FPL Fantasy Points Against – Gameweek -Double Gameweek 29 Special

Double Gameweek 29 has finally been confirmed so I’m back with a special edition of FPL Fantasy Points Against.

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For more information on the metric check out my initial article here. As always, use this as part of a well-balanced diet of numerous different statistics, rather than just using it as the holy grail. Let it help you make decisions or justify ideas, rather than placing all of your faith in it. It could be a very useful tool.

Below are the home and away Fantasy Points Against (FPA) and Fantasy Points For (FPF) tables, which I will leave here for you to refer back to if needed.

Fantasy Points Against

Manchester City

Fixtures – Manchester United (a) and Arsenal (h)

Arsenal

Fixtures – West Ham (H) and Manchester City (a)

Fantasy Points For Home & Away

We’re going to jump straight in here with the overall FPA and FPF and then look back at the specific fixtures, to try and find recommendations.

Goalkeepers

Manchester City

Manchester United are the top team for FPA conceded to goalkeepers, but Arsenal are the third stingiest team for points allowed. Ederson (£6.0m) could be worth a shout, but City are just outside the bottom five for FPF scored by keepers and are in the bottom five for FPF when playing at home, and are middling away. Arsenal have a potent attack and Man United have been rejuvenated since the introduction of Bruno Fernandes (£8.3m), so Ederson could be a tough sell, especially with Aymeric Laporte (£6.3m) out.

Arsenal

West Ham are middling for FPA conceded to keepers and Man City are in the bottom five. Arsenal are middle of the road for FPF, both home and away. West Ham are just outside the top five for FPA conceded to keepers when playing away. Man City at home give up the least points to keepers. If you’re picking Bernd Leno (£5.0m) you’re banking on a clean sheet at home to West Ham and hoping for save points away to City.

Defenders

Manchester City

Man United are not too far off the top five for FPA conceded to defenders and Arsenal are in the bottom five. Both teams are middling in these specific fixtures (United at home, Arsenal on their travels). Man City defenders are middling in terms of points scored as well, so defence, like goalkeeper, is a tough spot.

Arsenal

West Ham are not too far off the top five for FPA conceded to defenders but Man City are bottom overall for FPA conceded to defenders and also bottom when playing at home. West Ham are in the top five on their travels. Arsenal defenders don’t score a lot of fantasy points, however if you fancy a gamble, you could look at an Arsenal defender.

Midfielders

Manchester City

Man United are in the bottom five both overall and when playing at home for FPA conceded to midfielders. Arsenal are middling overall but in the bottom five when playing away, so the metric would urge caution when targeting City midfielders for these two fixtures. Rotation could also put a limit on fantasy output. However, City are the highest scoring team for FPF scored by midfielders overall and are generally fixture proof. Rotation could be an issue though.

Arsenal

West Ham concede the second most fantasy points to midfielders overall, and third most when playing away. City are middling across the board here. Arsenal midfielders don’t score a lot of fantasy points though, Nicolas Pépé (£9.2m) aside. A punt on Pépé, Mesut Özil (£7.2m) or Bukayo Saka (£4.6m) could work out.

Forwards

Manchester City

Man United are in the bottom five both overall and when playing at home for FPA conceded to forwards. Arsenal are middling both overall and when playing away. City are in the top five for FPF scored by forwards. Sergio Agüero (£11.9m) and Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) could do well here, but which one? Pep does like his rotation!

Arsenal

West Ham are in the top five both overall and when playing away for FPA conceded to forwards. City are in the bottom five both overall and when playing at home. Arsenal are top overall for FPF scored by forwards. They’re in the top five both home and away. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) is the clear pick here, as Alexandre Lacazette (££9.3) has been dropped recently, so could be a rotation risk.

Summary

I would only look at midfield and forwards here. Popular picks will be Kevin de Bruyne (£10.7m), although he seems to be suffering from a potential shoulder injury. The other two options are Riyad Mahrez (£8.4m) and Aubameyang. However, a punt on the likes of Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) who looked lively against Real Madrid or one of Pépé, Özil, or Saka could be interesting differentials.

I hope you found this useful, as a metric that isn’t well known or considered. I certainly wouldn’t use it on its own as it has hits and misses like any other, but it can help with decision making no end and it throws up some interesting points not noticed with other metrics.

Good luck with your Double Gameweek 29 decisions!