennerman
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            If you're going to be this one-eyed at least have the courtesy to add 'imo'

            1. lindeg
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 7 months ago

              everything i mention is backed up by stats, you are basically banking on him getting counter attacks against deep sitting teams or scoring penalties, seems like a disaster pick to me

              1. Bennerman
                • 7 Years
                6 years, 7 months ago

                So you are saying that it is statistically true that Marcus Rashford has never scored from inside the box and all 50+ of his goals have been on the counter-attack?

                1. lindeg
                  • 7 Years
                  6 years, 7 months ago

                  no, im only referring to this seasons stats

                  1. Bennerman
                    • 7 Years
                    6 years, 7 months ago

                    That would also mean, though, that all 14 goals this season have been on the counter-attack yet also scored from outside the box. Obviously not statistically true, and would be a weird kind of goal anyway.

                    I think it is healthier (on here and wider world) if people are more even-handed in their observations and less dogmatic.

                    Or, if it's an opinion then just frame it as an opinion, fine.

                    1. lindeg
                      • 7 Years
                      6 years, 7 months ago

                      when united try to break down teams, he shoots a lot from outside the box which rarely results in a goal (he scored like that v tot on a huge mistake by gazza), he does not shoot a lot in the box when breaking down teams, but when he does, he hasnt been clinical

                      i do agree that he is a great asset for fixtures where counter attacks seem likely, but i do not see the next 3 as such, therefore i think he is a trap

                      next good fixture is arsenal in gw22

                      1. Bennerman
                        • 7 Years
                        6 years, 7 months ago

                        Reasonable points, much more reasonably put.

                        He will likely get 25+ goals this season imo and I personally think he can score all types of goals. Though obviously on the counter he excels.

                        I don't have him in my team.

  18. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Dump ings or Tammy for rashford?

    1. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Ings after this week

  19. trinzoo
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Anything new on Martin? Wondering if keep him on a WC.

    1. claretparrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      If you don't intend to play him, go Button as his price is way less likely to drop

      1. trinzoo
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Button is 4.0 and on -76 (fplstatistics), I bought Martin for 4.0 and he is 4.1 on just -2, I can get 1 drop without losing value

  20. Hybrid.power
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Ah Christmas, the memory of benching Digne for this two goals last year still haunts me

    1. YuvalFPL
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      nightmares

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Have you changed your ways as a result Ebenezer?

  21. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Best attacking trio before i WC in gw20 (so only looking at 2 gw options)

    A: Kelly + Son + Martial/Rich/Grealish + Tammy (in gw19)
    B: Kelly + Sterling + Grealish + Tammy (in gw19)
    C: Maguire + Sterling + Pulisic + Tammy (in gw19)
    D: Kelly + Son + Pulisic + Kane (in gw19)

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

  22. Godfrey
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    I consider Joshua King as a option....

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Good

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      He’s an option. Not a very good one. But an option

      1. Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        This

    3. Lumberjack
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Check the tweets. Might be injured.

  23. YuvalFPL
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Pick now or forever hold your peace:

    A) Richarlison
    B) Martial
    C) Dele

    Grealish and D James have missed the cut. FYI, I have Son.

    Help a confused and indecisive brother out...

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      C. Or Grealish

      1. YuvalFPL
        • 15 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        I really don't trust an Aston Villa attacker

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          C then. By far

          1. YuvalFPL
            • 15 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            thanks. even if I already have son?

            1. RAFA THE GAFFA
              • 10 Years
              6 years, 7 months ago

              What’s son got to do with it? 🙂

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Rich if not for life, just for the holidays.

      1. YuvalFPL
        • 15 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        I'm leaning towards this. Spurs double up with Dele could backfire.

    3. JoeSoap
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A could work for a few weeks and they have good fixtures coming up, however he often disappoints. Not B for me. Probably getting C myself and like Grealish but not his four yellow cards. So C for me.

      1. YuvalFPL
        • 15 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        sensible.

  24. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Didn't realise Liverpool had such a poor fixture run. Yes they are good so they will win, but are they going to put 3+ goals past most of these?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      No

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Probably not, but they do seem to be getting better if anything.

  25. ClassiX
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Hi all - I've been off the site for a week, so I'm sure this has been asked and answered, but who is the most likely rotation risk in the Pool side with the acquisition of Minamino? Or is he another Wijnaldum/Ox/Milner/Henderson option for Klopp?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      None PL wise

      1. ClassiX
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Big Shaq, Lallana, Origi etc.

      1. ClassiX
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers

  26. Lav
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    With 6.3m to replace TAA, is Aurier the popular choice?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Yes

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I'm doing it

      1. Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Can't speak for the other 7 million odd people though.

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Get PVA? Nailed and more attacking

  27. dbeck
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Pick two:

    1. Maupay
    2. Grealish
    3. Jota

    Other attackers are:

    Son Dele KDB Salah
    Vardy

    1. YuvalFPL
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      1 and 2 look good.

      I like Jimenez a lot though.

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      1 and 2

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      For this week? 2 and 3 if you already have them.

  28. Lumberjack
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Who would you get in for Tomori?

    A - Soy
    B - Aurier

    Already have Rico/Lund/Kelly (and TAA)

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      B

      1. Lumberjack
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers!

  29. Gini's Wish
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Forgive me for not having him already, he has haunted me before and he's haunting me again.

    1FT
    Mane > KDB
    worth it?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Yes. As long as you have a plan to get Mané back

  30. Gini's Wish
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    rest of team:

    Pope Button
    TAA Lund Soy Rico Kelly
    Son Alli Mane Mount Cantwell
    Abra Vardy Jimenez