Who are the best players for Double Gameweek 30?

FPL returns on Wednesday June 17th with a double gameweek for Arsenal, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Sheffield United. With many FPL managers loading up on players from these four teams, the following team-by-team analysis will try to identify the key targets for you to consider.

Arsenal

Looking at FPL Goal Involvement is useful because it tells us if a team scores who is the most likely to be involved in the goal or the assist. For Gameweeks 19 to 29 (when Mikel Arteta has been in charge), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.1m) has an FPL Goal Involvement of 46% whereas Nicolas Pepe (£9.3m) stands at 42%. So, it looks promising for these two players in the double, but it is worth bearing in mind that Aubameyang has a goal conversion rate of 31.6% under Arteta, which is a little on the high, unsustainable side (in his Golden Boot winning season last season it was 23.4%, for instance). This said, the Gabon international has maintained a conversion rate above 20% every season for most of his career and is notorious for being a clinical striker. With regards to Pepe, volume of goal attempts is a concern. In the 7 games he started under Arteta, he has had just 8 shots in the box, just over one a game. It is a lot to ask for him to score every time with that one and a bit chance he gets in the penalty area. For those considering Mesut Ozil (£7.3m) or budget enabler Bukayo Saka (£4.7m), the underlying stats look even worse – just 3 shots in the box in 10 starts for Ozil and 1 shot in the box in 7 starts for Saka. While some may turn to Ozil for assists rather than goals (and, indeed, he has created the most chances in the team with 19), he has created just one big chance under his new manager, which doesn’t bode well for an assist or two in the double.

Man City

Looking at FPL Goal Involvement for some of Man City’s key attacking players this season and we get the following:

• Sergio Aguero (17 starts): 50%
• Kevin De Bruyne (25 starts): 43%
• Gabriel Jesus (13 starts): 40%
• Riyad Mahrez (15 starts): 39%
• Raheem Sterling (23 starts): 27%

It’s a common tale for Man City under Pep when looking at these numbers. Aguero has been involved in half of Man City’s goals, but he is not as secure a pick as De Bruyne and Sterling when it comes to starts. Sterling has nearly half the goal involvement of Aguero and it has been well documented that he has underperformed this season. He has the highest Expected Goal Involvement of all Man City players with 18.86 but has only scored 11 goals and gotten 2 total assists, which means his owners have been short-changed by the tune of about 6 goals or assists this season. However, with Leroy Sane (£9.3m) available for selection, Sterling may be freed from the confines of the left touchline and get more involved in the action in the six-yard box.

Aston Villa

Unsurprisingly, Aston Villa’s player stats are dominated by Jack Grealish (£6.4m), especially for distribution (he has created 69 chances this season, which is 4th for midfielders). He is their undisputed talisman with an FPL Goal Involvement of 44%. Interestingly, however, Anwar El Ghazi (£5.5m) is not far behind with 38% and may be going under the radar. Looking at the table below, his stats compare favourably with the more popular John McGinn (£5.4m) (who is recently back from injury) and he carries a bigger goal threat than McGinn with almost double the number of shots in the box from just 3 more starts. In just 4 starts so far, Mbwana Samatta (£5.8m) has been posting some reasonable numbers given that he is playing in a new team and a new league, while the numbers for Matt Targett (£4.4m) looking encouraging for a defender. This said, Aston Villa have conceded the most goals in the league this season with 56 and so it is highly unlikely that you can rely on clean sheet points while you wait for his attacking returns.

 Sheffield United

From an attacking viewpoint, it is slim pickings for Sheffield United players. Lys Mousset (£4.5m) has an incredible 60% goal involvement but has only started 10 games. John Fleck (£5.0m) is their joint-leading goal scorer with Mousset with 5 goals, but in  25 starts he has only shot in the box 11 times. As most FPL Managers have realised, it is perhaps better to focus on their defenders.

Discounting John Lundstram (£4.9m) (due to record signing Sander Berge casting too much doubt on his security of starts), John Egan (£4.6m) looks to carry the biggest goal threat with 17 shots in the box while Jack O’Connell (£4.7m) has the highest Expected Goal Involvement of 4.41 which has been fuelled by 13 shots in the box, 14 chances created and 6 big chances created. Dig a little deeper into the numbers, however, and these two players have a low shot accuracy (which is to be expected from headed goal attempts mainly from set plays) and a high xGI minus delta, as they have failed to deliver on their stats with just 2 total assists and no goals between them. Contrast this with Edna Stevens (£5.2m) and George Baldock (£5.1m) who have 4 goals and 6 total assists between them and, due to their superior open play shot accuracy, they appear to be more reliable in terms of actually delivering on their underlying stats (although it should be noted that Baldock appears to have been a little fortunate with an xGI Delta of plus 2.88).