Pro Pundit Teams

Learning to stick to my guns in challenging FPL season

When you’re still struggling this far into a Fantasy Premier League season, it can be easy to ask, even now, what went wrong?

I’m currently ranked 910,047 in the world, albeit with 10 players left to play in Gameweek 26.

After a season-high 97,729 rank in Gameweek 3, I haven’t been higher than 506,273 since Gameweek 10.

Even though we’re not at the end of the season yet, and there’s plenty of points to play for, I’ve still been looking back at I could have done differently.

Overthinking

It’s fairly common knowledge that my FPL account was compromised between Gameweek 6 and 7. This resulted in me having to use one of my chips early. I haven’t used that as an excuse, but it is where the overthinking began.

Lundstram benched again as unchanged Sheffield United face Bournemouth

Because John Lundstram (£5.0m) wasn’t £4.0m any more I questioned whether he was still worth a place in my team. I’d have to pay £4.4m, which looking back I have to laugh at how I even questioned it.

He’d even scored 12 points for me the week before. When you see a player like this you buy them, simple. Instead, I looked to try and play the fixtures and looked at defensive rotations that saw me buy Fikayo Tomori (£4.4m) and Issa Diop (£4.4m) instead.

A player listed as a defender, playing in midfield. Genuine attacking threat and clean sheets to boot. In the past there’s no way I’d turn this down, I’m still not sure why I did this year.

Ignoring Form

In Gameweek 23 I wanted a Marcus Rashford (£8.9m) replacement. I need to take money out of my attack to use in defence and looked at both Neal Maupay (£5.8m) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.1m).

The Everton man had scored three goals in the previous four matches, Maupay had one assist.

There wasn’t even anything in the underlying statistics to say that Maupay was the better choice either. Below is Gameweek 19 to 22.

andys-article

14 shots in the box versus just two should have been all I needed to tell me who was the better pick.

Instead, I turned to the fixtures. I don’t think that using fixtures as a basis to bring players in is wrong, but I tried looking too long term and ignored the clear difference in form between the two.

Maupay’s next seven – Aston Villa (home), Bournemouth (away), West Ham (away), Watford (home), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), Wolves (away)

Calvert-Lewin’s next seven – West Ham (away), Newcastle (home), Watford (away), Crystal Palace (home), Arsenal (away), Man United (home), Chelsea (away)

Although the next seven fixtures at the time were better for Maupay, Calvert-Lewin had a nice short-term run and given the form should have been the obvious choice. While long-term picks are nice it’s clear that a mistake was made here – ignoring form, and also the shorter-term fixtures. 

Short Term Transfers

Back in Gameweek 12 I made a fairly big move by taking Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) out as part of an eight-point hit to bring in the in-form Jamie Vardy (£9.8m) and Raúl Jiménez (£7.7m). 

It worked well. Since then Sterling has only hit double figures twice, and has one score of seven outside of that.

This is where tunnel vision kicked in. Because a risky move had worked once it would definitely work again, right?

In Gameweek 18 I wrote an infamous article about why I was taking Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.7m) out for a hit. I gave it a good bit of thought. He had a blank, Leicester (away), Wolves (home), Sheffield United (home), Tottenham Hotspur (away), and Man United (home) to come.

Not the most ideal fixtures, but I didn’t take into account that I’d almost certainly want him back at some point and mostly ignored the fact that Liverpool were the best team in the league, using their full-backs to attack and also had plenty of clean sheet potential. This was a short-term move that didn’t work out.

Going Forward

I think what I’ve learned from the above is that I’ve ignored my own advice of sticking to your game-plan even if things are going wrong.

I haven’t reacted well to doing badly and have been overthinking, ignoring form and making moves that are too short term at times.

I Wildcarded in Gameweek 26.

andys-article 2

I feel I’ve picked a team that fits in better with how I like to play, and eliminates some of the bad decisions I’ve made above.

No Kevin De Bruyne (£10.8m) was a big decision (I owned prior to Wildcarding) and it does feel a little like the Alexander-Arnold call but I feel with Son Heung-min (£10.0m) I’ve made a calculated risk to get a player who I hope can keep up with De Bruyne in the coming weeks at a lower ownership.

Up-front, I’ve picked two players in Jiménez and Roberto Firmino (£9.7m) who have both the form and fixtures. As you can see below both are in the top six forwards over their last four matches for Expected Goal Involvement.

andys-article 3

And while Danny Ings (£7.0m) doesn’t feature there it’s worth noting that he’s played Leicester, Wolves, and Liverpool in the last four fixtures and was rested for most of the match versus Crystal Palace.

