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Is Timo Werner a must?

16 August 2020 25 comments
FPL_Swan FPL_Swan
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With Timo Werner‘s (£9.5m) FPL price being 2.5 cheaper than the likes of Mane and Salah should we all consider him in our FPL teams and how do we know that he’ll perform well in the Premier League? I will be comparing Werner to another striker who made the move to a top 6 club from the Bundesliga in Aubameyang. I will be looking at both players’ last full Bundesliga season by numbers. Aubameyang got off to his Premier League career to a flyer! Werner should do the same!

I’ll start off by looking at how their teams fared in their respective seasons and looking at the style of football they played.

Borussia Dortmund- 2016/17

Table position: 3rd
Goals scored: 72
Big chances created: 88
Goals per match: 2.1
Open play xG: 59.78 (underperformed by 3.78)

RB Leipzig- 2019/20

Table position: 3rd
Goals scored: 81
Big chances created: 90
Goals per match: 2.4
Open play xG: 58.65 (overperformed by 2.35)

In the 2016/17 Bundesliga season, there were 877 goals. Borussia Dortmund scored 8% of these goals.
In the 2019/20 Bundesliga season, there were 982 goals scored and Leipzig scored 8% of these goals.

Both teams scored the same percentage of goals in their seasons.

In the 2016/17 season, Dortmund played with a 4-2-3-1 or the 4-1-4-1 formation with Aubameyang leading the line. Arsenal also played the 4-2-3-1 formation when Aubameyang made the transfer which helped him fit in because he was used to the style of football!

RB Leipzig’s system this season was different from Dortmund’s one, they played a 4-2-2-2 formation. Werner played upfront with Poulsen or Schick who were both tall strikers similar to Giroud and Abraham. They used 2 attacking midfielders on the left and right which would drift in and out. Both could either play as wingers or come more inside. They also had 2 holding midfielders. As of yet we don’t know how Chelsea could line up but they could line up in a similar formation with Werner and Abraham upfront, Pulisic and Ziyech as the creative midfielders/wingers and Kovacic and Kante in that holding role. If Havertz comes in that could all change but as of now, he’s not!

Let’s look at some numbers comparing both Werner and Aubameyang.

Aubameyang 2016/17 Bundesliga season

Goals: 31
Assists: 2
Goals created: 33
Minutes per goal: 90
Chances created: 27
Key passes: 25
Big chances missed: 25
Shots on target: 65
xG: 31.14 (underperformed by 0.14)
xA: 4.5 (underperformed by 2.5)

Timo Werner 2019/20 Bundesliga season

Goals: 28
Assists: 8
Goals + Assists: 36
Minutes per goal: 100
Chances created: 61
Key passes: 53
Big chances missed: 21
Shots on target: 64
xG: 23.45 (over performed by 4.55)
xA: 9.68 (underperformed by 1.68)

Aubameyang contributed to 3.8% of all Bundesliga goals in the 2016/17 season and Werner contributed 3.7% of all goals in his season. Both contributed similarly percentage-wise to the overall goal tally.

We can see by the data that Werner is a much more creative striker than Aubameyang and is less selfish. He looks for the final pass to square it more often than Aubameyang did. We can also see that Werner overperformed his xG last season but I reckon with a creative Chelsea squad around him he could return a decent amount of goals.

Will you be considering Werner in your GW1 FPL team at a tasty price of £9.5m next season?

25 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Absolutely love the look of Werner - he's a world-class forward handed the sort of price normally handed to your Firmino's and Lacazette's. Fantastic goal scorer, with some brilliant creative talent behind him, even before you consider the arrival of Ziyech. The freakish similarities between him and Auba will never be something I'd complain about!

    Buy buy buy 🙂

    Cheers Swan!

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  2. Grimlock
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Will lamps totate him with tammy and giroud.

    Imo start on kane and if he turns out to be the real deal drop down

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    1. Jealous Viper
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Don't think he rotates with anyone. Not sure whether he plays out wide or with another 9 like giroud but I'm definitely sure he plays.

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  3. Jealous Viper
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Most likely will be in my team dependent on how the fixtures play out. I can easily see him getting 20 this season with maybe 7 or 8 assists. People say he's a Vardy type who needs space to run in behind but that didn't hurt Vardy against weaker teams this year. He's class and will score

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    1. FPL_Swan
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      He'll be in my team regardless of the fixtures I believe!

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  4. fergul5656
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Think I might take a punt on Kostas Tsimikas when he is added.

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  5. Adam @Hi_its_Adam
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    I'm choosing Jiminez at 8.5, my plan is to wait a bit and jump on him if i need to and not take the GW1 risk/punt. Not sure if sensible or overly risk averse.

    I did think about getting him in to my (heavy caveat for fixtures) team, would be greenwood -> foden and Jimi -> Werner but im just not sure that's better than what ive already got.

    https://prnt.sc/u0heqe

    Thanks for the article Swan!

