The Review - GW 23

Greetings everyone! Struggling with your transfer and your triple captaincy choices? The Review is back to hopefully help you make some informed decisions before the first double gameweek of the season:

1) I think it is only fair that we start with Liverpool given all the double gameweek hysteria. I begin from the defence where it is safe to say that Liverpool’s defensive numbers off late have been nothing short of exemplary. Over the past 5 GW’s, Liverpool’s defence is ranked best for shots conceded in the box and xGc (expected goals conceded). Moreover, over this period, they are the only team in the PL to average less than one big chance conceded per game whereas all the other teams in the PL have been conceding big chances at a far more regular clip. This suggests that a double up on the Liverpool defence could also be an effective strategy based on the VORP concept.

2) So, this begs the question, who are the defenders to go for? Trent picks himself as the go to explosive defensive option and I think Robertson has a very solid case if you are looking to double up. Since GW 19, Robertson has been sharing set pieces with Trent and this has had an encouraging impact on Robertson’s creativity. Robertson is now averaging ≈1.8 chances created per game (compared to ≈1.2 previously) and ≈0.6 big chances created per game (compared to ≈0.3 previously) which also means that Robertson is second only to Trent for chances created and big chances created for all PL defenders over this period. Furthermore, after Trent, he is second of all Liverpool defenders for minutes per baseline bonus over this period too meaning that he is likely to get a share of the bonus if Liverpool are to keep a clean sheet.

3) Salah and Mane are on paper the obvious triple captaincy candidates and for good reason too. Liverpool are the in-form team in the PL with the PL for now being their priority, and have little reason to chop and change their combination. Their midfielders are the standout options, and they get extra points per goal and clean sheet which makes them more explosive. Liverpool are probably the only big side Wolves haven’t figured out how to play while West Ham vs Liverpool (particularly if without Fabianski) is a goal glut waiting to happen. Liverpool have on average scored ≈3.4 goals per game over their 5 most recent PL games vs West Ham and West Ham sit top for big chances conceded at home this season.

4) Which one of the two you decide to triple captain depends on what kind of FPL manager you are. Salah has shown more recent form of late and is undeniably the undisputed FPL king while playing at home, but away from home his numbers are far from impressive. This season he has averaged ≈166 minutes per big chance away from home (compared to ≈73 at home) while Mane has averaged ≈97 minutes per big chance away from home (compared to ≈75 at home) which bodes well for Mane given that Liverpool play both their games away. However, Salah has a higher average position, the safety net of penalties behind him and is averaging better for minutes per shots inside the box than Mane in away games (≈33 for Salah compared to Mane’s ≈41).

5) If you are looking for a wildcard pick in the Liverpool attack, then Firmino might be your man. At ≈89 mins per big chance away from home, he actually averages better than both Salah and Mane for goal threat away. This theory that Firmino comes into his own away from home is further supported by the evidence that his minutes per shots inside the box is ≈33, which is on par with Salah and better than that of Mane.

6) Moving on to West Ham, there are not too many options to speak of. Ever since Moyes has taken over, Felipe Andersen was showing signs of renewed confidence and looked to be thriving in the #10 role but now appears to be an injury doubt. Haller is the only one worth considering, as he has been averaging one big chance per game since Moyes has taken over and can consider himself unlucky not to have scored. Defensively they are still all over the place, having conceded 8 big chances in the past 2 games yet they have been fortunate to have conceded just twice. Fixtures after the double gameweek aren’t very kind too, so no West Ham asset looks particularly appealing for now.

7) In my articles this season, I have time and again emphasized on how impressive Leicester’s defensive numbers have been. Their form this season was built on a solid defensive foundation hence it comes as no surprise that the sudden collapse of their defensive numbers has coincided with their loss of form. Since GW 18, Leicester have conceded ≈9.67 shots inside the box per game (vs ≈5.94 pre-GW 18) and ≈2.83 big chances per game (vs ≈1.29 pre-GW 18).

8) Amidst the double gameweek frenzy, it is important not to ignore the remarkable form of Dominic Calvert Lewin. Ever since Carlo Ancelotti has taken over, he is ranked best for shots inside the box and big chances of all players in the game. Everton are only second to Liverpool and Man City for xG (expected goals scored) in this period which reflects their upturn in goal threat hence with 3 more favorable fixtures on the horizon, Calvert Lewin at £6m could be an amazing bargain.

Raw data taken from FFScout with consent. Computations and analysis my own. Thank you for taking the time out to read patiently, I hope you enjoyed the read - feedback awaited! 🙂