I’m expecting him to find form again with the upcoming fixtures.

Conclusion

I think whatever happens from here I’m probably going to have my worst ever finish in FPL.

There’s been some bad luck like the Sadio Mané (£12.2m) Triple Captain in Gameweek 24 but ultimately I’m in this position because of some bad decision-making.

My only hope is that it will allow me to remember how I like to play FPL and what has worked best in the past.

I’m inspired when I see people like Lateriser who make big decisions like betting against Jamie Vardy when the crowd isn’t necessarily thinking the same way, but that’s not how I play the game and I think I need to stick to what I know. 

Become a Member and access our data

Memberships for the rest of the 2019/20 campaign are now available for the discounted price of £9.99 or the monthly price of £2.99.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

924 Comments Post a Comment
  1. FDMS All Starz
    • 4 Years
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    Hoping for another match to be postponed so I get my Lunds pts off the bench

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      It's started !!
      Countless "Lundstram first on my bench"
      😀

    2. BenjoBD
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      which city assets do you have? if you have 3 you might get them anyhow.

      1. FDMS All Starz
        • 4 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        Kdb & Kun(c) doubt they get benched after the break

        1. BenjoBD
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          A week out from Real Madrid with a game away at Leicester inbetween? Against a side they can beat with their reserves at a canter....I wouldn't be so sure about that. I also have Mahrez and part of me hopes that Salah comes in for Aguero as captain because there is literally no chance Aguero starts and makes it past 60 mins if they are 2-3 nil up.

    3. Niho992
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      It s only 7 points. Chill out

      1. FDMS All Starz
        • 4 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        By how things have been turning out this week, 7pts could be huge

  2. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    Glad that GW 26 is still on. My ML captained Aguero, had VC on Salah and I have Salah as my captain. I am fully expecting the mother of hauls from Salah for me and an assist from Kun.

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Don't jinx it 😉

    2. britzdubb
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Jammy Storm Dennis weather

  3. THFC4LIFE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    Saturday and Sunday looking terrible for the weather, more postponements inbound.....

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Wow. Hopefully Spurs & Leicester fixtures go ahead ....

  4. La Roja
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    Dear Sergio,

    Please be nasty..

  5. The 12th Man
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    So SKY plan of Aguero(c) > Salah(c) is gonna cost an extra transfer now unless I forget Salah.

  6. Niho992
    • 1 Year
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    Kun cappers reunite !!!!!!!

    1. BenjoBD
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      for 58 mins and 1 point....

      1. Niho992
        • 1 Year
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        Brace and assist. Get in.

    2. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 7 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      No if you all have Salah as VC

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      I wonder will Pep try to taper him up so he's well eased back in for the big Madrid game:

      West Ham 19th - 30 mins
      Leicester 22nd - 60 mins
      Madrid 22nd - 90 mins

      ???

      1. Niho992
        • 1 Year
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        WHU 90
        Leicester 0
        Madrid 90

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          Oooohhhh - would Pep risk throwing him straight back in with a big 90?? Unlikely he'll go from 0 - 90 so QuickTime given his fitness record

          Id say he'll try ease him in more gently & use West Ham to let him build up a little bit, maybe a nice relaxed 30-ish minutes

          Then build a little bit more vs leicester (maybe only 45 mins instead of 60)

          Then BOOM

          He's primed for Madrid

          1. Goonsquad245
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            14 days, 4 hours ago

            Throwing him straight back in from what? He’ll have had 2.5 weeks since his last game. He’s not injured.

            When he wasn’t playing for Argentina, he’d get 2 week breaks during internationals and start/play 90 following those.

            1. Niho992
              • 1 Year
              14 days, 4 hours ago

              This also. He can start play 70 minutes and get rest.

              Jesus can start both vs WHU and Leicester and be on the bench vs Madrid

            2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              14 days, 4 hours ago

              That was a different Aguero - the guy is coming 32 now & has A LOT of miles on the clock

              It's all about Madrid for Pep - he'll want to use the west ham & Leicester games to have his main man as well primed ( and as SAFELY primed) as possible

              It's just a question of how does he use those two games!

              1. Niho992
                • 1 Year
                14 days, 4 hours ago

                He was 31 last year. Big difference.