    Rgds
    @Hi_its_Adam

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  6. Dr Van Nostrand
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    He's world class and outstanding value at 9.5. Foolish not to buy

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  7. P-h-o-e-n-i-x
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    I am excited by Werner's price of 9.5m. And I have no doubt that he would have scored big fpl points come the end of 2020/21 season.

    But will he start doing it from GW1? I think there is evidence in this article itself that he might take some time to get adjusted to Chelsea's formation. He will be the single striker, as opposed to being part of 2 striker formation. A wise move could be to just have someone at Werner's price point for Gameweek 1(Jesus/Vardy/Kane) and then move to Werner as soon as he hits his form.

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    1. FPL_Swan
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Good plan but you could take the risk and start him!

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  8. Uncle Baby Billy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    I'm in Germany, I've been watching Werner since he made his debut at VfB

    He's excellent, great pace, great vision, great finisher. The only (slight) concern I have with him is that his game is naturally suited to a team counter attacking at speed. When faced with a deep, packed defence and has to find space for himself he sometimes struggles.

    As to him being a rotation risk... not going to happen. You don't let Bayern Munich know that you're not interested in them just to sit on a bench in London and watch Giroud or Abraham. He'll start at least 34 games, barring injury.

    He's playing in a team full of quality midfielders, I fully expect him to challenge for top scorer in the league.

    Worth every penny, he'll be 11m next season.

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    1. FPL_Swan
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I watched every Leipzig game afer your restart over there until ours and Werner just stood out. His speed and threat was just outstanding

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    2. FPL Pillars
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Spot on baby

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    3. 3 A
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Nice . Aad him now.

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  9. Stat Sloth
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    In the second half of last season, Werner's xG/90 was 0.75.

    Not bad, but both Jesus and Aguero's xG/90 were over 1.

    Antonio, Abraham, Giroud and Vardy all had better xG/90 than Werner in 2nd half of last season.

    Not even close to essential imo, unless fixtures are golden for CHE in first GWs.

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    1. Sgt Frank Drebin
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      xG of 0.75 per 90 minutes is actually very good. In the PL only Aguero and Jesus topped that, but not playing 90 minutes every game and Jesus underperforming xG doesn't make them better FPL options than Werner imho. Tammy was close over the season with 0.73 xG but he is also quite poor finisher. If Abraham had such high xG just imagine what Werner can do in that attacking Chelsea side! The rest of the players might had better stats in the 2nd half of the season, but I don't get why to compare arbitrary only half a season...

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    2. Sgt Frank Drebin
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Werner was also 2nd best in Bundesliga (behind Lewandowski) and on par with Haaland.

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  10. Fit of Pique
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    His ownership is making him difficult to ignore. More than 1 in 3 managers have him currently and if he gets off to a flyer I don't want to be one of the managers left behind.

    Not just missing his points but also at least one transfer behind those 35% who'll be able to move quickly on other bandwagons.

    It's not just a good price point because he's potentially excellent value, but it makes a switch to practically any other striker straight forward in 1 (or max 2) transfers.

    Prefer not to start the season with players new to the league (though it paid off big time with Salah 🙂 ) but on this occasion I think I can justify the risk.

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    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      He is easy to downgrade to Martial though. But yes, if he braces in the first game, getting him even with .5 itb for Martial means early transfer which basically costs 4 pts. Kane is known to be slow starter and too expensive place holder for Werner imo. Vardy can be also hot or cold.

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  11. fuzzymike
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Oh I hate good articles like this. Just when I think I've narrowed down my team, someone writes about a player who I now want to add... 😉
    Added Werner to watchlist, will re-jig team again later.

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  12. Goodison Gladiators
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Depends on fixtures for me. Jiminez is a safer bet if both have average fixtures. Only 1mill to upgrade if he hits the ground running. I need to watch some of his games from this season too. Could put in 2 goals in week 1 by the look of the stats

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  13. jtreble
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Nice work FPL_Swan! I can appreciate the effort it must have taken to pull these stats together. GL to you in 20/21.

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  14. Lloyd_dd
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Does anyone think that Chelsea could play 4-2-3-1 with Mount behind Werner?

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  15. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    I haven't followed Chelsea closely, but Lampard said that with Giroud you have to play with his strengths. So there was no real possibility to have Giroud and Tammy on the attack same time. Yet, I see no reason why Lampard couldn't play both Werner and Abraham same time. But will he, is another question. He is at least high on my watchlist.

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  16. Cruyff's Eleven
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    What about the old principle "never pick a first timer in your starting XI"?

    I just noted some comments from Barcelona team-mates on Messi's rumoured move - the size and speed of the EPL defenders would stop such a move from being successful.

    Might wait and see how Werner adapts..

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