                1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  14 days, 4 hours ago

                  Poor guys had such a torrid time with injury over those years, hard to believe he's coming 32 now - one of the all time greats for sure!

              2. Goonsquad245
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                14 days, 4 hours ago

                It was this season/last season.

                Nothing to suggest pep will do that at all. If anything he’s well rested and will just play.

                1. Goonsquad245
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  14 days, 4 hours ago

                  Also half a chance Aguero doesn’t even play Madrid away, depending on how pep wants to set up.

                2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  14 days, 4 hours ago

                  Peps quotes about his priorities in the wake of their league failure were so revealing about where his focus will be for the remainder of the season - it's all about winning the champions league for him so he'll likely want his star striker primed and ready for the big Madrid game

                  It's actually worked out well enough for him given that he can bring Kun back in gradually noe via the west ham & Leicester games, tapering up his minutes to have him ready for the big Madrid show down!

                  1. Goonsquad245
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 3 Years
                    14 days, 4 hours ago

                    Can’t be bothered engaging with your copypasta arguments. We’ll just see what happens next week.

                    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      14 days, 4 hours ago

                      We sure will! Best of luck!

          2. Niho992
            • 1 Year
            14 days, 4 hours ago

            Yup thats logic but i dont believe in logic this season so..

            We will see ofc

          3. Niho992
            • 1 Year
            14 days, 4 hours ago

            Tell me what you re think how will Pep rotate Mahrez in next 2 games in the league?

            1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              14 days, 4 hours ago

              God only knows - no Sterling & no Sane mean he needs someone for the left - Mahrez normally plays on the right - could be another start for Mahrez or another benching, who knows!

              1. Niho992
                • 1 Year
                14 days, 4 hours ago

                I think he will need Mahrez more on the right side. Jesus can play on the left better than him.

  7. Amey
    • 1 Year
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    More than the fixture taking place this GW, I'm happy that 29 won't be a DGW (hopefully)
    Don't want more than 2 dgw's 😀

    1. Niho992
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      They can move game vs Chelsea and Arsenal in GW 34 and 37. Right?

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        No idea mate.

  8. pingissimus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    Whoops mispost.

    Paternity leave isn’t an outrageous possibility. Here’s Rooney getting it with Ferguson as boss

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/wayne-rooney-given-paternity-leave-3369359.amp

    A Champs League match no less.

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      One of the most selfish player in the league giving away a fixture against bottom team when he's behind in the golden boot race ....

      Nahhhh

      1. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        You’re right of course.

        Felt happier with Kun C Mo VC and minimal bench when match was still off.

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          GL with Kun ©

  9. El Fenomeno R9
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    Thinking about FH GW38 what you guys think?

    Should be high scoring City vs Norwich,New vs Pool,Ars vs Wat

    A lot of rotation but if there are early team news could be big swing in points

    1. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 7 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      FH better for DGW or BGW

      1. BenjoBD
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        I reckon dgw. If you can get 8 players out there with the right captain on a blank the gains you could possibly make with a free hit with 16-18 set of points in a double more than makes up for any losses. Thats my outlook anyhow.

        1. pingissimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          Mostly agree.

          But it’s quite possible to get 14-16 sets of points without FH and only using FTs. If you factor in triple Liverpool as SGW players the FH in a DGW is less compelling than it seems.

    2. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Looking at TC that week as a possible.

      FH not entirely daft. The ceiling in 31 could be very low. 34 may not be that sexy either. If it’s a minor DGW then 3 Liverpool SGW players and a smattering of DGW players from original team and FTs could be enough to make FH ceiling low. 37 - lots of time to build a team for that one and if it’s the big DGW then BB is natural.

  10. Brosstan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    Lund benchers PUNISHED

    1. BenjoBD
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      LOL

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Lundstram benchers have their PANTS pulled down and their bare BOTTOMS spanked for being so NAUGHTY

      1. Brosstan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        Buy MEMBERSHIP for ONLY £12.99 to see what happens NEXT

    3. Utopsis
        14 days, 2 hours ago

        HAHA... gotta be the most exciting GWs in a while. Absolute roller-coaster of emotions!

        Don't think we're done yet

    4. BenjoBD
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Storm Edwina set to ruin GW 27

    5. Trophé Mourinho
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        City casuals think they got away with it, wait for the Kun benching 😀

        1. BenjoBD
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          as long as he gets 0 mins i'm happy with Salah vc

        2. BenjoBD
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          that or a first half hatty

          1. pingissimus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            14 days, 4 hours ago

            Nah the 10 minute hattie from minute 75 on would be much more satisfying

      • THFC4LIFE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        City v West Ham game also on Sky, 7.30pm KO

        The rule about not being able to televise domestic games on Champions league nights was scrapped in 2017

        1. BenjoBD
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          Really? Good knowledge

        2. Amey
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          Good information

        3. Niho992
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          City played vs Stoke 3 years ago also in the night when was UCL game.

      • FPL Ultra Instinct
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        With the new fixture announcement, how likely do you think the following start this time?

        a) KDB

        b) Kun

        c) Mahrez

        1. Goonsquad245
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          90% for all

        2. BenjoBD
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          I think Mahrez is the most likely, then kdb. They don't need all 3. I'm expecting a Mahrez-Jesus-Bilva front 3.

          1. Goonsquad245
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            14 days, 4 hours ago

            Based on what?

            1. BenjoBD
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              14 days, 4 hours ago

              LOL. I hope i'm wrong as i've got all 3 you mention including Kun Captain. Its just they've got Leicester away next up 3 days later then Real Madrid 7 days later. I know which fixture i'd be sending the reserves out in. I just reckon if your resting Kun and Sterling is out that would be a likely front 3.

        3. pingissimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          How close is Sterling?

          If he could get the Leicester match then that changes quite a lot potentially for who gets which game.

          1. Goonsquad245
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            14 days, 4 hours ago

            Back for RMA

          2. BenjoBD
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            14 days, 4 hours ago

            True. He may well edge his bets over the 2 games. But they are all-in on the CL so no one should be suprised with heavy rotation next 2 games.

            1. pingissimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              14 days, 4 hours ago

              Agreed.

      • Trophé Mourinho
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          Kdb cap feels a good choice with the speculation around salah, and last game of the week. Haul incoming

          1. Niho992
            • 1 Year
            14 days, 4 hours ago

            What speculation?

            1. Trophé Mourinho
                14 days, 4 hours ago

                Paternity leave

                1. Niho992
                  • 1 Year
                  14 days, 4 hours ago

                  Lol

            2. La Roja
              • 7 Years
              14 days, 4 hours ago

              Aguero (c) says not a chance

            3. Utopsis
                14 days, 2 hours ago

                Have gone from cursing my luck / judgement / meteorology, to being pretty pleased I've gone Kun (C) KDB (VC).

                Can't bench both surely?!

                (famous last words...)

            4. Brosstan
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              14 days, 4 hours ago

              So now back to hoping Salah gets rested to spend time with the baby!

              1. Trophé Mourinho
                  14 days, 4 hours ago

                  Bizarre game, everyone hoping their own players don’t start LOL
                  Idk what I even want anymore, 11 no shows is good it feels?

                • Niho992
                  • 1 Year
                  14 days, 4 hours ago

                  Ofc he will start. 15 days without game and he will need match fitness for Atletico game. Kun C here.

                • FDMS All Starz
                  • 4 Years
                  14 days, 4 hours ago

                  Either that or get hooked at 59th min

              2. kamdaraji
                • 10 Years
                14 days, 4 hours ago

                Man City Schedule for next two weeks

                19/02 West Ham (H)
                22/02 Leicester City (a)
                26/02 Real Madrid (a)
                01/03 Aston Villa (Carabao cup final)

                Four games in 12 days

                Man City play in the FA cup on the 4th of March

                1. Niho992
                  • 1 Year
                  14 days, 4 hours ago

                  Kun Jesus
                  Jesus
                  Kun
                  Jesus

              3. FDMS All Starz
                • 4 Years
                14 days, 4 hours ago

                Surely if Pep goes with the same team he prepared for the West Ham game earlier? They probably got instructions and tactics for that game...so surely the same team goes and plays on Wednesday?

                1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  14 days, 4 hours ago

                  Have you just put the words "Surely" and "Pep" in the same sentence?

                  1. FDMS All Starz
                    • 4 Years
                    14 days, 3 hours ago

                    lol just don’t want a 1pointer from kun and Salah to grab another brace again!

                2. Tinkermania
                    14 days, 4 hours ago

                    Other factors come in because of the break.

                  • Brosstan
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    14 days, 3 hours ago

                    Makes sense. I doubt the slight difference in time between games would change much. Pep most likely had a long term plan which involved someone being rested for Leicester anyway.